Intrinsic value of Five Below - FIVE

Previous Close

$67.37

  Intrinsic Value

$78.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+17%

Previous close

$67.37

 
Intrinsic value

$78.57

 
Up/down potential

+17%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of FIVE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.19
  29.10
  26.69
  24.52
  22.57
  20.81
  19.23
  17.81
  16.53
  15.37
  14.34
  13.40
  12.56
  11.81
  11.13
  10.51
  9.96
  9.47
  9.02
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.14
Revenue, $m
  1,000
  1,291
  1,636
  2,037
  2,496
  3,016
  3,596
  4,236
  4,936
  5,695
  6,512
  7,384
  8,312
  9,293
  10,327
  11,413
  12,550
  13,738
  14,977
  16,268
  17,611
  19,007
  20,459
  21,967
  23,535
  25,164
  26,858
  28,619
  30,451
  32,357
  34,342
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,130
  1,431
  1,782
  2,184
  2,639
  3,146
  3,707
  4,319
  4,983
  5,698
  6,461
  7,273
  8,132
  9,036
  9,986
  10,981
  12,021
  13,105
  14,234
  15,409
  16,631
  17,901
  19,221
  20,593
  22,018
  23,500
  25,041
  26,644
  28,313
  30,050
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
Total operating expenses, $m
  886
  1,141
  1,443
  1,794
  2,196
  2,651
  3,159
  3,720
  4,332
  4,997
  5,712
  6,475
  7,288
  8,147
  9,052
  10,002
  10,997
  12,038
  13,122
  14,252
  15,427
  16,649
  17,920
  19,240
  20,613
  22,038
  23,521
  25,062
  26,666
  28,336
  30,073
Operating income, $m
  114
  150
  193
  243
  300
  365
  437
  516
  604
  698
  800
  909
  1,024
  1,147
  1,275
  1,411
  1,552
  1,701
  1,855
  2,016
  2,183
  2,357
  2,538
  2,726
  2,922
  3,125
  3,336
  3,556
  3,784
  4,022
  4,270
EBITDA, $m
  141
  184
  235
  296
  365
  443
  530
  627
  732
  846
  969
  1,101
  1,240
  1,388
  1,544
  1,707
  1,879
  2,058
  2,244
  2,439
  2,641
  2,852
  3,070
  3,298
  3,534
  3,779
  4,035
  4,300
  4,576
  4,863
  5,163
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  49
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  134
  144
  154
  164
  175
  187
Earnings before tax, $m
  114
  150
  191
  239
  294
  356
  425
  501
  584
  675
  772
  876
  986
  1,103
  1,226
  1,355
  1,490
  1,632
  1,779
  1,933
  2,092
  2,259
  2,431
  2,611
  2,797
  2,991
  3,192
  3,402
  3,620
  3,847
  4,083
Tax expense, $m
  42
  41
  52
  65
  79
  96
  115
  135
  158
  182
  208
  236
  266
  298
  331
  366
  402
  441
  480
  522
  565
  610
  656
  705
  755
  808
  862
  919
  977
  1,039
  1,102
Net income, $m
  72
  110
  140
  174
  214
  260
  310
  366
  427
  493
  564
  639
  720
  805
  895
  989
  1,088
  1,191
  1,299
  1,411
  1,527
  1,649
  1,775
  1,906
  2,042
  2,183
  2,331
  2,483
  2,643
  2,808
  2,981

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  154
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  501
  448
  568
  707
  866
  1,046
  1,248
  1,470
  1,713
  1,976
  2,259
  2,562
  2,884
  3,225
  3,583
  3,960
  4,355
  4,767
  5,197
  5,645
  6,111
  6,595
  7,099
  7,622
  8,166
  8,731
  9,319
  9,930
  10,566
  11,227
  11,916
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  347
  448
  568
  707
  866
  1,046
  1,248
  1,470
  1,713
  1,976
  2,259
  2,562
  2,884
  3,225
  3,583
  3,960
  4,355
  4,767
  5,197
  5,645
  6,111
  6,595
  7,099
  7,622
  8,166
  8,731
  9,319
  9,930
  10,566
  11,227
  11,916
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.882
  2.882
  2.880
  2.881
  2.882
  2.883
  2.881
  2.882
  2.881
  2.882
  2.883
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
  2.882
Average production assets, $m
  130
  168
  213
  265
  325
  392
  467
  551
  642
  740
  847
  960
  1,081
  1,208
  1,343
  1,484
  1,632
  1,786
  1,947
  2,115
  2,289
  2,471
  2,660
  2,856
  3,060
  3,271
  3,491
  3,720
  3,959
  4,206
  4,465
Working capital, $m
  223
  89
  113
  141
  172
  208
  248
  292
  341
  393
  449
  510
  574
  641
  713
  788
  866
  948
  1,033
  1,122
  1,215
  1,311
  1,412
  1,516
  1,624
  1,736
  1,853
  1,975
  2,101
  2,233
  2,370
Total debt, $m
  0
  49
  108
  176
  254
  343
  441
  550
  669
  798
  937
  1,085
  1,243
  1,410
  1,586
  1,770
  1,964
  2,166
  2,376
  2,596
  2,824
  3,062
  3,308
  3,565
  3,831
  4,108
  4,396
  4,696
  5,007
  5,331
  5,669
Total liabilities, $m
  169
  219
  278
  346
  424
  513
  611
  720
  839
  968
  1,107
  1,255
  1,413
  1,580
  1,756
  1,940
  2,134
  2,336
  2,546
  2,766
  2,994
  3,232
  3,478
  3,735
  4,001
  4,278
  4,566
  4,866
  5,177
  5,501
  5,839
Total equity, $m
  331
  228
  289
  360
  442
  534
  636
  750
  874
  1,008
  1,152
  1,307
  1,471
  1,645
  1,828
  2,020
  2,221
  2,431
  2,650
  2,879
  3,116
  3,364
  3,620
  3,887
  4,165
  4,453
  4,753
  5,064
  5,389
  5,726
  6,077
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  500
  447
  567
  706
  866
  1,047
  1,247
  1,470
  1,713
  1,976
  2,259
  2,562
  2,884
  3,225
  3,584
  3,960
  4,355
  4,767
  5,196
  5,645
  6,110
  6,596
  7,098
  7,622
  8,166
  8,731
  9,319
  9,930
  10,566
  11,227
  11,916
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.220
  0.370
  0.490
  0.580
  0.640
  0.690
  0.730
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.930
  0.930
  0.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  72
  110
  140
  174
  214
  260
  310
  366
  427
  493
  564
  639
  720
  805
  895
  989
  1,088
  1,191
  1,299
  1,411
  1,527
  1,649
  1,775
  1,906
  2,042
  2,183
  2,331
  2,483
  2,643
  2,808
  2,981
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  34
  43
  53
  65
  78
  93
  110
  128
  148
  169
  192
  216
  242
  269
  297
  326
  357
  389
  423
  458
  494
  532
  571
  612
  654
  698
  744
  792
  841
  893
Funds from operations, $m
  106
  143
  182
  227
  279
  338
  404
  476
  555
  641
  733
  831
  936
  1,047
  1,164
  1,286
  1,414
  1,548
  1,688
  1,834
  1,985
  2,143
  2,307
  2,477
  2,654
  2,838
  3,029
  3,228
  3,434
  3,650
  3,874
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  126
  132
  137
Cash from operations, $m
  107
  123
  158
  200
  248
  302
  364
  432
  507
  588
  676
  771
  872
  979
  1,092
  1,211
  1,336
  1,466
  1,603
  1,745
  1,893
  2,047
  2,207
  2,373
  2,546
  2,725
  2,912
  3,106
  3,308
  3,518
  3,737
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -26
  -34
  -43
  -53
  -65
  -78
  -93
  -110
  -128
  -148
  -169
  -192
  -216
  -242
  -269
  -297
  -326
  -357
  -389
  -423
  -458
  -494
  -532
  -571
  -612
  -654
  -698
  -744
  -792
  -841
New CAPEX, $m
  -45
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -68
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -258
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -87
  -64
  -79
  -95
  -113
  -133
  -153
  -176
  -201
  -227
  -254
  -282
  -313
  -344
  -376
  -410
  -445
  -480
  -518
  -557
  -598
  -640
  -683
  -728
  -775
  -824
  -874
  -927
  -982
  -1,040
  -1,099
Free cash flow, $m
  20
  59
  80
  105
  135
  170
  210
  255
  305
  361
  422
  488
  559
  635
  716
  801
  891
  986
  1,084
  1,188
  1,295
  1,407
  1,524
  1,645
  1,771
  1,902
  2,038
  2,179
  2,326
  2,478
  2,637
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  49
  59
  68
  78
  88
  99
  109
  119
  129
  139
  148
  158
  167
  176
  185
  193
  202
  211
  219
  228
  237
  247
  256
  267
  277
  288
  299
  311
  324
  338
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  49
  59
  68
  78
  88
  99
  109
  119
  129
  139
  148
  158
  167
  176
  185
  193
  202
  211
  219
  228
  237
  247
  256
  267
  277
  288
  299
  311
  324
  338
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  108
  139
  173
  213
  258
  308
  364
  424
  490
  561
  637
  717
  802
  892
  986
  1,085
  1,188
  1,295
  1,407
  1,523
  1,645
  1,770
  1,901
  2,037
  2,179
  2,325
  2,478
  2,637
  2,803
  2,975
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -87
  -51
  -61
  -71
  -81
  -92
  -103
  -113
  -124
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -277
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -351
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  154
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  211
  78
  102
  132
  166
  206
  251
  301
  356
  417
  482
  553
  629
  709
  794
  883
  977
  1,076
  1,179
  1,286
  1,397
  1,514
  1,634
  1,760
  1,890
  2,026
  2,167
  2,313
  2,465
  2,623
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  202
  71
  89
  108
  129
  149
  169
  188
  204
  218
  229
  236
  239
  238
  233
  225
  213
  198
  181
  163
  145
  126
  107
  90
  74
  59
  47
  36
  27
  20
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Five Below, Inc. is a specialty retailer offering a range of merchandise for teen and pre-teen customer. The Company offers an assortment of products, including select brands and licensed merchandise across a range of categories, including Style, Room, Sports, Tech, Crafts, Party, Candy and Now. Its product groups include leisure, fashion and home, and party and snack. Its Leisure includes items, such as sporting goods, games, toys, tech, books, electronic accessories, and arts and crafts. Its Fashion and home includes items, such as personal accessories, attitude t-shirts, beauty offerings, home goods and storage options. Its Party and snack includes items, such as party and seasonal goods, greeting cards, candy and other snacks, and beverages. The Company operated 522 locations across over 31 states throughout the Northeast, South and Midwest regions of the United States, as of January 29, 2017. Its typical store featured 4,000 stock-keeping units (SKUs), as of January 29, 2017.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Five Below (FIVE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 51.4
Price to Sales 3.7
Price to Book 11.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 34.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 59.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Return On Total Capital 25%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Return On Equity 25%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
EBITDA Margin 14.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Operating Margin 11.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Effective Tax Rate 36.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

FIVE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FIVE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1000 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Five Below. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Five Below. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FIVE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 29.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FIVE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Five Below, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Five Below.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FIVE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $11 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FIVE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Five Below.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Five Below. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FIVE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FIVE are equal to 13%.

Life of production assets of 4.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Five Below operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FIVE is equal to 6.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $331 million for Five Below - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56.695 million for Five Below is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Five Below at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.

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Financial statements of FIVE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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