Intrinsic value of Five9 - FIVN

Previous Close

$24.58

  Intrinsic Value

$12.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-48%

Previous close

$24.58

 
Intrinsic value

$12.90

 
Up/down potential

-48%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FIVN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.58
  22.00
  20.30
  18.77
  17.39
  16.15
  15.04
  14.03
  13.13
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.33
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
Revenue, $m
  162
  198
  238
  282
  332
  385
  443
  505
  571
  642
  716
  794
  877
  963
  1,052
  1,146
  1,243
  1,344
  1,450
  1,559
  1,673
  1,791
  1,914
  2,042
  2,175
  2,313
  2,457
  2,607
  2,763
  2,926
  3,095
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  119
  143
  170
  199
  231
  266
  303
  343
  385
  429
  475
  524
  575
  629
  685
  743
  803
  866
  932
  1,000
  1,070
  1,144
  1,220
  1,300
  1,382
  1,468
  1,558
  1,651
  1,748
  1,850
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  151
  155
Total operating expenses, $m
  170
  195
  221
  250
  281
  315
  352
  391
  433
  477
  524
  572
  624
  677
  734
  792
  853
  916
  981
  1,050
  1,121
  1,194
  1,271
  1,351
  1,434
  1,519
  1,609
  1,702
  1,799
  1,899
  2,005
Operating income, $m
  -8
  2
  17
  33
  51
  70
  91
  114
  139
  165
  192
  223
  253
  285
  319
  354
  390
  428
  468
  509
  552
  597
  643
  691
  741
  794
  848
  905
  964
  1,026
  1,090
EBITDA, $m
  0
  8
  23
  40
  58
  79
  101
  126
  151
  179
  208
  239
  271
  305
  340
  377
  416
  456
  498
  541
  586
  633
  682
  733
  786
  841
  898
  958
  1,020
  1,086
  1,153
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  3
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  63
Earnings before tax, $m
  -12
  -1
  15
  30
  47
  65
  85
  107
  130
  154
  180
  209
  238
  268
  300
  333
  367
  403
  440
  479
  519
  561
  605
  651
  698
  747
  799
  852
  908
  966
  1,027
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  4
  8
  13
  18
  23
  29
  35
  42
  49
  56
  64
  72
  81
  90
  99
  109
  119
  129
  140
  152
  163
  176
  188
  202
  216
  230
  245
  261
  277
Net income, $m
  -12
  -1
  11
  22
  34
  48
  62
  78
  95
  113
  132
  153
  174
  196
  219
  243
  268
  294
  321
  350
  379
  410
  442
  475
  510
  545
  583
  622
  663
  705
  750

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  58
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  105
  57
  69
  82
  96
  112
  129
  147
  166
  186
  208
  230
  254
  279
  305
  332
  361
  390
  421
  452
  485
  520
  555
  592
  631
  671
  713
  756
  802
  849
  898
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  47
  57
  69
  82
  96
  112
  129
  147
  166
  186
  208
  230
  254
  279
  305
  332
  361
  390
  421
  452
  485
  520
  555
  592
  631
  671
  713
  756
  802
  849
  898
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.447
  3.474
  3.449
  3.439
  3.458
  3.438
  3.434
  3.435
  3.440
  3.452
  3.442
  3.452
  3.453
  3.452
  3.449
  3.452
  3.443
  3.446
  3.444
  3.449
  3.449
  3.444
  3.449
  3.449
  3.447
  3.447
  3.446
  3.448
  3.445
  3.446
  3.447
Average production assets, $m
  17
  20
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  52
  58
  65
  73
  81
  89
  98
  107
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  183
  195
  208
  222
  236
  251
  266
  282
  298
  316
Working capital, $m
  41
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -192
Total debt, $m
  46
  23
  33
  45
  58
  72
  87
  103
  120
  139
  158
  178
  200
  222
  246
  270
  296
  322
  350
  378
  408
  439
  471
  504
  539
  575
  612
  652
  692
  735
  779
Total liabilities, $m
  75
  52
  62
  74
  87
  101
  116
  132
  149
  168
  187
  207
  229
  251
  275
  299
  325
  351
  379
  407
  437
  468
  500
  533
  568
  604
  641
  681
  721
  764
  808
Total equity, $m
  30
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  105
  58
  69
  82
  97
  112
  129
  147
  166
  187
  208
  230
  254
  279
  306
  332
  361
  390
  421
  452
  486
  520
  556
  592
  631
  671
  712
  757
  801
  849
  898
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.533
  3.940
  4.800
  5.460
  5.980
  6.400
  6.740
  7.020
  7.250
  7.440
  7.600
  7.740
  7.860
  7.960
  8.050
  8.130
  8.200
  8.260
  8.310
  8.360
  8.400
  8.440
  8.480
  8.510
  8.540
  8.570
  8.590
  8.620
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.596
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -12
  -1
  11
  22
  34
  48
  62
  78
  95
  113
  132
  153
  174
  196
  219
  243
  268
  294
  321
  350
  379
  410
  442
  475
  510
  545
  583
  622
  663
  705
  750
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  4
  17
  29
  42
  57
  72
  89
  108
  127
  147
  169
  192
  215
  240
  266
  293
  322
  351
  382
  413
  446
  481
  517
  554
  593
  633
  675
  719
  765
  813
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  7
  19
  32
  45
  60
  76
  93
  112
  131
  152
  174
  197
  221
  246
  272
  299
  328
  358
  388
  420
  454
  488
  525
  562
  601
  642
  685
  729
  775
  823
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -50
  -52
  -56
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  0
  11
  22
  34
  48
  62
  78
  95
  112
  131
  151
  172
  194
  217
  241
  266
  292
  319
  348
  377
  408
  439
  472
  507
  543
  580
  619
  660
  702
  746
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  -16
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  12
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  11
  22
  34
  47
  62
  77
  94
  112
  131
  151
  171
  193
  216
  240
  265
  292
  319
  347
  376
  407
  438
  471
  506
  542
  579
  618
  658
  701
  745
  791
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -28
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  34
  21
  33
  46
  60
  76
  92
  110
  129
  149
  169
  191
  214
  238
  263
  289
  316
  344
  373
  403
  435
  468
  502
  538
  575
  614
  654
  696
  740
  786
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  33
  19
  28
  38
  47
  55
  62
  69
  74
  78
  80
  82
  81
  80
  77
  73
  69
  63
  57
  51
  45
  39
  33
  27
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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Five9 Inc. (Five9) is a provider of cloud software for contact centers. The Company's purpose-built Virtual Contact Center (VCC) cloud platform delivers a suite of applications that enable the breadth of contact center-related customer service, sales and marketing functions. The Company's solution, which consists of its VCC cloud platform and applications, allows simultaneous management and optimization of customer interactions across voice, chat, e-mail, Web, social media and mobile channels, either directly or through its application programming interfaces (APIs). The Company's VCC cloud platform matches each customer interaction with an appropriate agent resource and delivers relevant customer data to the agent in real-time through integrations with adjacent enterprise applications, such as customer relationship management (CRM) software, to optimize the customer experience and agent productivity.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Five9 (FIVN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -109.3
Price to Sales 8.1
Price to Book 43.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 187.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 218.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 130%
Total Debt to Equity 153.3%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.5%
Return On Total Capital -16.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.9%
Return On Equity -42.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -104.7%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.9%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.9%
Operating Margin -4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.5%
Net Profit Margin -7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

FIVN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FIVN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $162 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Five9. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Five9. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FIVN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FIVN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Five9, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Five9.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FIVN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $74 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FIVN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.6% for Five9.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Five9. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FIVN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FIVN are equal to 10.2%.

Life of production assets of 3.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Five9 operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FIVN is equal to -6.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $30 million for Five9 - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56.27 million for Five9 is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Five9 at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 High-Growth Stocks That Could Soar   [Jan-14-18 06:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Five9 beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-08-17 05:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Five9, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:40PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Five9, Inc. : October 30, 2017   [Oct-30-17 11:49AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Five9, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:14AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Five9 Clears Technical Benchmark, Hitting 90-Plus RS Rating   [Sep-29-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Five9, Inc. : September 22, 2017   [Sep-22-17 11:10AM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Cloud Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Aug-09-17 04:28PM  Zacks]
▶ Five9 in the red   [Aug-04-17 02:15PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Five9 reports 2Q loss   [03:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Five9 Reports Second Quarter Revenue Growth of 23%   [Aug-03-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Five9 Announces Upcoming Conference Participation   [Jul-31-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Five9, Inc. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 03:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 5 Stock Picks with Earnings Beat Potential   [Jul-21-17 03:54AM  Zacks]
▶ Five9, Inc. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:FIVN) : July 17, 2017   [Jul-17-17 01:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Top Small-Cap Technology Stocks to Buy Now   [Jul-16-17 08:01AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Five9, Inc. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 02:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Cloud Stocks to Buy Right Now   [01:43PM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Five9, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 03:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Five9, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Cloud Stocks To Buy Right Now   [Jun-12-17 06:43PM  Zacks]
▶ Five9 Announces Upcoming Conference Participation   [May-04-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Five9 Inc. Stock Popped Today   [03:55PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Five9 reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 06:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Five9, Inc. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:FIVN) : April 13, 2017   [Apr-13-17 12:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Five9 Joins Industry Leaders at Enterprise Connect 2017   [Mar-22-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of FIVN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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