Intrinsic value of Frank's International - FI

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  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -49.95
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  488
  498
  509
  522
  537
  553
  571
  591
  612
  634
  659
  685
  712
  742
  774
  807
  842
  880
  919
  961
  1,005
  1,052
  1,101
  1,153
  1,207
  1,265
  1,325
  1,389
  1,456
  1,527
  1,601
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  169
  172
  176
  180
  185
  191
  196
  203
  209
  217
  203
  211
  220
  230
  239
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  327
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
  453
  475
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  524
  537
  550
  564
  578
  593
  607
  623
  638
  654
  670
  687
  704
  722
  740
  759
  778
  797
  817
  837
  858
  880
  902
  924
  947
  971
  995
  1,020
  1,046
  1,072
Total operating expenses, $m
  665
  693
  709
  726
  744
  763
  784
  803
  826
  847
  871
  873
  898
  924
  952
  979
  1,009
  1,039
  1,070
  1,102
  1,135
  1,170
  1,207
  1,244
  1,282
  1,322
  1,364
  1,407
  1,452
  1,499
  1,547
Operating income, $m
  -177
  -195
  -200
  -204
  -208
  -210
  -212
  -213
  -214
  -213
  -212
  -189
  -186
  -183
  -178
  -173
  -166
  -159
  -151
  -141
  -130
  -119
  -105
  -91
  -75
  -58
  -39
  -18
  4
  28
  54
EBITDA, $m
  -63
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -80
  -79
  -77
  -75
  -71
  -66
  -60
  -53
  -44
  -35
  -24
  -12
  1
  16
  32
  50
  70
  91
  114
  138
  165
  194
  225
  258
  293
  332
  372
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  -182
  -195
  -200
  -204
  -208
  -211
  -213
  -215
  -216
  -216
  -215
  -192
  -190
  -187
  -183
  -178
  -173
  -166
  -158
  -150
  -140
  -129
  -117
  -103
  -88
  -72
  -54
  -35
  -14
  9
  33
Tax expense, $m
  -26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  9
Net income, $m
  -135
  -195
  -200
  -204
  -208
  -211
  -213
  -215
  -216
  -216
  -215
  -192
  -190
  -187
  -183
  -178
  -173
  -166
  -158
  -150
  -140
  -129
  -117
  -103
  -88
  -72
  -54
  -35
  -14
  6
  24

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  320
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,588
  1,293
  1,323
  1,357
  1,395
  1,437
  1,483
  1,534
  1,589
  1,648
  1,711
  1,778
  1,851
  1,927
  2,009
  2,096
  2,188
  2,285
  2,388
  2,496
  2,611
  2,732
  2,860
  2,994
  3,136
  3,285
  3,442
  3,608
  3,782
  3,965
  4,158
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,268
  1,293
  1,323
  1,357
  1,395
  1,437
  1,483
  1,534
  1,589
  1,648
  1,711
  1,778
  1,851
  1,927
  2,009
  2,096
  2,188
  2,285
  2,388
  2,496
  2,611
  2,732
  2,860
  2,994
  3,136
  3,285
  3,442
  3,608
  3,782
  3,965
  4,158
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
Average production assets, $m
  631
  644
  658
  675
  694
  715
  738
  764
  791
  820
  852
  885
  921
  960
  1,000
  1,043
  1,089
  1,137
  1,189
  1,243
  1,300
  1,360
  1,424
  1,491
  1,561
  1,635
  1,714
  1,796
  1,883
  1,974
  2,070
Working capital, $m
  541
  225
  231
  237
  243
  251
  259
  268
  277
  287
  298
  310
  323
  336
  350
  366
  382
  398
  416
  435
  455
  476
  499
  522
  547
  573
  600
  629
  660
  692
  725
Total debt, $m
  0
  5
  11
  19
  27
  36
  46
  57
  69
  82
  96
  111
  126
  143
  161
  180
  200
  221
  244
  267
  292
  319
  346
  376
  407
  439
  473
  510
  547
  587
  629
Total liabilities, $m
  277
  282
  288
  296
  304
  313
  323
  334
  346
  359
  373
  388
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  498
  521
  544
  569
  596
  623
  653
  684
  716
  750
  787
  824
  864
  906
Total equity, $m
  1,311
  1,011
  1,034
  1,061
  1,091
  1,124
  1,160
  1,200
  1,242
  1,288
  1,338
  1,391
  1,447
  1,507
  1,571
  1,639
  1,711
  1,787
  1,867
  1,952
  2,042
  2,136
  2,236
  2,342
  2,452
  2,569
  2,692
  2,821
  2,958
  3,101
  3,251
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,588
  1,293
  1,322
  1,357
  1,395
  1,437
  1,483
  1,534
  1,588
  1,647
  1,711
  1,779
  1,850
  1,927
  2,009
  2,096
  2,188
  2,285
  2,388
  2,496
  2,611
  2,732
  2,859
  2,995
  3,136
  3,285
  3,442
  3,608
  3,782
  3,965
  4,157
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782
  0.782

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -135
  -195
  -200
  -204
  -208
  -211
  -213
  -215
  -216
  -216
  -215
  -192
  -190
  -187
  -183
  -178
  -173
  -166
  -158
  -150
  -140
  -129
  -117
  -103
  -88
  -72
  -54
  -35
  -14
  6
  24
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  120
  122
  125
  128
  131
  135
  139
  143
  147
  152
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  276
  290
  304
  318
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -75
  -78
  -79
  -80
  -80
  -79
  -76
  -73
  -68
  -63
  -56
  -48
  -39
  -29
  -18
  -5
  9
  25
  42
  60
  80
  102
  126
  152
  179
  209
  241
  276
  310
  343
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  -11
  -98
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -87
  -87
  -85
  -82
  -79
  -74
  -68
  -61
  -53
  -43
  -33
  -21
  -8
  7
  23
  40
  59
  80
  103
  127
  153
  182
  212
  245
  278
  309
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -97
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -117
  -122
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -276
  -290
  -304
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -179
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -151
  -157
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -197
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -260
  -273
  -286
  -300
  -314
  -330
  -346
  -363
  -381
  -400
Free cash flow, $m
  -190
  -208
  -197
  -204
  -210
  -215
  -220
  -224
  -227
  -230
  -231
  -233
  -233
  -233
  -232
  -230
  -227
  -224
  -219
  -214
  -208
  -201
  -193
  -183
  -173
  -161
  -148
  -134
  -118
  -103
  -90
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  213
  223
  231
  239
  246
  252
  258
  263
  267
  271
  274
  276
  278
  279
  279
  279
  277
  276
  273
  269
  265
  259
  253
  245
  237
  227
  216
  206
  199
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -18
  5
  219
  230
  239
  248
  256
  263
  270
  276
  281
  286
  290
  293
  296
  298
  299
  300
  299
  300
  298
  295
  293
  288
  284
  278
  271
  263
  254
  246
  241
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -204
  -203
  -190
  -196
  -201
  -206
  -210
  -213
  -215
  -217
  -218
  -218
  -217
  -216
  -214
  -211
  -207
  -203
  -197
  -191
  -183
  -174
  -165
  -154
  -142
  -128
  -114
  -98
  -80
  -63
  -48
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -100
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  320
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  97
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  93
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  86.2
  74.0
  63.5
  54.4
  46.6
  40.0
  34.4
  29.6
  25.6
  22.2
  19.3
  16.8
  14.8
  13.0
  11.5
  10.2
  9.2
  8.2
  7.4
  6.8
  6.2
  5.7
  5.3
  4.9
  4.6
  4.3
  4.0
  3.8
  3.7

Frank’s International N.V. provides various engineered tubular services for the oil and gas exploration and production companies in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: International Services, U.S. Services, Tubular Sales, and Blackhawk. Its tubular services include the handling and installation of multiple joints of pipe to establish a cased wellbore; and the installation of smaller diameter pipe inside a cased wellbore to provide a conduit for produced oil and gas to reach the surface. The company also designs, manufactures, sells, and distributes outside diameter (OD) pipes, connectors, and casing attachments; and provides specialized fabrication and welding services in support of deep water projects, including drilling and production risers, flowlines and pipeline end terminations, and long length tubulars for use as caissons or pilings. In addition, it distributes OD pipes manufactured by third parties; and offers well construction and well intervention rental equipment, services, and products. Frank’s International N.V. was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Frank's International (FI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13.2
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -161.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -33.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -49.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -58%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -25.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital -10.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Equity -10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54%
EBITDA Margin -13.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Operating Margin -36.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -37.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Net Profit Margin -27.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
Payout Ratio -58.5%

FI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $488 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Frank's International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Frank's International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Frank's International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Frank's International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 34%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $511 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Frank's International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Frank's International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FI are equal to 129.3%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Frank's International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FI is equal to 45.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1311 million for Frank's International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 215.574 million for Frank's International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Frank's International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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Stock chart of FI Financial statements of FI Annual reports of FI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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