Intrinsic value of Flexsteel Industries - FLXS

Previous Close

$50.02

  Intrinsic Value

$33.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-33%

  Value-price divergence*

-20%

Previous close

$50.02

 
Intrinsic value

$33.35

 
Up/down potential

-33%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-20%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLXS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.20
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  469
  478
  489
  502
  516
  532
  549
  568
  588
  610
  633
  658
  685
  713
  743
  775
  809
  845
  883
  924
  966
  1,011
  1,058
  1,108
  1,160
  1,216
  1,274
  1,335
  1,399
  1,467
  1,538
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  442
  452
  463
  476
  491
  507
  524
  543
  563
  584
  607
  632
  658
  686
  716
  747
  780
  815
  853
  892
  933
  977
  1,023
  1,071
  1,122
  1,176
  1,232
  1,292
  1,354
  1,420
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  432
  442
  452
  463
  476
  491
  507
  524
  543
  563
  584
  607
  632
  658
  686
  716
  747
  780
  815
  853
  892
  933
  977
  1,023
  1,071
  1,122
  1,176
  1,232
  1,292
  1,354
  1,420
Operating income, $m
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
EBITDA, $m
  45
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
Tax expense, $m
  14
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Net income, $m
  24
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  270
  227
  233
  239
  245
  253
  261
  270
  280
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
  698
  732
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  223
  227
  233
  239
  245
  253
  261
  270
  280
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
  698
  732
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.103
  2.106
  2.099
  2.100
  2.106
  2.103
  2.103
  2.104
  2.100
  2.103
  2.103
  2.102
  2.101
  2.103
  2.099
  2.100
  2.101
  2.102
  2.102
  2.105
  2.105
  2.102
  2.103
  2.102
  2.101
  2.104
  2.102
  2.102
  2.104
  2.102
  2.101
Average production assets, $m
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
Working capital, $m
  158
  113
  116
  119
  122
  126
  130
  135
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
  365
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  28
  31
  35
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
Total liabilities, $m
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Total equity, $m
  231
  188
  192
  197
  202
  209
  215
  223
  231
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  292
  304
  318
  332
  347
  362
  379
  397
  415
  435
  455
  477
  500
  524
  549
  576
  604
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  270
  228
  233
  239
  245
  253
  261
  270
  280
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  421
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
  698
  732
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825
  0.825

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Funds from operations, $m
  20
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  111
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  26
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -30
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -21
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  68
  20
  20
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  65
  18
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Flexsteel Industries, Inc. is a manufacturer, importer, marketer and distributor of residential and commercial upholstered and wood furniture products in the United States. The Company offers its products for contract under categories, such as hospitality, healthcare, senior living, government and commercial office. It offers furniture for common areas, guest rooms, dining areas, patient rooms, resident rooms, work spaces, reception areas, administrative and collaborative spaces. Its range of offering includes chairs, sofas, benches, ottomans, pillows, barstools, tables, headboards, group seating, desks & hutches, causeway collection, presentation boards, bookcases, recliners and storage. It also offers sectionals, reclining furniture, lift reclining furniture, media consoles, night stands and side tables, among others, for home. It offers various products for recreation, such as bucket seats, fold-n-tumble, dinette seating, helm seating and modular sectionals.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Flexsteel Industries (FLXS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.3
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15
Price to Free Cash Flow 30.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 85.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 26.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 10.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
EBITDA Margin 9.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Operating Margin 7.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
Payout Ratio 25%

FLXS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLXS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $469 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Flexsteel Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Flexsteel Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLXS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FLXS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Flexsteel Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Flexsteel Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLXS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLXS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Flexsteel Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Flexsteel Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLXS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLXS are equal to 14.3%.

Life of production assets of 8.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Flexsteel Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLXS is equal to 23.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $231 million for Flexsteel Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.946 million for Flexsteel Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Flexsteel Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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HOFT Hooker Furnitu 49.10 254.66  str.buy
SCSS Select Comfort 30.55 21.63  sell
NVFY Nova Lifestyle 1.53 0.58  str.sell
ETH Ethan Allen In 29.75 24.97  hold
BSET Bassett Furnit 38.95 33.59  hold
NTZ Natuzzi ADR 2.00 0.71  str.sell
LEG Leggett&Platt 47.79 44.68  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Flexsteel Increases Dividend 10%   [Sep-12-17 11:22AM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel posts 4Q profit   [Aug-15-17 11:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Fiscal Year Results   [06:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-06-17 03:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel posts 3Q profit   [Apr-20-17 06:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Third Quarter Results   [06:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-07-17 02:58PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel posts 2Q profit   [Feb-02-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Second Quarter Results   [06:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Flexsteel Industries, Inc. (FLXS)   [Dec-12-16 04:03AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Changes to Board of Directors   [Dec-07-16 05:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces 300th Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-06-16 10:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Reports First Quarter Results   [06:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Increases Dividend 11%   [Sep-13-16 01:11PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Fourth Quarter Results   [06:50PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-14-16 02:39PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Third Quarter Results   [06:55PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-08-16 11:56AM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Reports Second Quarter Results   [06:50PM  Business Wire]
▶ Flexsteel Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-08  02:52PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of FLXS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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