Intrinsic value of Fairmount Santrol Holdings - FMSA

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$3.61

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$3.61

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FMSA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -35.46
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  535
  846
  865
  887
  912
  940
  970
  1,003
  1,039
  1,078
  1,119
  1,163
  1,210
  1,261
  1,314
  1,371
  1,431
  1,494
  1,562
  1,633
  1,708
  1,787
  1,870
  1,958
  2,051
  2,149
  2,251
  2,360
  2,474
  2,593
  2,719
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  298
  305
  313
  322
  332
  342
  354
  366
  380
  394
  408
  425
  443
  461
  481
  502
  525
  548
  573
  600
  628
  657
  688
  720
  755
  791
  829
  869
  911
  955
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  595
  609
  625
  640
  656
  673
  689
  707
  724
  742
  761
  780
  800
  820
  840
  861
  883
  905
  927
  950
  974
  999
  1,023
  1,049
  1,075
  1,102
  1,130
  1,158
  1,187
  1,217
Total operating expenses, $m
  709
  893
  914
  938
  962
  988
  1,015
  1,043
  1,073
  1,104
  1,136
  1,169
  1,205
  1,243
  1,281
  1,321
  1,363
  1,408
  1,453
  1,500
  1,550
  1,602
  1,656
  1,711
  1,769
  1,830
  1,893
  1,959
  2,027
  2,098
  2,172
Operating income, $m
  -174
  -47
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -48
  -45
  -40
  -34
  -27
  -18
  -6
  5
  18
  33
  49
  67
  87
  109
  132
  158
  185
  215
  247
  282
  319
  359
  401
  447
  496
  548
EBITDA, $m
  -94
  25
  24
  25
  28
  32
  38
  45
  54
  65
  77
  91
  106
  124
  143
  164
  187
  212
  239
  268
  300
  334
  371
  410
  453
  498
  546
  598
  653
  712
  775
Interest expense (income), $m
  61
  59
  44
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
Earnings before tax, $m
  -240
  -106
  -93
  -95
  -96
  -96
  -94
  -92
  -88
  -83
  -76
  -67
  -59
  -48
  -37
  -24
  -10
  6
  24
  43
  64
  87
  112
  139
  168
  199
  233
  269
  308
  349
  394
Tax expense, $m
  -100
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  6
  12
  17
  24
  30
  37
  45
  54
  63
  73
  83
  94
  106
Net income, $m
  -140
  -106
  -93
  -95
  -96
  -96
  -94
  -92
  -88
  -83
  -76
  -67
  -59
  -48
  -37
  -24
  -10
  5
  18
  32
  47
  64
  82
  101
  123
  145
  170
  196
  225
  255
  288

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  194
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,203
  1,206
  1,234
  1,266
  1,301
  1,341
  1,384
  1,431
  1,482
  1,537
  1,596
  1,659
  1,727
  1,798
  1,875
  1,955
  2,041
  2,132
  2,228
  2,329
  2,436
  2,549
  2,668
  2,794
  2,926
  3,065
  3,212
  3,366
  3,529
  3,699
  3,879
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,009
  1,206
  1,234
  1,266
  1,301
  1,341
  1,384
  1,431
  1,482
  1,537
  1,596
  1,659
  1,727
  1,798
  1,875
  1,955
  2,041
  2,132
  2,228
  2,329
  2,436
  2,549
  2,668
  2,794
  2,926
  3,065
  3,212
  3,366
  3,529
  3,699
  3,879
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.530
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
Average production assets, $m
  895
  973
  996
  1,021
  1,050
  1,082
  1,117
  1,155
  1,196
  1,240
  1,288
  1,339
  1,393
  1,451
  1,512
  1,578
  1,647
  1,720
  1,797
  1,879
  1,966
  2,057
  2,153
  2,254
  2,361
  2,473
  2,591
  2,716
  2,847
  2,985
  3,130
Working capital, $m
  280
  123
  125
  129
  132
  136
  141
  145
  151
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  217
  226
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  312
  326
  342
  359
  376
  394
Total debt, $m
  843
  894
  919
  947
  979
  1,015
  1,054
  1,096
  1,142
  1,191
  1,245
  1,301
  1,362
  1,426
  1,495
  1,568
  1,645
  1,727
  1,813
  1,904
  2,000
  2,102
  2,209
  2,322
  2,441
  2,567
  2,699
  2,838
  2,984
  3,138
  3,299
Total liabilities, $m
  952
  1,086
  1,111
  1,139
  1,171
  1,207
  1,246
  1,288
  1,334
  1,383
  1,437
  1,493
  1,554
  1,618
  1,687
  1,760
  1,837
  1,919
  2,005
  2,096
  2,192
  2,294
  2,401
  2,514
  2,633
  2,759
  2,891
  3,030
  3,176
  3,330
  3,491
Total equity, $m
  251
  121
  123
  127
  130
  134
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  196
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  321
  337
  353
  370
  388
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,203
  1,207
  1,234
  1,266
  1,301
  1,341
  1,384
  1,431
  1,482
  1,537
  1,597
  1,659
  1,727
  1,798
  1,874
  1,956
  2,041
  2,132
  2,228
  2,329
  2,436
  2,549
  2,668
  2,793
  2,926
  3,066
  3,212
  3,367
  3,529
  3,700
  3,879
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.359
  7.410
  7.440
  7.480
  7.520
  7.570
  7.610
  7.660
  7.700
  7.750
  7.800
  7.840
  7.890
  7.930
  7.980
  8.020
  8.060
  8.100
  8.140
  8.180
  8.210
  8.250
  8.280
  8.310
  8.340
  8.370
  8.400
  8.430
  8.460
  8.480
  8.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.056
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -140
  -106
  -93
  -95
  -96
  -96
  -94
  -92
  -88
  -83
  -76
  -67
  -59
  -48
  -37
  -24
  -10
  5
  18
  32
  47
  64
  82
  101
  123
  145
  170
  196
  225
  255
  288
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  80
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
Funds from operations, $m
  18
  -34
  -20
  -20
  -19
  -16
  -12
  -6
  0
  9
  18
  30
  42
  57
  73
  90
  110
  129
  148
  168
  189
  213
  238
  265
  294
  325
  358
  393
  431
  471
  514
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
Cash from operations, $m
  -5
  -24
  -23
  -23
  -22
  -20
  -16
  -11
  -5
  3
  12
  23
  36
  49
  65
  82
  101
  120
  138
  157
  178
  201
  226
  252
  280
  310
  343
  378
  415
  454
  496
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -69
  -71
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -26
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -283
  -297
  -313
  -328
  -344
  -361
Free cash flow, $m
  -31
  -112
  -115
  -121
  -125
  -128
  -130
  -130
  -130
  -128
  -125
  -121
  -116
  -109
  -102
  -93
  -82
  -72
  -64
  -55
  -44
  -32
  -19
  -5
  10
  27
  45
  65
  87
  110
  135
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -389
  -312
  25
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  446
  606
  93
  96
  97
  96
  95
  92
  89
  84
  78
  70
  62
  52
  41
  28
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  55
  294
  118
  125
  129
  132
  134
  134
  135
  133
  131
  127
  123
  117
  110
  101
  91
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  -425
  -91
  -92
  -93
  -92
  -91
  -88
  -84
  -78
  -72
  -64
  -55
  -45
  -33
  -20
  -5
  9
  22
  37
  52
  69
  88
  108
  129
  152
  177
  204
  233
  264
  297
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -312
  -336
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  154
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  13
  26
  42
  58
  76
  95
  116
  138
  163
  189
  217
  247
  279
Discount rate, %
 
  13.50
  14.18
  14.88
  15.63
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  19.00
  19.95
  20.94
  21.99
  23.09
  24.24
  25.46
  26.73
  28.07
  29.47
  30.94
  32.49
  34.11
  35.82
  37.61
  39.49
  41.47
  43.54
  45.72
  48.00
  50.40
  52.92
  55.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  28.2
  15.9
  9.0
  5.2
  3.0
  1.8
  1.1
  0.7
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1

Fairmount Santrol Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides sand-based proppant solutions for exploration and production companies to enhance the productivity of their oil and gas wells. The company operates in two segments, Proppant Solutions; and Industrial & Recreational (I&R) Products. The Proppant Solutions segment primarily provides sand-based proppants for use in hydraulic fracturing operations in the United States, Canada, Argentina, Mexico, China, Northern Europe, and the United Arab Emirates. Its products include northern white frac sand, API-spec brown sand, and resin coated proppants, as well as ceramic proppants; PowerProp product; and Propel SSP product that utilizes a polymer coating applied to a proppant substrate. The I&R Products segment offers raw, coated, and custom blended sands for use in building products, glass, turf and landscape, and filtration industries, as well as for foundries primarily in North America. Fairmount Santrol Holdings Inc. also supplies proppants to oilfield service companies. The company was formerly known as FMSA Holdings Inc. and changed its name to Fairmount Santrol Holdings Inc. in July 2015. Fairmount Santrol Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Chesterland, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fairmount Santrol Holdings (FMSA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5.8
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -161.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -22.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -35.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -72.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 331.5%
Total Debt to Equity 335.9%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Total Capital -12.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Return On Equity -147.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.6%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.9%
EBITDA Margin -18.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Operating Margin -32.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -44.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.6%
Net Profit Margin -26.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.2%
Effective Tax Rate 41.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

FMSA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FMSA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $829 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fairmount Santrol Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fairmount Santrol Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FMSA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.5%, whose default value for FMSA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fairmount Santrol Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fairmount Santrol Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FMSA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 35.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $580 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FMSA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Fairmount Santrol Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fairmount Santrol Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FMSA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FMSA are equal to 115.1%.

Life of production assets of 13.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fairmount Santrol Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FMSA is equal to 14.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-61 million for Fairmount Santrol Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 210.369 million for Fairmount Santrol Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fairmount Santrol Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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Stock chart of FMSA Financial statements of FMSA Annual reports of FMSA
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