Intrinsic value of Forrester Research - FORR

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$39.55

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$39.55

 
Intrinsic value

$39.87

 
Up/down potential

+1%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FORR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.82
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  326
  333
  340
  349
  359
  370
  382
  395
  409
  424
  440
  457
  476
  496
  517
  539
  563
  588
  614
  642
  672
  703
  735
  770
  807
  845
  885
  928
  973
  1,020
  1,069
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  248
  254
  261
  267
  274
  281
  288
  295
  302
  310
  318
  325
  334
  342
  350
  359
  368
  377
  387
  397
  406
  417
  427
  438
  449
  460
  471
  483
  495
  508
Total operating expenses, $m
  295
  310
  317
  326
  333
  342
  351
  360
  370
  379
  390
  393
  403
  416
  427
  439
  452
  465
  478
  493
  508
  522
  538
  554
  571
  588
  606
  624
  643
  663
  684
Operating income, $m
  31
  22
  23
  24
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  44
  50
  65
  72
  81
  90
  100
  111
  123
  136
  149
  164
  181
  198
  216
  236
  257
  280
  304
  329
  357
  386
EBITDA, $m
  40
  32
  32
  33
  35
  38
  41
  45
  50
  55
  61
  68
  76
  84
  94
  104
  115
  127
  140
  154
  169
  186
  203
  222
  242
  263
  286
  311
  337
  364
  394
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  30
  34
  38
  43
  49
  63
  70
  78
  87
  96
  107
  118
  131
  144
  159
  174
  191
  209
  228
  248
  270
  293
  318
  345
  373
Tax expense, $m
  13
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  62
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  101
Net income, $m
  18
  16
  17
  17
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  46
  51
  57
  63
  70
  78
  86
  96
  105
  116
  127
  139
  152
  166
  181
  197
  214
  232
  252
  272

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  138
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  336
  202
  207
  212
  218
  225
  232
  240
  248
  257
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  327
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  538
  564
  591
  620
  650
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  198
  202
  207
  212
  218
  225
  232
  240
  248
  257
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  327
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  538
  564
  591
  620
  650
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.646
  1.649
  1.643
  1.646
  1.647
  1.644
  1.647
  1.646
  1.649
  1.650
  1.648
  1.644
  1.647
  1.648
  1.646
  1.648
  1.646
  1.647
  1.646
  1.646
  1.647
  1.646
  1.644
  1.645
  1.647
  1.647
  1.645
  1.645
  1.646
  1.645
  1.645
Average production assets, $m
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
Working capital, $m
  46
  -94
  -96
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -288
  -302
Total debt, $m
  0
  -4
  0
  5
  10
  16
  23
  30
  37
  46
  55
  64
  74
  85
  97
  109
  122
  135
  150
  165
  181
  198
  216
  235
  255
  276
  298
  321
  346
  372
  399
Total liabilities, $m
  186
  182
  186
  191
  196
  202
  209
  216
  223
  232
  241
  250
  260
  271
  283
  295
  308
  321
  336
  351
  367
  384
  402
  421
  441
  462
  484
  507
  532
  558
  585
Total equity, $m
  150
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  336
  202
  207
  212
  218
  224
  232
  240
  248
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  314
  328
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  538
  563
  591
  620
  650
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.210
  0.000
  0.230
  0.470
  0.720
  0.980
  1.240
  1.510
  1.780
  2.040
  2.310
  2.570
  2.820
  3.080
  3.320
  3.560
  3.790
  4.010
  4.230
  4.440
  4.640
  4.840
  5.020
  5.200
  5.380
  5.540
  5.700
  5.850
  6.000
  6.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.061
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  16
  17
  17
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  46
  51
  57
  63
  70
  78
  86
  96
  105
  116
  127
  139
  152
  166
  181
  197
  214
  232
  252
  272
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Funds from operations, $m
  46
  26
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  82
  91
  100
  110
  121
  132
  145
  158
  172
  188
  204
  221
  239
  259
  280
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  42
  26
  29
  30
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  51
  54
  60
  66
  73
  81
  89
  98
  108
  118
  129
  141
  154
  168
  183
  198
  215
  233
  252
  272
  294
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -18
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
Free cash flow, $m
  24
  23
  26
  26
  28
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  83
  92
  101
  111
  122
  134
  146
  160
  174
  189
  206
  223
  242
  261
  282
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  16
  -4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  37
  19
  30
  31
  33
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  65
  72
  79
  87
  96
  105
  115
  126
  138
  151
  164
  178
  194
  210
  228
  246
  266
  287
  309
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -23
  -8
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  138
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  149
  29
  31
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  49
  54
  58
  64
  71
  78
  86
  94
  104
  114
  125
  136
  149
  162
  176
  192
  208
  225
  244
  263
  284
  306
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  142
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  28
  28
  27
  27
  27
  26
  25
  24
  23
  21
  19
  17
  15
  13
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Forrester Research Inc. operates as an independent research, data, and advisory services firm. It operates through Research, Product, and Project Consulting segments. The company’s primary syndicated research product is RoleView, which offers clients with access to its syndicated research designed to inform their strategic decision-making. The RoleView research offerings consist of cross-linked documents that interconnect the company’s reports, data, product rankings, best practices, evaluation tools, and research archives, which are provided through role-based Websites. It also offers Forrester Leadership Boards that are peer groups for executives and other senior leaders at large organizations. In addition, the company provides data products and services, including Customer Experience Index, a framework for assessing and measuring customer experience quality; Consumer Technographics that offers insights into how technology impacts the way consumers select, purchase, use, and communicate about products and services; Business Technographics, which provides assessments of what motivates businesses to choose certain technologies and vendors, as well as measures and reports on the current information consumption patterns of key influencers for large technology purchases; and ForecastView, an ongoing data program that provides a detailed evaluation of market size, based on expert analysis and quantitative insights from consumer and business surveys. Further, it offers consulting services to assist clients in developing and executing technology and business strategy, informing critical decisions, and reducing business risk, as well as hosts multiple events. The company sells its products and services through direct sales force in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; and through independent sales representatives in selected international locations. Forrester Research, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Forrester Research (FORR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.3
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 13%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Equity 13%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Operating Margin 9.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 5.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 41.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.2%
Payout Ratio 72.2%

FORR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FORR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $326 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Forrester Research. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Forrester Research. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FORR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FORR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Forrester Research, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Forrester Research.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FORR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 18.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $242 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FORR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Forrester Research.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Forrester Research. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FORR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FORR are equal to 8.3%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Forrester Research operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FORR is equal to -28.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $150 million for Forrester Research - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.829 million for Forrester Research is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Forrester Research at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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Stock chart of FORR Financial statements of FORR Annual reports of FORR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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