Intrinsic value of First Acceptance - FAC

Previous Close

$1.05

  Intrinsic Value

$2.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+138%

  Value-price divergence*

-72%

Previous close

$1.05

 
Intrinsic value

$2.50

 
Up/down potential

+138%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-72%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FAC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FAC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.17
  17.20
  15.98
  14.88
  13.89
  13.00
  12.20
  11.48
  10.84
  10.25
  9.73
  9.25
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
Revenue, $m
  0
  456
  529
  607
  692
  782
  877
  978
  1,084
  1,195
  1,311
  1,433
  1,559
  1,691
  1,828
  1,970
  2,118
  2,272
  2,432
  2,598
  2,771
  2,950
  3,137
  3,332
  3,534
  3,745
  3,965
  4,195
  4,435
  4,685
  4,946
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  455
  528
  606
  690
  779
  874
  974
  1,079
  1,189
  1,304
  1,422
  1,548
  1,678
  1,814
  1,955
  2,102
  2,255
  2,414
  2,579
  2,750
  2,928
  3,114
  3,307
  3,508
  3,717
  3,936
  4,164
  4,401
  4,650
  4,909
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  431
  455
  528
  606
  690
  779
  874
  974
  1,079
  1,189
  1,304
  1,422
  1,548
  1,678
  1,814
  1,955
  2,102
  2,255
  2,414
  2,579
  2,750
  2,928
  3,114
  3,307
  3,508
  3,717
  3,936
  4,164
  4,401
  4,650
  4,909
Operating income, $m
  -42
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
EBITDA, $m
  -38
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  4
  7
  11
  14
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  48
  54
  60
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  198
  210
Earnings before tax, $m
  -45
  -3
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -38
  -42
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -173
Tax expense, $m
  -16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -29
  -3
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -38
  -42
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -173

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  400
  469
  543
  624
  711
  804
  902
  1,005
  1,114
  1,228
  1,348
  1,472
  1,602
  1,738
  1,878
  2,025
  2,177
  2,335
  2,499
  2,670
  2,848
  3,032
  3,224
  3,424
  3,632
  3,849
  4,076
  4,311
  4,558
  4,815
  5,083
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  400
  469
  543
  624
  711
  804
  902
  1,005
  1,114
  1,228
  1,348
  1,472
  1,602
  1,738
  1,878
  2,025
  2,177
  2,335
  2,499
  2,670
  2,848
  3,032
  3,224
  3,424
  3,632
  3,849
  4,076
  4,311
  4,558
  4,815
  5,083
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.972
  0.974
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.972
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.974
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
Average production assets, $m
  13
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  155
  163
Working capital, $m
  0
  35
  41
  47
  53
  60
  68
  75
  83
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  141
  152
  163
  175
  187
  200
  213
  227
  242
  257
  272
  288
  305
  323
  341
  361
  381
Total debt, $m
  70
  126
  188
  254
  325
  401
  481
  566
  655
  749
  847
  949
  1,056
  1,167
  1,282
  1,402
  1,527
  1,657
  1,791
  1,931
  2,077
  2,228
  2,386
  2,550
  2,721
  2,898
  3,084
  3,277
  3,479
  3,690
  3,910
Total liabilities, $m
  328
  384
  446
  512
  583
  659
  739
  824
  913
  1,007
  1,105
  1,207
  1,314
  1,425
  1,540
  1,660
  1,785
  1,915
  2,049
  2,189
  2,335
  2,486
  2,644
  2,808
  2,979
  3,156
  3,342
  3,535
  3,737
  3,948
  4,168
Total equity, $m
  72
  84
  98
  112
  128
  145
  162
  181
  201
  221
  243
  265
  288
  313
  338
  364
  392
  420
  450
  481
  513
  546
  580
  616
  654
  693
  734
  776
  820
  867
  915
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  400
  468
  544
  624
  711
  804
  901
  1,005
  1,114
  1,228
  1,348
  1,472
  1,602
  1,738
  1,878
  2,024
  2,177
  2,335
  2,499
  2,670
  2,848
  3,032
  3,224
  3,424
  3,633
  3,849
  4,076
  4,311
  4,557
  4,815
  5,083
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.972
  1.500
  1.920
  2.260
  2.540
  2.770
  2.970
  3.130
  3.270
  3.390
  3.490
  3.580
  3.660
  3.730
  3.790
  3.850
  3.900
  3.940
  3.980
  4.020
  4.050
  4.080
  4.110
  4.140
  4.160
  4.180
  4.200
  4.220
  4.240
  4.260
  4.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  -3
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -38
  -42
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -173
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  21
  1
  -2
  -4
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -158
Change in working capital, $m
  35
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
Cash from operations, $m
  -14
  -4
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -123
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -168
  -178
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  17
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -141
  -150
  -159
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -201
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  151
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  16
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  187
  198
  210
  222
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  72
  81
  90
  99
  108
  117
  127
  136
  146
  155
  162
  173
  183
  193
  205
  217
  229
  241
  253
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  344
  361
  380
  400
  421
  442
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  64
  70
  75
  81
  86
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  194
  203
  211
  221
  230
  240
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  32
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -222
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  54
  54
  54
  53
  53
  52
  51
  49
  48
  46
  45
  43
  41
  40
  38
  36
  34
  32
  30
  28
  26
  24
  23
  21
  19
Discount rate, %
 
  9.80
  10.29
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.51
  13.13
  13.79
  14.48
  15.20
  15.96
  16.76
  17.60
  18.48
  19.40
  20.37
  21.39
  22.46
  23.58
  24.76
  26.00
  27.30
  28.67
  30.10
  31.61
  33.19
  34.85
  36.59
  38.42
  40.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  44
  41
  38
  34
  30
  27
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  76.1
  57.1
  42.5
  31.4
  23.1
  16.9
  12.4
  9.0
  6.6
  4.8
  3.6
  2.6
  1.9
  1.4
  1.0
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

First Acceptance Corporation is a retailer, servicer and underwriter of non-standard personal automobile insurance based in Nashville, Tennessee. The Company operates in two segments: Insurance, and Real estate and corporate. Its insurance operations are engaged in selling non-standard personal automobile insurance products and related products in over 20 states. The real estate and corporate segment consists of the activities related to the disposition of foreclosed real estate held for sale, interest expense associated with all debt and other general corporate overhead expenses. The Company conducts its servicing and underwriting operations in approximately 10 states and is licensed as an insurer in over 10 additional states. It leases and operates approximately 440 retail locations and a call center staffed by employee-agents who primarily sell non-standard personal automobile insurance products underwritten by the Company, as well as certain commissionable ancillary products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  First Acceptance (FAC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.5
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -94.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 55.6%
Total Debt to Equity 97.2%
Interest Coverage -10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Total Capital -18.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -33%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -9.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Operating Margin -10.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Net Profit Margin -7.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Effective Tax Rate 35.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -37%
Payout Ratio 0%

FAC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FAC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $389 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by First Acceptance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of First Acceptance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FAC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.8%, whose default value for FAC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of First Acceptance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of First Acceptance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FAC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FAC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for First Acceptance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for First Acceptance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FAC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FAC are equal to 3.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in First Acceptance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FAC is equal to 7.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $72 million for First Acceptance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.204 million for First Acceptance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of First Acceptance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ First Acceptance reports 2Q loss   [Aug-09-17 10:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ First Acceptance posts 1Q profit   [May-09-17 05:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ First Acceptance reports 4Q loss   [Mar-14-17 04:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Insider Buys Shares of First Acceptance   [Nov-17-16 04:42PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ 10-Q for First Acceptance Corp.   [Aug-13  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for First Acceptance Corp.   [May-14  08:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for First Acceptance Corp.   [May-07  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for First Acceptance Corp.   [Nov-06  07:08PM  Company Spotlight]
▶ First Acceptance names President Joe Borbely as CEO   [Sep-25  04:05PM  Thomson Reuters ONE]
▶ First Acceptance Corp Stock Upgraded (FAC)   [Jul-18  11:10AM  at TheStreet]
▶ First Acceptance Corp Stock Downgraded (FAC)   [Jun-03  11:11AM  at TheStreet]
Financial statements of FAC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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