Intrinsic value of FBL Financial Group - FFG

Previous Close

$78.00

  Intrinsic Value

$219.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+181%

  Value-price divergence*

+16%

Previous close

$78.00

 
Intrinsic value

$219.46

 
Up/down potential

+181%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+16%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FFG.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FFG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.38
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  0
  766
  800
  837
  875
  915
  958
  1,002
  1,050
  1,099
  1,152
  1,207
  1,265
  1,326
  1,391
  1,458
  1,529
  1,604
  1,683
  1,765
  1,852
  1,943
  2,039
  2,140
  2,246
  2,357
  2,474
  2,597
  2,725
  2,861
  3,003
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  600
  627
  655
  685
  717
  750
  785
  822
  861
  902
  945
  991
  1,038
  1,089
  1,142
  1,197
  1,256
  1,317
  1,382
  1,450
  1,522
  1,597
  1,676
  1,758
  1,846
  1,937
  2,033
  2,134
  2,240
  2,351
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  587
  600
  627
  655
  685
  717
  750
  785
  822
  861
  902
  945
  991
  1,038
  1,089
  1,142
  1,197
  1,256
  1,317
  1,382
  1,450
  1,522
  1,597
  1,676
  1,758
  1,846
  1,937
  2,033
  2,134
  2,240
  2,351
Operating income, $m
  147
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  422
  442
  464
  487
  511
  537
  563
  591
  621
  652
EBITDA, $m
  178
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  422
  442
  464
  487
  511
  537
  563
  591
  621
  652
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  21
  40
  59
  80
  102
  125
  150
  176
  203
  232
  262
  293
  327
  362
  399
  438
  478
  521
  566
  614
  664
  716
  771
  829
  890
  953
  1,020
  1,091
  1,165
Earnings before tax, $m
  142
  162
  153
  142
  130
  118
  106
  92
  78
  63
  47
  30
  13
  -6
  -25
  -45
  -67
  -90
  -113
  -138
  -165
  -192
  -221
  -252
  -284
  -317
  -353
  -390
  -429
  -470
  -513
Tax expense, $m
  46
  44
  41
  38
  35
  32
  29
  25
  21
  17
  13
  8
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  107
  118
  111
  104
  95
  86
  77
  67
  57
  46
  34
  22
  9
  -6
  -25
  -45
  -67
  -90
  -113
  -138
  -165
  -192
  -221
  -252
  -284
  -317
  -353
  -390
  -429
  -470
  -513

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,566
  9,952
  10,396
  10,865
  11,361
  11,884
  12,436
  13,018
  13,632
  14,278
  14,959
  15,676
  16,430
  17,224
  18,058
  18,937
  19,860
  20,831
  21,852
  22,925
  24,052
  25,237
  26,483
  27,791
  29,166
  30,610
  32,127
  33,721
  35,396
  37,154
  39,002
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9,566
  9,952
  10,396
  10,865
  11,361
  11,884
  12,436
  13,018
  13,632
  14,278
  14,959
  15,676
  16,430
  17,224
  18,058
  18,937
  19,860
  20,831
  21,852
  22,925
  24,052
  25,237
  26,483
  27,791
  29,166
  30,610
  32,127
  33,721
  35,396
  37,154
  39,002
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
  0.077
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  97
  437
  826
  1,237
  1,671
  2,129
  2,613
  3,123
  3,661
  4,227
  4,823
  5,451
  6,112
  6,807
  7,538
  8,307
  9,116
  9,967
  10,861
  11,801
  12,789
  13,827
  14,918
  16,064
  17,268
  18,533
  19,863
  21,259
  22,726
  24,266
  25,884
Total liabilities, $m
  8,378
  8,718
  9,107
  9,518
  9,952
  10,410
  10,894
  11,404
  11,942
  12,508
  13,104
  13,732
  14,393
  15,088
  15,819
  16,588
  17,397
  18,248
  19,142
  20,082
  21,070
  22,108
  23,199
  24,345
  25,549
  26,814
  28,144
  29,540
  31,007
  32,547
  34,165
Total equity, $m
  1,188
  1,234
  1,289
  1,347
  1,409
  1,474
  1,542
  1,614
  1,690
  1,771
  1,855
  1,944
  2,037
  2,136
  2,239
  2,348
  2,463
  2,583
  2,710
  2,843
  2,982
  3,129
  3,284
  3,446
  3,617
  3,796
  3,984
  4,181
  4,389
  4,607
  4,836
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,566
  9,952
  10,396
  10,865
  11,361
  11,884
  12,436
  13,018
  13,632
  14,279
  14,959
  15,676
  16,430
  17,224
  18,058
  18,936
  19,860
  20,831
  21,852
  22,925
  24,052
  25,237
  26,483
  27,791
  29,166
  30,610
  32,128
  33,721
  35,396
  37,154
  39,001
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.082
  0.350
  0.640
  0.920
  1.190
  1.450
  1.690
  1.930
  2.170
  2.390
  2.600
  2.800
  3.000
  3.190
  3.370
  3.540
  3.700
  3.860
  4.010
  4.150
  4.290
  4.420
  4.540
  4.660
  4.770
  4.880
  4.990
  5.080
  5.180
  5.270
  5.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  107
  118
  111
  104
  95
  86
  77
  67
  57
  46
  34
  22
  9
  -6
  -25
  -45
  -67
  -90
  -113
  -138
  -165
  -192
  -221
  -252
  -284
  -317
  -353
  -390
  -429
  -470
  -513
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  289
  118
  111
  104
  95
  86
  77
  67
  57
  46
  34
  22
  9
  -6
  -25
  -45
  -67
  -90
  -113
  -138
  -165
  -192
  -221
  -252
  -284
  -317
  -353
  -390
  -429
  -470
  -513
Change in working capital, $m
  49
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  240
  118
  111
  104
  95
  86
  77
  67
  57
  46
  34
  22
  9
  -6
  -25
  -45
  -67
  -90
  -113
  -138
  -165
  -192
  -221
  -252
  -284
  -317
  -353
  -390
  -429
  -470
  -513
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -388
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -148
  118
  111
  104
  95
  86
  77
  67
  57
  46
  34
  22
  9
  -6
  -25
  -45
  -67
  -90
  -113
  -138
  -165
  -192
  -221
  -252
  -284
  -317
  -353
  -390
  -429
  -470
  -513
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  340
  389
  411
  434
  458
  484
  510
  537
  566
  596
  628
  661
  695
  731
  769
  809
  851
  894
  940
  988
  1,038
  1,091
  1,146
  1,204
  1,265
  1,329
  1,396
  1,467
  1,541
  1,618
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  5
  19
  34
  50
  67
  84
  104
  129
  154
  181
  210
  240
  271
  304
  339
  376
  414
  454
  497
  541
  588
  637
  688
  742
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  244
  340
  389
  411
  434
  458
  484
  515
  556
  600
  646
  695
  745
  799
  860
  923
  990
  1,061
  1,134
  1,211
  1,292
  1,377
  1,467
  1,560
  1,658
  1,762
  1,870
  1,984
  2,104
  2,229
  2,360
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  96
  458
  500
  515
  529
  545
  561
  582
  614
  646
  681
  717
  754
  794
  835
  878
  923
  971
  1,021
  1,073
  1,128
  1,185
  1,245
  1,308
  1,375
  1,444
  1,517
  1,594
  1,674
  1,759
  1,847
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -54
  -46
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -104
  -129
  -154
  -181
  -210
  -240
  -271
  -304
  -339
  -376
  -414
  -454
  -497
  -541
  -588
  -637
  -688
  -742
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  412
  445
  456
  468
  480
  492
  510
  537
  566
  596
  628
  661
  690
  706
  724
  742
  761
  781
  802
  823
  846
  870
  895
  921
  948
  976
  1,006
  1,038
  1,071
  1,105
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  395
  408
  397
  385
  372
  357
  345
  336
  325
  313
  298
  282
  262
  237
  213
  189
  166
  144
  123
  105
  87
  72
  59
  47
  37
  28
  22
  16
  12
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.1
  97.9
  96.2
  94.1
  91.7
  89.0
  85.8
  82.3
  78.6
  74.7
  70.7
  66.7
  62.6
  58.5
  54.5
  50.6
  46.8
  43.2
  39.8
  36.5
  33.4
  30.5
  27.7

FBL Financial Group, Inc. sells individual life insurance and annuity products under the brand name of Farm Bureau Financial Services. The Company's segments are Annuity Segment, which sells a variety of traditional annuity products; Life Insurance Segment, which sells a range of traditional and universal life insurance products, and Corporate and Other segment, which provides various support operations, corporate capital and other product lines. It also offers life and annuity products through its subsidiary, Greenfields Life Insurance Company. Its other subsidiaries support various functional areas and affiliates by providing investment advisory and marketing and distribution services. It manages all aspects of two Farm Bureau affiliated property-casualty insurance companies, Farm Bureau Property & Casualty Insurance Company and Western Agricultural Insurance Company.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  FBL Financial Group (FFG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.1
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 8.2%
Total Debt to Equity 8.2%
Interest Coverage 29
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital 8.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Equity 9.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 24.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.1%
Operating Margin 20%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Net Profit Margin 14.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Effective Tax Rate 32.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.8%
Payout Ratio 86%

FFG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FFG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $734 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by FBL Financial Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of FBL Financial Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FFG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FFG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of FBL Financial Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of FBL Financial Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FFG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FFG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.8% for FBL Financial Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for FBL Financial Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FFG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FFG are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in FBL Financial Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FFG is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1188 million for FBL Financial Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.946 million for FBL Financial Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of FBL Financial Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ At $67.9, Is It Time To Buy FBL Financial Group Inc (FFG)?   [Sep-10-17 09:08PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ FBL Financial Group Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-24-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for August 18th   [Aug-18-17 09:53AM  Zacks]
▶ FBL Financial posts 2Q profit   [03:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ FBL Financial Group Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ FBL Financial posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 07:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ FBL Financial Group Presents 2016 Annual Report   [Mar-31-17 09:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ FBL Financial posts 4Q profit   [Feb-09-17 05:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is FBL Financial Group (FFG) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-19-16 06:06AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ FBL Financial Group Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-16-16 04:47PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of FFG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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