Intrinsic value of FMC - FMC

Previous Close

$75.79

  Intrinsic Value

$2.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

  Value-price divergence*

-152%

Previous close

$75.79

 
Intrinsic value

$2.73

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-152%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FMC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.15
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,282
  3,348
  3,425
  3,513
  3,611
  3,721
  3,841
  3,972
  4,113
  4,266
  4,430
  4,605
  4,792
  4,991
  5,202
  5,427
  5,665
  5,916
  6,182
  6,464
  6,761
  7,074
  7,405
  7,753
  8,120
  8,507
  8,914
  9,342
  9,793
  10,267
  10,766
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,394
  3,470
  3,558
  3,657
  3,766
  3,886
  4,017
  4,158
  4,311
  4,474
  4,599
  4,786
  4,985
  5,196
  5,420
  5,658
  5,909
  6,175
  6,456
  6,753
  7,066
  7,396
  7,744
  8,110
  8,496
  8,903
  9,331
  9,781
  10,255
  10,753
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,844
  3,394
  3,470
  3,558
  3,657
  3,766
  3,886
  4,017
  4,158
  4,311
  4,474
  4,599
  4,786
  4,985
  5,196
  5,420
  5,658
  5,909
  6,175
  6,456
  6,753
  7,066
  7,396
  7,744
  8,110
  8,496
  8,903
  9,331
  9,781
  10,255
  10,753
Operating income, $m
  439
  -46
  -46
  -46
  -46
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -45
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
EBITDA, $m
  576
  103
  106
  108
  111
  115
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  175
  182
  191
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  317
  332
Interest expense (income), $m
  82
  75
  79
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  153
  163
  174
  186
  198
  211
  224
  239
  254
  270
  287
  305
  324
  344
  365
  387
  410
  435
Earnings before tax, $m
  339
  -121
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -129
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -179
  -191
  -203
  -217
  -231
  -246
  -261
  -278
  -296
  -314
  -333
  -354
  -375
  -398
  -422
Tax expense, $m
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  209
  -121
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -129
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -179
  -191
  -203
  -217
  -231
  -246
  -261
  -278
  -296
  -314
  -333
  -354
  -375
  -398
  -422

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,139
  6,199
  6,342
  6,505
  6,688
  6,891
  7,113
  7,355
  7,618
  7,900
  8,203
  8,528
  8,874
  9,242
  9,634
  10,049
  10,490
  10,956
  11,449
  11,970
  12,520
  13,100
  13,712
  14,357
  15,037
  15,753
  16,507
  17,300
  18,135
  19,013
  19,937
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,075
  6,199
  6,342
  6,505
  6,688
  6,891
  7,113
  7,355
  7,618
  7,900
  8,203
  8,528
  8,874
  9,242
  9,634
  10,049
  10,490
  10,956
  11,449
  11,970
  12,520
  13,100
  13,712
  14,357
  15,037
  15,753
  16,507
  17,300
  18,135
  19,013
  19,937
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
Average production assets, $m
  1,556
  1,587
  1,623
  1,665
  1,712
  1,764
  1,821
  1,883
  1,950
  2,022
  2,100
  2,183
  2,271
  2,366
  2,466
  2,572
  2,685
  2,804
  2,930
  3,064
  3,205
  3,353
  3,510
  3,675
  3,849
  4,032
  4,225
  4,428
  4,642
  4,867
  5,103
Working capital, $m
  1,411
  1,470
  1,503
  1,542
  1,585
  1,633
  1,686
  1,744
  1,806
  1,873
  1,945
  2,022
  2,104
  2,191
  2,284
  2,382
  2,487
  2,597
  2,714
  2,838
  2,968
  3,106
  3,251
  3,404
  3,565
  3,734
  3,913
  4,101
  4,299
  4,507
  4,726
Total debt, $m
  1,893
  1,915
  2,012
  2,122
  2,246
  2,384
  2,535
  2,699
  2,877
  3,068
  3,274
  3,494
  3,728
  3,978
  4,244
  4,526
  4,824
  5,140
  5,474
  5,828
  6,200
  6,594
  7,009
  7,446
  7,907
  8,392
  8,903
  9,441
  10,007
  10,603
  11,229
Total liabilities, $m
  4,182
  4,203
  4,300
  4,410
  4,534
  4,672
  4,823
  4,987
  5,165
  5,356
  5,562
  5,782
  6,016
  6,266
  6,532
  6,814
  7,112
  7,428
  7,762
  8,116
  8,488
  8,882
  9,297
  9,734
  10,195
  10,680
  11,191
  11,729
  12,295
  12,891
  13,517
Total equity, $m
  1,958
  1,996
  2,042
  2,095
  2,154
  2,219
  2,290
  2,368
  2,453
  2,544
  2,641
  2,746
  2,857
  2,976
  3,102
  3,236
  3,378
  3,528
  3,687
  3,854
  4,031
  4,218
  4,415
  4,623
  4,842
  5,072
  5,315
  5,571
  5,839
  6,122
  6,420
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,140
  6,199
  6,342
  6,505
  6,688
  6,891
  7,113
  7,355
  7,618
  7,900
  8,203
  8,528
  8,873
  9,242
  9,634
  10,050
  10,490
  10,956
  11,449
  11,970
  12,519
  13,100
  13,712
  14,357
  15,037
  15,752
  16,506
  17,300
  18,134
  19,013
  19,937
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.967
  0.960
  0.990
  1.010
  1.040
  1.070
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.210
  1.240
  1.270
  1.300
  1.340
  1.370
  1.400
  1.430
  1.460
  1.480
  1.510
  1.540
  1.560
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.650
  1.680
  1.690
  1.710
  1.730
  1.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  209
  -121
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -129
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -179
  -191
  -203
  -217
  -231
  -246
  -261
  -278
  -296
  -314
  -333
  -354
  -375
  -398
  -422
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  137
  149
  151
  154
  157
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  210
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
Funds from operations, $m
  433
  28
  27
  26
  24
  23
  21
  19
  16
  14
  11
  8
  4
  1
  -3
  -7
  -11
  -15
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -77
  -85
  -94
  -103
Change in working capital, $m
  -65
  29
  34
  39
  43
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  104
  111
  117
  123
  130
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  219
Cash from operations, $m
  498
  -1
  -7
  -13
  -19
  -25
  -32
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -61
  -69
  -78
  -86
  -96
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -137
  -149
  -161
  -174
  -187
  -201
  -216
  -232
  -248
  -265
  -283
  -302
  -322
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -97
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -122
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -304
New CAPEX, $m
  -131
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -236
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -135
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -274
  -287
  -301
  -316
  -332
  -349
  -367
  -384
  -404
  -424
  -445
  -467
  -491
  -515
  -540
Free cash flow, $m
  363
  -129
  -142
  -156
  -170
  -184
  -199
  -215
  -231
  -248
  -265
  -283
  -303
  -323
  -344
  -366
  -389
  -413
  -438
  -465
  -493
  -523
  -553
  -586
  -620
  -655
  -693
  -732
  -774
  -817
  -862
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -259
  86
  97
  111
  124
  137
  151
  164
  178
  192
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  282
  299
  316
  334
  353
  373
  393
  415
  437
  461
  485
  511
  538
  566
  595
  626
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  159
  170
  181
  191
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  268
  233
  249
  266
  283
  301
  321
  341
  362
  384
  408
  433
  459
  486
  514
  544
  576
  609
  644
  681
  719
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -288
  245
  267
  292
  315
  340
  366
  391
  418
  446
  474
  453
  484
  516
  549
  583
  620
  657
  696
  737
  781
  826
  874
  923
  975
  1,029
  1,087
  1,147
  1,210
  1,276
  1,345
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  75
  117
  124
  135
  146
  156
  166
  177
  187
  198
  208
  170
  181
  193
  205
  217
  230
  244
  258
  272
  288
  303
  320
  337
  355
  374
  394
  415
  437
  459
  483
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -92
  -159
  -170
  -181
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -268
  -233
  -249
  -266
  -283
  -301
  -321
  -341
  -362
  -384
  -408
  -433
  -459
  -486
  -514
  -544
  -576
  -609
  -644
  -681
  -719
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -42
  -46
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -170
  -182
  -194
  -208
  -221
  -236
Discount rate, %
 
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.86
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.70
  24.89
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -40
  -40
  -36
  -34
  -31
  -29
  -27
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.5
  96.9
  95.2
  93.6
  91.9
  90.2
  88.5
  86.8
  85.1
  83.4
  82.0
  80.6
  79.2
  77.8
  76.3
  74.9
  73.5
  72.0
  70.6
  69.2
  67.8
  66.4
  65.0
  63.7
  62.3
  61.0
  59.6
  58.3
  57.1
  55.8

FMC Corporation, a diversified chemical company, provides solutions, applications, and products for the agricultural, consumer, and industrial markets worldwide. The company operates through three segments: FMC Agricultural Solutions, FMC Health and Nutrition, and FMC Lithium. The FMC Agricultural Solutions segment develops, manufactures, and sells crop protection chemicals comprising insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides that are used in agriculture to enhance crop yield and by controlling a broad spectrum of insects, weeds, and diseases, as well as in non-agricultural markets for pest control. The FMC Health and Nutrition segment offers microcrystalline cellulose for use in drug dry tablet binder and disintegrant, and food ingredients; carrageenan for use in food ingredient for thickening and stabilizing, pharmaceutical, and nutraceutical encapsulates; alginates for food ingredient, pharmaceutical excipient, healthcare, and industrial uses; natural colorants for use in food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetics; and omega-3 EPA/DHA for nutraceutical and pharmaceutical uses. The FMC Lithium segment offers lithium for use in batteries, polymers, pharmaceuticals, greases and lubricants, glass and ceramics, and other industrial uses. FMC Corporation was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  FMC (FMC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 48.5
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book 5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 91.9%
Total Debt to Equity 96.7%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 5.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
EBITDA Margin 17%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Operating Margin 13.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Effective Tax Rate 27.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Payout Ratio 42.6%

FMC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FMC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3282 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by FMC. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of FMC. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FMC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7%, whose default value for FMC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of FMC, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of FMC.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FMC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FMC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for FMC.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for FMC. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FMC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FMC are equal to 47.4%.

Life of production assets of 16 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in FMC operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FMC is equal to 43.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1958 million for FMC - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 133.739 million for FMC is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of FMC at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.1 billion.

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Stock chart of FMC Financial statements of FMC Annual reports of FMC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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