Intrinsic value of Foresight Energy - FELP

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$4.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FELP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.07
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  876
  1,005
  1,028
  1,054
  1,084
  1,117
  1,153
  1,192
  1,235
  1,280
  1,329
  1,382
  1,438
  1,498
  1,561
  1,629
  1,700
  1,776
  1,855
  1,940
  2,029
  2,123
  2,222
  2,327
  2,437
  2,553
  2,675
  2,804
  2,939
  3,081
  3,231
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  775
  792
  813
  836
  861
  889
  919
  952
  987
  1,025
  1,066
  1,109
  1,155
  1,204
  1,256
  1,311
  1,369
  1,431
  1,496
  1,564
  1,637
  1,713
  1,794
  1,879
  1,968
  2,063
  2,162
  2,266
  2,376
  2,491
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  866
  775
  792
  813
  836
  861
  889
  919
  952
  987
  1,025
  1,066
  1,109
  1,155
  1,204
  1,256
  1,311
  1,369
  1,431
  1,496
  1,564
  1,637
  1,713
  1,794
  1,879
  1,968
  2,063
  2,162
  2,266
  2,376
  2,491
Operating income, $m
  10
  230
  235
  241
  248
  256
  264
  273
  283
  293
  304
  316
  329
  343
  358
  373
  389
  407
  425
  444
  465
  486
  509
  533
  558
  585
  613
  642
  673
  706
  740
EBITDA, $m
  174
  428
  438
  449
  462
  476
  492
  508
  526
  546
  567
  589
  613
  639
  666
  694
  725
  757
  791
  827
  865
  905
  948
  992
  1,039
  1,089
  1,141
  1,195
  1,253
  1,314
  1,378
Interest expense (income), $m
  81
  113
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  126
  130
  136
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  283
  297
  311
  327
  344
Earnings before tax, $m
  -179
  117
  131
  135
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  288
  302
  315
  330
  345
  362
  379
  396
Tax expense, $m
  0
  32
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
Net income, $m
  -179
  86
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  201
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  104
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,689
  1,840
  1,882
  1,931
  1,985
  2,045
  2,111
  2,183
  2,261
  2,345
  2,435
  2,531
  2,634
  2,743
  2,860
  2,983
  3,114
  3,252
  3,398
  3,553
  3,716
  3,888
  4,070
  4,262
  4,463
  4,676
  4,900
  5,135
  5,383
  5,644
  5,918
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,585
  1,840
  1,882
  1,931
  1,985
  2,045
  2,111
  2,183
  2,261
  2,345
  2,435
  2,531
  2,634
  2,743
  2,860
  2,983
  3,114
  3,252
  3,398
  3,553
  3,716
  3,888
  4,070
  4,262
  4,463
  4,676
  4,900
  5,135
  5,383
  5,644
  5,918
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.553
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
Average production assets, $m
  1,376
  1,507
  1,542
  1,581
  1,626
  1,675
  1,729
  1,788
  1,852
  1,921
  1,994
  2,073
  2,157
  2,247
  2,342
  2,443
  2,550
  2,663
  2,783
  2,910
  3,044
  3,185
  3,333
  3,490
  3,655
  3,830
  4,013
  4,206
  4,409
  4,622
  4,847
Working capital, $m
  -266
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  176
  185
  193
  203
  213
  223
Total debt, $m
  1,583
  1,484
  1,522
  1,566
  1,615
  1,669
  1,728
  1,793
  1,863
  1,938
  2,019
  2,106
  2,199
  2,297
  2,402
  2,513
  2,630
  2,755
  2,887
  3,026
  3,173
  3,328
  3,491
  3,663
  3,845
  4,036
  4,238
  4,450
  4,673
  4,907
  5,154
Total liabilities, $m
  1,844
  1,656
  1,694
  1,738
  1,787
  1,841
  1,900
  1,965
  2,035
  2,110
  2,191
  2,278
  2,371
  2,469
  2,574
  2,685
  2,802
  2,927
  3,059
  3,198
  3,345
  3,500
  3,663
  3,835
  4,017
  4,208
  4,410
  4,622
  4,845
  5,079
  5,326
Total equity, $m
  -155
  184
  188
  193
  199
  205
  211
  218
  226
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  286
  298
  311
  325
  340
  355
  372
  389
  407
  426
  446
  468
  490
  514
  538
  564
  592
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,689
  1,840
  1,882
  1,931
  1,986
  2,046
  2,111
  2,183
  2,261
  2,344
  2,434
  2,531
  2,634
  2,743
  2,860
  2,983
  3,113
  3,252
  3,399
  3,553
  3,717
  3,889
  4,070
  4,261
  4,463
  4,676
  4,900
  5,136
  5,383
  5,643
  5,918
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -10.213
  8.070
  8.090
  8.110
  8.130
  8.160
  8.190
  8.210
  8.240
  8.270
  8.290
  8.320
  8.350
  8.370
  8.400
  8.420
  8.450
  8.470
  8.490
  8.520
  8.540
  8.560
  8.580
  8.600
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.680
  8.700
  8.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.163
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -179
  86
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  201
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  164
  198
  203
  208
  214
  220
  228
  235
  244
  253
  262
  273
  284
  296
  308
  321
  336
  350
  366
  383
  400
  419
  439
  459
  481
  504
  528
  553
  580
  608
  638
Funds from operations, $m
  269
  284
  299
  307
  315
  325
  335
  346
  358
  372
  386
  401
  417
  434
  452
  471
  491
  513
  536
  560
  585
  612
  640
  670
  701
  734
  769
  806
  844
  885
  927
Change in working capital, $m
  44
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  225
  238
  297
  305
  313
  322
  332
  344
  355
  368
  382
  397
  413
  430
  447
  466
  486
  508
  530
  554
  579
  605
  633
  663
  694
  726
  761
  797
  835
  875
  917
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -194
  -198
  -203
  -208
  -214
  -220
  -228
  -235
  -244
  -253
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -296
  -308
  -321
  -336
  -350
  -366
  -383
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -459
  -481
  -504
  -528
  -553
  -580
  -608
New CAPEX, $m
  -55
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -225
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -48
  -224
  -233
  -243
  -252
  -263
  -274
  -287
  -299
  -313
  -327
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -391
  -409
  -428
  -449
  -470
  -493
  -517
  -541
  -568
  -596
  -624
  -655
  -687
  -721
  -756
  -794
  -833
Free cash flow, $m
  177
  14
  64
  62
  61
  59
  58
  57
  56
  56
  56
  56
  56
  56
  57
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -73
  -126
  38
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  275
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -91
  149
  38
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  86
  -112
  102
  106
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  155
  161
  168
  176
  183
  192
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  288
  301
  316
  331
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  176
  -163
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  303
Discount rate, %
 
  14.30
  15.02
  15.77
  16.55
  17.38
  18.25
  19.16
  20.12
  21.13
  22.18
  23.29
  24.46
  25.68
  26.96
  28.31
  29.73
  31.22
  32.78
  34.41
  36.14
  37.94
  39.84
  41.83
  43.92
  46.12
  48.42
  50.85
  53.39
  56.06
  58.86
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  74
  65
  56
  48
  41
  34
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3

Foresight Energy LP engages in the development, mining, transportation, and sale of thermal coal primarily in the eastern United States and internationally. It operates four underground mining complexes, including Williamson, Sugar Camp, Hillsboro, and Macoupin in the Illinois Basin. It controls approximately 3 billion tons of coal reserves in the Illinois Basin. The company sells its coal to electric utility and industrial companies. The company was formerly known as Foresight Energy Partners LP and changed its name to Foresight Energy LP in April 2014. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri. As of April 16, 2015, Foresight Energy, LP operates as a subsidiary of Murray Energy Corporation.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Foresight Energy (FELP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.4
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book -3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -23.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -782.6%
Total Debt to Equity -1021.3%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital -11.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Return On Equity 267.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 514.1%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Operating Margin 1.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -20.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Net Profit Margin -20.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

FELP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FELP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $985 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Foresight Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Foresight Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FELP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.3%, whose default value for FELP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Foresight Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Foresight Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FELP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FELP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7% for Foresight Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Foresight Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FELP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FELP are equal to 150%.

Life of production assets of 7.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Foresight Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FELP is equal to 6.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $21 million for Foresight Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 131.85 million for Foresight Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Foresight Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Foresight Energy reports 1Q loss   [06:54AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Terrible Stocks I'd Avoid   [Apr-20-17 11:27AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Reasons Deregulation Won't Save Coal Stocks   [Feb-21-17 09:52AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Foresight Energy working with Goldman Sachs on debt refinancing   [Feb-14-17 09:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Why Foresight Energy Rocketed 60% Higher in October   [Nov-07-16 12:53PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Foresight Energy LP Completes Global Restructuring   [Aug-30-16 05:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Maybe the Coal Market Isn't Dead After All   [Aug-23-16 12:15PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Foresight Energy Launches Restructuring   [Aug-09-16 02:40PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Hedge Funds Staying on Sidelines when It Comes to Coal Stocks   [Jun-11-16 06:33PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Foresight Energy LP's Shares Popped 56% Today   [Apr-19-16 05:05PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 4 Stocks That Could Lose You a Lot of Money   [09:06AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of FELP Financial statements of FELP Annual reports of FELP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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