Intrinsic value of Fortress Investment Group Cl A - FIG

Previous Close

$7.97

  Intrinsic Value

$6.66

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-16%

  Value-price divergence*

-87%

Previous close

$7.97

 
Intrinsic value

$6.66

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-87%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FIG.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FIG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.18
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,139
  1,162
  1,189
  1,219
  1,253
  1,291
  1,333
  1,378
  1,428
  1,481
  1,537
  1,598
  1,663
  1,732
  1,805
  1,883
  1,966
  2,053
  2,146
  2,243
  2,346
  2,455
  2,570
  2,691
  2,818
  2,952
  3,093
  3,242
  3,399
  3,563
  3,736
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,007
  1,030
  1,057
  1,087
  1,120
  1,156
  1,195
  1,238
  1,284
  1,333
  1,386
  1,442
  1,502
  1,565
  1,633
  1,704
  1,780
  1,860
  1,945
  2,034
  2,129
  2,228
  2,333
  2,443
  2,560
  2,682
  2,811
  2,947
  3,089
  3,239
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  951
  1,007
  1,030
  1,057
  1,087
  1,120
  1,156
  1,195
  1,238
  1,284
  1,333
  1,386
  1,442
  1,502
  1,565
  1,633
  1,704
  1,780
  1,860
  1,945
  2,034
  2,129
  2,228
  2,333
  2,443
  2,560
  2,682
  2,811
  2,947
  3,089
  3,239
Operating income, $m
  188
  155
  158
  162
  167
  172
  177
  183
  190
  197
  204
  213
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  327
  342
  358
  375
  393
  411
  431
  452
  474
  497
EBITDA, $m
  211
  155
  158
  162
  167
  172
  177
  183
  190
  197
  204
  213
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  327
  342
  358
  375
  393
  411
  431
  452
  474
  497
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  25
  28
  32
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  163
  174
Earnings before tax, $m
  209
  146
  148
  151
  153
  156
  159
  162
  165
  169
  173
  177
  182
  186
  191
  197
  202
  208
  215
  221
  228
  236
  243
  252
  260
  270
  279
  289
  300
  311
  323
Tax expense, $m
  28
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
Net income, $m
  94
  106
  108
  110
  112
  114
  116
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  133
  136
  140
  144
  148
  152
  157
  162
  167
  172
  178
  184
  190
  197
  204
  211
  219
  227
  236

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  397
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,201
  1,841
  1,884
  1,932
  1,986
  2,046
  2,113
  2,185
  2,262
  2,346
  2,436
  2,533
  2,635
  2,745
  2,861
  2,985
  3,115
  3,254
  3,400
  3,555
  3,718
  3,891
  4,072
  4,264
  4,466
  4,679
  4,902
  5,138
  5,386
  5,647
  5,921
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,804
  1,841
  1,884
  1,932
  1,986
  2,046
  2,113
  2,185
  2,262
  2,346
  2,436
  2,533
  2,635
  2,745
  2,861
  2,985
  3,115
  3,254
  3,400
  3,555
  3,718
  3,891
  4,072
  4,264
  4,466
  4,679
  4,902
  5,138
  5,386
  5,647
  5,921
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -405
  -415
  -425
  -437
  -451
  -465
  -481
  -498
  -517
  -537
  -558
  -580
  -604
  -630
  -657
  -686
  -717
  -749
  -783
  -819
  -857
  -897
  -939
  -983
  -1,030
  -1,080
  -1,131
  -1,186
  -1,244
  -1,304
Total debt, $m
  183
  203
  241
  285
  334
  388
  447
  512
  582
  658
  739
  825
  918
  1,016
  1,121
  1,232
  1,350
  1,474
  1,606
  1,746
  1,893
  2,048
  2,211
  2,384
  2,565
  2,757
  2,958
  3,170
  3,393
  3,628
  3,875
Total liabilities, $m
  1,637
  1,657
  1,695
  1,739
  1,788
  1,842
  1,901
  1,966
  2,036
  2,112
  2,193
  2,279
  2,372
  2,470
  2,575
  2,686
  2,804
  2,928
  3,060
  3,200
  3,347
  3,502
  3,665
  3,838
  4,019
  4,211
  4,412
  4,624
  4,847
  5,082
  5,329
Total equity, $m
  564
  184
  188
  193
  199
  205
  211
  218
  226
  235
  244
  253
  264
  274
  286
  298
  312
  325
  340
  356
  372
  389
  407
  426
  447
  468
  490
  514
  539
  565
  592
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,201
  1,841
  1,883
  1,932
  1,987
  2,047
  2,112
  2,184
  2,262
  2,347
  2,437
  2,532
  2,636
  2,744
  2,861
  2,984
  3,116
  3,253
  3,400
  3,556
  3,719
  3,891
  4,072
  4,264
  4,466
  4,679
  4,902
  5,138
  5,386
  5,647
  5,921
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.324
  1.100
  1.280
  1.470
  1.680
  1.900
  2.120
  2.340
  2.570
  2.800
  3.030
  3.260
  3.480
  3.700
  3.920
  4.130
  4.330
  4.530
  4.720
  4.910
  5.090
  5.260
  5.430
  5.590
  5.740
  5.890
  6.030
  6.170
  6.300
  6.430
  6.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.093
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  94
  106
  108
  110
  112
  114
  116
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  133
  136
  140
  144
  148
  152
  157
  162
  167
  172
  178
  184
  190
  197
  204
  211
  219
  227
  236
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  410
  106
  108
  110
  112
  114
  116
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  133
  136
  140
  144
  148
  152
  157
  162
  167
  172
  178
  184
  190
  197
  204
  211
  219
  227
  236
Change in working capital, $m
  155
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
Cash from operations, $m
  255
  114
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  146
  150
  155
  160
  165
  171
  176
  183
  189
  196
  203
  210
  218
  226
  235
  244
  253
  263
  273
  284
  296
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  194
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  449
  114
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  146
  150
  155
  160
  165
  171
  176
  183
  189
  196
  203
  210
  218
  226
  235
  244
  253
  263
  273
  284
  296
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -48
  20
  38
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  172
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -289
  20
  38
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  172
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  160
  134
  156
  164
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  248
  259
  270
  282
  294
  307
  321
  335
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  435
  455
  475
  497
  519
  543
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  7
  -17
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  397
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  514
  151
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  237
  248
  258
  269
  281
  293
  306
  319
  333
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  432
  452
  472
  493
  516
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  493
  139
  139
  138
  136
  133
  129
  125
  120
  114
  108
  101
  94
  87
  79
  71
  64
  56
  49
  42
  36
  30
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Fortress Investment Group LLC (Fortress) is an investment management firm. The Company operates through segments, including private equity funds, permanent capital vehicles, credit hedge funds, credit PE funds, liquid hedge funds and Logan Circle. Its business is to sponsor the formation of, and provide investment management services for, various investment funds, permanent capital vehicles and related managed accounts (the Fortress Funds). Fortress's sources of income from the Fortress Funds are management fees, incentive income and investment income on its investments in the funds. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's private equity business manages approximately $13.5 billion of assets under management (AUM); credit funds business manages approximately $18.1 billion of AUM; liquid hedge funds business manages over $4.6 billion of AUM, and Logan Circle business manages approximately $33.4 billion of AUM.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fortress Investment Group Cl A (FIG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.7
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -46.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 32.4%
Total Debt to Equity 32.4%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital 12.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Return On Equity 16.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 99%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 99.4%
EBITDA Margin 21.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Operating Margin 16.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Net Profit Margin 8.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Effective Tax Rate 13.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Payout Ratio 109.6%

FIG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FIG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1139 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fortress Investment Group Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fortress Investment Group Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FIG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FIG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fortress Investment Group Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fortress Investment Group Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FIG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FIG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.8% for Fortress Investment Group Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fortress Investment Group Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FIG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FIG are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fortress Investment Group Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FIG is equal to -34.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $564 million for Fortress Investment Group Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 388.959 million for Fortress Investment Group Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fortress Investment Group Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Fortress Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [08:03AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vannin Capital launches an office in NYC   [Aug-01-17 12:12PM  Marketwired]
▶ Fortress to Acquire Colony American Finance, LLC   [Jul-18-17 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ MetLife CIO Sees Logan Circle Deal as 'Jump Start'   [Jul-11-17 12:42PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Northridge Capital Announces Groundbreaking for W Aspen   [Jun-08-17 11:46AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Fortress Raises $590 million for Secured Lending Fund   [May-03-17 04:40PM  Business Wire]
▶ Mexico drives a train through Trump border wall   [Mar-29-17 11:51AM  Investopedia]
▶ Fortress Announces Release of 2016 K-1 Tax Packages   [Mar-27-17 04:33PM  Business Wire]
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▶ SoftBank Close To $1.7 Billion Investment In Intelsat   [Feb-27-17 09:30PM  at Barrons.com]
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▶ [$$] Listed hedge funds: rescue me   [Feb-20-17 12:42PM  at Financial Times]
▶ [$$] Week in Review, February 18   [Feb-17-17 05:10PM  at Financial Times]
▶ [$$] Behind the Fortress Deal: A Japanese Billionaire's Huge Ambitions   [Feb-15-17 08:30PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of FIG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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