Intrinsic value of Fly Leasing ADR - FLY

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$13.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FLY.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -26.62
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  317
  441
  451
  462
  475
  490
  506
  523
  541
  562
  583
  606
  631
  657
  685
  714
  746
  779
  814
  851
  890
  931
  975
  1,020
  1,069
  1,120
  1,173
  1,230
  1,289
  1,351
  1,417
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  231
  237
  243
  250
  257
  265
  274
  284
  295
  306
  318
  331
  345
  360
  375
  391
  409
  427
  447
  467
  489
  512
  536
  561
  588
  616
  646
  677
  709
  744
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  258
  231
  237
  243
  250
  257
  265
  274
  284
  295
  306
  318
  331
  345
  360
  375
  391
  409
  427
  447
  467
  489
  512
  536
  561
  588
  616
  646
  677
  709
  744
Operating income, $m
  59
  209
  214
  220
  226
  233
  240
  248
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  325
  339
  354
  370
  387
  404
  423
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  584
  612
  642
  673
EBITDA, $m
  179
  372
  381
  390
  401
  413
  427
  441
  457
  474
  492
  512
  532
  555
  578
  603
  629
  657
  687
  718
  751
  786
  823
  862
  902
  945
  991
  1,038
  1,088
  1,141
  1,196
Interest expense (income), $m
  110
  117
  119
  122
  126
  130
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  187
  195
  205
  214
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
  286
  300
  315
  331
  348
  365
  384
  403
Earnings before tax, $m
  -36
  92
  95
  97
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
Tax expense, $m
  -7
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
Net income, $m
  -29
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  518
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,447
  3,193
  3,266
  3,350
  3,445
  3,549
  3,664
  3,788
  3,924
  4,069
  4,225
  4,392
  4,571
  4,760
  4,962
  5,176
  5,403
  5,643
  5,897
  6,165
  6,449
  6,747
  7,063
  7,395
  7,745
  8,114
  8,502
  8,911
  9,341
  9,793
  10,269
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,929
  3,193
  3,266
  3,350
  3,445
  3,549
  3,664
  3,788
  3,924
  4,069
  4,225
  4,392
  4,571
  4,760
  4,962
  5,176
  5,403
  5,643
  5,897
  6,165
  6,449
  6,747
  7,063
  7,395
  7,745
  8,114
  8,502
  8,911
  9,341
  9,793
  10,269
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.108
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
Average production assets, $m
  2,738
  1,936
  1,981
  2,032
  2,089
  2,152
  2,222
  2,297
  2,379
  2,467
  2,562
  2,663
  2,771
  2,887
  3,009
  3,139
  3,276
  3,422
  3,576
  3,738
  3,910
  4,091
  4,283
  4,484
  4,696
  4,920
  5,155
  5,403
  5,664
  5,938
  6,227
Working capital, $m
  0
  -282
  -288
  -295
  -304
  -313
  -323
  -334
  -346
  -359
  -373
  -387
  -403
  -420
  -438
  -456
  -476
  -498
  -520
  -544
  -569
  -595
  -623
  -652
  -683
  -715
  -750
  -786
  -824
  -864
  -906
Total debt, $m
  2,523
  2,432
  2,496
  2,570
  2,653
  2,745
  2,845
  2,955
  3,074
  3,202
  3,339
  3,486
  3,642
  3,809
  3,987
  4,175
  4,374
  4,585
  4,808
  5,044
  5,293
  5,556
  5,833
  6,125
  6,433
  6,757
  7,098
  7,457
  7,835
  8,233
  8,651
Total liabilities, $m
  2,854
  2,807
  2,871
  2,945
  3,028
  3,120
  3,220
  3,330
  3,449
  3,577
  3,714
  3,861
  4,017
  4,184
  4,362
  4,550
  4,749
  4,960
  5,183
  5,419
  5,668
  5,931
  6,208
  6,500
  6,808
  7,132
  7,473
  7,832
  8,210
  8,608
  9,026
Total equity, $m
  593
  386
  395
  405
  417
  429
  443
  458
  475
  492
  511
  531
  553
  576
  600
  626
  654
  683
  714
  746
  780
  816
  855
  895
  937
  982
  1,029
  1,078
  1,130
  1,185
  1,243
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,447
  3,193
  3,266
  3,350
  3,445
  3,549
  3,663
  3,788
  3,924
  4,069
  4,225
  4,392
  4,570
  4,760
  4,962
  5,176
  5,403
  5,643
  5,897
  6,165
  6,448
  6,747
  7,063
  7,395
  7,745
  8,114
  8,502
  8,910
  9,340
  9,793
  10,269
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.255
  6.290
  6.320
  6.340
  6.360
  6.390
  6.420
  6.450
  6.470
  6.500
  6.530
  6.560
  6.590
  6.610
  6.640
  6.670
  6.690
  6.720
  6.740
  6.760
  6.780
  6.810
  6.830
  6.850
  6.860
  6.880
  6.900
  6.920
  6.930
  6.950
  6.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.026
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  120
  163
  166
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  200
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  275
  288
  300
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  413
  433
  454
  476
  499
  523
Funds from operations, $m
  120
  230
  236
  242
  248
  256
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  315
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
  401
  419
  437
  457
  477
  499
  522
  546
  572
  598
  627
  656
  687
  720
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Cash from operations, $m
  150
  -1,568
  242
  249
  257
  265
  274
  284
  294
  305
  317
  329
  343
  357
  372
  388
  405
  422
  441
  461
  482
  504
  527
  551
  577
  604
  633
  663
  694
  727
  762
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -159
  -163
  -166
  -171
  -176
  -181
  -187
  -193
  -200
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -275
  -288
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -344
  -360
  -377
  -395
  -413
  -433
  -454
  -476
  -499
New CAPEX, $m
  -552
  -38
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -235
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -289
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -123
  -197
  -208
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -263
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -316
  -332
  -348
  -365
  -383
  -402
  -421
  -442
  -463
  -486
  -510
  -535
  -561
  -589
  -619
  -648
  -681
  -715
  -750
  -788
Free cash flow, $m
  27
  -1,766
  35
  32
  29
  26
  24
  21
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  3
  1
  0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -25
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  118
  47
  65
  74
  83
  92
  101
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
  341
  359
  378
  398
  418
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -40
  1,449
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  216
  1,496
  65
  74
  83
  92
  101
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
  341
  359
  378
  398
  418
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  242
  -1,719
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  167
  176
  184
  193
  203
  212
  223
  233
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
  375
  393
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  64
  -5
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  276
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  220
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320
  335
Discount rate, %
 
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.60
  17.43
  18.30
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.24
  23.36
  24.52
  25.75
  27.04
  28.39
  29.81
  31.30
  32.87
  34.51
  36.23
  38.05
  39.95
  41.95
  44.04
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  73
  68
  63
  57
  51
  45
  40
  34
  29
  24
  19
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5
  15.5

FLY Leasing Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in purchasing and leasing commercial aircraft under multi-year contracts to various airlines worldwide. As of December 31, 2015, it had a fleet of 80 aircraft, including 69 narrow-body passenger aircraft and 11 wide-body passenger aircraft. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Dun Laoghaire, Ireland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fly Leasing ADR (FLY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -15.3
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 425.5%
Total Debt to Equity 425.5%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital -0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -4.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 61.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.3%
Operating Margin 18.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Net Profit Margin -9.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 19.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

FLY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $432 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fly Leasing ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fly Leasing ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.7%, whose default value for FLY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fly Leasing ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fly Leasing ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 52.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Fly Leasing ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fly Leasing ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLY are equal to 439.4%.

Life of production assets of 11.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fly Leasing ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLY is equal to -63.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $657 million for Fly Leasing ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.956 million for Fly Leasing ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fly Leasing ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 16th   [May-16-17 10:29AM  Zacks]
▶ Fly Leasing beats 1Q profit forecasts   [07:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ FLY Leasing Reprices, Extends and Upsizes 2012 Term Loan   [May-01-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Small-Cap Stocks to Buy in April   [Apr-04-17 07:34AM  Motley Fool]
▶ FLY Leasing Posts Annual Report To Website   [Mar-31-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Fly Leasing reports 4Q loss   [07:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-14-16 08:29PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ FLY Leasing Extends 2012 Term Loan   [Oct-20-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ FLY Leasing Acquires Five Aircraft   [Jul-26-16 08:03AM  PR Newswire]
▶ FLY LEASING LTD Financials   [May-07-16 01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ FLY Leasing Addresses SEC Comments, Restates Financials   [May-02-16 05:36PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of FLY Financial statements of FLY Annual reports of FLY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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