Intrinsic value of FTI Consulting - FCN

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$33.72

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FCN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.74
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,810
  1,815
  1,856
  1,904
  1,958
  2,017
  2,082
  2,153
  2,230
  2,312
  2,401
  2,496
  2,597
  2,705
  2,820
  2,942
  3,070
  3,207
  3,351
  3,504
  3,665
  3,835
  4,014
  4,202
  4,401
  4,611
  4,832
  5,064
  5,308
  5,565
  5,836
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,660
  1,695
  1,736
  1,781
  1,831
  1,887
  1,947
  2,012
  2,082
  2,158
  2,118
  2,204
  2,296
  2,393
  2,496
  2,606
  2,722
  2,844
  2,973
  3,110
  3,254
  3,406
  3,566
  3,735
  3,913
  4,100
  4,297
  4,505
  4,723
  4,952
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,668
  1,660
  1,695
  1,736
  1,781
  1,831
  1,887
  1,947
  2,012
  2,082
  2,158
  2,118
  2,204
  2,296
  2,393
  2,496
  2,606
  2,722
  2,844
  2,973
  3,110
  3,254
  3,406
  3,566
  3,735
  3,913
  4,100
  4,297
  4,505
  4,723
  4,952
Operating income, $m
  142
  155
  161
  168
  176
  185
  195
  206
  218
  230
  244
  378
  393
  409
  427
  445
  465
  485
  507
  530
  555
  580
  607
  636
  666
  698
  731
  766
  803
  842
  883
EBITDA, $m
  191
  280
  286
  293
  302
  311
  321
  332
  344
  356
  370
  385
  400
  417
  435
  453
  473
  494
  517
  540
  565
  591
  619
  648
  678
  711
  745
  781
  818
  858
  900
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  221
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  116
  120
  126
  131
  138
  145
  152
  161
  169
  179
  309
  320
  331
  343
  356
  370
  384
  400
  416
  433
  451
  470
  490
  511
  533
  556
  581
  607
  634
  662
Tax expense, $m
  42
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
Net income, $m
  86
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  124
  131
  225
  233
  242
  251
  260
  270
  281
  292
  303
  316
  329
  343
  357
  373
  389
  406
  424
  443
  463
  484

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  216
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,225
  2,120
  2,169
  2,224
  2,287
  2,356
  2,432
  2,515
  2,605
  2,701
  2,805
  2,916
  3,034
  3,160
  3,294
  3,436
  3,587
  3,746
  3,915
  4,093
  4,281
  4,480
  4,689
  4,909
  5,142
  5,387
  5,644
  5,916
  6,201
  6,501
  6,817
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,009
  2,120
  2,169
  2,224
  2,287
  2,356
  2,432
  2,515
  2,605
  2,701
  2,805
  2,916
  3,034
  3,160
  3,294
  3,436
  3,587
  3,746
  3,915
  4,093
  4,281
  4,480
  4,689
  4,909
  5,142
  5,387
  5,644
  5,916
  6,201
  6,501
  6,817
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.901
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
Average production assets, $m
  127
  152
  156
  160
  164
  169
  175
  181
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  308
  322
  337
  353
  370
  387
  406
  425
  446
  467
  490
Working capital, $m
  405
  250
  256
  263
  270
  278
  287
  297
  308
  319
  331
  344
  358
  373
  389
  406
  424
  443
  462
  484
  506
  529
  554
  580
  607
  636
  667
  699
  733
  768
  805
Total debt, $m
  366
  516
  542
  571
  603
  639
  679
  722
  768
  819
  873
  930
  992
  1,057
  1,127
  1,201
  1,279
  1,362
  1,450
  1,542
  1,640
  1,743
  1,852
  1,967
  2,088
  2,215
  2,349
  2,490
  2,639
  2,795
  2,959
Total liabilities, $m
  1,018
  1,102
  1,128
  1,157
  1,189
  1,225
  1,265
  1,308
  1,354
  1,405
  1,459
  1,516
  1,578
  1,643
  1,713
  1,787
  1,865
  1,948
  2,036
  2,128
  2,226
  2,329
  2,438
  2,553
  2,674
  2,801
  2,935
  3,076
  3,225
  3,381
  3,545
Total equity, $m
  1,207
  1,018
  1,041
  1,068
  1,098
  1,131
  1,168
  1,207
  1,250
  1,297
  1,346
  1,400
  1,456
  1,517
  1,581
  1,649
  1,722
  1,798
  1,879
  1,965
  2,055
  2,150
  2,251
  2,357
  2,468
  2,586
  2,709
  2,840
  2,977
  3,121
  3,272
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,225
  2,120
  2,169
  2,225
  2,287
  2,356
  2,433
  2,515
  2,604
  2,702
  2,805
  2,916
  3,034
  3,160
  3,294
  3,436
  3,587
  3,746
  3,915
  4,093
  4,281
  4,479
  4,689
  4,910
  5,142
  5,387
  5,644
  5,916
  6,202
  6,502
  6,817
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.303
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.493
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  86
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  124
  131
  225
  233
  242
  251
  260
  270
  281
  292
  303
  316
  329
  343
  357
  373
  389
  406
  424
  443
  463
  484
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  49
  125
  125
  125
  125
  125
  126
  126
  126
  126
  127
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  303
  209
  213
  217
  221
  226
  231
  237
  243
  250
  257
  232
  241
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  301
  313
  326
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  438
  458
  478
  500
Change in working capital, $m
  70
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
Cash from operations, $m
  233
  194
  207
  210
  214
  218
  222
  227
  233
  239
  245
  219
  227
  234
  243
  251
  261
  271
  281
  292
  304
  316
  329
  343
  358
  373
  389
  406
  424
  443
  463
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -30
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Free cash flow, $m
  203
  186
  199
  201
  204
  207
  211
  216
  220
  225
  231
  205
  211
  218
  225
  233
  242
  251
  260
  270
  281
  292
  304
  316
  329
  343
  358
  373
  389
  406
  424
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -130
  21
  25
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -125
  21
  25
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  66
  207
  224
  230
  237
  243
  251
  259
  267
  276
  285
  262
  273
  284
  295
  307
  320
  334
  348
  363
  378
  395
  412
  431
  450
  470
  492
  514
  538
  562
  589
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -59
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  150
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  338
  200
  203
  206
  210
  214
  219
  224
  229
  235
  209
  216
  223
  231
  239
  248
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  325
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  418
  437
Discount rate, %
 
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  323
  182
  175
  167
  159
  151
  143
  134
  125
  116
  93
  85
  78
  70
  63
  56
  49
  42
  36
  31
  25
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

FTI Consulting, Inc. operates as a business advisory firm enabling organizations to protect and enhance enterprise values in complex economic, legal, and regulatory environments worldwide. It operates in five segments: Corporate Finance & Restructuring, Forensic and Litigation Consulting, Economic Consulting, Technology, and Strategic Communications. The Corporate Finance & Restructuring segment provides business transformation, turnaround and restructuring, interim management, transactions, valuation and financial advisory, dispute advisory, and tax services, as well as mergers and acquisitions (M & A) and M & A integration services. The Forensic and Litigation Consulting segment offers forensic accounting and advisory, global risk and investigations practice, dispute advisory, intellectual property (IP) related, civil trial, financial and data enterprise analysis, compliance, monitoring, and receivership services, as well as assistance in business insurance claims. The Economic Consulting segment provides financial, economic, and econometric consulting services; business valuation and expert testimony services; IP and international arbitration services; economic and statistical analyses services for labor and employment issues; and offers services related to public policy and regulated industries, as well as financial litigation and risk management services. The Technology segment offers e-discovery management, managed document review, collections and computer forensics, information governance and compliance, and investigation services, as well as e-discovery software. The Strategic Communications segment provides advice and consulting services relating to financial and corporate communications, investor relations, reputation management, brand communications, public affairs, business consulting, and digital design and marketing. FTI Consulting, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  FTI Consulting (FCN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.5
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.3%
Total Debt to Equity 30.3%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 5.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 7.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34%
EBITDA Margin 11%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Operating Margin 7.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Effective Tax Rate 32.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

FCN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FCN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1779 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by FTI Consulting. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of FTI Consulting. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FCN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for FCN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of FTI Consulting, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of FTI Consulting.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FCN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FCN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.9% for FTI Consulting.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for FTI Consulting. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FCN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FCN are equal to 8.4%.

Life of production assets of 31.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in FTI Consulting operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FCN is equal to 13.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1148 million for FTI Consulting - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.988 million for FTI Consulting is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of FTI Consulting at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Company insolvencies hit eight-year low   [Dec-19-16 11:11PM  AAP]
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Stock chart of FCN Financial statements of FCN Annual reports of FCN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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