Intrinsic value of Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR - FENG

Previous Close

$3.95

  Intrinsic Value

$1.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

  Value-price divergence*

+425%

Previous close

$3.95

 
Intrinsic value

$1.28

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+425%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FENG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.30
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  209
  213
  218
  224
  230
  237
  245
  253
  262
  272
  282
  293
  305
  318
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  450
  472
  494
  517
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  686
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  151
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  255
  267
  279
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  442
  463
  485
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
Total operating expenses, $m
  204
  209
  214
  219
  226
  232
  239
  247
  254
  263
  273
  283
  293
  304
  316
  328
  340
  354
  368
  382
  398
  415
  432
  451
  469
  490
  510
  532
  556
  580
  605
Operating income, $m
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  57
  63
  68
  74
  81
EBITDA, $m
  11
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  85
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Earnings before tax, $m
  13
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  19
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
Tax expense, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
Net income, $m
  12
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  50
  54

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  142
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  458
  323
  330
  338
  348
  358
  370
  383
  396
  411
  427
  444
  462
  481
  501
  523
  546
  570
  596
  623
  651
  682
  713
  747
  782
  820
  859
  900
  943
  989
  1,037
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  316
  323
  330
  338
  348
  358
  370
  383
  396
  411
  427
  444
  462
  481
  501
  523
  546
  570
  596
  623
  651
  682
  713
  747
  782
  820
  859
  900
  943
  989
  1,037
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.661
  0.659
  0.661
  0.663
  0.661
  0.662
  0.662
  0.661
  0.662
  0.662
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.661
  0.661
  0.662
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.662
  0.660
  0.662
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.662
  0.661
  0.662
Average production assets, $m
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
Working capital, $m
  165
  77
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  186
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  246
Total debt, $m
  52
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  19
  24
  28
  32
  37
  43
  48
  54
  61
  67
  75
  82
  90
  98
  107
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  172
  184
  198
  212
Total liabilities, $m
  145
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  109
  112
  117
  121
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  154
  160
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  265
  277
  291
  305
Total equity, $m
  313
  228
  233
  239
  246
  253
  261
  270
  280
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  421
  440
  460
  481
  504
  527
  552
  579
  606
  635
  666
  698
  732
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  458
  323
  330
  338
  348
  358
  370
  382
  397
  411
  426
  443
  462
  480
  501
  523
  545
  570
  596
  623
  651
  681
  714
  747
  782
  820
  858
  900
  943
  989
  1,037
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.166
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  50
  54
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  38
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  58
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  29
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -79
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  -50
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  31
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  31
  4
  5
  5
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  9
  10
  9
  9
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -16
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  55
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  90
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  90
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  86
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.1
  97.8
  96.3
  94.7
  92.9
  91.0
  89.1
  87.3
  85.6
  84.0
  82.5
  81.2
  80.0
  79.0
  78.2
  77.6
  77.2
  77.0
  77.0
  77.0
  77.0
  77.0
  77.0
  77.0
  77.0
  77.0
  77.0
  77.0
  77.0
  77.0

Phoenix New Media Limited provides content on an integrated platform across Internet, mobile, and TV channels in the People’s Republic of China. It offers content and services through three channels, including ifeng.com channel, video channel, and mobile channel, as well as transmits content to TV viewers, primarily through Phoenix TV. The company, through its Website, ifeng.com, provides approximately 40 interest-based verticals, such as news, finance, automobile, entertainment, fashion, military affairs, history, and online literature; offers interactive services, including blog, user surveys, and comment posting; and operates third-party developed Web-based games on its game platform, play.ifeng.com. Its video channel services comprise v.ifeng.com vertical that offers free online video on demand, live Phoenix TV broadcasts, subscription online video services, and pay-per-view online video services, as well as sublicenses video content to third parties. The company’s mobile channel consists of i.ifeng.com mobile Website; and mobile value added services, including mobile video services, mobile newspaper service, digital books service, and mobile games services, as well as wireless value-added services comprising SMS-based, music, IVR-based, and MMS-based services. Its mobile channel also include mobile applications for various mobile devices, such as ifeng News that offers news in the form of text, image, and video; ifeng Video, which provides video news and other video content; ifeng FM that offers audio news and other audio content; and ifeng Book, which provides digital format books licensed from third-party publishers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People’s Republic of China. Phoenix New Media Limited is a subsidiary of Phoenix Satellite Television (B.V.I) Holding Limited.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR (FENG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 188.4
Price to Sales 10.8
Price to Book 7.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 77.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 90.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 16.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 4.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.2%
EBITDA Margin 9.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 2.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

FENG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FENG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $209 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FENG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FENG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FENG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $57 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FENG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FENG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FENG are equal to 6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FENG is equal to 35.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $313 million for Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70.615 million for Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Stocks To Have On Your Watch-list For Thursday   [Aug-17-17 09:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Phoenix New Media posts 2Q profit   [Aug-15-17 10:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces Extension of Loans to Yidian   [Aug-09-17 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces Receipt of SAPPRFT Notice   [Jun-23-17 08:10AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Weibo Corp (ADR) (WB) Stock Is Down, But Not Out   [Jun-22-17 01:49PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ [$$] China Bans Political Content From Three More Platforms   [09:24AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Phoenix New Media reports 1Q loss   [05:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ Phoenix New Media Filed 2016 Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-28-17 07:33AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Phoenix New Media posts 4Q profit   [05:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces Extension of Loans to Yidian   [Jan-20-17 06:15AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Phoenix New Media Ltd ADR (FENG)   [Dec-12-16 04:26PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces New Loans to Yidian   [Nov-02-16 04:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces New Loan to Yidian   [Aug-10-16 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ PHOENIX NEW MEDIA LTD Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Phoenix New Media Filed 2015 Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-28-16 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces Loans to Yidian   [Jan-28-16 06:21AM  at noodls]
Stock chart of FENG Financial statements of FENG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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