Intrinsic value of Foresight Energy - FELP

Previous Close

$4.28

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-96%

Previous close

$4.28

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-96%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FELP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.07
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  876
  894
  914
  938
  964
  993
  1,025
  1,060
  1,098
  1,139
  1,182
  1,229
  1,279
  1,332
  1,389
  1,448
  1,512
  1,579
  1,650
  1,725
  1,805
  1,888
  1,976
  2,069
  2,167
  2,270
  2,379
  2,493
  2,614
  2,740
  2,874
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  295
  302
  309
  318
  328
  338
  350
  362
  376
  390
  406
  422
  440
  458
  478
  499
  521
  545
  569
  595
  623
  652
  683
  715
  749
  785
  823
  863
  904
  948
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  606
  621
  636
  652
  669
  685
  703
  720
  738
  757
  775
  795
  815
  835
  856
  877
  899
  922
  945
  968
  993
  1,017
  1,043
  1,069
  1,096
  1,123
  1,151
  1,180
  1,209
  1,240
Total operating expenses, $m
  866
  901
  923
  945
  970
  997
  1,023
  1,053
  1,082
  1,114
  1,147
  1,181
  1,217
  1,255
  1,293
  1,334
  1,376
  1,420
  1,467
  1,514
  1,563
  1,616
  1,669
  1,726
  1,784
  1,845
  1,908
  1,974
  2,043
  2,113
  2,188
Operating income, $m
  10
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -3
  2
  8
  16
  25
  36
  48
  62
  78
  95
  115
  136
  159
  184
  211
  241
  272
  307
  344
  383
  426
  471
  519
  571
  627
  686
EBITDA, $m
  174
  160
  162
  167
  174
  182
  193
  206
  221
  238
  257
  278
  301
  327
  355
  385
  418
  454
  492
  534
  578
  626
  676
  731
  788
  850
  916
  986
  1,060
  1,139
  1,223
Interest expense (income), $m
  81
  74
  60
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
Earnings before tax, $m
  -179
  -81
  -68
  -70
  -70
  -69
  -66
  -63
  -58
  -51
  -44
  -35
  -25
  -13
  0
  15
  31
  49
  68
  90
  113
  139
  166
  196
  228
  262
  299
  339
  381
  427
  476
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  4
  8
  13
  18
  24
  31
  37
  45
  53
  62
  71
  81
  92
  103
  115
  128
Net income, $m
  -179
  -81
  -68
  -70
  -70
  -69
  -66
  -63
  -58
  -51
  -44
  -35
  -25
  -13
  0
  11
  23
  36
  50
  66
  83
  101
  121
  143
  166
  191
  218
  247
  278
  312
  347

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  104
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,689
  1,616
  1,653
  1,695
  1,743
  1,796
  1,854
  1,917
  1,985
  2,059
  2,138
  2,223
  2,313
  2,409
  2,511
  2,619
  2,734
  2,856
  2,984
  3,120
  3,263
  3,414
  3,574
  3,742
  3,919
  4,106
  4,302
  4,509
  4,727
  4,955
  5,196
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,585
  1,616
  1,653
  1,695
  1,743
  1,796
  1,854
  1,917
  1,985
  2,059
  2,138
  2,223
  2,313
  2,409
  2,511
  2,619
  2,734
  2,856
  2,984
  3,120
  3,263
  3,414
  3,574
  3,742
  3,919
  4,106
  4,302
  4,509
  4,727
  4,955
  5,196
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
Average production assets, $m
  1,376
  1,404
  1,436
  1,473
  1,514
  1,560
  1,611
  1,665
  1,725
  1,789
  1,857
  1,931
  2,009
  2,093
  2,181
  2,276
  2,375
  2,481
  2,592
  2,710
  2,835
  2,966
  3,105
  3,251
  3,405
  3,567
  3,738
  3,917
  4,106
  4,305
  4,514
Working capital, $m
  -266
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  1,583
  1,193
  1,227
  1,265
  1,308
  1,355
  1,408
  1,464
  1,526
  1,592
  1,663
  1,739
  1,821
  1,907
  1,999
  2,096
  2,200
  2,309
  2,425
  2,547
  2,676
  2,812
  2,956
  3,107
  3,266
  3,434
  3,611
  3,797
  3,993
  4,199
  4,416
Total liabilities, $m
  1,844
  1,454
  1,488
  1,526
  1,569
  1,616
  1,669
  1,725
  1,787
  1,853
  1,924
  2,000
  2,082
  2,168
  2,260
  2,357
  2,461
  2,570
  2,686
  2,808
  2,937
  3,073
  3,217
  3,368
  3,527
  3,695
  3,872
  4,058
  4,254
  4,460
  4,677
Total equity, $m
  -155
  162
  165
  170
  174
  180
  185
  192
  199
  206
  214
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  286
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
  411
  430
  451
  473
  496
  520
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,689
  1,616
  1,653
  1,696
  1,743
  1,796
  1,854
  1,917
  1,986
  2,059
  2,138
  2,222
  2,313
  2,409
  2,511
  2,619
  2,734
  2,856
  2,984
  3,120
  3,263
  3,414
  3,574
  3,742
  3,919
  4,106
  4,302
  4,509
  4,727
  4,956
  5,197
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -10.213
  7.380
  7.420
  7.460
  7.500
  7.550
  7.590
  7.640
  7.690
  7.730
  7.780
  7.830
  7.870
  7.920
  7.960
  8.000
  8.050
  8.090
  8.130
  8.160
  8.200
  8.240
  8.270
  8.300
  8.330
  8.360
  8.390
  8.420
  8.450
  8.470
  8.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.163
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -179
  -81
  -68
  -70
  -70
  -69
  -66
  -63
  -58
  -51
  -44
  -35
  -25
  -13
  0
  11
  23
  36
  50
  66
  83
  101
  121
  143
  166
  191
  218
  247
  278
  312
  347
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  164
  167
  171
  175
  180
  186
  192
  198
  205
  213
  221
  230
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  295
  309
  323
  337
  353
  370
  387
  405
  425
  445
  466
  489
  513
  537
Funds from operations, $m
  269
  86
  103
  106
  111
  117
  125
  136
  148
  161
  177
  195
  214
  236
  260
  282
  305
  331
  359
  388
  420
  454
  491
  530
  572
  616
  663
  714
  767
  824
  885
Change in working capital, $m
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  225
  86
  103
  106
  111
  117
  125
  136
  148
  161
  177
  195
  214
  236
  260
  282
  305
  331
  359
  388
  420
  454
  491
  530
  572
  616
  663
  714
  767
  824
  885
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -164
  -167
  -171
  -175
  -180
  -186
  -192
  -198
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -239
  -249
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -309
  -323
  -337
  -353
  -370
  -387
  -405
  -425
  -445
  -466
  -489
  -513
New CAPEX, $m
  -55
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -209
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -48
  -192
  -199
  -208
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -294
  -308
  -322
  -338
  -354
  -371
  -389
  -407
  -427
  -448
  -468
  -492
  -516
  -541
  -567
  -596
  -625
  -655
  -688
  -722
Free cash flow, $m
  177
  -105
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -109
  -111
  -111
  -110
  -108
  -104
  -100
  -94
  -87
  -78
  -72
  -65
  -57
  -48
  -38
  -27
  -15
  -1
  14
  31
  49
  68
  89
  112
  137
  163
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -73
  -286
  33
  38
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
  122
  129
  136
  144
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  398
  72
  74
  75
  74
  72
  69
  65
  59
  52
  44
  34
  23
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -91
  112
  105
  112
  118
  122
  124
  126
  127
  125
  123
  120
  115
  109
  102
  97
  103
  109
  116
  122
  129
  136
  144
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  86
  6
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  38
  52
  67
  84
  102
  122
  143
  166
  190
  217
  245
  275
  308
  343
  380
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  176
  -398
  -72
  -74
  -75
  -74
  -72
  -69
  -65
  -59
  -52
  -44
  -34
  -23
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -391
  -63
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -58
  -54
  -48
  -42
  -33
  -24
  -13
  0
  14
  15
  26
  40
  54
  70
  88
  106
  127
  149
  172
  198
  225
  255
  286
  320
  356
Discount rate, %
 
  14.30
  15.02
  15.77
  16.55
  17.38
  18.25
  19.16
  20.12
  21.13
  22.18
  23.29
  24.46
  25.68
  26.96
  28.31
  29.73
  31.22
  32.78
  34.41
  36.14
  37.94
  39.84
  41.83
  43.92
  46.12
  48.42
  50.85
  53.39
  56.06
  58.86
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -342
  -48
  -41
  -34
  -28
  -21
  -16
  -11
  -7
  -4
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  34.6
  23.9
  16.6
  11.7
  8.3
  6.1
  4.5
  3.5
  2.8
  2.3
  2.0
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8
  1.8

Foresight Energy LP is engaged in the mining and marketing of coal from reserves and operations located in the Illinois Basin. As of December 31, 2016, the Company controlled 2.1 billion tons of coal in the state of Illinois. Its reserves consist principally of three contiguous blocks of uniform, thick, high heat content (high Btu) thermal coal, which are used for longwall operations. The Company operates four underground mining complexes in the Illinois Basin, including Williamson, Sugar Camp, Hillsboro and Macoupin. Its mining complexes operate in the Illinois Basin with approximately two located in Southern Illinois and over two located in Central Illinois. Williamson, Sugar Camp and Hillsboro are longwall operations, and Macoupin is a continuous miner operation. The Company markets and sells its coal to electric utility and industrial companies in the eastern half of the United States as well as internationally (primarily into Europe).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Foresight Energy (FELP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.1
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book -3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -23.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -782.6%
Total Debt to Equity -1021.3%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital -11.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Return On Equity 267.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 514.1%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Operating Margin 1.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -20.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Net Profit Margin -20.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

FELP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FELP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $876 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Foresight Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Foresight Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FELP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.3%, whose default value for FELP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Foresight Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Foresight Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FELP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 33%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $591 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FELP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Foresight Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Foresight Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FELP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FELP are equal to 157.1%.

Life of production assets of 8.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Foresight Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FELP is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-155 million for Foresight Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 139.94 million for Foresight Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Foresight Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Foresight Energy reports 2Q loss   [Aug-11-17 09:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Foresight Energy reports 1Q loss   [06:54AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Terrible Stocks I'd Avoid   [Apr-20-17 11:27AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Reasons Deregulation Won't Save Coal Stocks   [Feb-21-17 09:52AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Foresight Energy working with Goldman Sachs on debt refinancing   [Feb-14-17 09:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Why Foresight Energy Rocketed 60% Higher in October   [Nov-07-16 12:53PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Foresight Energy LP Completes Global Restructuring   [Aug-30-16 05:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Maybe the Coal Market Isn't Dead After All   [Aug-23-16 12:15PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Foresight Energy Launches Restructuring   [Aug-09-16 02:40PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Hedge Funds Staying on Sidelines when It Comes to Coal Stocks   [Jun-11-16 06:33PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of FELP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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