Intrinsic value of Fly Leasing ADR - FLY

Previous Close

$12.43

  Intrinsic Value

$5.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$12.43

 
Intrinsic value

$5.14

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FLY.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FLY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -26.62
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  317
  337
  357
  378
  401
  424
  448
  473
  500
  527
  556
  586
  618
  651
  685
  721
  759
  799
  840
  884
  930
  977
  1,028
  1,080
  1,135
  1,193
  1,254
  1,318
  1,384
  1,454
  1,528
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  239
  252
  265
  278
  292
  307
  323
  339
  356
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  194
  199
  204
  209
  214
  219
  225
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  261
  267
  274
  281
  288
  295
  302
  310
  317
  325
  334
  342
  350
  359
  368
  377
  387
  396
Total operating expenses, $m
  258
  272
  282
  292
  302
  313
  323
  335
  346
  359
  372
  385
  398
  413
  427
  442
  458
  474
  491
  508
  527
  545
  564
  586
  607
  628
  651
  675
  700
  726
  752
Operating income, $m
  59
  64
  75
  87
  99
  111
  124
  138
  153
  168
  185
  202
  220
  239
  259
  280
  302
  325
  350
  376
  403
  432
  463
  495
  529
  565
  603
  642
  684
  729
  776
EBITDA, $m
  179
  192
  211
  230
  250
  272
  294
  318
  342
  368
  395
  424
  454
  485
  518
  553
  589
  628
  668
  711
  755
  802
  852
  904
  959
  1,017
  1,078
  1,141
  1,209
  1,280
  1,354
Interest expense (income), $m
  110
  114
  111
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  163
  172
  183
  194
  205
  217
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  300
  317
  334
  352
  370
  390
  411
  433
  455
  479
  504
  531
Earnings before tax, $m
  -36
  -49
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -15
  -10
  -4
  2
  8
  15
  22
  29
  38
  46
  55
  65
  76
  87
  99
  111
  125
  139
  154
  170
  187
  205
  225
  245
Tax expense, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  37
  42
  46
  51
  55
  61
  66
Net income, $m
  -29
  -49
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -15
  -10
  -4
  1
  6
  11
  16
  21
  27
  34
  40
  48
  55
  63
  72
  81
  91
  101
  112
  124
  137
  150
  164
  179

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  518
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,447
  3,117
  3,307
  3,504
  3,710
  3,925
  4,149
  4,383
  4,627
  4,882
  5,149
  5,428
  5,720
  6,025
  6,345
  6,680
  7,030
  7,397
  7,782
  8,185
  8,607
  9,050
  9,515
  10,002
  10,512
  11,048
  11,610
  12,200
  12,818
  13,467
  14,148
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,929
  3,117
  3,307
  3,504
  3,710
  3,925
  4,149
  4,383
  4,627
  4,882
  5,149
  5,428
  5,720
  6,025
  6,345
  6,680
  7,030
  7,397
  7,782
  8,185
  8,607
  9,050
  9,515
  10,002
  10,512
  11,048
  11,610
  12,200
  12,818
  13,467
  14,148
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
Average production assets, $m
  2,738
  2,907
  3,084
  3,268
  3,460
  3,661
  3,870
  4,088
  4,316
  4,554
  4,802
  5,063
  5,335
  5,620
  5,918
  6,230
  6,557
  6,899
  7,258
  7,634
  8,028
  8,441
  8,874
  9,329
  9,805
  10,305
  10,829
  11,378
  11,955
  12,561
  13,196
Working capital, $m
  0
  -550
  -584
  -618
  -655
  -693
  -732
  -773
  -817
  -862
  -909
  -958
  -1,009
  -1,063
  -1,120
  -1,179
  -1,241
  -1,305
  -1,373
  -1,444
  -1,519
  -1,597
  -1,679
  -1,765
  -1,855
  -1,950
  -2,049
  -2,153
  -2,262
  -2,377
  -2,497
Total debt, $m
  2,523
  2,474
  2,645
  2,823
  3,008
  3,201
  3,403
  3,613
  3,833
  4,063
  4,303
  4,554
  4,817
  5,092
  5,379
  5,681
  5,996
  6,326
  6,673
  7,035
  7,416
  7,814
  8,232
  8,671
  9,130
  9,612
  10,118
  10,649
  11,205
  11,789
  12,402
Total liabilities, $m
  2,854
  2,805
  2,976
  3,154
  3,339
  3,532
  3,734
  3,944
  4,164
  4,394
  4,634
  4,885
  5,148
  5,423
  5,710
  6,012
  6,327
  6,657
  7,004
  7,366
  7,747
  8,145
  8,563
  9,002
  9,461
  9,943
  10,449
  10,980
  11,536
  12,120
  12,733
Total equity, $m
  593
  312
  331
  350
  371
  392
  415
  438
  463
  488
  515
  543
  572
  603
  634
  668
  703
  740
  778
  818
  861
  905
  951
  1,000
  1,051
  1,105
  1,161
  1,220
  1,282
  1,347
  1,415
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,447
  3,117
  3,307
  3,504
  3,710
  3,924
  4,149
  4,382
  4,627
  4,882
  5,149
  5,428
  5,720
  6,026
  6,344
  6,680
  7,030
  7,397
  7,782
  8,184
  8,608
  9,050
  9,514
  10,002
  10,512
  11,048
  11,610
  12,200
  12,818
  13,467
  14,148
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.255
  7.940
  8.000
  8.060
  8.110
  8.160
  8.200
  8.240
  8.280
  8.320
  8.360
  8.390
  8.420
  8.450
  8.480
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
  8.570
  8.600
  8.620
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
  8.700
  8.710
  8.730
  8.740
  8.750
  8.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.026
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  -49
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -15
  -10
  -4
  1
  6
  11
  16
  21
  27
  34
  40
  48
  55
  63
  72
  81
  91
  101
  112
  124
  137
  150
  164
  179
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  120
  128
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  260
  273
  288
  303
  318
  335
  352
  370
  389
  409
  430
  452
  475
  499
  524
  551
  579
Funds from operations, $m
  120
  78
  99
  111
  123
  136
  150
  165
  180
  196
  212
  228
  245
  262
  281
  301
  321
  343
  366
  390
  415
  442
  470
  500
  531
  564
  599
  636
  674
  715
  758
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
Cash from operations, $m
  150
  111
  133
  146
  160
  174
  190
  206
  223
  241
  259
  277
  296
  316
  337
  360
  383
  408
  434
  461
  490
  520
  552
  586
  621
  659
  698
  740
  783
  829
  878
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -120
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -260
  -273
  -288
  -303
  -318
  -335
  -352
  -370
  -389
  -409
  -430
  -452
  -475
  -499
  -524
  -551
New CAPEX, $m
  -552
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -249
  -260
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -342
  -359
  -376
  -394
  -413
  -433
  -454
  -476
  -500
  -524
  -550
  -577
  -605
  -635
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -123
  -290
  -305
  -319
  -335
  -352
  -370
  -388
  -407
  -427
  -449
  -471
  -494
  -519
  -544
  -572
  -600
  -630
  -662
  -694
  -729
  -765
  -803
  -843
  -885
  -930
  -976
  -1,025
  -1,076
  -1,129
  -1,186
Free cash flow, $m
  27
  -179
  -172
  -174
  -176
  -178
  -180
  -182
  -184
  -187
  -190
  -194
  -198
  -203
  -207
  -212
  -217
  -222
  -228
  -233
  -239
  -245
  -251
  -257
  -264
  -271
  -278
  -285
  -293
  -300
  -308
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  118
  -49
  171
  178
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
  418
  438
  460
  482
  506
  531
  557
  584
  613
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -40
  286
  55
  52
  49
  46
  42
  38
  34
  30
  25
  22
  18
  15
  10
  6
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  216
  237
  226
  230
  234
  239
  244
  249
  254
  260
  265
  273
  281
  290
  298
  307
  316
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
  418
  438
  460
  482
  506
  531
  557
  584
  613
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  242
  58
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  108
  119
  130
  141
  154
  167
  181
  196
  211
  228
  245
  264
  284
  305
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  64
  -286
  -55
  -52
  -49
  -46
  -42
  -38
  -34
  -30
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  518
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  290
  -1
  4
  10
  16
  22
  28
  36
  43
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  71
  80
  89
  99
  109
  120
  132
  145
  158
  172
  187
  202
  219
  237
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  263
  -1
  3
  6
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  15.5
  12.4
  10.1
  8.4
  7.2
  6.2
  5.5
  5.0
  4.5
  4.2
  4.0
  3.8
  3.7
  3.6
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5

Fly Leasing Limited is engaged in purchasing commercial aircraft, which it leases under multi-year contracts to a range of airlines throughout the world. The Company primarily acquires aircraft by entering into purchase and leaseback transactions with airlines for new aircraft; purchasing portfolios, which consists of aircraft of various types and ages, and acquiring individual aircraft. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 76 aircraft in its portfolio, of which 75 were held for operating lease and one was recorded as an investment in finance lease. As of December 31, 2016, its portfolio included 65 narrow-body passenger aircraft (including one freighter) and 11 wide-body passenger aircraft (including two freighters). Its aircraft are leased under multi-year contracts to various group of airlines in Europe; Asia and South Pacific; Mexico, South and Central America; North America, and Middle East and Africa. Its portfolio includes aircrafts, such as B737-700 and A320-200.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fly Leasing ADR (FLY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13.8
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 425.5%
Total Debt to Equity 425.5%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital -0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -4.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 61.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.3%
Operating Margin 18.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Net Profit Margin -9.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 19.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

FLY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FLY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $317 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fly Leasing ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fly Leasing ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FLY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for FLY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fly Leasing ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fly Leasing ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FLY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 23.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $189 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FLY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Fly Leasing ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fly Leasing ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FLY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FLY are equal to 863.6%.

Life of production assets of 22.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fly Leasing ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FLY is equal to -163.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $593 million for Fly Leasing ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.854 million for Fly Leasing ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fly Leasing ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Fly Leasing Closes $332 Million Debt Facility   [Dec-11-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Fly Leasing reports 3Q loss   [Nov-09-17 07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Fly Leasing Reprices 2012 Term Loan   [Nov-01-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Fly Leasing beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-10-17 11:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ FLY Leasing Acquires Four New Aircraft   [Jul-10-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 16th   [May-16-17 10:29AM  Zacks]
▶ Fly Leasing beats 1Q profit forecasts   [07:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ FLY Leasing Reprices, Extends and Upsizes 2012 Term Loan   [May-01-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Small-Cap Stocks to Buy in April   [Apr-04-17 07:34AM  Motley Fool]
▶ FLY Leasing Posts Annual Report To Website   [Mar-31-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Fly Leasing reports 4Q loss   [07:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-14-16 08:29PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ FLY Leasing Extends 2012 Term Loan   [Oct-20-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ FLY Leasing Acquires Five Aircraft   [Jul-26-16 08:03AM  PR Newswire]
▶ FLY LEASING LTD Financials   [May-07-16 01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
Financial statements of FLY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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