Intrinsic value of National Beverage - FIZZ

Previous Close

$113.64

  Intrinsic Value

$102.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-10%

  Value-price divergence*

+319%

Previous close

$113.64

 
Intrinsic value

$102.10

 
Up/down potential

-10%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+319%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FIZZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.13
  20.40
  18.86
  17.47
  16.23
  15.10
  14.09
  13.18
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.83
  9.35
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.36
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  705
  849
  1,009
  1,185
  1,378
  1,586
  1,809
  2,048
  2,301
  2,568
  2,850
  3,145
  3,455
  3,778
  4,115
  4,465
  4,830
  5,209
  5,604
  6,013
  6,439
  6,882
  7,342
  7,820
  8,318
  8,836
  9,375
  9,937
  10,523
  11,134
  11,772
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  590
  701
  823
  956
  1,100
  1,255
  1,421
  1,596
  1,782
  1,977
  2,180
  2,395
  2,619
  2,852
  3,095
  3,348
  3,611
  3,884
  4,168
  4,463
  4,770
  5,089
  5,421
  5,766
  6,125
  6,499
  6,888
  7,294
  7,718
  8,160
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  128
  131
  135
  138
  141
  145
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  243
  250
  256
  262
Total operating expenses, $m
  612
  718
  832
  958
  1,094
  1,241
  1,400
  1,570
  1,748
  1,938
  2,137
  2,344
  2,563
  2,791
  3,029
  3,276
  3,534
  3,801
  4,079
  4,368
  4,668
  4,980
  5,304
  5,642
  5,992
  6,357
  6,737
  7,131
  7,544
  7,974
  8,422
Operating income, $m
  93
  131
  177
  228
  283
  344
  409
  478
  552
  631
  713
  801
  892
  987
  1,086
  1,189
  1,297
  1,408
  1,524
  1,645
  1,771
  1,902
  2,038
  2,179
  2,326
  2,480
  2,639
  2,806
  2,979
  3,161
  3,350
EBITDA, $m
  105
  140
  187
  240
  297
  359
  426
  498
  574
  655
  740
  829
  923
  1,021
  1,123
  1,229
  1,340
  1,455
  1,575
  1,699
  1,829
  1,964
  2,104
  2,249
  2,401
  2,559
  2,724
  2,895
  3,074
  3,261
  3,456
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
Earnings before tax, $m
  93
  131
  176
  226
  281
  340
  404
  473
  546
  623
  704
  791
  880
  973
  1,071
  1,172
  1,278
  1,388
  1,502
  1,621
  1,745
  1,873
  2,007
  2,146
  2,291
  2,442
  2,599
  2,763
  2,934
  3,112
  3,298
Tax expense, $m
  32
  35
  48
  61
  76
  92
  109
  128
  147
  168
  190
  213
  238
  263
  289
  316
  345
  375
  406
  438
  471
  506
  542
  579
  619
  659
  702
  746
  792
  840
  890
Net income, $m
  61
  96
  129
  165
  205
  249
  295
  345
  398
  455
  514
  577
  642
  710
  782
  856
  933
  1,013
  1,097
  1,183
  1,274
  1,367
  1,465
  1,567
  1,672
  1,782
  1,897
  2,017
  2,142
  2,272
  2,408

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  106
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  306
  241
  286
  336
  391
  450
  513
  581
  653
  729
  808
  892
  980
  1,072
  1,167
  1,267
  1,370
  1,478
  1,590
  1,706
  1,827
  1,952
  2,083
  2,218
  2,360
  2,507
  2,660
  2,819
  2,985
  3,159
  3,340
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  200
  241
  286
  336
  391
  450
  513
  581
  653
  729
  808
  892
  980
  1,072
  1,167
  1,267
  1,370
  1,478
  1,590
  1,706
  1,827
  1,952
  2,083
  2,218
  2,360
  2,507
  2,660
  2,819
  2,985
  3,159
  3,340
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.525
  3.523
  3.528
  3.527
  3.524
  3.524
  3.526
  3.525
  3.524
  3.523
  3.527
  3.526
  3.526
  3.524
  3.526
  3.524
  3.526
  3.524
  3.525
  3.525
  3.524
  3.526
  3.525
  3.526
  3.525
  3.525
  3.524
  3.525
  3.525
  3.525
  3.525
Average production assets, $m
  64
  76
  91
  107
  124
  143
  163
  184
  207
  231
  256
  283
  311
  340
  370
  402
  435
  469
  504
  541
  580
  619
  661
  704
  749
  795
  844
  894
  947
  1,002
  1,059
Working capital, $m
  148
  51
  61
  71
  83
  95
  109
  123
  138
  154
  171
  189
  207
  227
  247
  268
  290
  313
  336
  361
  386
  413
  441
  469
  499
  530
  563
  596
  631
  668
  706
Total debt, $m
  0
  20
  43
  68
  95
  125
  157
  190
  226
  264
  304
  346
  390
  436
  484
  533
  585
  639
  695
  753
  813
  876
  941
  1,009
  1,080
  1,153
  1,230
  1,310
  1,393
  1,479
  1,570
Total liabilities, $m
  99
  120
  143
  168
  195
  225
  257
  290
  326
  364
  404
  446
  490
  536
  584
  633
  685
  739
  795
  853
  913
  976
  1,041
  1,109
  1,180
  1,253
  1,330
  1,410
  1,493
  1,579
  1,670
Total equity, $m
  206
  120
  143
  168
  195
  225
  257
  290
  326
  364
  404
  446
  490
  536
  584
  633
  685
  739
  795
  853
  913
  976
  1,041
  1,109
  1,180
  1,253
  1,330
  1,410
  1,493
  1,579
  1,670
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  305
  240
  286
  336
  390
  450
  514
  580
  652
  728
  808
  892
  980
  1,072
  1,168
  1,266
  1,370
  1,478
  1,590
  1,706
  1,826
  1,952
  2,082
  2,218
  2,360
  2,506
  2,660
  2,820
  2,986
  3,158
  3,340
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.170
  0.300
  0.410
  0.490
  0.560
  0.610
  0.660
  0.690
  0.730
  0.750
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  96
  129
  165
  205
  249
  295
  345
  398
  455
  514
  577
  642
  710
  782
  856
  933
  1,013
  1,097
  1,183
  1,274
  1,367
  1,465
  1,567
  1,672
  1,782
  1,897
  2,017
  2,142
  2,272
  2,408
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
Funds from operations, $m
  86
  105
  139
  177
  219
  264
  313
  365
  420
  479
  541
  605
  673
  744
  819
  896
  976
  1,060
  1,147
  1,237
  1,332
  1,429
  1,531
  1,637
  1,747
  1,862
  1,982
  2,106
  2,236
  2,372
  2,514
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
Cash from operations, $m
  79
  96
  129
  167
  207
  252
  299
  351
  405
  463
  524
  588
  655
  725
  798
  875
  954
  1,037
  1,123
  1,213
  1,306
  1,403
  1,504
  1,608
  1,717
  1,831
  1,949
  2,073
  2,201
  2,335
  2,475
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -157
Free cash flow, $m
  67
  77
  107
  142
  179
  221
  265
  313
  364
  418
  475
  535
  599
  665
  734
  806
  881
  960
  1,041
  1,126
  1,214
  1,305
  1,400
  1,499
  1,602
  1,709
  1,821
  1,938
  2,059
  2,186
  2,318
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -14
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  97
  130
  167
  207
  250
  297
  347
  400
  456
  515
  577
  643
  711
  782
  856
  933
  1,013
  1,097
  1,184
  1,274
  1,368
  1,465
  1,567
  1,673
  1,783
  1,898
  2,017
  2,142
  2,272
  2,408
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -58
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  106
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  183
  107
  142
  179
  221
  265
  313
  364
  418
  475
  535
  599
  665
  734
  806
  881
  960
  1,041
  1,126
  1,214
  1,305
  1,400
  1,499
  1,602
  1,709
  1,821
  1,938
  2,059
  2,186
  2,318
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  175
  98
  123
  148
  171
  192
  211
  227
  240
  249
  254
  255
  253
  246
  237
  224
  209
  192
  173
  154
  135
  116
  98
  82
  66
  53
  42
  32
  24
  17
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

National Beverage Corp., through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, markets, and sells a portfolio of flavored beverage products primarily in North America. The company offers beverages geared to the active and health-conscious consumers, including sparkling waters under the LaCroix, LaCroix C├║rate, LaCroix NiCola, and Shasta brand names; energy drinks and shots under the Rip It brand name; juice and juice-based products under the Everfresh, Everfresh Premier Varietals, and Mr. Pure brand names; and carbonated soft drinks in various flavors comprising regular, sugar-free, and reduced-calorie options under the Shasta and Faygo brands. It serves retailers, as well as various up-and-down-the-street accounts through the take-home, convenience, and food-service distribution channels. The company sells and markets its products through an internal sales force, as well as specialized broker networks. National Beverage Corp. was founded in 1985 and is based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. National Beverage Corp. is a subsidiary of IBS Partners, Ltd.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  National Beverage (FIZZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 86.7
Price to Sales 7.5
Price to Book 25.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 67
Price to Free Cash Flow 79
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 22%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Return On Total Capital 33.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Return On Equity 34.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 41%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34%
EBITDA Margin 14.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 13.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Effective Tax Rate 34.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

FIZZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FIZZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $705 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by National Beverage. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of National Beverage. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FIZZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FIZZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of National Beverage, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of National Beverage.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FIZZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $125 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FIZZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for National Beverage.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for National Beverage. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FIZZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FIZZ are equal to 9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in National Beverage operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FIZZ is equal to 6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $206 million for National Beverage - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.384 million for National Beverage is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of National Beverage at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.3 billion.

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Stock chart of FIZZ Financial statements of FIZZ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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