Intrinsic value of Ferro Corp. - FOE

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$18.12

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FOE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.51
  3.60
  3.74
  3.87
  3.98
  4.08
  4.17
  4.26
  4.33
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  1,145
  1,114
  1,155
  1,200
  1,248
  1,299
  1,353
  1,410
  1,472
  1,536
  1,605
  1,677
  1,754
  1,834
  1,920
  2,009
  2,104
  2,204
  2,309
  2,419
  2,536
  2,658
  2,787
  2,923
  3,065
  3,215
  3,373
  3,538
  3,712
  3,895
  4,087
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,138
  1,180
  1,225
  1,273
  1,324
  1,379
  1,437
  1,499
  1,564
  1,633
  1,691
  1,768
  1,850
  1,936
  2,026
  2,122
  2,222
  2,328
  2,440
  2,557
  2,681
  2,811
  2,947
  3,091
  3,242
  3,401
  3,568
  3,743
  3,928
  4,122
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,052
  1,138
  1,180
  1,225
  1,273
  1,324
  1,379
  1,437
  1,499
  1,564
  1,633
  1,691
  1,768
  1,850
  1,936
  2,026
  2,122
  2,222
  2,328
  2,440
  2,557
  2,681
  2,811
  2,947
  3,091
  3,242
  3,401
  3,568
  3,743
  3,928
  4,122
Operating income, $m
  94
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
EBITDA, $m
  141
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
Earnings before tax, $m
  62
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -150
Tax expense, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -21
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -150

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,284
  1,209
  1,254
  1,303
  1,355
  1,410
  1,469
  1,531
  1,598
  1,668
  1,742
  1,821
  1,904
  1,992
  2,084
  2,182
  2,285
  2,393
  2,507
  2,627
  2,753
  2,886
  3,026
  3,173
  3,328
  3,491
  3,662
  3,842
  4,031
  4,229
  4,438
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,238
  1,209
  1,254
  1,303
  1,355
  1,410
  1,469
  1,531
  1,598
  1,668
  1,742
  1,821
  1,904
  1,992
  2,084
  2,182
  2,285
  2,393
  2,507
  2,627
  2,753
  2,886
  3,026
  3,173
  3,328
  3,491
  3,662
  3,842
  4,031
  4,229
  4,438
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.925
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
  0.921
Average production assets, $m
  384
  331
  343
  356
  371
  386
  402
  419
  437
  456
  477
  498
  521
  545
  570
  597
  625
  655
  686
  719
  753
  790
  828
  868
  910
  955
  1,002
  1,051
  1,103
  1,157
  1,214
Working capital, $m
  336
  295
  306
  318
  331
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  465
  486
  509
  532
  558
  584
  612
  641
  672
  704
  739
  775
  812
  852
  894
  938
  984
  1,032
  1,083
Total debt, $m
  574
  499
  533
  571
  611
  654
  699
  747
  798
  853
  910
  971
  1,035
  1,103
  1,174
  1,249
  1,329
  1,412
  1,500
  1,593
  1,691
  1,793
  1,901
  2,015
  2,134
  2,260
  2,392
  2,531
  2,677
  2,830
  2,991
Total liabilities, $m
  1,037
  934
  968
  1,006
  1,046
  1,089
  1,134
  1,182
  1,233
  1,288
  1,345
  1,406
  1,470
  1,538
  1,609
  1,684
  1,764
  1,847
  1,935
  2,028
  2,126
  2,228
  2,336
  2,450
  2,569
  2,695
  2,827
  2,966
  3,112
  3,265
  3,426
Total equity, $m
  247
  276
  286
  297
  309
  322
  335
  349
  364
  380
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  497
  521
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  690
  724
  759
  796
  835
  876
  919
  964
  1,012
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,284
  1,210
  1,254
  1,303
  1,355
  1,411
  1,469
  1,531
  1,597
  1,668
  1,742
  1,821
  1,904
  1,992
  2,084
  2,181
  2,285
  2,393
  2,507
  2,627
  2,754
  2,886
  3,026
  3,174
  3,328
  3,491
  3,662
  3,842
  4,031
  4,229
  4,438
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.324
  1.810
  1.870
  1.920
  1.980
  2.030
  2.090
  2.140
  2.190
  2.240
  2.290
  2.340
  2.380
  2.430
  2.470
  2.510
  2.550
  2.590
  2.620
  2.660
  2.690
  2.720
  2.760
  2.780
  2.810
  2.840
  2.860
  2.890
  2.910
  2.930
  2.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.171
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -21
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -150
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
Funds from operations, $m
  38
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  63
  41
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -151
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
Free cash flow, $m
  -88
  0
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  93
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -10
  0
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  140
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  82
  33
  63
  66
  71
  76
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  219
  232
  244
  258
  271
  285
  301
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -13
  32
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  69
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  67
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  97.9
  95.9
  93.8
  91.7
  89.7
  87.6
  85.6
  83.6
  81.6
  79.6
  77.6
  75.7
  73.8
  71.9
  70.0
  68.1
  66.3
  64.5
  62.8
  61.1
  59.4
  57.7
  56.1
  54.5
  52.9
  51.4
  49.9
  48.4
  47.0

Ferro Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces specialty materials in the United States and internationally. It operates through four business units: Tile Coating Systems; Porcelain Enamel; Performance Colors and Glass; and Pigments, Powders and Oxides. The company’s products include frits, porcelain and other glass enamels, glazes, stains, decorating colors, pigments, inks, polishing materials, specialty dielectrics, electronic glasses, and other specialty coatings. Its products are used in appliances, automobiles, building and renovation, electronics, household furnishings, industrial products, and packaging. The company markets and sells its products to manufacturers of ceramic tile, major appliances, construction materials, automobile parts, automobile, architectural and container glass, and electronic components and devices, as well as through agents and distributors. Ferro Corporation was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Mayfield Heights, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ferro Corp. (FOE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -72
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24
Price to Free Cash Flow 39.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -41.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 225.5%
Total Debt to Equity 232.4%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital -2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Equity -7.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
EBITDA Margin 11%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Operating Margin 8.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Net Profit Margin -1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Effective Tax Rate 27.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

FOE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FOE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1075 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ferro Corp.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ferro Corp.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FOE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for FOE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ferro Corp., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ferro Corp..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FOE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 102.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FOE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Ferro Corp..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ferro Corp.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FOE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FOE are equal to 29.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ferro Corp. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FOE is equal to 26.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $316 million for Ferro Corp. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 83.275 million for Ferro Corp. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ferro Corp. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ The ethics of owning Venezuelan debt: CIO   [May-31-17 02:39PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ferro Corp. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ferro Corp. : April 28, 2017   [Apr-28-17 03:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ferro beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-25-17 05:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ferro reports 4Q loss   [Mar-01-17 06:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge Funds Arent Crazy About Ferro Corporation (FOE) Anymore   [Dec-07-16 10:19AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Sprint, Ferro, and 3D Systems Slumped Today   [Jul-18-16 06:17PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Ferro Said to Draw Final-Round Interest From Apollo, CVC   [Jul-06-16 12:39PM  at Bloomberg]
▶ Tribunes Attempt to Fend Off Gannett Heads for Symbolic Vote   [12:12AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Tribune Takes Fight to Shareholders   [Jun-01-16 07:48PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of FOE Financial statements of FOE Annual reports of FOE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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