Intrinsic value of FuelCell Energy - FCEL

Previous Close

$1.45

  Intrinsic Value

$1.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

  Value-price divergence*

+95%

Previous close

$1.45

 
Intrinsic value

$1.05

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+95%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FCEL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -33.74
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  126
  131
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  179
  186
  195
  203
  213
  222
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  207
  217
  227
  238
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  86
  88
  90
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
Total operating expenses, $m
  155
  160
  164
  168
  173
  178
  182
  188
  193
  200
  206
  212
  219
  226
  234
  242
  250
  259
  268
  277
  288
  298
  309
  320
  332
  344
  357
  371
  385
  399
  414
Operating income, $m
  -46
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -61
  -60
EBITDA, $m
  -41
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -55
  -55
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -55
  -54
  -54
  -53
  -52
  -51
  -49
  -48
  -46
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
Earnings before tax, $m
  -51
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -65
  -66
  -67
  -68
  -69
  -70
  -71
  -71
  -72
  -73
  -74
  -74
  -75
  -75
  -75
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -75
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -51
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -65
  -66
  -67
  -68
  -69
  -70
  -71
  -71
  -72
  -73
  -74
  -74
  -75
  -75
  -75
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -75

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  342
  263
  269
  276
  284
  292
  302
  312
  323
  335
  348
  362
  376
  392
  409
  426
  445
  465
  486
  508
  531
  556
  582
  609
  638
  668
  700
  734
  769
  806
  846
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  258
  263
  269
  276
  284
  292
  302
  312
  323
  335
  348
  362
  376
  392
  409
  426
  445
  465
  486
  508
  531
  556
  582
  609
  638
  668
  700
  734
  769
  806
  846
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.419
  0.418
  0.420
  0.420
  0.419
  0.418
  0.417
  0.420
  0.418
  0.418
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.418
  0.418
  0.420
  0.418
  0.419
  0.418
  0.419
  0.418
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.418
  0.419
  0.419
  0.418
  0.419
  0.419
  0.418
Average production assets, $m
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
Working capital, $m
  150
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
Total debt, $m
  101
  98
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  190
  201
  212
  225
  238
  252
  266
  282
  298
  315
  333
  353
  373
  394
  416
  439
  464
Total liabilities, $m
  168
  165
  169
  173
  178
  184
  189
  196
  203
  210
  218
  227
  236
  246
  257
  268
  279
  292
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  382
  400
  420
  440
  461
  483
  506
  531
Total equity, $m
  174
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  227
  237
  249
  260
  273
  286
  300
  315
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  342
  263
  269
  276
  284
  293
  301
  312
  323
  335
  347
  362
  376
  392
  409
  427
  444
  465
  486
  508
  531
  556
  581
  609
  637
  669
  700
  734
  769
  806
  846
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.580
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.349
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -51
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -65
  -66
  -67
  -68
  -69
  -70
  -71
  -71
  -72
  -73
  -74
  -74
  -75
  -75
  -75
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -75
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Funds from operations, $m
  -54
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -65
  -64
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -61
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -67
  -68
  -68
  -69
  -70
  -70
  -70
  -71
  -71
  -71
  -71
  -71
  -70
  -70
  -70
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
New CAPEX, $m
  -41
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -41
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
Free cash flow, $m
  -88
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -72
  -74
  -75
  -76
  -77
  -79
  -80
  -81
  -82
  -83
  -84
  -85
  -86
  -87
  -87
  -88
  -89
  -89
  -90
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  55
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  71
  56
  57
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  70
  71
  72
  74
  75
  76
  78
  79
  80
  81
  82
  83
  84
  85
  86
  87
  88
  88
  89
  90
  90
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  125
  59
  61
  63
  66
  67
  70
  72
  74
  77
  78
  80
  81
  84
  85
  87
  90
  91
  93
  95
  97
  98
  100
  102
  104
  106
  108
  109
  111
  113
  115
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  37
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -67
  -69
  -70
  -71
  -72
  -74
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -79
  -80
  -81
  -82
  -83
  -84
  -85
  -86
  -87
  -88
  -88
  -89
  -90
  -90
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  78
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  26
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -67
  -67
  -67
  -68
  -68
  -68
  -68
  -68
  -67
  -67
  -66
  -66
  -65
Discount rate, %
 
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
  25.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  24
  -47
  -44
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -33
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  54.8
  29.8
  16.2
  8.7
  4.7
  2.6
  1.4
  0.8
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

FuelCell Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, installs, operates, and services stationary fuel cell power plants for distributed power generation. It develops direct fuelcell (DFC) plants that generate electricity, heat, and hydrogen for industrial and/or transportation uses, as well as a fuel cell carbon capture solution for coal or gas-fired power plants; and solid oxide fuel cell plants for adjacent sub-megawatt applications to the markets for megawatt-class DFC power plants, as well as energy storage (reversible solid oxide fuel cell) applications utilizing hydrogen as an energy carrier. The company serves various markets, such as utilities and independent power producers, industrial and process applications, education and health care, data centers and communication, wastewater treatment, government, and commercial and hospitality. It primarily operates in the United States, South Korea, England, Germany, and Canada. The company has strategic alliances with POSCO Energy Co., Ltd.; The Fraunhofer Institute for Ceramic Technologies and Systems IKTS; and E.ON Connecting Energies GmbH. FuelCell Energy, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Danbury, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  FuelCell Energy (FCEL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -33.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 485.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 42.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 54.6%
Total Debt to Equity 58%
Interest Coverage -25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -15.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.2%
Return On Total Capital -22%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.6%
Return On Equity -31%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
EBITDA Margin -40.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.4%
Operating Margin -43.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -47.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.7%
Net Profit Margin -47.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Payout Ratio -7.8%

FCEL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FCEL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $108 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by FuelCell Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of FuelCell Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FCEL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.3%, whose default value for FCEL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of FuelCell Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of FuelCell Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FCEL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $84 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FCEL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for FuelCell Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for FuelCell Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FCEL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FCEL are equal to 39.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in FuelCell Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FCEL is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $174 million for FuelCell Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.4 million for FuelCell Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of FuelCell Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Short Sellers Continue Walking Away From Solar Stocks   [Jun-27-17 09:20AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ FuelCell Energy reports 2Q loss   [07:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Short Sellers Wading Back in on Solar, Alt Energy Stocks   [May-10-17 08:55AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FuelCell Energy, Inc. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 03:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Short Sellers Undecided on Solar, Alternative Energy Stocks   [Apr-12-17 09:00AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Amazon Deal Sends Plug Power Shares Soaring   [07:48AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ This Weeks Fuel-Cell Energy Earnings   [Mar-10-17 10:25AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Toyota Recalls Fuel Cell Mirai Cars (GM, F)   [Feb-16-17 03:39PM  at Investopedia]
▶ 3 Important Takeaways From FuelCell Energy's Q4 Earnings   [Jan-17-17 09:40AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Does Canada Offer FuelCell Energy a Path to Profitability?   [Jan-06-17 10:10AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Fuel Cell Stocks Face an Uphill Battle in 2017   [Dec-27-16 08:22AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of FCEL Financial statements of FCEL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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