Intrinsic value of Foot Locker - FL

Previous Close

$44.41

  Intrinsic Value

$92.66

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+109%

Previous close

$44.41

 
Intrinsic value

$92.66

 
Up/down potential

+109%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of FL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.78
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  7,766
  7,921
  8,104
  8,312
  8,546
  8,805
  9,089
  9,398
  9,734
  10,094
  10,482
  10,896
  11,339
  11,809
  12,310
  12,841
  13,404
  13,999
  14,629
  15,295
  15,998
  16,739
  17,521
  18,345
  19,214
  20,129
  21,092
  22,105
  23,172
  24,294
  25,475
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,230
  4,327
  4,437
  4,562
  4,700
  4,851
  5,016
  5,194
  5,386
  5,592
  5,797
  6,032
  6,283
  6,549
  6,831
  7,131
  7,448
  7,783
  8,137
  8,511
  8,905
  9,321
  9,760
  10,222
  10,708
  11,221
  11,760
  12,328
  12,925
  13,553
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  2,746
  2,815
  2,885
  2,957
  3,031
  3,107
  3,184
  3,264
  3,346
  3,429
  3,515
  3,603
  3,693
  3,785
  3,880
  3,977
  4,076
  4,178
  4,283
  4,390
  4,500
  4,612
  4,727
  4,846
  4,967
  5,091
  5,218
  5,349
  5,482
  5,619
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,760
  6,976
  7,142
  7,322
  7,519
  7,731
  7,958
  8,200
  8,458
  8,732
  9,021
  9,312
  9,635
  9,976
  10,334
  10,711
  11,108
  11,524
  11,961
  12,420
  12,901
  13,405
  13,933
  14,487
  15,068
  15,675
  16,312
  16,978
  17,677
  18,407
  19,172
Operating income, $m
  1,006
  946
  962
  989
  1,027
  1,074
  1,131
  1,198
  1,276
  1,363
  1,461
  1,584
  1,703
  1,834
  1,976
  2,129
  2,296
  2,475
  2,668
  2,875
  3,097
  3,334
  3,588
  3,858
  4,146
  4,453
  4,780
  5,127
  5,496
  5,887
  6,303
EBITDA, $m
  1,164
  1,094
  1,113
  1,144
  1,185
  1,237
  1,299
  1,371
  1,454
  1,547
  1,651
  1,767
  1,893
  2,031
  2,181
  2,344
  2,520
  2,709
  2,913
  3,131
  3,364
  3,614
  3,881
  4,165
  4,468
  4,790
  5,133
  5,497
  5,883
  6,294
  6,729
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  68
  74
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  123
  133
  143
  154
  165
  177
  190
  203
  217
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,004
  935
  950
  974
  1,009
  1,053
  1,107
  1,171
  1,244
  1,328
  1,421
  1,540
  1,654
  1,778
  1,914
  2,062
  2,222
  2,394
  2,579
  2,779
  2,992
  3,221
  3,465
  3,725
  4,003
  4,299
  4,615
  4,950
  5,306
  5,684
  6,085
Tax expense, $m
  340
  252
  256
  263
  272
  284
  299
  316
  336
  358
  384
  416
  446
  480
  517
  557
  600
  646
  696
  750
  808
  870
  935
  1,006
  1,081
  1,161
  1,246
  1,336
  1,433
  1,535
  1,643
Net income, $m
  664
  682
  693
  711
  737
  769
  808
  855
  908
  969
  1,037
  1,124
  1,207
  1,298
  1,397
  1,505
  1,622
  1,748
  1,883
  2,028
  2,184
  2,351
  2,529
  2,720
  2,922
  3,139
  3,369
  3,613
  3,873
  4,149
  4,442

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,046
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,840
  2,849
  2,915
  2,990
  3,074
  3,167
  3,269
  3,381
  3,501
  3,631
  3,770
  3,920
  4,079
  4,248
  4,428
  4,619
  4,821
  5,036
  5,262
  5,502
  5,755
  6,021
  6,303
  6,599
  6,911
  7,240
  7,587
  7,952
  8,335
  8,739
  9,164
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,794
  2,849
  2,915
  2,990
  3,074
  3,167
  3,269
  3,381
  3,501
  3,631
  3,770
  3,920
  4,079
  4,248
  4,428
  4,619
  4,821
  5,036
  5,262
  5,502
  5,755
  6,021
  6,303
  6,599
  6,911
  7,240
  7,587
  7,952
  8,335
  8,739
  9,164
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
Average production assets, $m
  757
  768
  786
  806
  829
  854
  882
  912
  944
  979
  1,017
  1,057
  1,100
  1,146
  1,194
  1,246
  1,300
  1,358
  1,419
  1,484
  1,552
  1,624
  1,700
  1,780
  1,864
  1,952
  2,046
  2,144
  2,248
  2,357
  2,471
Working capital, $m
  2,021
  998
  1,021
  1,047
  1,077
  1,109
  1,145
  1,184
  1,226
  1,272
  1,321
  1,373
  1,429
  1,488
  1,551
  1,618
  1,689
  1,764
  1,843
  1,927
  2,016
  2,109
  2,208
  2,312
  2,421
  2,536
  2,658
  2,785
  2,920
  3,061
  3,210
Total debt, $m
  127
  148
  175
  205
  239
  277
  318
  363
  412
  464
  520
  580
  645
  713
  786
  863
  945
  1,031
  1,123
  1,220
  1,322
  1,430
  1,543
  1,663
  1,789
  1,922
  2,062
  2,209
  2,364
  2,528
  2,699
Total liabilities, $m
  1,130
  1,151
  1,178
  1,208
  1,242
  1,280
  1,321
  1,366
  1,415
  1,467
  1,523
  1,583
  1,648
  1,716
  1,789
  1,866
  1,948
  2,034
  2,126
  2,223
  2,325
  2,433
  2,546
  2,666
  2,792
  2,925
  3,065
  3,212
  3,367
  3,531
  3,702
Total equity, $m
  2,710
  1,698
  1,737
  1,782
  1,832
  1,888
  1,949
  2,015
  2,087
  2,164
  2,247
  2,336
  2,431
  2,532
  2,639
  2,753
  2,874
  3,001
  3,136
  3,279
  3,430
  3,589
  3,756
  3,933
  4,119
  4,315
  4,522
  4,739
  4,968
  5,208
  5,461
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,840
  2,849
  2,915
  2,990
  3,074
  3,168
  3,270
  3,381
  3,502
  3,631
  3,770
  3,919
  4,079
  4,248
  4,428
  4,619
  4,822
  5,035
  5,262
  5,502
  5,755
  6,022
  6,302
  6,599
  6,911
  7,240
  7,587
  7,951
  8,335
  8,739
  9,163
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.047
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596
  0.596

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  664
  682
  693
  711
  737
  769
  808
  855
  908
  969
  1,037
  1,124
  1,207
  1,298
  1,397
  1,505
  1,622
  1,748
  1,883
  2,028
  2,184
  2,351
  2,529
  2,720
  2,922
  3,139
  3,369
  3,613
  3,873
  4,149
  4,442
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  158
  148
  151
  155
  158
  163
  168
  173
  178
  184
  191
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  337
  353
  370
  388
  406
  426
Funds from operations, $m
  839
  830
  844
  866
  895
  932
  976
  1,028
  1,087
  1,153
  1,228
  1,306
  1,397
  1,496
  1,603
  1,720
  1,846
  1,982
  2,128
  2,284
  2,452
  2,631
  2,822
  3,026
  3,244
  3,475
  3,721
  3,983
  4,261
  4,556
  4,868
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  93
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
Cash from operations, $m
  816
  811
  821
  840
  866
  899
  940
  989
  1,045
  1,108
  1,179
  1,254
  1,341
  1,436
  1,540
  1,653
  1,775
  1,907
  2,048
  2,200
  2,363
  2,538
  2,724
  2,923
  3,134
  3,360
  3,600
  3,855
  4,126
  4,414
  4,720
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -130
  -132
  -136
  -139
  -143
  -147
  -152
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -321
  -337
  -353
  -370
  -388
  -406
New CAPEX, $m
  -266
  -12
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -266
  -142
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -207
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -310
  -324
  -340
  -356
  -373
  -391
  -410
  -430
  -451
  -473
  -497
  -520
Free cash flow, $m
  550
  668
  671
  684
  704
  731
  765
  807
  855
  910
  973
  1,038
  1,116
  1,201
  1,294
  1,396
  1,506
  1,625
  1,753
  1,891
  2,039
  2,198
  2,368
  2,550
  2,743
  2,950
  3,170
  3,404
  3,653
  3,918
  4,199
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  21
  26
  30
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -399
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -382
  21
  26
  30
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  172
  690
  698
  714
  738
  769
  807
  852
  904
  963
  1,029
  1,099
  1,180
  1,269
  1,367
  1,473
  1,587
  1,711
  1,845
  1,988
  2,141
  2,306
  2,482
  2,669
  2,870
  3,083
  3,310
  3,552
  3,808
  4,081
  4,370
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -157
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -253
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,046
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,701
  659
  669
  688
  713
  746
  785
  832
  885
  946
  1,010
  1,085
  1,169
  1,260
  1,359
  1,467
  1,584
  1,709
  1,845
  1,991
  2,147
  2,314
  2,493
  2,683
  2,887
  3,103
  3,334
  3,580
  3,840
  4,117
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,631
  603
  583
  566
  553
  541
  530
  520
  509
  496
  480
  463
  444
  423
  399
  373
  345
  315
  284
  253
  222
  192
  163
  137
  112
  91
  72
  55
  42
  31
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Foot Locker, Inc. is a retailer of shoes and apparel. The Company operates through two segments: Athletic Stores and Direct-to-Customers. The Company is an athletic footwear and apparel retailer, which include businesses, such as include Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, Lady Foot Locker, Champs Sports, Footaction, Runners Point, Sidestep and SIX:02. The Direct-to-Customers segment is multi-branded and sells directly to customers through Internet and mobile sites and catalogs. The Direct-to-Customers segment operates the Websites for eastbay.com, final-score.com, eastbayteamsales.com and sp24.com. Additionally, this segment includes the Websites, both desktop and mobile, aligned with the brand names of its store banners (footlocker.com, ladyfootlocker.com, six02.com kidsfootlocker.com, champssports.com, footaction.com, footlocker.ca, footlocker.eu, runnerspoint.com and sidestep-shoes.com).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Foot Locker (FL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.8
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 4.7%
Total Debt to Equity 4.7%
Interest Coverage 92
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Return On Total Capital 24.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Return On Equity 25.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
EBITDA Margin 15.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Operating Margin 13%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Effective Tax Rate 33.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 22.1%

FL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7766 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Foot Locker. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Foot Locker. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Foot Locker, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Foot Locker.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 53.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2679 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.6% for Foot Locker.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Foot Locker. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FL are equal to 9.7%.

Life of production assets of 5.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Foot Locker operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FL is equal to 12.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2710 million for Foot Locker - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 124.041 million for Foot Locker is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Foot Locker at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.5 billion.

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Financial statements of FL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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