Intrinsic value of Flexsteel Industries - FLXS

Previous Close

$48.15

  Intrinsic Value

$40.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-16%

  Value-price divergence*

-109%

Previous close

$48.15

 
Intrinsic value

$40.24

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-109%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLXS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.07
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  500
  510
  522
  535
  550
  567
  585
  605
  627
  650
  675
  702
  730
  760
  793
  827
  863
  901
  942
  985
  1,030
  1,078
  1,128
  1,181
  1,237
  1,296
  1,358
  1,423
  1,492
  1,564
  1,640
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  464
  475
  487
  501
  516
  533
  551
  570
  591
  614
  638
  664
  692
  721
  752
  785
  820
  857
  896
  937
  981
  1,027
  1,075
  1,126
  1,179
  1,236
  1,295
  1,358
  1,423
  1,493
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
Total operating expenses, $m
  462
  471
  482
  495
  509
  524
  541
  559
  579
  600
  623
  647
  673
  702
  731
  762
  795
  831
  868
  907
  948
  993
  1,039
  1,087
  1,139
  1,192
  1,249
  1,309
  1,372
  1,437
  1,508
Operating income, $m
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  133
EBITDA, $m
  46
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
Tax expense, $m
  14
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Net income, $m
  24
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  247
  214
  219
  225
  231
  238
  246
  254
  263
  273
  283
  295
  307
  319
  333
  347
  362
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  520
  544
  570
  598
  627
  657
  689
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  210
  214
  219
  225
  231
  238
  246
  254
  263
  273
  283
  295
  307
  319
  333
  347
  362
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  520
  544
  570
  598
  627
  657
  689
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.381
  2.383
  2.384
  2.378
  2.381
  2.382
  2.378
  2.382
  2.384
  2.381
  2.385
  2.380
  2.378
  2.382
  2.381
  2.383
  2.384
  2.377
  2.379
  2.379
  2.379
  2.380
  2.380
  2.381
  2.379
  2.382
  2.382
  2.380
  2.380
  2.381
  2.380
Average production assets, $m
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
Working capital, $m
  143
  108
  111
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
Total liabilities, $m
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
Total equity, $m
  210
  176
  181
  185
  190
  196
  203
  209
  217
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  341
  356
  373
  390
  409
  428
  448
  470
  493
  516
  541
  568
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  247
  214
  220
  225
  231
  238
  246
  254
  263
  273
  284
  295
  307
  319
  333
  347
  363
  379
  396
  414
  432
  453
  473
  496
  519
  544
  570
  598
  626
  657
  689
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824
  0.824

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
Funds from operations, $m
  74
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  106
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  54
  29
  30
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
Free cash flow, $m
  49
  26
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -9
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  41
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -23
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  60
  23
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  57
  21
  19
  18
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Flexsteel Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, imports, and markets residential and commercial upholstered and wood furniture products in the United States. It offers sofas, loveseats, chairs, reclining and rocker-reclining chairs, swivel rockers, sofa beds, convertible bedding units, occasional tables, desks, dining tables and chairs, and bedroom furniture for use in home, office, hotel, healthcare, and other commercial applications. The company distributes its products through its sales force and independent representatives. Flexsteel Industries, Inc. was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Dubuque, Iowa.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Flexsteel Industries (FLXS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.4
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -81.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Total Capital 11.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
EBITDA Margin 9.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 36.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 20.8%

FLXS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLXS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $500 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Flexsteel Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Flexsteel Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLXS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FLXS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Flexsteel Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Flexsteel Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLXS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $7 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLXS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Flexsteel Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Flexsteel Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLXS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLXS are equal to 6.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Flexsteel Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLXS is equal to 21.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $210 million for Flexsteel Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.494 million for Flexsteel Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Flexsteel Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
LZB La-Z-Boy 31.90 14.23  str.sell
HOFT Hooker Furnitu 42.55 251.01  str.buy
SCSS Select Comfort 32.25 30.12  hold
NVFY Nova Lifestyle 1.34 0.54  str.sell
ETH Ethan Allen In 30.75 34.02  hold
BSET Bassett Furnit 35.80 31.34  hold
NTZ Natuzzi ADR 2.55 0.73  str.sell
LEG Leggett&Platt 47.76 42.91  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Flexsteel posts 4Q profit   [Aug-15-17 11:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Fiscal Year Results   [06:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-06-17 03:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel posts 3Q profit   [Apr-20-17 06:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Third Quarter Results   [06:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-07-17 02:58PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel posts 2Q profit   [Feb-02-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Second Quarter Results   [06:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Flexsteel Industries, Inc. (FLXS)   [Dec-12-16 04:03AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Changes to Board of Directors   [Dec-07-16 05:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces 300th Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-06-16 10:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Reports First Quarter Results   [06:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Increases Dividend 11%   [Sep-13-16 01:11PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Fourth Quarter Results   [06:50PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-14-16 02:39PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Third Quarter Results   [06:55PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-08-16 11:56AM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Second Quarter Results   [06:50PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-08  02:52PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is DURECT Corporation (NASDAQ:DRRX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-06  05:59PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Flexsteel Industries, Inc. (FLXS) a Good Buy?   [Nov-29  01:52AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Flexsteel Reports First Quarter Results   [07:15PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of FLXS Financial statements of FLXS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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