Intrinsic value of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A - FLWS

Previous Close

$9.25

  Intrinsic Value

$8.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-8%

  Value-price divergence*

-65%

Previous close

$9.25

 
Intrinsic value

$8.46

 
Up/down potential

-8%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-65%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLWS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.55
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  1,173
  1,226
  1,282
  1,340
  1,403
  1,468
  1,537
  1,610
  1,687
  1,767
  1,852
  1,942
  2,036
  2,135
  2,239
  2,348
  2,463
  2,584
  2,711
  2,844
  2,985
  3,132
  3,287
  3,450
  3,621
  3,800
  3,989
  4,187
  4,395
  4,614
  4,843
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,105
  1,155
  1,208
  1,264
  1,322
  1,384
  1,449
  1,518
  1,590
  1,666
  1,738
  1,823
  1,911
  2,004
  2,102
  2,205
  2,313
  2,427
  2,547
  2,672
  2,804
  2,943
  3,089
  3,242
  3,403
  3,571
  3,749
  3,935
  4,131
  4,337
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  151
  155
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,130
  1,181
  1,233
  1,288
  1,346
  1,406
  1,470
  1,537
  1,608
  1,682
  1,761
  1,835
  1,923
  2,013
  2,109
  2,209
  2,315
  2,426
  2,542
  2,665
  2,793
  2,928
  3,070
  3,220
  3,376
  3,540
  3,712
  3,893
  4,083
  4,282
  4,492
Operating income, $m
  43
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  106
  114
  121
  130
  139
  148
  158
  168
  179
  191
  203
  217
  230
  245
  260
  277
  294
  312
  331
  352
EBITDA, $m
  75
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  138
  146
  156
  166
  176
  187
  199
  211
  225
  238
  253
  269
  285
  302
  320
  339
  360
  381
  404
  427
  452
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  51
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  158
  168
  179
  190
  202
  215
  228
  243
  258
  274
  290
  308
  327
Tax expense, $m
  15
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
Net income, $m
  37
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  102
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  188
  200
  212
  225
  238

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  503
  496
  519
  543
  568
  595
  623
  652
  683
  716
  750
  786
  824
  865
  907
  951
  998
  1,046
  1,098
  1,152
  1,209
  1,269
  1,331
  1,397
  1,466
  1,539
  1,616
  1,696
  1,780
  1,869
  1,962
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  475
  496
  519
  543
  568
  595
  623
  652
  683
  716
  750
  786
  824
  865
  907
  951
  998
  1,046
  1,098
  1,152
  1,209
  1,269
  1,331
  1,397
  1,466
  1,539
  1,616
  1,696
  1,780
  1,869
  1,962
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.469
  2.472
  2.470
  2.468
  2.470
  2.467
  2.467
  2.469
  2.470
  2.468
  2.469
  2.471
  2.471
  2.468
  2.469
  2.469
  2.468
  2.470
  2.469
  2.469
  2.469
  2.468
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.469
  2.468
  2.469
  2.469
  2.469
  2.468
Average production assets, $m
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  378
  396
  416
  436
  457
  479
  502
  527
  553
  580
  609
  639
  670
  703
  738
  775
  813
  854
  896
  941
  987
  1,036
Working capital, $m
  46
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
Total debt, $m
  29
  20
  31
  43
  56
  69
  83
  98
  114
  130
  148
  166
  185
  206
  227
  249
  273
  297
  323
  351
  379
  410
  441
  475
  510
  546
  585
  625
  668
  713
  760
Total liabilities, $m
  260
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
  397
  416
  437
  458
  480
  504
  528
  554
  582
  610
  641
  672
  706
  741
  777
  816
  856
  899
  944
  991
Total equity, $m
  243
  246
  257
  269
  281
  294
  308
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
  428
  449
  471
  494
  518
  543
  570
  598
  628
  659
  692
  726
  762
  800
  839
  881
  925
  971
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  503
  497
  519
  543
  568
  594
  622
  652
  683
  715
  750
  786
  824
  865
  907
  951
  998
  1,046
  1,097
  1,152
  1,208
  1,269
  1,331
  1,398
  1,467
  1,539
  1,616
  1,695
  1,780
  1,869
  1,962
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.119
  0.080
  0.120
  0.160
  0.200
  0.240
  0.270
  0.300
  0.340
  0.370
  0.400
  0.430
  0.450
  0.480
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.453
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  37
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  102
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  188
  200
  212
  225
  238
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
Funds from operations, $m
  39
  66
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  110
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  271
  287
  303
  321
  339
Change in working capital, $m
  -19
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Cash from operations, $m
  58
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  237
  250
  265
  280
  297
  314
  332
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
Free cash flow, $m
  24
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  49
  52
  54
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  176
  187
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -24
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  154
  163
  173
  184
  196
  208
  220
  234
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -35
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  36
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  35
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  28
  27
  26
  25
  24
  22
  21
  19
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  16
  14
  13
  11
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

1-800-Flowers.com, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides gourmet food and floral gifts for various occasions in the United States. It operates in three segments: Consumer Floral; Gourmet Food and Gift Baskets; and BloomNet Wire Service. The company offers a range of products, including fresh-cut flowers, floral and fruit arrangements and plants, gifts, popcorn, gourmet foods and gift baskets, cookies, chocolates, candies, wine, and gift-quality fruits, as well as confections, candles, balloons, and plush stuffed animals. It provides floral wire service through mybloomnet.net; gourmet gifts, such as fruits and other gourmet items through 1-877-322-1200 or harryanddavid.com; popcorn and specialty treats from 1-800-541-2676 or thepopcornfactory.com; cookies and baked gifts from 1-800-443-8124 or cheryls.com; chocolates and confections from fanniemay.com and harrylondon.com; gift baskets and towers from 1800baskets.com; English muffins and other breakfast treats from 1-800-999-1910 or wolfermans.com; carved fresh fruit arrangements from fruitbouquets.com; and steaks and chops from stockyards.com. The company offers its products through florist and gift shops to consumers and wholesalers. As of July 3, 2016, it operated one floral retail store in New York and eight floral retail stores in the mid-west. In addition, the company has 175 floral franchised stores located in the United States. 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Carle Place, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A (FLWS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.7
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 3.7%
Total Debt to Equity 11.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Total Capital 12.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Equity 16.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.1%
EBITDA Margin 7.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Operating Margin 3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 29.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

FLWS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLWS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1173 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLWS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FLWS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLWS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $74 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLWS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLWS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLWS are equal to 21.4%.

Life of production assets of 10.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLWS is equal to 3.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $243 million for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 64.283 million for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Opening Bell, May 9, 21017   [09:29AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Today's Bell Ringer, May 9, 2017   [09:15AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ 1-800-Flowers.com reports 3Q loss   [07:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Facebooks F8 Conference: What to Expect?   [07:09AM  Investopedia]
▶ 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, INC. Announces "Tech Your Mom"   [Apr-03-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 1-800-Flowers sells chocolate brands   [Mar-16-17 02:35PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ 1-800-Flowers sells chocolate brands   [02:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Harry & David adding 100 full-time jobs in Licking County   [12:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Floriology Institute Takes Education On the Road in 2017   [Mar-02-17 03:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flower Plays On Valentine's Day   [Feb-13-17 02:41PM  Benzinga]
▶ Company Profile for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc.   [10:10AM  Business Wire]
▶ 7 Analyst Stocks Under $10 With Massive Upside   [Aug-27-16 10:20AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
Stock chart of FLWS Financial statements of FLWS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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