Intrinsic value of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A - FLWS

Previous Close

$10.75

  Intrinsic Value

$11.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+10%

Previous close

$10.75

 
Intrinsic value

$11.78

 
Up/down potential

+10%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLWS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.79
  2.60
  2.84
  3.06
  3.25
  3.43
  3.58
  3.72
  3.85
  3.97
  4.07
  4.16
  4.25
  4.32
  4.39
  4.45
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  1,194
  1,225
  1,260
  1,298
  1,341
  1,386
  1,436
  1,490
  1,547
  1,608
  1,674
  1,744
  1,818
  1,896
  1,979
  2,067
  2,161
  2,259
  2,363
  2,473
  2,588
  2,710
  2,838
  2,974
  3,116
  3,266
  3,424
  3,589
  3,764
  3,947
  4,140
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  992
  1,020
  1,051
  1,085
  1,122
  1,162
  1,205
  1,251
  1,301
  1,353
  1,403
  1,463
  1,526
  1,593
  1,664
  1,739
  1,818
  1,902
  1,990
  2,083
  2,181
  2,284
  2,393
  2,508
  2,628
  2,755
  2,888
  3,029
  3,176
  3,332
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  190
  194
  199
  204
  209
  215
  220
  225
  231
  237
  243
  249
  255
  261
  268
  275
  281
  289
  296
  303
  311
  318
  326
  335
  343
  352
  360
  369
  379
  388
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,147
  1,182
  1,214
  1,250
  1,289
  1,331
  1,377
  1,425
  1,476
  1,532
  1,590
  1,646
  1,712
  1,781
  1,854
  1,932
  2,014
  2,099
  2,191
  2,286
  2,386
  2,492
  2,602
  2,719
  2,843
  2,971
  3,107
  3,248
  3,398
  3,555
  3,720
Operating income, $m
  46
  43
  45
  48
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  77
  84
  98
  106
  115
  125
  136
  147
  160
  173
  187
  202
  218
  236
  254
  274
  295
  317
  341
  366
  392
  420
EBITDA, $m
  79
  76
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  103
  110
  117
  126
  135
  145
  156
  167
  180
  193
  208
  223
  240
  257
  276
  296
  318
  340
  364
  390
  417
  446
  476
  509
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  56
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  59
  64
  70
  77
  90
  98
  107
  116
  126
  137
  148
  161
  174
  189
  204
  220
  238
  256
  276
  297
  320
  343
  369
  395
Tax expense, $m
  12
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  75
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
Net income, $m
  44
  29
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  56
  66
  72
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  117
  127
  138
  149
  161
  174
  187
  202
  217
  233
  251
  269
  289

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  150
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  552
  412
  424
  437
  451
  467
  484
  502
  521
  542
  564
  587
  612
  638
  666
  696
  727
  761
  796
  833
  871
  912
  956
  1,001
  1,049
  1,100
  1,153
  1,209
  1,267
  1,329
  1,394
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  402
  412
  424
  437
  451
  467
  484
  502
  521
  542
  564
  587
  612
  638
  666
  696
  727
  761
  796
  833
  871
  912
  956
  1,001
  1,049
  1,100
  1,153
  1,209
  1,267
  1,329
  1,394
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.970
  2.973
  2.972
  2.970
  2.973
  2.968
  2.967
  2.968
  2.969
  2.967
  2.968
  2.971
  2.971
  2.972
  2.971
  2.970
  2.972
  2.968
  2.969
  2.969
  2.971
  2.971
  2.969
  2.971
  2.970
  2.969
  2.970
  2.969
  2.971
  2.970
  2.970
Average production assets, $m
  237
  243
  249
  257
  265
  275
  284
  295
  306
  318
  331
  345
  360
  375
  392
  409
  428
  447
  468
  490
  512
  537
  562
  589
  617
  647
  678
  711
  745
  782
  820
Working capital, $m
  132
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
Total debt, $m
  118
  118
  125
  134
  143
  153
  164
  176
  189
  202
  217
  232
  248
  266
  284
  303
  324
  345
  368
  392
  418
  445
  473
  503
  534
  567
  602
  638
  677
  717
  760
Total liabilities, $m
  270
  270
  277
  286
  295
  305
  316
  328
  341
  354
  369
  384
  400
  418
  436
  455
  476
  497
  520
  544
  570
  597
  625
  655
  686
  719
  754
  790
  829
  869
  912
Total equity, $m
  282
  143
  147
  151
  156
  162
  167
  174
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  302
  316
  331
  346
  363
  380
  399
  418
  438
  460
  482
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  552
  413
  424
  437
  451
  467
  483
  502
  521
  541
  564
  587
  612
  639
  667
  696
  728
  760
  795
  832
  872
  913
  956
  1,001
  1,049
  1,099
  1,153
  1,208
  1,267
  1,329
  1,394
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.418
  0.830
  0.850
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.980
  1.010
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.290
  1.310
  1.340
  1.360
  1.390
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.540
  1.560
  1.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.328
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  44
  29
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  56
  66
  72
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  117
  127
  138
  149
  161
  174
  187
  202
  217
  233
  251
  269
  289
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  33
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  103
  110
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  168
  180
  193
  207
  221
  237
  253
  271
  290
  310
  331
  353
  377
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  61
  61
  64
  66
  69
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
  119
  127
  137
  147
  157
  169
  181
  194
  208
  222
  238
  255
  272
  291
  311
  332
  355
  378
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
Cash from investing activities, $m
  78
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
Free cash flow, $m
  139
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  38
  40
  44
  47
  51
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  128
  139
  151
  163
  176
  190
  205
  221
  238
  256
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  122
  37
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  105
  113
  123
  133
  144
  155
  168
  181
  195
  209
  225
  242
  260
  279
  299
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -39
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  143
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  176
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  130
  141
  153
  165
  178
  192
  207
  223
  239
  257
  276
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  169
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  30
  29
  29
  28
  27
  25
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  22
  20
  18
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
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  5
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  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. is a provider of gourmet food and floral gifts for all occasions. The Company offers gifts for every occasion, including fresh flowers and a selection of plants, gift baskets, gourmet foods, confections, candles, balloons and stuffed animals. The Company operates through three business segments: Consumer Floral, Gourmet Food and Gift Baskets, and BloomNet Wire Service. The Consumer Floral segment includes the operations of the Company's flagship brand, 1-800-Flowers.com, FruitBouquets.com and Flowerama. The Gourmet Food and Gift Baskets segment includes the operations of Harry & David (which includes Wolferman's, Moose Munch and Stockyards.com), Cheryl's (which includes Mrs. Beasley's), The Popcorn Factory, DesignPac and 1-800-Baskets. The BloomNet Wire Service segment includes the operations of BloomNet and Napco.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A (FLWS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.9
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 21
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 39.4%
Total Debt to Equity 41.8%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 11.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Equity 16.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.7%
EBITDA Margin 7.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Effective Tax Rate 21.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

FLWS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLWS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1194 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLWS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FLWS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLWS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $185 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLWS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLWS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLWS are equal to 19.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLWS is equal to -0.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $282 million for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 64.879 million for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. Launches Simply Chocolate   [Nov-17-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Stocks Under $10 That Soared Today   [Nov-14-17 05:07PM  Zacks]
▶ 1-800-Flowers.com reports 1Q loss   [07:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Napco Unveils 2018 Spring & Garden Trends Report   [Oct-23-17 03:26PM  Business Wire]
▶ 1-800-Flowers.com misses Street 4Q forecasts   [Aug-24-17 09:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ BloomNet® Launches New Redesigned Website   [Jun-21-17 03:36PM  Business Wire]
▶ Your Next Customer Service Rep Might Be a Bot   [May-25-17 08:08PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Opening Bell, May 9, 21017   [09:29AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Today's Bell Ringer, May 9, 2017   [09:15AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ 1-800-Flowers.com reports 3Q loss   [07:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Facebooks F8 Conference: What to Expect?   [07:09AM  Investopedia]
▶ 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, INC. Announces "Tech Your Mom"   [Apr-03-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 1-800-Flowers sells chocolate brands   [Mar-16-17 02:35PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ 1-800-Flowers sells chocolate brands   [02:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Harry & David adding 100 full-time jobs in Licking County   [12:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Floriology Institute Takes Education On the Road in 2017   [Mar-02-17 03:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flower Plays On Valentine's Day   [Feb-13-17 02:41PM  Benzinga]
▶ Company Profile for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc.   [10:10AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of FLWS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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