Intrinsic value of Flowserve - FLS

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$48.66

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$48.66

 
Intrinsic value

$24.29

 
Up/down potential

-50%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.50
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,991
  4,071
  4,164
  4,271
  4,392
  4,525
  4,671
  4,830
  5,002
  5,188
  5,387
  5,600
  5,827
  6,069
  6,326
  6,599
  6,888
  7,194
  7,518
  7,860
  8,221
  8,602
  9,004
  9,428
  9,874
  10,344
  10,839
  11,360
  11,908
  12,485
  13,092
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,289
  2,339
  2,396
  2,460
  2,531
  2,609
  2,694
  2,786
  2,885
  2,991
  2,984
  3,105
  3,234
  3,371
  3,516
  3,670
  3,833
  4,006
  4,188
  4,380
  4,583
  4,798
  5,023
  5,261
  5,511
  5,775
  6,053
  6,345
  6,652
  6,975
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,541
  1,579
  1,619
  1,659
  1,701
  1,743
  1,787
  1,831
  1,877
  1,924
  1,972
  2,021
  2,072
  2,124
  2,177
  2,231
  2,287
  2,344
  2,403
  2,463
  2,524
  2,588
  2,652
  2,719
  2,786
  2,856
  2,928
  3,001
  3,076
  3,153
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,714
  3,830
  3,918
  4,015
  4,119
  4,232
  4,352
  4,481
  4,617
  4,762
  4,915
  4,956
  5,126
  5,306
  5,495
  5,693
  5,901
  6,120
  6,350
  6,591
  6,843
  7,107
  7,386
  7,675
  7,980
  8,297
  8,631
  8,981
  9,346
  9,728
  10,128
Operating income, $m
  277
  241
  246
  257
  272
  293
  319
  349
  385
  426
  472
  644
  701
  763
  832
  906
  987
  1,074
  1,168
  1,269
  1,378
  1,495
  1,619
  1,752
  1,895
  2,046
  2,208
  2,380
  2,563
  2,757
  2,964
EBITDA, $m
  394
  414
  420
  432
  450
  472
  500
  532
  571
  614
  662
  717
  776
  842
  914
  992
  1,076
  1,167
  1,266
  1,371
  1,485
  1,606
  1,736
  1,875
  2,023
  2,180
  2,348
  2,527
  2,717
  2,919
  3,133
Interest expense (income), $m
  57
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  141
  149
  159
  168
  179
  190
  201
  213
  226
  240
  254
  269
  284
Earnings before tax, $m
  223
  187
  190
  198
  211
  229
  251
  277
  309
  345
  386
  553
  604
  660
  722
  789
  863
  942
  1,028
  1,120
  1,219
  1,326
  1,440
  1,563
  1,693
  1,833
  1,982
  2,140
  2,309
  2,489
  2,679
Tax expense, $m
  75
  51
  51
  54
  57
  62
  68
  75
  83
  93
  104
  149
  163
  178
  195
  213
  233
  254
  277
  302
  329
  358
  389
  422
  457
  495
  535
  578
  623
  672
  723
Net income, $m
  145
  137
  139
  145
  154
  167
  183
  203
  225
  252
  282
  403
  441
  482
  527
  576
  630
  688
  750
  818
  890
  968
  1,052
  1,141
  1,236
  1,338
  1,447
  1,562
  1,686
  1,817
  1,956

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  367
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,743
  4,464
  4,566
  4,684
  4,815
  4,961
  5,122
  5,296
  5,485
  5,688
  5,906
  6,140
  6,389
  6,655
  6,937
  7,236
  7,553
  7,889
  8,243
  8,619
  9,015
  9,432
  9,873
  10,338
  10,827
  11,342
  11,885
  12,456
  13,057
  13,690
  14,355
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,376
  4,464
  4,566
  4,684
  4,815
  4,961
  5,122
  5,296
  5,485
  5,688
  5,906
  6,140
  6,389
  6,655
  6,937
  7,236
  7,553
  7,889
  8,243
  8,619
  9,015
  9,432
  9,873
  10,338
  10,827
  11,342
  11,885
  12,456
  13,057
  13,690
  14,355
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
  0.912
Average production assets, $m
  964
  981
  1,004
  1,029
  1,058
  1,090
  1,126
  1,164
  1,206
  1,250
  1,298
  1,350
  1,404
  1,463
  1,525
  1,590
  1,660
  1,734
  1,812
  1,894
  1,981
  2,073
  2,170
  2,272
  2,380
  2,493
  2,612
  2,738
  2,870
  3,009
  3,155
Working capital, $m
  1,153
  887
  908
  931
  957
  986
  1,018
  1,053
  1,090
  1,131
  1,174
  1,221
  1,270
  1,323
  1,379
  1,439
  1,502
  1,568
  1,639
  1,714
  1,792
  1,875
  1,963
  2,055
  2,153
  2,255
  2,363
  2,476
  2,596
  2,722
  2,854
Total debt, $m
  1,571
  1,547
  1,618
  1,698
  1,789
  1,889
  2,000
  2,120
  2,250
  2,389
  2,540
  2,700
  2,872
  3,054
  3,248
  3,454
  3,672
  3,903
  4,148
  4,406
  4,678
  4,965
  5,269
  5,588
  5,925
  6,280
  6,653
  7,046
  7,459
  7,895
  8,352
Total liabilities, $m
  3,095
  3,071
  3,142
  3,222
  3,313
  3,413
  3,524
  3,644
  3,774
  3,913
  4,064
  4,224
  4,396
  4,578
  4,772
  4,978
  5,196
  5,427
  5,672
  5,930
  6,202
  6,489
  6,793
  7,112
  7,449
  7,804
  8,177
  8,570
  8,983
  9,419
  9,876
Total equity, $m
  1,648
  1,393
  1,425
  1,461
  1,502
  1,548
  1,598
  1,652
  1,711
  1,775
  1,843
  1,916
  1,993
  2,076
  2,164
  2,258
  2,356
  2,461
  2,572
  2,689
  2,813
  2,943
  3,080
  3,225
  3,378
  3,539
  3,708
  3,886
  4,074
  4,271
  4,479
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,743
  4,464
  4,567
  4,683
  4,815
  4,961
  5,122
  5,296
  5,485
  5,688
  5,907
  6,140
  6,389
  6,654
  6,936
  7,236
  7,552
  7,888
  8,244
  8,619
  9,015
  9,432
  9,873
  10,337
  10,827
  11,343
  11,885
  12,456
  13,057
  13,690
  14,355
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.953
  1.110
  1.140
  1.160
  1.190
  1.220
  1.250
  1.280
  1.310
  1.350
  1.380
  1.410
  1.440
  1.470
  1.500
  1.530
  1.560
  1.590
  1.610
  1.640
  1.660
  1.690
  1.710
  1.730
  1.750
  1.770
  1.790
  1.810
  1.830
  1.850
  1.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.293
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  145
  137
  139
  145
  154
  167
  183
  203
  225
  252
  282
  403
  441
  482
  527
  576
  630
  688
  750
  818
  890
  968
  1,052
  1,141
  1,236
  1,338
  1,447
  1,562
  1,686
  1,817
  1,956
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  117
  173
  174
  176
  177
  179
  181
  183
  185
  188
  190
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  310
  313
  321
  331
  346
  364
  386
  411
  440
  472
  476
  516
  560
  609
  662
  719
  781
  848
  920
  997
  1,080
  1,168
  1,263
  1,364
  1,472
  1,587
  1,710
  1,840
  1,978
  2,126
Change in working capital, $m
  -129
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
Cash from operations, $m
  228
  268
  293
  297
  305
  317
  332
  351
  373
  399
  429
  430
  467
  508
  553
  602
  656
  714
  777
  845
  918
  996
  1,081
  1,171
  1,267
  1,370
  1,479
  1,596
  1,720
  1,853
  1,993
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
New CAPEX, $m
  -90
  -18
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -70
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -308
Free cash flow, $m
  137
  199
  218
  218
  221
  228
  238
  252
  269
  290
  314
  308
  339
  374
  412
  454
  501
  551
  606
  665
  729
  798
  872
  952
  1,037
  1,128
  1,226
  1,330
  1,441
  1,559
  1,685
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -37
  61
  71
  81
  91
  100
  110
  120
  130
  140
  150
  161
  171
  183
  194
  206
  218
  231
  244
  258
  272
  287
  303
  320
  337
  355
  373
  393
  414
  435
  458
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -33
  61
  71
  81
  91
  100
  110
  120
  130
  140
  150
  161
  171
  183
  194
  206
  218
  231
  244
  258
  272
  287
  303
  320
  337
  355
  373
  393
  414
  435
  458
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  99
  260
  288
  298
  312
  328
  349
  372
  399
  430
  464
  469
  511
  556
  606
  660
  719
  782
  850
  923
  1,002
  1,086
  1,175
  1,271
  1,374
  1,483
  1,599
  1,723
  1,855
  1,995
  2,143
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  18
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -208
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  282
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  515
  256
  262
  271
  283
  299
  318
  340
  366
  396
  396
  433
  474
  518
  567
  620
  677
  739
  806
  878
  955
  1,038
  1,126
  1,221
  1,322
  1,430
  1,545
  1,667
  1,797
  1,936
Discount rate, %
 
  6.40
  6.72
  7.06
  7.41
  7.78
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.93
  10.42
  10.95
  11.49
  12.07
  12.67
  13.31
  13.97
  14.67
  15.40
  16.17
  16.98
  17.83
  18.72
  19.66
  20.64
  21.67
  22.76
  23.89
  25.09
  26.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  484
  225
  213
  203
  194
  186
  179
  171
  162
  154
  133
  125
  115
  105
  95
  84
  73
  63
  53
  44
  35
  28
  22
  16
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Flowserve Corporation designs, manufactures, distributes, and services industrial flow management equipment worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Engineered Product Division (EPD), Industrial Product Division (IPD), and Flow Control Division (FCD). The EPD segment offers custom and other engineered pumps and pump systems, mechanical seals, auxiliary systems, replacement parts, and related services, as well as manufactures gas-lubricated mechanical seal that is used in high-speed compressors. The IPD segment provides pre-configured engineered pumps and pump systems, and related products and services, including submersible motors and specialty products. The FCD segment offers industrial valve and automation solutions comprising isolation and control valves, actuation, controls, and related equipment; and energy management products, such as steam traps, boiler controls and condensate, and energy recovery systems. The FCD segmentÂ’s products are used to control, direct, and manage the flow of liquids and gases. The company also offers aftermarket equipment services consisting of installation, advanced diagnostics, repair, and retrofitting. It primarily serves oil and gas, chemical, power generation, and water management markets, as well as general industries that include mining and ore processing, pharmaceuticals, pulp and paper, food and beverage, and other smaller applications. The company distributes its products through direct sales, distributors, and sales representatives. Flowserve Corporation was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Flowserve (FLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 43.6
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 45.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 90.2%
Total Debt to Equity 95.3%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Return On Equity 8.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
EBITDA Margin 9.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Operating Margin 6.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Net Profit Margin 3.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Effective Tax Rate 33.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 67.6%

FLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3991 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Flowserve. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Flowserve. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.4%, whose default value for FLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Flowserve, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Flowserve.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 56.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1503 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for Flowserve.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Flowserve. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLS are equal to 24.1%.

Life of production assets of 18.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Flowserve operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLS is equal to 21.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1648 million for Flowserve - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 131.764 million for Flowserve is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Flowserve at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.4 billion.


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▶ Flowserve to Present at Baird's 2016 Industrial Conference   [Nov-07-16 04:41PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Flowserve Announces Executive Leadership Transition Plan   [Sep-22-16 04:59PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of FLS Financial statements of FLS
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