Intrinsic value of Fresh Del Monte Produce - FDP

Previous Close

$42.82

  Intrinsic Value

$30.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-30%

Previous close

$42.82

 
Intrinsic value

$30.00

 
Up/down potential

-30%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FDP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.11
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,012
  4,168
  4,264
  4,373
  4,496
  4,632
  4,782
  4,945
  5,121
  5,311
  5,515
  5,733
  5,966
  6,213
  6,477
  6,756
  7,052
  7,366
  7,697
  8,047
  8,417
  8,807
  9,219
  9,652
  10,109
  10,590
  11,097
  11,630
  12,192
  12,782
  13,403
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,913
  4,002
  4,105
  4,219
  4,346
  4,486
  4,638
  4,802
  4,979
  5,169
  5,347
  5,564
  5,795
  6,040
  6,301
  6,577
  6,869
  7,178
  7,505
  7,850
  8,213
  8,597
  9,002
  9,428
  9,877
  10,349
  10,846
  11,370
  11,921
  12,500
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,767
  3,913
  4,002
  4,105
  4,219
  4,346
  4,486
  4,638
  4,802
  4,979
  5,169
  5,347
  5,564
  5,795
  6,040
  6,301
  6,577
  6,869
  7,178
  7,505
  7,850
  8,213
  8,597
  9,002
  9,428
  9,877
  10,349
  10,846
  11,370
  11,921
  12,500
Operating income, $m
  244
  255
  261
  269
  277
  286
  296
  307
  319
  332
  346
  386
  402
  419
  437
  455
  475
  497
  519
  542
  567
  594
  621
  651
  681
  714
  748
  784
  822
  862
  904
EBITDA, $m
  323
  440
  450
  462
  475
  489
  505
  522
  541
  561
  582
  605
  630
  656
  684
  714
  745
  778
  813
  850
  889
  930
  974
  1,019
  1,068
  1,118
  1,172
  1,228
  1,288
  1,350
  1,416
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
Earnings before tax, $m
  237
  235
  241
  247
  254
  261
  270
  279
  289
  299
  310
  349
  362
  375
  390
  405
  422
  439
  457
  477
  497
  518
  541
  565
  590
  617
  645
  674
  705
  738
  772
Tax expense, $m
  11
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  159
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
Net income, $m
  225
  172
  176
  180
  185
  191
  197
  204
  211
  218
  227
  255
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  334
  348
  363
  378
  395
  413
  431
  450
  471
  492
  515
  539
  564

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,653
  2,822
  2,887
  2,961
  3,044
  3,136
  3,238
  3,348
  3,467
  3,596
  3,734
  3,882
  4,039
  4,207
  4,385
  4,574
  4,775
  4,987
  5,211
  5,448
  5,699
  5,963
  6,241
  6,535
  6,844
  7,170
  7,513
  7,874
  8,254
  8,654
  9,075
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,633
  2,822
  2,887
  2,961
  3,044
  3,136
  3,238
  3,348
  3,467
  3,596
  3,734
  3,882
  4,039
  4,207
  4,385
  4,574
  4,775
  4,987
  5,211
  5,448
  5,699
  5,963
  6,241
  6,535
  6,844
  7,170
  7,513
  7,874
  8,254
  8,654
  9,075
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.524
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
  1.477
Average production assets, $m
  1,244
  1,592
  1,629
  1,671
  1,718
  1,770
  1,827
  1,889
  1,956
  2,029
  2,107
  2,190
  2,279
  2,374
  2,474
  2,581
  2,694
  2,814
  2,940
  3,074
  3,215
  3,364
  3,521
  3,687
  3,862
  4,046
  4,239
  4,443
  4,657
  4,883
  5,120
Working capital, $m
  592
  163
  166
  171
  175
  181
  186
  193
  200
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
  253
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  328
  343
  360
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  475
  499
  523
Total debt, $m
  232
  378
  401
  427
  456
  489
  525
  564
  606
  651
  700
  752
  807
  867
  930
  996
  1,067
  1,142
  1,221
  1,305
  1,393
  1,487
  1,585
  1,689
  1,798
  1,913
  2,034
  2,161
  2,295
  2,437
  2,585
Total liabilities, $m
  862
  996
  1,019
  1,045
  1,075
  1,107
  1,143
  1,182
  1,224
  1,269
  1,318
  1,370
  1,426
  1,485
  1,548
  1,615
  1,685
  1,760
  1,840
  1,923
  2,012
  2,105
  2,203
  2,307
  2,416
  2,531
  2,652
  2,780
  2,914
  3,055
  3,203
Total equity, $m
  1,792
  1,826
  1,868
  1,916
  1,970
  2,029
  2,095
  2,166
  2,243
  2,327
  2,416
  2,511
  2,613
  2,722
  2,837
  2,960
  3,089
  3,226
  3,372
  3,525
  3,687
  3,858
  4,038
  4,228
  4,428
  4,639
  4,861
  5,095
  5,341
  5,599
  5,871
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,654
  2,822
  2,887
  2,961
  3,045
  3,136
  3,238
  3,348
  3,467
  3,596
  3,734
  3,881
  4,039
  4,207
  4,385
  4,575
  4,774
  4,986
  5,212
  5,448
  5,699
  5,963
  6,241
  6,535
  6,844
  7,170
  7,513
  7,875
  8,255
  8,654
  9,074
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.129
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.673
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  225
  172
  176
  180
  185
  191
  197
  204
  211
  218
  227
  255
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  334
  348
  363
  378
  395
  413
  431
  450
  471
  492
  515
  539
  564
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  79
  185
  189
  193
  198
  203
  209
  215
  222
  229
  237
  219
  228
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  322
  336
  352
  369
  386
  405
  424
  444
  466
  488
  512
Funds from operations, $m
  341
  357
  365
  374
  383
  394
  406
  419
  433
  447
  463
  474
  492
  511
  532
  554
  577
  602
  628
  655
  684
  715
  747
  781
  817
  855
  895
  936
  980
  1,027
  1,076
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  332
  354
  361
  369
  378
  389
  400
  412
  426
  440
  456
  465
  483
  502
  522
  543
  566
  590
  615
  642
  670
  700
  731
  764
  799
  836
  875
  916
  959
  1,004
  1,051
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -156
  -159
  -163
  -167
  -172
  -177
  -183
  -189
  -196
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -322
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -466
  -488
New CAPEX, $m
  -147
  -31
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -226
  -237
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -143
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -308
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -371
  -389
  -408
  -428
  -448
  -471
  -493
  -518
  -544
  -570
  -599
  -628
  -658
  -692
  -725
Free cash flow, $m
  189
  167
  165
  165
  164
  165
  166
  167
  169
  172
  175
  171
  175
  179
  184
  189
  194
  200
  207
  214
  221
  229
  238
  246
  256
  266
  277
  288
  300
  313
  326
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -27
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -96
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -165
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  188
  188
  191
  194
  197
  202
  206
  212
  217
  223
  223
  230
  238
  247
  256
  265
  275
  286
  298
  310
  322
  336
  350
  365
  381
  398
  415
  434
  454
  474
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -84
  -35
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -259
  -272
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  153
  146
  143
  140
  138
  136
  135
  134
  134
  134
  128
  129
  130
  131
  133
  135
  138
  141
  144
  148
  151
  156
  160
  165
  170
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  147
  134
  124
  115
  107
  99
  91
  84
  77
  70
  61
  55
  49
  44
  39
  34
  30
  26
  22
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in sourcing, transportation and marketing of fresh and fresh-cut produce together with prepared food products in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Its operations are aggregated into business segments on the basis of its products: bananas, other fresh produce and prepared food. It sources its fresh produced products, such as bananas, pineapples, melons, tomatoes, grapes, apples, pears, peaches, plums, nectarines, cherries, citrus, avocados, blueberries and kiwi from Central and South America, Africa, the Philippines, North America and Europe. It sources its prepared food products from Africa, Europe and the Middle East. It distributes its products in North America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America. It markets its products under the DEL MONTE brand, as well as under other brands, including UTC, Rosy, Fruit Express, Just Juice, Fruitini and other regional brands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.8
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 20
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 12.9%
Total Debt to Equity 12.9%
Interest Coverage 80
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Total Capital 11.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Equity 12.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
EBITDA Margin 8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Operating Margin 6.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 4.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Payout Ratio 12.4%

FDP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FDP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4086 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fresh Del Monte Produce. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fresh Del Monte Produce. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FDP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FDP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fresh Del Monte Produce, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fresh Del Monte Produce.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FDP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FDP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Fresh Del Monte Produce.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fresh Del Monte Produce. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FDP stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FDP are equal to 38.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fresh Del Monte Produce operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FDP is equal to 3.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1791 million for Fresh Del Monte Produce - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50 million for Fresh Del Monte Produce is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fresh Del Monte Produce at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Has Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc (NYSE:FDP) Got Enough Cash?   [May-01-18 06:42AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Del Monte: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Big U.S. Companies Reveal How Much They Rely on Overseas Workers   [Apr-12-18 12:03AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Big U.S. Companies Reveal How Much They Rely on Overseas Workers   [Apr-11-18 08:00AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Top NYSE Companies To Buy For A Down Market   [Mar-05-18 03:05PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Fresh Del Monte Produce Announces Share Repurchase Program   [Feb-21-18 04:20PM  Business Wire]
▶ Del Monte reports 4Q loss   [06:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Blog Exposure - Fresh Del Monte Acquired Mann Packing   [Feb-08-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Fresh Del Monte to acquire California vegetable company for $361M   [Feb-06-18 02:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Del Monte posts 3Q profit   [Oct-31-17 06:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Del Monte posts 2Q profit   [Aug-01-17 10:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Value Stocks To Own As Volatility Increases   [May-16-17 05:16PM  Benzinga]
▶ Why ADM and Fresh Del Monte Are Sinking   [May-03-17 03:27PM  Investopedia]
▶ Del Monte posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 06:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ Fresh Del Monte Is Here to Serve the Best   [Mar-31-17 02:08PM  GuruFocus.com]
Financial statements of FDP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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