Intrinsic value of Foundation Medicine - FMI

Previous Close

$41.10

  Intrinsic Value

$1.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

Previous close

$41.10

 
Intrinsic value

$1.15

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FMI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.81
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  117
  146
  180
  218
  261
  308
  360
  416
  477
  541
  610
  683
  761
  842
  926
  1,015
  1,108
  1,204
  1,304
  1,409
  1,517
  1,630
  1,747
  1,869
  1,996
  2,127
  2,264
  2,407
  2,555
  2,709
  2,870
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  288
  354
  429
  513
  605
  707
  818
  937
  1,064
  1,200
  1,344
  1,495
  1,654
  1,821
  1,996
  2,178
  2,367
  2,565
  2,770
  2,983
  3,205
  3,435
  3,675
  3,924
  4,182
  4,451
  4,732
  5,023
  5,327
  5,643
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  231
  288
  354
  429
  513
  605
  707
  818
  937
  1,064
  1,200
  1,344
  1,495
  1,654
  1,821
  1,996
  2,178
  2,367
  2,565
  2,770
  2,983
  3,205
  3,435
  3,675
  3,924
  4,182
  4,451
  4,732
  5,023
  5,327
  5,643
Operating income, $m
  -114
  -141
  -174
  -211
  -252
  -297
  -347
  -402
  -460
  -523
  -590
  -660
  -735
  -813
  -895
  -981
  -1,070
  -1,163
  -1,260
  -1,361
  -1,466
  -1,575
  -1,688
  -1,806
  -1,928
  -2,055
  -2,187
  -2,325
  -2,468
  -2,617
  -2,773
EBITDA, $m
  -98
  -131
  -161
  -195
  -233
  -276
  -322
  -372
  -426
  -485
  -546
  -612
  -681
  -753
  -829
  -909
  -991
  -1,078
  -1,168
  -1,261
  -1,358
  -1,459
  -1,564
  -1,673
  -1,786
  -1,904
  -2,026
  -2,154
  -2,287
  -2,425
  -2,569
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
Earnings before tax, $m
  -113
  -141
  -174
  -212
  -253
  -300
  -350
  -405
  -465
  -528
  -596
  -667
  -743
  -822
  -906
  -992
  -1,083
  -1,178
  -1,276
  -1,378
  -1,485
  -1,595
  -1,710
  -1,829
  -1,954
  -2,083
  -2,217
  -2,356
  -2,502
  -2,653
  -2,811
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -113
  -141
  -174
  -212
  -253
  -300
  -350
  -405
  -465
  -528
  -596
  -667
  -743
  -822
  -906
  -992
  -1,083
  -1,178
  -1,276
  -1,378
  -1,485
  -1,595
  -1,710
  -1,829
  -1,954
  -2,083
  -2,217
  -2,356
  -2,502
  -2,653
  -2,811

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  143
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  214
  89
  109
  132
  158
  187
  218
  252
  289
  329
  370
  415
  462
  511
  562
  616
  672
  731
  792
  855
  921
  989
  1,060
  1,134
  1,211
  1,291
  1,374
  1,460
  1,550
  1,644
  1,742
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  71
  89
  109
  132
  158
  187
  218
  252
  289
  329
  370
  415
  462
  511
  562
  616
  672
  731
  792
  855
  921
  989
  1,060
  1,134
  1,211
  1,291
  1,374
  1,460
  1,550
  1,644
  1,742
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.648
  1.640
  1.651
  1.652
  1.652
  1.647
  1.651
  1.651
  1.651
  1.644
  1.649
  1.646
  1.647
  1.648
  1.648
  1.648
  1.649
  1.647
  1.646
  1.648
  1.647
  1.648
  1.648
  1.648
  1.648
  1.648
  1.648
  1.649
  1.648
  1.648
  1.648
Average production assets, $m
  42
  52
  64
  77
  93
  109
  128
  148
  169
  192
  217
  243
  270
  299
  329
  360
  393
  427
  463
  500
  539
  579
  620
  664
  708
  755
  804
  854
  907
  962
  1,019
Working capital, $m
  128
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -61
  -69
  -78
  -87
  -97
  -108
  -119
  -130
  -142
  -154
  -167
  -180
  -194
  -209
  -224
  -239
  -255
  -272
  -290
  -308
  -327
  -347
  -367
Total debt, $m
  0
  12
  26
  42
  60
  80
  102
  125
  151
  178
  207
  237
  269
  303
  339
  376
  415
  455
  497
  541
  586
  634
  683
  734
  787
  842
  899
  959
  1,021
  1,085
  1,153
Total liabilities, $m
  49
  61
  75
  91
  109
  129
  151
  174
  200
  227
  256
  286
  318
  352
  388
  425
  464
  504
  546
  590
  635
  683
  732
  783
  836
  891
  948
  1,008
  1,070
  1,134
  1,202
Total equity, $m
  165
  28
  34
  41
  49
  58
  68
  78
  90
  102
  115
  129
  143
  158
  174
  191
  208
  227
  245
  265
  285
  307
  329
  352
  375
  400
  426
  453
  481
  510
  540
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  214
  89
  109
  132
  158
  187
  219
  252
  290
  329
  371
  415
  461
  510
  562
  616
  672
  731
  791
  855
  920
  990
  1,061
  1,135
  1,211
  1,291
  1,374
  1,461
  1,551
  1,644
  1,742
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.440
  0.780
  1.030
  1.230
  1.380
  1.500
  1.600
  1.680
  1.740
  1.800
  1.840
  1.880
  1.920
  1.940
  1.970
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.040
  2.050
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.100
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
  2.120
  2.130
  2.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -113
  -141
  -174
  -212
  -253
  -300
  -350
  -405
  -465
  -528
  -596
  -667
  -743
  -822
  -906
  -992
  -1,083
  -1,178
  -1,276
  -1,378
  -1,485
  -1,595
  -1,710
  -1,829
  -1,954
  -2,083
  -2,217
  -2,356
  -2,502
  -2,653
  -2,811
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  10
  13
  15
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  49
  54
  60
  66
  72
  79
  85
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
  204
Funds from operations, $m
  -57
  -131
  -161
  -196
  -235
  -278
  -325
  -376
  -431
  -490
  -553
  -619
  -689
  -763
  -840
  -920
  -1,005
  -1,092
  -1,183
  -1,278
  -1,377
  -1,479
  -1,586
  -1,697
  -1,812
  -1,931
  -2,056
  -2,185
  -2,320
  -2,461
  -2,607
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from operations, $m
  -67
  -127
  -157
  -191
  -229
  -272
  -318
  -369
  -423
  -482
  -544
  -610
  -679
  -752
  -829
  -909
  -993
  -1,080
  -1,171
  -1,265
  -1,363
  -1,465
  -1,571
  -1,681
  -1,796
  -1,915
  -2,038
  -2,167
  -2,301
  -2,441
  -2,586
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -79
  -85
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -161
  -171
  -181
  -192
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
Cash from investing activities, $m
  13
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -30
  -36
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -167
  -178
  -189
  -200
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -249
Free cash flow, $m
  -54
  -146
  -179
  -217
  -260
  -307
  -358
  -414
  -474
  -538
  -607
  -679
  -755
  -835
  -919
  -1,006
  -1,098
  -1,193
  -1,292
  -1,395
  -1,502
  -1,613
  -1,728
  -1,848
  -1,973
  -2,103
  -2,238
  -2,379
  -2,525
  -2,677
  -2,836
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  147
  181
  219
  261
  308
  360
  416
  476
  540
  609
  681
  758
  838
  921
  1,009
  1,101
  1,196
  1,295
  1,398
  1,505
  1,616
  1,732
  1,852
  1,977
  2,107
  2,242
  2,383
  2,530
  2,682
  2,841
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  159
  195
  235
  279
  328
  382
  440
  501
  567
  638
  712
  790
  872
  957
  1,046
  1,140
  1,236
  1,337
  1,442
  1,550
  1,663
  1,781
  1,903
  2,030
  2,162
  2,299
  2,443
  2,592
  2,747
  2,908
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -54
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  93
  -147
  -181
  -219
  -261
  -308
  -360
  -416
  -476
  -540
  -609
  -681
  -758
  -838
  -921
  -1,009
  -1,101
  -1,196
  -1,295
  -1,398
  -1,505
  -1,616
  -1,732
  -1,852
  -1,977
  -2,107
  -2,242
  -2,383
  -2,530
  -2,682
  -2,841
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  143
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  9
  -165
  -202
  -242
  -287
  -337
  -391
  -449
  -511
  -578
  -648
  -723
  -801
  -883
  -969
  -1,059
  -1,152
  -1,250
  -1,351
  -1,456
  -1,566
  -1,679
  -1,797
  -1,920
  -2,048
  -2,181
  -2,319
  -2,463
  -2,613
  -2,769
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  9
  -151
  -175
  -199
  -223
  -244
  -264
  -281
  -294
  -303
  -308
  -308
  -305
  -297
  -285
  -269
  -251
  -230
  -208
  -185
  -162
  -139
  -118
  -98
  -80
  -64
  -50
  -38
  -29
  -21
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  57.3
  33.1
  19.2
  11.3
  6.6
  3.9
  2.3
  1.4
  0.8
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Foundation Medicine, Inc. is a molecular information company. The Company sells products that are enabled by its molecular information platform to physicians and biopharmaceutical companies. It is engaged in the business of delivering molecular information about cancer to its customers. Its platform includes various methods and algorithms for analyzing specimens across various types of cancer. Its suite of clinical molecular information products includes FoundationOne, which is used for solid tumors; FoundationOne Heme, which is used for blood-based cancers or hematologic malignancies, including leukemia, lymphoma, myeloma, pediatric cancers and advanced sarcoma; FoundationACT (Assay for Circulating Tumor DNA), which is a blood-based (liquid biopsy) assay that evaluates circulating tumor deoxyribonucleic acid (ctDNA), and FoundationFocus CDxBRCA, which is a companion diagnostic assay to aid in identifying women with ovarian cancer for whom treatment with Rubraca (rucaparib).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Foundation Medicine (FMI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -12.8
Price to Sales 12.4
Price to Book 8.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -21.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -16.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -44.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.2%
Return On Total Capital -53.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -51%
Return On Equity -53.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55%
EBITDA Margin -82.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -80%
Operating Margin -97.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -93.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -96.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -92.9%
Net Profit Margin -96.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -92.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

FMI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FMI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $117 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Foundation Medicine. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Foundation Medicine. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FMI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FMI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Foundation Medicine, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Foundation Medicine.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FMI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 196.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FMI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Foundation Medicine.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Foundation Medicine. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FMI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FMI are equal to 35.5%.

Life of production assets of 2.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Foundation Medicine operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FMI is equal to -12.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $165 million for Foundation Medicine - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.01 million for Foundation Medicine is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Foundation Medicine at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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Financial statements of FMI
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