Intrinsic value of Fitbit - FIT

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$5.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FIT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.74
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,169
  2,212
  2,263
  2,321
  2,387
  2,459
  2,538
  2,625
  2,719
  2,819
  2,928
  3,043
  3,167
  3,298
  3,438
  3,586
  3,744
  3,910
  4,086
  4,272
  4,468
  4,675
  4,894
  5,124
  5,366
  5,622
  5,891
  6,174
  6,472
  6,785
  7,115
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,799
  1,840
  1,887
  1,940
  1,999
  2,063
  2,133
  2,209
  2,291
  2,378
  2,467
  2,567
  2,674
  2,787
  2,907
  3,035
  3,170
  3,312
  3,463
  3,622
  3,790
  3,967
  4,154
  4,350
  4,557
  4,775
  5,005
  5,246
  5,500
  5,768
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,282
  1,799
  1,840
  1,887
  1,940
  1,999
  2,063
  2,133
  2,209
  2,291
  2,378
  2,467
  2,567
  2,674
  2,787
  2,907
  3,035
  3,170
  3,312
  3,463
  3,622
  3,790
  3,967
  4,154
  4,350
  4,557
  4,775
  5,005
  5,246
  5,500
  5,768
Operating income, $m
  -112
  414
  423
  434
  447
  461
  476
  492
  510
  529
  549
  576
  600
  625
  651
  679
  709
  740
  774
  809
  846
  885
  927
  970
  1,016
  1,064
  1,115
  1,169
  1,225
  1,285
  1,347
EBITDA, $m
  -74
  427
  437
  448
  461
  475
  490
  507
  525
  545
  565
  588
  612
  637
  664
  693
  723
  755
  789
  825
  863
  903
  945
  990
  1,037
  1,086
  1,138
  1,192
  1,250
  1,311
  1,374
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
Earnings before tax, $m
  -109
  414
  423
  433
  445
  458
  472
  487
  504
  521
  541
  566
  588
  611
  636
  662
  690
  719
  751
  783
  818
  855
  893
  934
  977
  1,022
  1,070
  1,120
  1,172
  1,228
  1,286
Tax expense, $m
  -6
  112
  114
  117
  120
  124
  127
  132
  136
  141
  146
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  317
  332
  347
Net income, $m
  -103
  302
  309
  316
  325
  334
  344
  356
  368
  381
  395
  413
  429
  446
  464
  483
  504
  525
  548
  572
  597
  624
  652
  682
  713
  746
  781
  817
  856
  896
  939

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  706
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,820
  1,136
  1,162
  1,192
  1,226
  1,263
  1,304
  1,348
  1,396
  1,448
  1,504
  1,563
  1,627
  1,694
  1,766
  1,842
  1,923
  2,008
  2,099
  2,194
  2,295
  2,401
  2,513
  2,632
  2,756
  2,887
  3,026
  3,171
  3,324
  3,485
  3,654
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,114
  1,136
  1,162
  1,192
  1,226
  1,263
  1,304
  1,348
  1,396
  1,448
  1,504
  1,563
  1,627
  1,694
  1,766
  1,842
  1,923
  2,008
  2,099
  2,194
  2,295
  2,401
  2,513
  2,632
  2,756
  2,887
  3,026
  3,171
  3,324
  3,485
  3,654
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.947
  1.947
  1.948
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.946
  1.947
  1.948
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
  1.947
Average production assets, $m
  81
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
Working capital, $m
  719
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Total debt, $m
  0
  16
  36
  58
  82
  110
  140
  173
  208
  246
  287
  331
  378
  428
  480
  537
  596
  659
  726
  796
  870
  949
  1,031
  1,119
  1,210
  1,307
  1,409
  1,516
  1,629
  1,747
  1,872
Total liabilities, $m
  822
  837
  857
  879
  903
  931
  961
  994
  1,029
  1,067
  1,108
  1,152
  1,199
  1,249
  1,301
  1,358
  1,417
  1,480
  1,547
  1,617
  1,691
  1,770
  1,852
  1,940
  2,031
  2,128
  2,230
  2,337
  2,450
  2,568
  2,693
Total equity, $m
  999
  299
  306
  314
  322
  332
  343
  355
  367
  381
  395
  411
  428
  446
  464
  484
  506
  528
  552
  577
  604
  632
  661
  692
  725
  759
  796
  834
  874
  917
  961
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,821
  1,136
  1,163
  1,193
  1,225
  1,263
  1,304
  1,349
  1,396
  1,448
  1,503
  1,563
  1,627
  1,695
  1,765
  1,842
  1,923
  2,008
  2,099
  2,194
  2,295
  2,402
  2,513
  2,632
  2,756
  2,887
  3,026
  3,171
  3,324
  3,485
  3,654
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.060
  0.120
  0.180
  0.260
  0.330
  0.410
  0.490
  0.570
  0.650
  0.730
  0.810
  0.880
  0.960
  1.030
  1.110
  1.180
  1.250
  1.310
  1.380
  1.440
  1.500
  1.560
  1.620
  1.670
  1.720
  1.770
  1.820
  1.860
  1.910
  1.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -103
  302
  309
  316
  325
  334
  344
  356
  368
  381
  395
  413
  429
  446
  464
  483
  504
  525
  548
  572
  597
  624
  652
  682
  713
  746
  781
  817
  856
  896
  939
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  307
  316
  322
  330
  339
  349
  359
  371
  383
  396
  411
  425
  441
  459
  477
  497
  518
  540
  563
  588
  614
  642
  671
  701
  734
  768
  803
  841
  880
  922
  966
Change in working capital, $m
  197
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  110
  301
  322
  330
  338
  348
  359
  370
  383
  396
  410
  424
  441
  458
  477
  496
  517
  539
  562
  587
  613
  641
  669
  700
  732
  766
  802
  839
  879
  920
  964
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -79
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -393
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
Free cash flow, $m
  -283
  293
  313
  320
  328
  338
  348
  359
  371
  384
  397
  411
  427
  443
  461
  480
  500
  522
  544
  568
  593
  620
  648
  677
  708
  741
  775
  811
  850
  890
  932
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  16
  19
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  49
  16
  19
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -235
  309
  332
  342
  353
  365
  378
  392
  406
  422
  438
  455
  473
  493
  514
  536
  560
  585
  611
  638
  667
  698
  730
  764
  800
  837
  877
  919
  962
  1,008
  1,057
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -18
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  706
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,010
  325
  334
  344
  355
  367
  380
  394
  408
  424
  439
  457
  475
  495
  516
  539
  562
  587
  613
  641
  670
  701
  733
  767
  803
  841
  880
  922
  966
  1,012
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  968
  298
  291
  284
  275
  266
  257
  246
  234
  222
  208
  195
  181
  166
  152
  137
  122
  108
  94
  81
  69
  58
  48
  39
  31
  25
  19
  14
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Fitbit, Inc. provides wearable health and fitness tracking devices. It offers various products, including Fitbit Zip, an entry-level wireless tracker that allows users to track daily activity statistics, such as steps, distance, calories burned, and active minutes; Fitbit One, a clippable wireless tracker, which tracks floors climbed and sleep, as well as daily steps, distance, calories burned, and active minutes; Fitbit Flex, a wristband-style tracker that tracks steps, distance, calories burned, active minutes, and sleep; and Fitbit Charge, an activity and sleep wristband, which tracks steps, distance, calories burned, active minutes, floors climbed, and sleep. The company also provides Fitbit Alta, a customizable wristband that offers call, text, and calendar notifications when paired with the user’s phone and SmartTrack automatic exercise recognition; and Fitbit Charge HR, a wireless heart rate and activity wristband. In addition, it offers Fitbit Blaze, a smart fitness watch that provides multi-sport functionality, tracks outdoor cycling activity, and provides run cues; Fitbit Surge, a fitness watch that features a GPS watch, heart rate tracker, activity tracker, and smartwatch; Aria, a Wi-Fi connected scale that tracks weight, body fat percentage, and body mass index; and Fitbit accessories that include bands and frames for Fitbit Blaze, bands for Fitbit Alta, colored bands for Fitbit Flex, colored clips for Fitbit One and Fitbit Zip, device charging cables, wireless sync dongles, band clasps, sleep bands, and Fitbit apparel. The company offers its products through consumer electronics and specialty retailers, e-Commerce retailers, sporting goods and outdoors retailers, and wireless carriers; and corporate wellness channels, as well as directly worldwide. The company was formerly known as Healthy Metrics Research, Inc. and changed its name to Fitbit, Inc. in October 2007. Fitbit, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fitbit (FIT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -11.6
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 38.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 154.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 58.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -108
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Return On Total Capital -10.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.2%
Return On Equity -10.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.2%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.2%
EBITDA Margin -3.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Operating Margin -5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Net Profit Margin -4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 5.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

FIT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FIT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2169 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fitbit. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fitbit. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FIT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FIT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fitbit, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fitbit.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FIT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FIT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Fitbit.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fitbit. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FIT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FIT are equal to 1.9%.

Life of production assets of 3.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fitbit operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FIT is equal to 0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $999 million for Fitbit - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 217.6 million for Fitbit is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fitbit at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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Stock chart of FIT Financial statements of FIT Annual reports of FIT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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