Intrinsic value of Fly Leasing ADR - FLY

Previous Close

$13.41

  Intrinsic Value

$4.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

  Value-price divergence*

-100%

Previous close

$13.41

 
Intrinsic value

$4.64

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-100%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FLY.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -26.62
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  317
  323
  331
  339
  349
  359
  371
  384
  397
  412
  428
  445
  463
  482
  502
  524
  547
  571
  597
  624
  653
  683
  715
  749
  784
  822
  861
  902
  946
  992
  1,040
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  194
  199
  204
  209
  214
  219
  225
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  261
  267
  274
  281
  288
  295
  302
  310
  317
  325
  334
  342
  350
  359
  368
  377
  387
  396
Total operating expenses, $m
  258
  269
  276
  283
  290
  298
  305
  314
  323
  332
  342
  352
  362
  373
  384
  396
  408
  421
  434
  447
  462
  476
  492
  508
  525
  541
  560
  578
  597
  618
  638
Operating income, $m
  59
  54
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  70
  74
  80
  86
  93
  101
  109
  118
  128
  139
  151
  163
  177
  191
  207
  223
  241
  260
  280
  301
  324
  348
  374
  401
EBITDA, $m
  179
  177
  180
  185
  191
  198
  206
  215
  225
  236
  248
  262
  276
  292
  309
  327
  346
  367
  389
  413
  438
  465
  494
  524
  557
  591
  627
  666
  706
  749
  795
Interest expense (income), $m
  110
  114
  116
  119
  123
  126
  131
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  173
  180
  189
  197
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
  288
  303
  318
  334
  351
  368
  387
Earnings before tax, $m
  -36
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -65
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -66
  -66
  -65
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -60
  -58
  -56
  -53
  -50
  -47
  -43
  -39
  -34
  -29
  -23
  -17
  -10
  -2
  6
  14
Tax expense, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
Net income, $m
  -29
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -65
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -66
  -66
  -65
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -60
  -58
  -56
  -53
  -50
  -47
  -43
  -39
  -34
  -29
  -23
  -17
  -10
  -2
  4
  11

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  518
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,447
  3,515
  3,595
  3,688
  3,792
  3,906
  4,033
  4,170
  4,319
  4,479
  4,651
  4,835
  5,031
  5,240
  5,462
  5,697
  5,947
  6,211
  6,491
  6,786
  7,098
  7,427
  7,774
  8,140
  8,525
  8,931
  9,358
  9,808
  10,281
  10,779
  11,303
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,929
  3,515
  3,595
  3,688
  3,792
  3,906
  4,033
  4,170
  4,319
  4,479
  4,651
  4,835
  5,031
  5,240
  5,462
  5,697
  5,947
  6,211
  6,491
  6,786
  7,098
  7,427
  7,774
  8,140
  8,525
  8,931
  9,358
  9,808
  10,281
  10,779
  11,303
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.108
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
Average production assets, $m
  2,738
  2,792
  2,857
  2,930
  3,012
  3,104
  3,204
  3,313
  3,431
  3,558
  3,695
  3,841
  3,997
  4,163
  4,339
  4,527
  4,725
  4,935
  5,157
  5,392
  5,639
  5,901
  6,176
  6,467
  6,773
  7,096
  7,435
  7,792
  8,168
  8,564
  8,980
Working capital, $m
  0
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
Total debt, $m
  2,523
  2,579
  2,646
  2,723
  2,808
  2,904
  3,008
  3,122
  3,245
  3,377
  3,520
  3,672
  3,834
  4,007
  4,191
  4,386
  4,593
  4,812
  5,043
  5,288
  5,546
  5,818
  6,106
  6,409
  6,728
  7,064
  7,417
  7,790
  8,182
  8,594
  9,028
Total liabilities, $m
  2,854
  2,910
  2,977
  3,054
  3,139
  3,235
  3,339
  3,453
  3,576
  3,708
  3,851
  4,003
  4,165
  4,338
  4,522
  4,717
  4,924
  5,143
  5,374
  5,619
  5,877
  6,149
  6,437
  6,740
  7,059
  7,395
  7,748
  8,121
  8,513
  8,925
  9,359
Total equity, $m
  593
  605
  618
  634
  652
  672
  694
  717
  743
  770
  800
  832
  865
  901
  939
  980
  1,023
  1,068
  1,116
  1,167
  1,221
  1,277
  1,337
  1,400
  1,466
  1,536
  1,610
  1,687
  1,768
  1,854
  1,944
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,447
  3,515
  3,595
  3,688
  3,791
  3,907
  4,033
  4,170
  4,319
  4,478
  4,651
  4,835
  5,030
  5,239
  5,461
  5,697
  5,947
  6,211
  6,490
  6,786
  7,098
  7,426
  7,774
  8,140
  8,525
  8,931
  9,358
  9,808
  10,281
  10,779
  11,303
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.255
  4.270
  4.280
  4.290
  4.310
  4.320
  4.340
  4.350
  4.370
  4.380
  4.400
  4.420
  4.430
  4.450
  4.460
  4.480
  4.490
  4.500
  4.520
  4.530
  4.540
  4.550
  4.570
  4.580
  4.590
  4.600
  4.610
  4.620
  4.630
  4.640
  4.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.026
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -65
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -66
  -66
  -65
  -64
  -63
  -62
  -60
  -58
  -56
  -53
  -50
  -47
  -43
  -39
  -34
  -29
  -23
  -17
  -10
  -2
  4
  11
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  120
  122
  125
  129
  132
  136
  141
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  183
  190
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  376
  394
Funds from operations, $m
  120
  63
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  80
  84
  90
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  138
  149
  160
  173
  186
  201
  216
  232
  250
  268
  288
  309
  332
  356
  380
  404
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  150
  64
  65
  67
  69
  73
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  105
  113
  121
  130
  140
  151
  163
  175
  189
  203
  219
  235
  253
  272
  292
  313
  336
  360
  384
  409
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -120
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -141
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -190
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -342
  -358
  -376
New CAPEX, $m
  -552
  -55
  -64
  -73
  -82
  -91
  -100
  -109
  -118
  -127
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -261
  -276
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -339
  -357
  -376
  -396
  -416
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -123
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -211
  -223
  -236
  -250
  -263
  -277
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -341
  -359
  -377
  -397
  -417
  -438
  -461
  -484
  -508
  -535
  -562
  -590
  -619
  -650
  -683
  -718
  -754
  -792
Free cash flow, $m
  27
  -111
  -122
  -132
  -141
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -203
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -237
  -246
  -254
  -263
  -272
  -281
  -290
  -299
  -308
  -318
  -328
  -337
  -347
  -358
  -370
  -383
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  118
  56
  67
  77
  86
  95
  104
  114
  123
  133
  142
  152
  162
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
  231
  245
  258
  272
  287
  303
  319
  336
  354
  372
  392
  412
  434
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -40
  71
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  89
  92
  94
  95
  97
  98
  99
  100
  101
  101
  101
  101
  101
  100
  100
  98
  97
  95
  93
  90
  87
  84
  82
  80
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  216
  127
  142
  155
  167
  179
  191
  203
  215
  227
  237
  249
  260
  272
  284
  296
  308
  320
  332
  346
  358
  372
  385
  400
  414
  429
  444
  459
  476
  494
  514
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  242
  16
  20
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  64
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -95
  -97
  -98
  -99
  -100
  -101
  -101
  -101
  -101
  -101
  -100
  -100
  -98
  -97
  -95
  -93
  -90
  -87
  -84
  -86
  -90
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -55
  -55
  -55
  -56
  -56
  -56
  -55
  -54
  -54
  -52
  -51
  -49
  -47
  -45
  -42
  -39
  -35
  -32
  -27
  -23
  -17
  -12
  -6
  1
  9
  16
  25
  34
  39
  41
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -50
  -44
  -40
  -35
  -31
  -26
  -22
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  85.8
  73.3
  62.4
  52.9
  44.9
  38.1
  32.3
  27.5
  23.4
  20.0
  17.1
  14.7
  12.7
  11.0
  9.6
  8.4
  7.4
  6.5
  5.8
  5.2
  4.6
  4.2
  3.8
  3.5
  3.2
  3.0
  2.8
  2.6
  2.4
  2.3

FLY Leasing Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in purchasing and leasing commercial aircraft under multi-year contracts to various airlines worldwide. As of December 31, 2015, it had a fleet of 80 aircraft, including 69 narrow-body passenger aircraft and 11 wide-body passenger aircraft. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Dun Laoghaire, Ireland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fly Leasing ADR (FLY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -14.9
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 425.5%
Total Debt to Equity 425.5%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital -0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -4.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 61.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.3%
Operating Margin 18.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Net Profit Margin -9.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 19.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

FLY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $317 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fly Leasing ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fly Leasing ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for FLY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fly Leasing ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fly Leasing ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 23.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $189 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Fly Leasing ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fly Leasing ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLY are equal to 863.6%.

Life of production assets of 22.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fly Leasing ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLY is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $593 million for Fly Leasing ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.956 million for Fly Leasing ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fly Leasing ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Fly Leasing beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-10-17 11:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ FLY Leasing Acquires Four New Aircraft   [Jul-10-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 16th   [May-16-17 10:29AM  Zacks]
▶ Fly Leasing beats 1Q profit forecasts   [07:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ FLY Leasing Reprices, Extends and Upsizes 2012 Term Loan   [May-01-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Small-Cap Stocks to Buy in April   [Apr-04-17 07:34AM  Motley Fool]
▶ FLY Leasing Posts Annual Report To Website   [Mar-31-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Fly Leasing reports 4Q loss   [07:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-14-16 08:29PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ FLY Leasing Extends 2012 Term Loan   [Oct-20-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ FLY Leasing Acquires Five Aircraft   [Jul-26-16 08:03AM  PR Newswire]
▶ FLY LEASING LTD Financials   [May-07-16 01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ FLY Leasing Addresses SEC Comments, Restates Financials   [May-02-16 05:36PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of FLY Financial statements of FLY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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