Intrinsic value of Fluidigm - FLDM

Previous Close

$3.73

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-47%

Previous close

$3.73

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-47%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLDM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.57
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  104
  106
  109
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  257
  270
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  152
  155
  159
  163
  168
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  195
  202
  211
  220
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  327
  343
  359
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  178
  152
  155
  159
  163
  168
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  195
  202
  211
  220
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  327
  343
  359
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
Operating income, $m
  -73
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
EBITDA, $m
  -55
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Earnings before tax, $m
  -80
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
Tax expense, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -76
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  306
  307
  315
  323
  332
  342
  353
  365
  378
  392
  407
  423
  440
  458
  478
  498
  520
  543
  568
  594
  621
  650
  680
  712
  746
  781
  819
  858
  899
  943
  989
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  247
  307
  315
  323
  332
  342
  353
  365
  378
  392
  407
  423
  440
  458
  478
  498
  520
  543
  568
  594
  621
  650
  680
  712
  746
  781
  819
  858
  899
  943
  989
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.421
  0.345
  0.346
  0.344
  0.343
  0.345
  0.346
  0.345
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.344
  0.344
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.346
  0.346
  0.345
  0.346
  0.344
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
Average production assets, $m
  102
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  333
Working capital, $m
  67
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Total debt, $m
  195
  200
  206
  212
  220
  228
  238
  248
  259
  270
  283
  296
  311
  326
  342
  360
  378
  397
  418
  440
  462
  486
  512
  539
  567
  597
  628
  661
  696
  732
  771
Total liabilities, $m
  253
  258
  264
  270
  278
  286
  296
  306
  317
  328
  341
  354
  369
  384
  400
  418
  436
  455
  476
  498
  520
  544
  570
  597
  625
  655
  686
  719
  754
  790
  829
Total equity, $m
  53
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  306
  308
  315
  322
  332
  341
  353
  365
  378
  391
  407
  423
  440
  458
  477
  499
  520
  543
  568
  594
  621
  649
  680
  712
  746
  782
  819
  858
  900
  943
  989
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.679
  4.010
  4.030
  4.060
  4.090
  4.130
  4.160
  4.190
  4.230
  4.260
  4.290
  4.330
  4.360
  4.390
  4.420
  4.450
  4.480
  4.510
  4.540
  4.570
  4.600
  4.620
  4.650
  4.670
  4.690
  4.710
  4.740
  4.760
  4.770
  4.790
  4.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.024
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -76
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  19
  20
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
Funds from operations, $m
  -34
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  -39
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  45
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -43
Free cash flow, $m
  6
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -155
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  61
  64
  67
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  74
  78
  82
  85
  90
  94
  98
  103
  109
  114
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
  185
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  62
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -35
  -40
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
Discount rate, %
 
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.92
  12.52
  13.15
  13.80
  14.49
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.42
  20.39
  21.41
  22.48
  23.61
  24.79
  26.03
  27.33
  28.70
  30.13
  31.64
  33.22
  34.88
  36.62
  38.45
  40.38
  42.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -32
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  63.9
  40.9
  26.1
  16.7
  10.7
  6.8
  4.4
  2.8
  1.8
  1.2
  0.8
  0.5
  0.4
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Fluidigm Corporation creates, manufactures, and markets technologies and life science tools focused on the exploration and analysis of single cells, as well as the industrial application of genomics. It offers C1 single-cell auto prep system that isolates and processes individual cells for genomic analysis; access array system, which enables automated polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based target enrichment, barcoding, and tagging of targeted sequencing libraries and facilitates parallel amplification; Juno system and integrated fluidic circuits (IFCs), which automate the preparation of samples for genomic analysis; and Callisto system and IFC that enable automated cell culture and combinatorial dosing on a single device. The company also provides Polaris system and IFCs; Biomark HD system, a PCR analytical instrument for gene expression analysis, single-cell targeted gene expression analysis, microRNA analysis, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping, and digital PCR; and Helios/CyTOF 2 system, a mass cytometry instrument that performs single-cell protein analysis. In addition, it offers C1, access array, dynamic array, digital array, flex six, and high-throughput C1 mRNA sequencing IFCs; and Delta Gene and SNP type assays, access array target-specific primers, and targeted sequencing prep primers, as well as Maxpar reagents. Further, the company provides imaging mass cytometer instrument and reagents, laser ablation module, and other Maxpar reagent products. It serves academic institutions; clinical laboratories; and pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and agricultural biotechnology companies through its direct sales force and support organizations, distributors, or sales agents. The company was formerly known as Mycometrix Corporation and changed its name to Fluidigm Corporation in April 2001. Fluidigm Corporation was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fluidigm (FLDM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.4
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -2.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -54.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 367.9%
Total Debt to Equity 367.9%
Interest Coverage -12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -20.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.4%
Return On Total Capital -27.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.5%
Return On Equity -90.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -57.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.6%
EBITDA Margin -53.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.3%
Operating Margin -71.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -76.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -58.2%
Net Profit Margin -73.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -55%
Effective Tax Rate 5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

FLDM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLDM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $104 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fluidigm. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fluidigm. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLDM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.3%, whose default value for FLDM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fluidigm, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fluidigm.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLDM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 143.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLDM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Fluidigm.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fluidigm. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLDM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLDM are equal to 97.6%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fluidigm operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLDM is equal to 7.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $53 million for Fluidigm - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.684 million for Fluidigm is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fluidigm at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Fluidigm Corp. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 03:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Fluidigm reports 1Q loss   [May-05-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Fluidigm Corporation (FLDM) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-15-16 11:19AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of FLDM Financial statements of FLDM Annual reports of FLDM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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