Intrinsic value of First Connecticut Bancorp - FBNK

Previous Close

$30.90

  Intrinsic Value

$6.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-79%

Previous close

$30.90

 
Intrinsic value

$6.35

 
Up/down potential

-79%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FBNK.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FBNK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -100.00
  13.20
  12.38
  11.64
  10.98
  10.38
  9.84
  9.36
  8.92
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.57
  7.32
  7.08
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  0
  104
  117
  131
  145
  160
  176
  192
  209
  227
  246
  265
  285
  306
  328
  350
  374
  398
  424
  450
  477
  506
  536
  567
  599
  633
  669
  706
  744
  785
  827
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  69
  71
  73
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  86
  88
  90
  92
Total operating expenses, $m
  0
  67
  70
  74
  77
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  103
  107
  111
  117
  122
  128
  133
  138
  144
  151
  157
  164
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  208
  217
  226
  235
Operating income, $m
  0
  37
  47
  57
  68
  79
  91
  103
  116
  130
  144
  158
  174
  189
  206
  223
  241
  260
  279
  300
  321
  343
  366
  390
  415
  441
  469
  497
  527
  559
  592
EBITDA, $m
  2
  369
  420
  473
  530
  589
  651
  716
  784
  854
  928
  1,004
  1,083
  1,166
  1,251
  1,340
  1,433
  1,529
  1,630
  1,734
  1,843
  1,956
  2,074
  2,198
  2,326
  2,461
  2,601
  2,748
  2,901
  3,061
  3,229
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  157
  159
  175
  193
  211
  230
  250
  272
  293
  316
  340
  365
  390
  417
  445
  474
  504
  535
  567
  601
  636
  673
  711
  751
  792
  836
  881
  928
  978
  1,029
Earnings before tax, $m
  21
  -120
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -351
  -367
  -384
  -401
  -419
  -438
Tax expense, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  15
  -120
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -351
  -367
  -384
  -401
  -419
  -438

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,838
  2,741
  3,080
  3,438
  3,816
  4,212
  4,627
  5,060
  5,511
  5,981
  6,470
  6,979
  7,507
  8,056
  8,627
  9,220
  9,837
  10,478
  11,145
  11,840
  12,563
  13,316
  14,102
  14,921
  15,775
  16,667
  17,599
  18,572
  19,589
  20,652
  21,765
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,838
  2,741
  3,080
  3,438
  3,816
  4,212
  4,627
  5,060
  5,511
  5,981
  6,470
  6,979
  7,507
  8,056
  8,627
  9,220
  9,837
  10,478
  11,145
  11,840
  12,563
  13,316
  14,102
  14,921
  15,775
  16,667
  17,599
  18,572
  19,589
  20,652
  21,765
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
  0.038
Average production assets, $m
  19
  3,321
  3,732
  4,166
  4,624
  5,104
  5,606
  6,131
  6,678
  7,247
  7,840
  8,456
  9,096
  9,762
  10,453
  11,172
  11,919
  12,697
  13,505
  14,346
  15,223
  16,136
  17,087
  18,079
  19,115
  20,196
  21,324
  22,504
  23,736
  25,025
  26,373
Working capital, $m
  0
  -3,136
  -3,525
  -3,935
  -4,367
  -4,820
  -5,295
  -5,790
  -6,307
  -6,845
  -7,404
  -7,986
  -8,591
  -9,220
  -9,873
  -10,552
  -11,257
  -11,991
  -12,755
  -13,550
  -14,377
  -15,239
  -16,138
  -17,075
  -18,053
  -19,074
  -20,140
  -21,254
  -22,418
  -23,635
  -24,908
Total debt, $m
  29
  2,941
  3,247
  3,569
  3,909
  4,265
  4,639
  5,028
  5,434
  5,858
  6,298
  6,755
  7,231
  7,725
  8,239
  8,773
  9,328
  9,905
  10,506
  11,131
  11,781
  12,459
  13,166
  13,903
  14,672
  15,475
  16,313
  17,189
  18,105
  19,062
  20,063
Total liabilities, $m
  2,577
  2,467
  2,772
  3,095
  3,434
  3,791
  4,164
  4,554
  4,960
  5,383
  5,823
  6,281
  6,756
  7,251
  7,764
  8,298
  8,853
  9,430
  10,031
  10,656
  11,307
  11,985
  12,692
  13,429
  14,198
  15,000
  15,839
  16,715
  17,630
  18,587
  19,588
Total equity, $m
  260
  274
  308
  344
  382
  421
  463
  506
  551
  598
  647
  698
  751
  806
  863
  922
  984
  1,048
  1,115
  1,184
  1,256
  1,332
  1,410
  1,492
  1,578
  1,667
  1,760
  1,857
  1,959
  2,065
  2,176
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,837
  2,741
  3,080
  3,439
  3,816
  4,212
  4,627
  5,060
  5,511
  5,981
  6,470
  6,979
  7,507
  8,057
  8,627
  9,220
  9,837
  10,478
  11,146
  11,840
  12,563
  13,317
  14,102
  14,921
  15,776
  16,667
  17,599
  18,572
  19,589
  20,652
  21,764
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.112
  10.730
  10.540
  10.380
  10.240
  10.130
  10.030
  9.940
  9.860
  9.790
  9.730
  9.680
  9.630
  9.590
  9.550
  9.510
  9.480
  9.450
  9.430
  9.400
  9.380
  9.360
  9.340
  9.320
  9.300
  9.280
  9.270
  9.260
  9.240
  9.230
  9.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.092
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  -120
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -351
  -367
  -384
  -401
  -419
  -438
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  332
  373
  417
  462
  510
  561
  613
  668
  725
  784
  846
  910
  976
  1,045
  1,117
  1,192
  1,270
  1,351
  1,435
  1,522
  1,614
  1,709
  1,808
  1,911
  2,020
  2,132
  2,250
  2,374
  2,502
  2,637
Funds from operations, $m
  42
  212
  261
  298
  337
  378
  421
  466
  512
  561
  611
  664
  718
  775
  834
  896
  959
  1,026
  1,095
  1,167
  1,242
  1,320
  1,402
  1,487
  1,576
  1,668
  1,765
  1,867
  1,973
  2,084
  2,200
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  -366
  -388
  -410
  -432
  -453
  -474
  -495
  -517
  -538
  -560
  -582
  -605
  -629
  -653
  -679
  -706
  -734
  -764
  -795
  -828
  -862
  -899
  -937
  -978
  -1,021
  -1,066
  -1,114
  -1,164
  -1,217
  -1,273
Cash from operations, $m
  32
  577
  649
  708
  769
  831
  895
  961
  1,029
  1,099
  1,171
  1,246
  1,323
  1,404
  1,487
  1,574
  1,665
  1,760
  1,858
  1,962
  2,069
  2,182
  2,300
  2,424
  2,553
  2,689
  2,831
  2,980
  3,137
  3,301
  3,473
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -295
  -332
  -373
  -417
  -462
  -510
  -561
  -613
  -668
  -725
  -784
  -846
  -910
  -976
  -1,045
  -1,117
  -1,192
  -1,270
  -1,351
  -1,435
  -1,522
  -1,614
  -1,709
  -1,808
  -1,911
  -2,020
  -2,132
  -2,250
  -2,374
  -2,502
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -375
  -411
  -434
  -457
  -480
  -502
  -525
  -547
  -570
  -593
  -616
  -640
  -665
  -692
  -719
  -747
  -777
  -808
  -841
  -876
  -913
  -952
  -992
  -1,035
  -1,081
  -1,129
  -1,179
  -1,232
  -1,289
  -1,348
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -155
  -670
  -743
  -807
  -874
  -942
  -1,012
  -1,086
  -1,160
  -1,238
  -1,318
  -1,400
  -1,486
  -1,575
  -1,668
  -1,764
  -1,864
  -1,969
  -2,078
  -2,192
  -2,311
  -2,435
  -2,566
  -2,701
  -2,843
  -2,992
  -3,149
  -3,311
  -3,482
  -3,663
  -3,850
Free cash flow, $m
  -123
  -92
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -303
  -317
  -331
  -346
  -362
  -378
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  26
  305
  323
  340
  356
  373
  390
  406
  423
  440
  458
  476
  494
  514
  534
  555
  577
  600
  625
  651
  678
  707
  737
  769
  803
  838
  876
  915
  957
  1,001
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  401
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  322
  337
  353
  369
  386
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  503
  525
  549
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  117
  427
  451
  477
  503
  528
  554
  581
  607
  634
  662
  691
  720
  750
  782
  815
  849
  885
  922
  962
  1,004
  1,047
  1,093
  1,140
  1,190
  1,243
  1,298
  1,357
  1,418
  1,482
  1,550
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  335
  358
  378
  398
  417
  437
  456
  476
  495
  515
  536
  557
  579
  601
  625
  650
  676
  703
  732
  762
  794
  828
  863
  901
  940
  982
  1,026
  1,072
  1,121
  1,172
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -401
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -308
  -322
  -337
  -353
  -369
  -386
  -403
  -421
  -440
  -460
  -481
  -503
  -525
  -549
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -59
  211
  224
  235
  246
  256
  266
  275
  285
  294
  303
  313
  323
  333
  344
  356
  368
  381
  395
  409
  425
  442
  460
  479
  500
  521
  545
  569
  596
  624
Discount rate, %
 
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.68
  21.72
  22.80
  23.94
  25.14
  26.40
  27.72
  29.10
  30.56
  32.09
  33.69
  35.38
  37.15
  39.00
  40.95
  43.00
  45.15
  47.41
  49.78
  52.27
  54.88
  57.63
  60.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -52
  159
  142
  125
  108
  91
  75
  61
  49
  38
  29
  21
  15
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  32.6
  21.7
  14.7
  10.2
  7.1
  5.0
  3.6
  2.6
  1.9
  1.4
  1.0
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

First Connecticut Bancorp, Inc. (FCB) is a stock holding company. The Company operates through its subsidiary, Farmington Bank (the Bank), which is a full-service community bank with branch locations throughout central Connecticut and western Massachusetts. The Bank offers commercial and residential lending, as well as wealth management services. The Bank's lending activities include residential, consumer and commercial lending. The Bank's lending activities consists of the origination of one- to four-family residential real estate loans that are secured by properties located in Hartford County and surrounding counties in Connecticut. The Company offers a selection of deposit instruments, including checking, savings, money market savings accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts and fixed-rate time deposits.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  First Connecticut Bancorp (FBNK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.8
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 11.2%
Total Debt to Equity 11.2%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 5.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
Payout Ratio 33.3%

FBNK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FBNK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $92 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by First Connecticut Bancorp. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of First Connecticut Bancorp. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FBNK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.7%, whose default value for FBNK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of First Connecticut Bancorp, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of First Connecticut Bancorp.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FBNK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 17.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $48 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FBNK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for First Connecticut Bancorp.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for First Connecticut Bancorp. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FBNK stock is equal to 3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FBNK are equal to 3188.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in First Connecticut Bancorp operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FBNK is equal to -3011.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for First Connecticut Bancorp - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16 million for First Connecticut Bancorp is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of First Connecticut Bancorp at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
BHLB Berkshire Hill 41.45 82.93  str.buy
UBNK United Financi 17.92 0.81  str.sell
PBCT People's U 18.30 1.09  str.sell
PBBI PB Bancorp 11.40 2.54  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ First Connecticut: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-18-18 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ First Connecticut: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-18-18 05:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ First Connecticut posts 4Q profit   [Jan-24-18 04:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ First Connecticut posts 3Q profit   [Oct-18-17 04:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ First Connecticut posts 2Q profit   [Jul-19-17 09:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ First Connecticut posts 1Q profit   [Apr-18-17 04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ First Connecticut posts 4Q profit   [Jan-25-17 06:44PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of FBNK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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