Intrinsic value of Federated National Holding - FNHC

Previous Close

$15.51

  Intrinsic Value

$621.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$15.51

 
Intrinsic value

$621.07

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FNHC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FNHC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  26.40
  34.80
  31.82
  29.14
  26.72
  24.55
  22.60
  20.84
  19.25
  17.83
  16.55
  15.39
  14.35
  13.42
  12.57
  11.82
  11.14
  10.52
  9.97
  9.47
  9.03
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.38
  7.14
  6.93
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
Revenue, $m
  0
  426
  562
  725
  919
  1,145
  1,403
  1,696
  2,022
  2,382
  2,777
  3,204
  3,664
  4,155
  4,678
  5,231
  5,813
  6,425
  7,065
  7,735
  8,433
  9,160
  9,916
  10,703
  11,521
  12,371
  13,254
  14,172
  15,126
  16,118
  17,151
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  316
  416
  537
  681
  848
  1,040
  1,256
  1,498
  1,765
  2,057
  2,374
  2,715
  3,079
  3,466
  3,876
  4,307
  4,761
  5,235
  5,731
  6,249
  6,787
  7,348
  7,931
  8,537
  9,167
  9,821
  10,502
  11,209
  11,944
  12,709
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  313
  316
  416
  537
  681
  848
  1,040
  1,256
  1,498
  1,765
  2,057
  2,374
  2,715
  3,079
  3,466
  3,876
  4,307
  4,761
  5,235
  5,731
  6,249
  6,787
  7,348
  7,931
  8,537
  9,167
  9,821
  10,502
  11,209
  11,944
  12,709
Operating income, $m
  3
  110
  145
  188
  238
  296
  363
  439
  524
  617
  719
  830
  949
  1,076
  1,212
  1,355
  1,506
  1,664
  1,830
  2,003
  2,184
  2,372
  2,568
  2,772
  2,984
  3,204
  3,433
  3,671
  3,918
  4,175
  4,442
EBITDA, $m
  4
  110
  145
  188
  238
  296
  363
  439
  524
  617
  719
  830
  949
  1,076
  1,212
  1,355
  1,506
  1,664
  1,830
  2,003
  2,184
  2,372
  2,568
  2,772
  2,984
  3,204
  3,433
  3,671
  3,918
  4,175
  4,442
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  7
  16
  27
  40
  55
  72
  91
  112
  136
  162
  190
  220
  253
  287
  323
  362
  402
  444
  488
  534
  582
  632
  683
  737
  793
  851
  911
  974
  1,040
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  110
  138
  171
  211
  257
  309
  367
  433
  505
  583
  668
  759
  856
  959
  1,068
  1,182
  1,302
  1,428
  1,559
  1,696
  1,838
  1,987
  2,141
  2,301
  2,467
  2,640
  2,819
  3,006
  3,200
  3,403
Tax expense, $m
  3
  30
  37
  46
  57
  69
  83
  99
  117
  136
  157
  180
  205
  231
  259
  288
  319
  352
  386
  421
  458
  496
  536
  578
  621
  666
  713
  761
  812
  864
  919
Net income, $m
  0
  80
  101
  125
  154
  187
  225
  268
  316
  368
  426
  488
  554
  625
  700
  779
  863
  951
  1,042
  1,138
  1,238
  1,342
  1,450
  1,563
  1,679
  1,801
  1,927
  2,058
  2,195
  2,336
  2,484

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  813
  1,095
  1,443
  1,864
  2,362
  2,942
  3,607
  4,359
  5,198
  6,124
  7,138
  8,236
  9,418
  10,682
  12,025
  13,446
  14,944
  16,516
  18,163
  19,883
  21,678
  23,547
  25,492
  27,515
  29,617
  31,802
  34,072
  36,432
  38,885
  41,436
  44,089
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  813
  1,095
  1,443
  1,864
  2,362
  2,942
  3,607
  4,359
  5,198
  6,124
  7,138
  8,236
  9,418
  10,682
  12,025
  13,446
  14,944
  16,516
  18,163
  19,883
  21,678
  23,547
  25,492
  27,515
  29,617
  31,802
  34,072
  36,432
  38,885
  41,436
  44,089
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  51
  59
  66
  75
  84
  93
  103
  113
  124
  135
  147
  159
  171
  184
  198
  212
  227
  242
  258
  274
Total debt, $m
  5
  211
  466
  774
  1,138
  1,562
  2,048
  2,597
  3,211
  3,888
  4,629
  5,432
  6,296
  7,220
  8,201
  9,240
  10,335
  11,484
  12,688
  13,946
  15,257
  16,624
  18,046
  19,524
  21,061
  22,658
  24,318
  26,043
  27,836
  29,700
  31,640
Total liabilities, $m
  594
  800
  1,055
  1,363
  1,727
  2,151
  2,637
  3,186
  3,800
  4,477
  5,218
  6,021
  6,885
  7,809
  8,790
  9,829
  10,924
  12,073
  13,277
  14,535
  15,846
  17,213
  18,635
  20,113
  21,650
  23,247
  24,907
  26,632
  28,425
  30,289
  32,229
Total equity, $m
  219
  295
  388
  501
  635
  791
  970
  1,172
  1,398
  1,647
  1,920
  2,216
  2,534
  2,873
  3,235
  3,617
  4,020
  4,443
  4,886
  5,349
  5,831
  6,334
  6,857
  7,401
  7,967
  8,555
  9,165
  9,800
  10,460
  11,146
  11,860
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  813
  1,095
  1,443
  1,864
  2,362
  2,942
  3,607
  4,358
  5,198
  6,124
  7,138
  8,237
  9,419
  10,682
  12,025
  13,446
  14,944
  16,516
  18,163
  19,884
  21,677
  23,547
  25,492
  27,514
  29,617
  31,802
  34,072
  36,432
  38,885
  41,435
  44,089
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.023
  0.720
  1.200
  1.540
  1.790
  1.970
  2.110
  2.220
  2.300
  2.360
  2.410
  2.450
  2.480
  2.510
  2.540
  2.550
  2.570
  2.580
  2.600
  2.610
  2.620
  2.620
  2.630
  2.640
  2.640
  2.650
  2.650
  2.660
  2.660
  2.660
  2.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  80
  101
  125
  154
  187
  225
  268
  316
  368
  426
  488
  554
  625
  700
  779
  863
  951
  1,042
  1,138
  1,238
  1,342
  1,450
  1,563
  1,679
  1,801
  1,927
  2,058
  2,195
  2,336
  2,484
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  132
  80
  101
  125
  154
  187
  225
  268
  316
  368
  426
  488
  554
  625
  700
  779
  863
  951
  1,042
  1,138
  1,238
  1,342
  1,450
  1,563
  1,679
  1,801
  1,927
  2,058
  2,195
  2,336
  2,484
Change in working capital, $m
  62
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  70
  79
  99
  123
  151
  184
  221
  264
  311
  363
  419
  481
  547
  617
  692
  771
  854
  941
  1,032
  1,127
  1,227
  1,330
  1,438
  1,550
  1,666
  1,787
  1,913
  2,044
  2,179
  2,320
  2,467
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  79
  99
  123
  151
  184
  221
  264
  311
  363
  419
  481
  547
  617
  692
  771
  854
  941
  1,032
  1,127
  1,227
  1,330
  1,438
  1,550
  1,666
  1,787
  1,913
  2,044
  2,179
  2,320
  2,467
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  206
  255
  307
  364
  424
  486
  549
  613
  677
  741
  803
  864
  924
  982
  1,039
  1,095
  1,149
  1,204
  1,258
  1,312
  1,366
  1,422
  1,479
  1,537
  1,597
  1,660
  1,725
  1,793
  1,865
  1,940
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -10
  206
  255
  307
  364
  424
  486
  549
  613
  677
  741
  803
  864
  924
  982
  1,039
  1,095
  1,149
  1,204
  1,258
  1,312
  1,366
  1,422
  1,479
  1,537
  1,597
  1,660
  1,725
  1,793
  1,865
  1,940
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  27
  285
  353
  430
  515
  608
  707
  813
  924
  1,040
  1,160
  1,284
  1,411
  1,541
  1,674
  1,809
  1,948
  2,090
  2,236
  2,385
  2,539
  2,697
  2,860
  3,029
  3,203
  3,384
  3,573
  3,768
  3,972
  4,185
  4,407
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  14
  -76
  -94
  -113
  -134
  -156
  -179
  -202
  -226
  -249
  -273
  -296
  -318
  -340
  -361
  -382
  -403
  -423
  -443
  -463
  -483
  -503
  -523
  -544
  -566
  -588
  -611
  -635
  -660
  -686
  -714
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  210
  260
  317
  381
  452
  528
  611
  698
  791
  887
  988
  1,093
  1,201
  1,312
  1,427
  1,545
  1,667
  1,793
  1,922
  2,056
  2,194
  2,337
  2,484
  2,638
  2,797
  2,962
  3,134
  3,313
  3,499
  3,693
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  201
  238
  276
  314
  350
  383
  413
  437
  454
  465
  469
  466
  457
  441
  419
  393
  363
  330
  296
  261
  227
  194
  163
  134
  109
  86
  67
  51
  38
  28
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Federated National Holding Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in insurance underwriting, distribution, and claims processing in the United States. The company underwrites homeowners’ multi-peril, commercial general liability, federal flood, workers’ compensation, personal and commercial automobile, fire, allied lines, and various other lines of insurance. It markets and distributes its own and third-party insurers’ products and its other services through a network of independent agents. The company was formerly known as 21st Century Holding Company and changed its name to Federated National Holding Company in September 2012. Federated National Holding Company was founded in 1991 and is based in Sunrise, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Federated National Holding (FNHC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 26.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 2.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 1.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Operating Margin 0.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Effective Tax Rate 100%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

FNHC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FNHC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $316 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Federated National Holding. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Federated National Holding. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FNHC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 34.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FNHC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Federated National Holding, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Federated National Holding.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FNHC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FNHC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Federated National Holding.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Federated National Holding. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FNHC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FNHC are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Federated National Holding operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FNHC is equal to 1.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $219 million for Federated National Holding - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.816 million for Federated National Holding is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Federated National Holding at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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RLI RLI 54.23 56.72  hold
ERIE Erie Indemnity 122.73 129.15  hold
HCI HCI Group 39.65 146.47  str.buy
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TRV Travelers Cos. 127.45 295.13  str.buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Federated National posts 2Q profit   [Aug-07-17 07:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Federated National posts 1Q profit   [May-09-17 05:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Federated National reports 4Q loss   [Mar-09-17 04:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Federated National Holding Co (FNHC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-14-16 06:12AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of FNHC Financial statements of FNHC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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