Intrinsic value of Financial Engines - FNGN

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$41.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$41.75

 
Intrinsic value

$6.84

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FNGN.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FNGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.33
  43.00
  39.20
  35.78
  32.70
  29.93
  27.44
  25.19
  23.18
  21.36
  19.72
  18.25
  16.92
  15.73
  14.66
  13.69
  12.82
  12.04
  11.34
  10.70
  10.13
  9.62
  9.16
  8.74
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.46
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
Revenue, $m
  424
  606
  844
  1,146
  1,521
  1,976
  2,518
  3,153
  3,883
  4,712
  5,642
  6,671
  7,801
  9,028
  10,351
  11,769
  13,278
  14,877
  16,563
  18,336
  20,194
  22,137
  24,164
  26,277
  28,475
  30,762
  33,140
  35,610
  38,178
  40,846
  43,619
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  497
  680
  912
  1,200
  1,550
  1,966
  2,454
  3,015
  3,652
  4,366
  5,126
  5,994
  6,937
  7,954
  9,043
  10,203
  11,431
  12,727
  14,090
  15,518
  17,010
  18,568
  20,191
  21,881
  23,638
  25,465
  27,363
  29,336
  31,387
  33,518
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  374
  497
  680
  912
  1,200
  1,550
  1,966
  2,454
  3,015
  3,652
  4,366
  5,126
  5,994
  6,937
  7,954
  9,043
  10,203
  11,431
  12,727
  14,090
  15,518
  17,010
  18,568
  20,191
  21,881
  23,638
  25,465
  27,363
  29,336
  31,387
  33,518
Operating income, $m
  50
  109
  164
  234
  321
  426
  552
  699
  868
  1,060
  1,275
  1,545
  1,807
  2,091
  2,397
  2,725
  3,075
  3,445
  3,836
  4,246
  4,677
  5,127
  5,596
  6,085
  6,594
  7,124
  7,675
  8,247
  8,841
  9,459
  10,102
EBITDA, $m
  74
  156
  217
  295
  391
  508
  647
  810
  998
  1,211
  1,450
  1,715
  2,005
  2,321
  2,661
  3,025
  3,413
  3,824
  4,258
  4,713
  5,191
  5,690
  6,211
  6,754
  7,320
  7,907
  8,518
  9,154
  9,813
  10,499
  11,212
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  3
  6
  8
  12
  16
  21
  27
  33
  40
  48
  57
  66
  76
  87
  99
  111
  124
  138
  152
  167
  182
  199
  216
  233
  251
  270
  290
  311
Earnings before tax, $m
  49
  109
  163
  231
  315
  418
  540
  683
  847
  1,034
  1,242
  1,505
  1,758
  2,034
  2,331
  2,649
  2,988
  3,346
  3,725
  4,122
  4,539
  4,975
  5,429
  5,903
  6,396
  6,908
  7,441
  7,995
  8,571
  9,169
  9,791
Tax expense, $m
  20
  29
  44
  62
  85
  113
  146
  184
  229
  279
  335
  406
  475
  549
  629
  715
  807
  904
  1,006
  1,113
  1,226
  1,343
  1,466
  1,594
  1,727
  1,865
  2,009
  2,159
  2,314
  2,476
  2,644
Net income, $m
  29
  80
  119
  169
  230
  305
  394
  498
  618
  754
  907
  1,099
  1,284
  1,485
  1,702
  1,934
  2,181
  2,443
  2,719
  3,009
  3,313
  3,631
  3,963
  4,309
  4,669
  5,043
  5,432
  5,837
  6,257
  6,693
  7,147

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  840
  1,009
  1,404
  1,907
  2,530
  3,288
  4,190
  5,245
  6,461
  7,841
  9,387
  11,101
  12,979
  15,021
  17,223
  19,582
  22,093
  24,753
  27,560
  30,509
  33,601
  36,833
  40,207
  43,722
  47,380
  51,185
  55,141
  59,252
  63,524
  67,963
  72,578
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  706
  1,009
  1,404
  1,907
  2,530
  3,288
  4,190
  5,245
  6,461
  7,841
  9,387
  11,101
  12,979
  15,021
  17,223
  19,582
  22,093
  24,753
  27,560
  30,509
  33,601
  36,833
  40,207
  43,722
  47,380
  51,185
  55,141
  59,252
  63,524
  67,963
  72,578
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
Average production assets, $m
  129
  184
  256
  347
  461
  599
  763
  955
  1,177
  1,428
  1,709
  2,021
  2,364
  2,735
  3,136
  3,566
  4,023
  4,508
  5,019
  5,556
  6,119
  6,707
  7,322
  7,962
  8,628
  9,321
  10,041
  10,790
  11,568
  12,376
  13,217
Working capital, $m
  170
  52
  72
  97
  129
  168
  214
  268
  330
  401
  480
  567
  663
  767
  880
  1,000
  1,129
  1,265
  1,408
  1,559
  1,717
  1,882
  2,054
  2,234
  2,420
  2,615
  2,817
  3,027
  3,245
  3,472
  3,708
Total debt, $m
  0
  40
  92
  159
  241
  341
  460
  599
  760
  942
  1,146
  1,372
  1,620
  1,890
  2,180
  2,492
  2,823
  3,174
  3,545
  3,934
  4,342
  4,769
  5,214
  5,678
  6,161
  6,663
  7,186
  7,728
  8,292
  8,878
  9,487
Total liabilities, $m
  93
  133
  185
  252
  334
  434
  553
  692
  853
  1,035
  1,239
  1,465
  1,713
  1,983
  2,273
  2,585
  2,916
  3,267
  3,638
  4,027
  4,435
  4,862
  5,307
  5,771
  6,254
  6,756
  7,279
  7,821
  8,385
  8,971
  9,580
Total equity, $m
  747
  876
  1,219
  1,655
  2,196
  2,854
  3,637
  4,553
  5,608
  6,806
  8,148
  9,635
  11,266
  13,039
  14,950
  16,997
  19,177
  21,486
  23,922
  26,482
  29,166
  31,971
  34,899
  37,950
  41,126
  44,429
  47,862
  51,431
  55,138
  58,992
  62,997
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  840
  1,009
  1,404
  1,907
  2,530
  3,288
  4,190
  5,245
  6,461
  7,841
  9,387
  11,100
  12,979
  15,022
  17,223
  19,582
  22,093
  24,753
  27,560
  30,509
  33,601
  36,833
  40,206
  43,721
  47,380
  51,185
  55,141
  59,252
  63,523
  67,963
  72,577
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.050
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  80
  119
  169
  230
  305
  394
  498
  618
  754
  907
  1,099
  1,284
  1,485
  1,702
  1,934
  2,181
  2,443
  2,719
  3,009
  3,313
  3,631
  3,963
  4,309
  4,669
  5,043
  5,432
  5,837
  6,257
  6,693
  7,147
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  47
  53
  60
  70
  82
  95
  111
  130
  151
  175
  170
  199
  230
  264
  300
  338
  379
  422
  467
  514
  564
  615
  669
  725
  783
  844
  907
  972
  1,040
  1,111
Funds from operations, $m
  76
  126
  172
  229
  300
  387
  490
  610
  748
  906
  1,082
  1,268
  1,482
  1,715
  1,965
  2,234
  2,519
  2,822
  3,141
  3,476
  3,828
  4,195
  4,579
  4,978
  5,394
  5,826
  6,276
  6,743
  7,229
  7,733
  8,258
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  15
  20
  26
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  70
  79
  88
  96
  104
  112
  120
  128
  136
  143
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
Cash from operations, $m
  75
  212
  151
  203
  268
  348
  443
  556
  686
  835
  1,003
  1,181
  1,386
  1,610
  1,853
  2,113
  2,391
  2,686
  2,997
  3,325
  3,670
  4,030
  4,406
  4,799
  5,207
  5,632
  6,074
  6,533
  7,011
  7,507
  8,022
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -15
  -21
  -29
  -39
  -50
  -64
  -80
  -99
  -120
  -144
  -170
  -199
  -230
  -264
  -300
  -338
  -379
  -422
  -467
  -514
  -564
  -615
  -669
  -725
  -783
  -844
  -907
  -972
  -1,040
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -55
  -72
  -92
  -114
  -138
  -164
  -192
  -221
  -251
  -282
  -312
  -342
  -372
  -401
  -429
  -457
  -484
  -511
  -537
  -563
  -589
  -614
  -640
  -666
  -693
  -720
  -749
  -778
  -808
  -840
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -249
  -66
  -87
  -113
  -143
  -177
  -214
  -256
  -301
  -350
  -402
  -456
  -512
  -571
  -631
  -693
  -757
  -822
  -890
  -959
  -1,030
  -1,103
  -1,178
  -1,255
  -1,335
  -1,418
  -1,503
  -1,593
  -1,685
  -1,780
  -1,880
Free cash flow, $m
  -174
  146
  64
  90
  126
  171
  229
  300
  385
  485
  601
  725
  874
  1,040
  1,222
  1,420
  1,634
  1,863
  2,108
  2,367
  2,640
  2,927
  3,228
  3,543
  3,872
  4,214
  4,570
  4,941
  5,326
  5,726
  6,142
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  40
  52
  66
  82
  100
  119
  139
  160
  182
  204
  226
  248
  270
  291
  311
  331
  351
  370
  389
  408
  427
  445
  464
  483
  502
  522
  543
  564
  586
  609
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  0
  227
  279
  333
  386
  435
  477
  510
  531
  537
  536
  508
  463
  399
  316
  214
  95
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  20
  40
  279
  345
  415
  486
  554
  616
  670
  713
  741
  762
  756
  733
  690
  627
  545
  446
  370
  389
  408
  427
  445
  464
  483
  502
  522
  543
  564
  586
  609
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -154
  187
  116
  157
  208
  271
  348
  439
  545
  667
  805
  951
  1,122
  1,309
  1,513
  1,731
  1,965
  2,214
  2,478
  2,756
  3,048
  3,354
  3,674
  4,007
  4,355
  4,716
  5,093
  5,484
  5,890
  6,312
  6,751
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -332
  -263
  -343
  -436
  -541
  -657
  -783
  -916
  -1,055
  -1,198
  -1,342
  -1,487
  -1,631
  -1,772
  -1,911
  -2,047
  -2,180
  -2,309
  -2,436
  -2,560
  -2,684
  -2,806
  -2,928
  -3,051
  -3,176
  -3,303
  -3,433
  -3,568
  -3,708
  -3,853
  -4,005
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  58
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  42
  195
  364
  548
  746
  956
  1,179
  1,413
  1,659
  1,915
  2,182
  2,459
  2,746
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  55
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  8
  30
  46
  57
  62
  63
  60
  55
  48
  41
  34
  27
  21
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  93.2
  87.6
  82.9
  79.0
  75.7
  73.0
  70.8
  68.9
  67.4
  66.2
  65.3
  64.5
  64.0
  63.6
  63.4
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3
  63.3

Financial Engines, Inc. provides independent, technology-enabled personalized portfolio management services, investment advice, and retirement income services primarily to participants in employer-sponsored defined contribution plans in the United States. It offers investors to plan for retirement by offering personalized plans for saving, investing, and generating retirement income, as well as by providing assessments of retirement income needs and readiness. It provides Professional Management, a discretionary managed account service designed for plan participants who want affordable, personalized and professional portfolio management services, investment advice, and retirement income services from an independent investment advisor. The company also offers Online Advice, an Internet-based non-discretionary investment advisory service that offers personalized investment advice for plan participants who manage their portfolios directly. In addition, it provides Retirement Evaluation, a retirement readiness assessment provided to plan participants upon plan rollout; and social security claiming guidance through registered investment advisor representatives. The company delivers its services to plan sponsors and plan participants primarily through connections to eight retirement plan providers. Financial Engines, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Financial Engines (FNGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 89.5
Price to Sales 6.1
Price to Book 3.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 34.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 27.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity 5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58%
EBITDA Margin 17.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
Payout Ratio 58.6%

FNGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FNGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $424 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Financial Engines. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Financial Engines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FNGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 43% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FNGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Financial Engines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Financial Engines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FNGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FNGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Financial Engines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Financial Engines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FNGN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FNGN are equal to 30.3%.

Life of production assets of 11.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Financial Engines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FNGN is equal to 8.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $747 million for Financial Engines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 63.605 million for Financial Engines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Financial Engines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.


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