Intrinsic value of Fly Leasing ADR - FLY

Previous Close

$13.76

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$13.76

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FLY.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -26.62
  2.40
  2.66
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  317
  361
  371
  382
  394
  407
  421
  436
  452
  470
  489
  509
  530
  553
  577
  602
  629
  657
  687
  719
  752
  788
  825
  864
  905
  948
  994
  1,042
  1,093
  1,146
  1,202
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  261
  268
  276
  284
  293
  303
  314
  326
  339
  352
  364
  380
  396
  413
  431
  450
  471
  492
  515
  539
  564
  591
  619
  648
  679
  712
  746
  783
  821
  861
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  258
  261
  268
  276
  284
  293
  303
  314
  326
  339
  352
  364
  380
  396
  413
  431
  450
  471
  492
  515
  539
  564
  591
  619
  648
  679
  712
  746
  783
  821
  861
Operating income, $m
  59
  101
  103
  106
  110
  113
  117
  122
  126
  131
  137
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
EBITDA, $m
  179
  465
  477
  491
  506
  523
  541
  561
  582
  604
  628
  654
  682
  711
  741
  774
  809
  845
  884
  925
  968
  1,013
  1,061
  1,111
  1,164
  1,220
  1,278
  1,340
  1,405
  1,473
  1,545
Interest expense (income), $m
  110
  152
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
Earnings before tax, $m
  -36
  -51
  -23
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -9
  -4
  0
  5
  11
  18
  24
  31
  38
  45
  52
  61
  69
  78
  87
  97
  108
  119
  131
  143
  156
  170
  184
  199
  215
Tax expense, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
Net income, $m
  -29
  -51
  -23
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -9
  -4
  0
  4
  8
  13
  18
  22
  27
  33
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  95
  104
  114
  124
  134
  145
  157

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  518
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,447
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,929
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.108
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  2,738
  3,623
  3,720
  3,827
  3,946
  4,076
  4,217
  4,370
  4,534
  4,710
  4,898
  5,099
  5,312
  5,539
  5,779
  6,034
  6,303
  6,588
  6,889
  7,206
  7,541
  7,894
  8,267
  8,659
  9,072
  9,507
  9,964
  10,446
  10,952
  11,485
  12,045
Working capital, $m
  0
  -2,989
  -3,068
  -3,157
  -3,255
  -3,362
  -3,479
  -3,605
  -3,740
  -3,885
  -4,040
  -4,206
  -4,382
  -4,568
  -4,767
  -4,977
  -5,199
  -5,434
  -5,682
  -5,944
  -6,220
  -6,511
  -6,818
  -7,142
  -7,483
  -7,841
  -8,219
  -8,616
  -9,034
  -9,473
  -9,935
Total debt, $m
  2,523
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
Total liabilities, $m
  2,854
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  593
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,447
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.255
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.026
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  -51
  -23
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -9
  -4
  0
  4
  8
  13
  18
  22
  27
  33
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  95
  104
  114
  124
  134
  145
  157
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  120
  364
  374
  385
  397
  410
  424
  439
  455
  473
  492
  510
  531
  554
  578
  603
  630
  659
  689
  721
  754
  789
  827
  866
  907
  951
  996
  1,045
  1,095
  1,148
  1,204
Funds from operations, $m
  120
  313
  351
  365
  380
  397
  415
  435
  456
  477
  500
  523
  549
  576
  605
  636
  669
  703
  739
  778
  818
  861
  906
  953
  1,003
  1,055
  1,110
  1,168
  1,230
  1,294
  1,361
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  -70
  -79
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -116
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -262
  -276
  -291
  -307
  -323
  -341
  -359
  -377
  -397
  -418
  -439
  -462
Cash from operations, $m
  150
  383
  431
  454
  478
  504
  532
  561
  591
  622
  655
  689
  725
  763
  804
  846
  891
  938
  987
  1,039
  1,094
  1,152
  1,213
  1,276
  1,343
  1,414
  1,488
  1,566
  1,647
  1,733
  1,823
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -354
  -362
  -372
  -383
  -395
  -408
  -422
  -437
  -453
  -471
  -490
  -510
  -531
  -554
  -578
  -603
  -630
  -659
  -689
  -721
  -754
  -789
  -827
  -866
  -907
  -951
  -996
  -1,045
  -1,095
  -1,148
New CAPEX, $m
  -552
  -82
  -96
  -108
  -119
  -130
  -141
  -153
  -164
  -176
  -188
  -201
  -213
  -227
  -240
  -255
  -269
  -285
  -301
  -318
  -335
  -353
  -372
  -392
  -413
  -435
  -458
  -481
  -506
  -533
  -560
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -123
  -436
  -458
  -480
  -502
  -525
  -549
  -575
  -601
  -629
  -659
  -691
  -723
  -758
  -794
  -833
  -872
  -915
  -960
  -1,007
  -1,056
  -1,107
  -1,161
  -1,219
  -1,279
  -1,342
  -1,409
  -1,477
  -1,551
  -1,628
  -1,708
Free cash flow, $m
  27
  -54
  -28
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -4
  -2
  2
  5
  9
  14
  18
  23
  28
  33
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  115
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  118
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -40
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  216
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  242
  -3
  -28
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -4
  -2
  2
  5
  9
  14
  18
  23
  28
  33
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  115
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  64
  -56
  -23
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -9
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -54
  -23
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -9
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  5
  9
  14
  18
  23
  28
  33
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  115
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -51
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -9
  -6
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Fly Leasing Limited is engaged in purchasing commercial aircraft, which it leases under multi-year contracts to a range of airlines throughout the world. The Company primarily acquires aircraft by entering into purchase and leaseback transactions with airlines for new aircraft; purchasing portfolios, which consists of aircraft of various types and ages, and acquiring individual aircraft. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 76 aircraft in its portfolio, of which 75 were held for operating lease and one was recorded as an investment in finance lease. As of December 31, 2016, its portfolio included 65 narrow-body passenger aircraft (including one freighter) and 11 wide-body passenger aircraft (including two freighters). Its aircraft are leased under multi-year contracts to various group of airlines in Europe; Asia and South Pacific; Mexico, South and Central America; North America, and Middle East and Africa. Its portfolio includes aircrafts, such as B737-700 and A320-200.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fly Leasing ADR (FLY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -15.3
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 425.5%
Total Debt to Equity 425.5%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital -0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -4.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 61.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.3%
Operating Margin 18.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Net Profit Margin -9.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 19.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

FLY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $353 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fly Leasing ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fly Leasing ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for FLY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fly Leasing ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fly Leasing ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 568.7% for Fly Leasing ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fly Leasing ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLY are equal to 1002.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fly Leasing ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLY is equal to -826.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Fly Leasing ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30 million for Fly Leasing ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fly Leasing ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
AYR Aircastle 20.29 6.17  str.sell
AL Air Lease 42.68 1,529.78  str.buy
ACY AeroCentury 15.75 342.27  str.buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Fly Leasing: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 06:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is FLY Leasing Limited (NYSE:FLY) A Financially Sound Company?   [Mar-08-18 08:19AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Fly Leasing misses 4Q profit forecasts   [07:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] AirAsia Strikes Deal on Huge Airbus Jet Sale   [Feb-28-18 11:24PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Fly Leasing Closes $332 Million Debt Facility   [Dec-11-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Fly Leasing reports 3Q loss   [Nov-09-17 07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Fly Leasing Reprices 2012 Term Loan   [Nov-01-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Fly Leasing beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-10-17 11:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ FLY Leasing Acquires Four New Aircraft   [Jul-10-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 16th   [May-16-17 10:29AM  Zacks]
▶ Fly Leasing beats 1Q profit forecasts   [07:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ FLY Leasing Reprices, Extends and Upsizes 2012 Term Loan   [May-01-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Small-Cap Stocks to Buy in April   [Apr-04-17 07:34AM  Motley Fool]
▶ FLY Leasing Posts Annual Report To Website   [Mar-31-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Fly Leasing reports 4Q loss   [07:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-14-16 08:29PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ FLY Leasing Extends 2012 Term Loan   [Oct-20-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ FLY Leasing Acquires Five Aircraft   [Jul-26-16 08:03AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of FLY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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