Intrinsic value of Financial Engines - FNGN

Previous Close

$38.55

  Intrinsic Value

$8.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

  Value-price divergence*

-107%

Previous close

$38.55

 
Intrinsic value

$8.91

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-107%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FNGN.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FNGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.33
  23.90
  22.01
  20.31
  18.78
  17.40
  16.16
  15.04
  14.04
  13.14
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
Revenue, $m
  424
  525
  641
  771
  916
  1,075
  1,249
  1,437
  1,639
  1,854
  2,082
  2,324
  2,578
  2,844
  3,123
  3,414
  3,718
  4,034
  4,363
  4,705
  5,060
  5,430
  5,813
  6,212
  6,627
  7,058
  7,507
  7,974
  8,460
  8,967
  9,495
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  435
  524
  624
  735
  857
  991
  1,135
  1,290
  1,456
  1,631
  1,786
  1,981
  2,186
  2,400
  2,624
  2,857
  3,100
  3,353
  3,615
  3,888
  4,172
  4,467
  4,774
  5,092
  5,424
  5,768
  6,127
  6,501
  6,890
  7,296
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  374
  435
  524
  624
  735
  857
  991
  1,135
  1,290
  1,456
  1,631
  1,786
  1,981
  2,186
  2,400
  2,624
  2,857
  3,100
  3,353
  3,615
  3,888
  4,172
  4,467
  4,774
  5,092
  5,424
  5,768
  6,127
  6,501
  6,890
  7,296
Operating income, $m
  50
  90
  117
  147
  181
  218
  258
  302
  348
  398
  451
  538
  597
  659
  723
  791
  861
  934
  1,010
  1,090
  1,172
  1,257
  1,346
  1,439
  1,535
  1,635
  1,738
  1,847
  1,959
  2,077
  2,199
EBITDA, $m
  74
  135
  165
  198
  235
  276
  321
  369
  421
  477
  535
  597
  663
  731
  803
  878
  956
  1,037
  1,121
  1,209
  1,301
  1,396
  1,494
  1,597
  1,703
  1,814
  1,930
  2,050
  2,175
  2,305
  2,441
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
Earnings before tax, $m
  49
  90
  116
  146
  178
  214
  253
  295
  341
  389
  440
  525
  582
  642
  705
  770
  838
  909
  983
  1,059
  1,139
  1,222
  1,308
  1,397
  1,490
  1,587
  1,687
  1,792
  1,901
  2,015
  2,133
Tax expense, $m
  20
  24
  31
  39
  48
  58
  68
  80
  92
  105
  119
  142
  157
  173
  190
  208
  226
  245
  265
  286
  308
  330
  353
  377
  402
  428
  456
  484
  513
  544
  576
Net income, $m
  29
  66
  85
  106
  130
  156
  185
  216
  249
  284
  321
  384
  425
  469
  514
  562
  612
  664
  717
  773
  831
  892
  955
  1,020
  1,088
  1,158
  1,232
  1,308
  1,388
  1,471
  1,557

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  840
  874
  1,066
  1,283
  1,524
  1,789
  2,078
  2,391
  2,727
  3,085
  3,465
  3,867
  4,289
  4,733
  5,197
  5,681
  6,186
  6,712
  7,260
  7,828
  8,420
  9,034
  9,673
  10,336
  11,026
  11,744
  12,490
  13,268
  14,077
  14,920
  15,799
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  706
  874
  1,066
  1,283
  1,524
  1,789
  2,078
  2,391
  2,727
  3,085
  3,465
  3,867
  4,289
  4,733
  5,197
  5,681
  6,186
  6,712
  7,260
  7,828
  8,420
  9,034
  9,673
  10,336
  11,026
  11,744
  12,490
  13,268
  14,077
  14,920
  15,799
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
Average production assets, $m
  129
  159
  194
  234
  278
  326
  378
  435
  497
  562
  631
  704
  781
  862
  946
  1,035
  1,127
  1,222
  1,322
  1,426
  1,533
  1,645
  1,761
  1,882
  2,008
  2,139
  2,275
  2,416
  2,563
  2,717
  2,877
Working capital, $m
  170
  45
  54
  66
  78
  91
  106
  122
  139
  158
  177
  198
  219
  242
  265
  290
  316
  343
  371
  400
  430
  462
  494
  528
  563
  600
  638
  678
  719
  762
  807
Total debt, $m
  0
  22
  48
  76
  108
  143
  181
  223
  267
  314
  364
  417
  473
  532
  593
  657
  724
  793
  865
  940
  1,018
  1,100
  1,184
  1,271
  1,362
  1,457
  1,556
  1,658
  1,765
  1,876
  1,992
Total liabilities, $m
  93
  115
  141
  169
  201
  236
  274
  316
  360
  407
  457
  510
  566
  625
  686
  750
  817
  886
  958
  1,033
  1,111
  1,193
  1,277
  1,364
  1,455
  1,550
  1,649
  1,751
  1,858
  1,969
  2,085
Total equity, $m
  747
  759
  926
  1,114
  1,323
  1,553
  1,804
  2,075
  2,367
  2,678
  3,008
  3,356
  3,723
  4,108
  4,511
  4,931
  5,370
  5,826
  6,301
  6,795
  7,308
  7,842
  8,396
  8,972
  9,571
  10,194
  10,842
  11,516
  12,219
  12,950
  13,713
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  840
  874
  1,067
  1,283
  1,524
  1,789
  2,078
  2,391
  2,727
  3,085
  3,465
  3,866
  4,289
  4,733
  5,197
  5,681
  6,187
  6,712
  7,259
  7,828
  8,419
  9,035
  9,673
  10,336
  11,026
  11,744
  12,491
  13,267
  14,077
  14,919
  15,798
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868
  0.868

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  66
  85
  106
  130
  156
  185
  216
  249
  284
  321
  384
  425
  469
  514
  562
  612
  664
  717
  773
  831
  892
  955
  1,020
  1,088
  1,158
  1,232
  1,308
  1,388
  1,471
  1,557
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  59
  66
  72
  80
  87
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  242
Funds from operations, $m
  76
  111
  133
  157
  185
  215
  248
  283
  322
  362
  405
  443
  491
  541
  594
  649
  706
  766
  828
  893
  960
  1,030
  1,103
  1,178
  1,257
  1,338
  1,423
  1,511
  1,603
  1,699
  1,799
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
Cash from operations, $m
  75
  102
  123
  146
  172
  201
  233
  267
  304
  344
  386
  422
  469
  519
  570
  624
  681
  739
  800
  864
  930
  999
  1,070
  1,144
  1,221
  1,301
  1,385
  1,472
  1,562
  1,656
  1,754
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -72
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -228
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -154
  -160
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -249
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -64
  -71
  -80
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -147
  -156
  -168
  -179
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -228
  -241
  -254
  -269
  -284
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -350
  -369
  -388
Free cash flow, $m
  -174
  61
  74
  90
  109
  130
  153
  179
  207
  237
  270
  296
  333
  372
  413
  457
  502
  549
  598
  649
  703
  758
  816
  875
  937
  1,002
  1,069
  1,139
  1,212
  1,287
  1,366
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  22
  25
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  80
  82
  82
  79
  74
  66
  56
  43
  27
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  20
  102
  107
  111
  111
  109
  104
  97
  87
  74
  59
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -154
  163
  182
  201
  220
  239
  257
  276
  294
  311
  329
  349
  389
  431
  475
  520
  568
  618
  670
  724
  781
  839
  900
  963
  1,029
  1,097
  1,168
  1,242
  1,318
  1,398
  1,482
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -332
  -146
  -167
  -188
  -209
  -230
  -251
  -271
  -291
  -311
  -330
  -349
  -367
  -385
  -403
  -421
  -438
  -457
  -475
  -494
  -513
  -533
  -554
  -576
  -599
  -623
  -648
  -674
  -702
  -732
  -763
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  151
  15
  13
  11
  8
  6
  4
  2
  0
  -1
  0
  22
  46
  72
  100
  130
  162
  195
  231
  267
  306
  346
  387
  430
  474
  520
  567
  616
  667
  719
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  145
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  3
  1
  0
  -1
  0
  9
  17
  24
  29
  33
  35
  36
  36
  34
  32
  29
  25
  22
  18
  15
  12
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.1
  93.0
  90.5
  88.5
  87.0
  85.9
  85.0
  84.5
  84.2
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1

Financial Engines, Inc. provides independent, technology-enabled personalized portfolio management services, investment advice, and retirement income services primarily to participants in employer-sponsored defined contribution plans in the United States. It offers investors to plan for retirement by offering personalized plans for saving, investing, and generating retirement income, as well as by providing assessments of retirement income needs and readiness. It provides Professional Management, a discretionary managed account service designed for plan participants who want affordable, personalized and professional portfolio management services, investment advice, and retirement income services from an independent investment advisor. The company also offers Online Advice, an Internet-based non-discretionary investment advisory service that offers personalized investment advice for plan participants who manage their portfolios directly. In addition, it provides Retirement Evaluation, a retirement readiness assessment provided to plan participants upon plan rollout; and social security claiming guidance through registered investment advisor representatives. The company delivers its services to plan sponsors and plan participants primarily through connections to eight retirement plan providers. Financial Engines, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Financial Engines (FNGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 82.7
Price to Sales 5.7
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32
Price to Free Cash Flow 39.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 27.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity 5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58%
EBITDA Margin 17.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
Payout Ratio 58.6%

FNGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FNGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $424 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Financial Engines. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Financial Engines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FNGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FNGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Financial Engines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Financial Engines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FNGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FNGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Financial Engines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Financial Engines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FNGN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FNGN are equal to 30.3%.

Life of production assets of 11.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Financial Engines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FNGN is equal to 8.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $747 million for Financial Engines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.099 million for Financial Engines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Financial Engines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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Stock chart of FNGN Financial statements of FNGN Annual reports of FNGN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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