Intrinsic value of FactSet Research Systems - FDS

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$162.16

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$162.16

 
Intrinsic value

$132.80

 
Up/down potential

-18%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FDS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.92
  4.30
  4.37
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.91
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  1,127
  1,175
  1,227
  1,281
  1,339
  1,400
  1,464
  1,531
  1,603
  1,678
  1,758
  1,841
  1,929
  2,022
  2,119
  2,222
  2,330
  2,443
  2,563
  2,688
  2,820
  2,958
  3,104
  3,257
  3,418
  3,587
  3,765
  3,951
  4,147
  4,353
  4,569
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  786
  818
  852
  888
  927
  967
  1,010
  1,055
  1,102
  1,152
  1,160
  1,215
  1,273
  1,335
  1,399
  1,467
  1,539
  1,614
  1,693
  1,776
  1,863
  1,955
  2,051
  2,153
  2,259
  2,371
  2,488
  2,612
  2,741
  2,878
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  665
  786
  818
  852
  888
  927
  967
  1,010
  1,055
  1,102
  1,152
  1,160
  1,215
  1,273
  1,335
  1,399
  1,467
  1,539
  1,614
  1,693
  1,776
  1,863
  1,955
  2,051
  2,153
  2,259
  2,371
  2,488
  2,612
  2,741
  2,878
Operating income, $m
  462
  390
  409
  429
  450
  473
  497
  522
  548
  576
  605
  682
  714
  748
  785
  823
  862
  904
  949
  995
  1,044
  1,095
  1,149
  1,206
  1,265
  1,328
  1,394
  1,463
  1,535
  1,611
  1,691
EBITDA, $m
  500
  446
  465
  486
  508
  531
  555
  581
  608
  636
  666
  698
  731
  767
  804
  842
  883
  926
  972
  1,019
  1,069
  1,122
  1,177
  1,235
  1,296
  1,360
  1,427
  1,498
  1,572
  1,650
  1,732
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
Earnings before tax, $m
  461
  379
  398
  417
  437
  459
  482
  506
  531
  558
  586
  661
  693
  725
  760
  797
  835
  875
  918
  962
  1,009
  1,058
  1,110
  1,164
  1,222
  1,282
  1,345
  1,411
  1,481
  1,554
  1,631
Tax expense, $m
  122
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  143
  151
  158
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  248
  260
  272
  286
  300
  314
  330
  346
  363
  381
  400
  420
  440
Net income, $m
  339
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
  352
  369
  388
  407
  428
  483
  506
  530
  555
  581
  609
  639
  670
  702
  737
  773
  810
  850
  892
  936
  982
  1,030
  1,081
  1,134
  1,190

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  253
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,019
  799
  834
  871
  910
  951
  995
  1,041
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,252
  1,311
  1,374
  1,441
  1,510
  1,584
  1,661
  1,742
  1,827
  1,917
  2,011
  2,110
  2,214
  2,324
  2,438
  2,559
  2,686
  2,819
  2,959
  3,106
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  766
  799
  834
  871
  910
  951
  995
  1,041
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,252
  1,311
  1,374
  1,441
  1,510
  1,584
  1,661
  1,742
  1,827
  1,917
  2,011
  2,110
  2,214
  2,324
  2,438
  2,559
  2,686
  2,819
  2,959
  3,106
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.472
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.470
  1.471
  1.472
  1.471
  1.472
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
  1.471
Average production assets, $m
  138
  143
  150
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  225
  235
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  313
  328
  344
  361
  379
  397
  417
  438
  459
  482
  506
  531
  557
Working capital, $m
  211
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
Total debt, $m
  300
  321
  344
  368
  394
  421
  450
  480
  512
  545
  581
  618
  657
  698
  742
  787
  835
  886
  939
  995
  1,054
  1,115
  1,180
  1,248
  1,320
  1,395
  1,474
  1,557
  1,645
  1,736
  1,832
Total liabilities, $m
  502
  523
  546
  570
  596
  623
  652
  682
  714
  747
  783
  820
  859
  900
  944
  989
  1,037
  1,088
  1,141
  1,197
  1,256
  1,317
  1,382
  1,450
  1,522
  1,597
  1,676
  1,759
  1,847
  1,938
  2,034
Total equity, $m
  517
  276
  288
  300
  314
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  412
  432
  452
  474
  497
  521
  546
  573
  601
  630
  661
  694
  728
  764
  802
  841
  883
  927
  973
  1,021
  1,072
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,019
  799
  834
  870
  910
  951
  995
  1,041
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,252
  1,311
  1,374
  1,441
  1,510
  1,583
  1,661
  1,742
  1,827
  1,917
  2,011
  2,110
  2,214
  2,324
  2,438
  2,559
  2,686
  2,820
  2,959
  3,106
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.580
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.310
  1.340
  1.360
  1.390
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.560
  1.580
  1.590
  1.610
  1.620
  1.630
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  339
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
  352
  369
  388
  407
  428
  483
  506
  530
  555
  581
  609
  639
  670
  702
  737
  773
  810
  850
  892
  936
  982
  1,030
  1,081
  1,134
  1,190
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  56
  56
  57
  57
  58
  58
  59
  60
  60
  61
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
Funds from operations, $m
  382
  333
  347
  361
  377
  393
  410
  428
  448
  468
  489
  499
  523
  548
  574
  601
  630
  661
  693
  727
  762
  799
  838
  879
  922
  968
  1,015
  1,066
  1,118
  1,173
  1,231
Change in working capital, $m
  51
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  331
  374
  348
  363
  379
  395
  413
  431
  450
  471
  492
  502
  526
  551
  578
  605
  634
  665
  697
  731
  767
  804
  844
  885
  928
  974
  1,022
  1,072
  1,125
  1,181
  1,239
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
New CAPEX, $m
  -48
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -158
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
Free cash flow, $m
  173
  358
  332
  346
  360
  376
  392
  409
  428
  447
  467
  476
  499
  523
  547
  574
  601
  630
  661
  693
  727
  762
  799
  838
  880
  923
  968
  1,016
  1,066
  1,119
  1,174
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  265
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -300
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  143
  379
  355
  370
  386
  403
  421
  440
  460
  480
  503
  514
  538
  564
  591
  619
  649
  681
  714
  749
  785
  824
  864
  907
  951
  998
  1,047
  1,099
  1,153
  1,210
  1,270
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  15
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  253
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  621
  342
  357
  372
  389
  406
  424
  443
  463
  484
  494
  517
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  686
  719
  754
  791
  830
  871
  913
  958
  1,006
  1,055
  1,107
  1,162
  1,220
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  595
  314
  311
  307
  301
  294
  286
  277
  266
  254
  235
  221
  206
  191
  175
  159
  142
  126
  111
  96
  82
  69
  57
  47
  37
  29
  23
  17
  13
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

FactSet Research Systems Inc. provides integrated financial information and data analytical applications to the investment community in the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company’s applications suite offers tools and resources, including company and industry analyses; full screening tools; portfolio analysis; risk profiles; alpha-testing; portfolio optimization; and research management solutions. FactSet Research Systems Inc. delivers insight and information to investment professionals through its analytics, services, contents, and technologies. The company also provides verifying, cleaning, and loading of portfolio data across asset classes; and an execution management system through its acquisition of Portware. It serves portfolio managers, wealth managers, research and performance analysts, risk managers, sell-side equity research professionals, investment bankers, and fixed income professionals. FactSet Research Systems Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  FactSet Research Systems (FDS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.2
Price to Sales 5.8
Price to Book 12.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 84.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 20.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 58%
Total Debt to Equity 58%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 38.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.8%
Return On Total Capital 49%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.7%
Return On Equity 64.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.4%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.4%
EBITDA Margin 44.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.1%
Operating Margin 41%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 40.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
Net Profit Margin 30.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.7%
Effective Tax Rate 26.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Payout Ratio 21.8%

FDS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FDS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1127 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by FactSet Research Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of FactSet Research Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FDS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FDS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of FactSet Research Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of FactSet Research Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FDS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FDS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for FactSet Research Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for FactSet Research Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FDS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FDS are equal to 12.2%.

Life of production assets of 13.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in FactSet Research Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FDS is equal to -3.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $517 million for FactSet Research Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.658 million for FactSet Research Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of FactSet Research Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.4 billion.


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Stock chart of FDS Financial statements of FDS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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