Intrinsic value of Farmland Partners - FPI

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$8.87

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  121.43
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  31
  22
  35
  52
  75
  106
  146
  196
  257
  330
  417
  518
  633
  764
  908
  1,068
  1,243
  1,431
  1,634
  1,851
  2,081
  2,324
  2,580
  2,849
  3,130
  3,424
  3,730
  4,049
  4,381
  4,727
  5,085
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  10
  15
  22
  32
  45
  62
  84
  110
  142
  179
  222
  272
  328
  390
  458
  533
  614
  701
  794
  893
  997
  1,107
  1,222
  1,343
  1,469
  1,600
  1,737
  1,880
  2,028
  2,182
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Total operating expenses, $m
  15
  12
  17
  24
  34
  47
  64
  86
  112
  144
  182
  225
  275
  331
  393
  461
  536
  617
  704
  797
  896
  1,000
  1,110
  1,226
  1,347
  1,473
  1,604
  1,741
  1,884
  2,032
  2,186
Operating income, $m
  16
  11
  18
  27
  41
  58
  81
  109
  144
  186
  236
  293
  359
  433
  516
  607
  707
  814
  930
  1,054
  1,185
  1,324
  1,470
  1,623
  1,784
  1,951
  2,126
  2,308
  2,498
  2,695
  2,900
EBITDA, $m
  18
  24
  37
  57
  84
  119
  164
  221
  291
  375
  475
  590
  722
  870
  1,036
  1,219
  1,418
  1,634
  1,866
  2,113
  2,376
  2,654
  2,947
  3,254
  3,576
  3,912
  4,262
  4,627
  5,007
  5,401
  5,812
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  7
  11
  19
  29
  42
  60
  84
  113
  149
  192
  243
  302
  370
  446
  532
  625
  728
  838
  958
  1,085
  1,220
  1,363
  1,513
  1,671
  1,836
  2,008
  2,188
  2,375
  2,570
  2,773
Earnings before tax, $m
  6
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  20
  26
  31
  37
  44
  50
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  91
  96
  100
  104
  107
  110
  113
  116
  118
  120
  122
  124
  127
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
Net income, $m
  4
  3
  5
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  70
  73
  76
  78
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  89
  91
  92

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  656
  509
  787
  1,176
  1,707
  2,408
  3,310
  4,443
  5,835
  7,508
  9,483
  11,775
  14,397
  17,353
  20,646
  24,276
  28,239
  32,529
  37,140
  42,063
  47,291
  52,818
  58,637
  64,745
  71,138
  77,816
  84,779
  92,031
  99,576
  107,421
  115,575
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  609
  509
  787
  1,176
  1,707
  2,408
  3,310
  4,443
  5,835
  7,508
  9,483
  11,775
  14,397
  17,353
  20,646
  24,276
  28,239
  32,529
  37,140
  42,063
  47,291
  52,818
  58,637
  64,745
  71,138
  77,816
  84,779
  92,031
  99,576
  107,421
  115,575
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.051
  0.043
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
  0.044
Average production assets, $m
  455
  385
  595
  889
  1,290
  1,820
  2,502
  3,359
  4,410
  5,675
  7,168
  8,901
  10,882
  13,117
  15,606
  18,350
  21,345
  24,588
  28,073
  31,794
  35,746
  39,923
  44,322
  48,939
  53,772
  58,819
  64,083
  69,564
  75,267
  81,197
  87,360
Working capital, $m
  0
  -38
  -59
  -89
  -129
  -182
  -250
  -335
  -440
  -566
  -715
  -888
  -1,086
  -1,309
  -1,557
  -1,831
  -2,130
  -2,453
  -2,801
  -3,172
  -3,566
  -3,983
  -4,422
  -4,883
  -5,365
  -5,869
  -6,394
  -6,941
  -7,510
  -8,101
  -8,716
Total debt, $m
  309
  326
  530
  818
  1,210
  1,727
  2,393
  3,229
  4,256
  5,491
  6,948
  8,640
  10,575
  12,756
  15,187
  17,866
  20,791
  23,957
  27,359
  30,992
  34,851
  38,929
  43,224
  47,732
  52,450
  57,378
  62,517
  67,869
  73,437
  79,226
  85,244
Total liabilities, $m
  494
  376
  580
  868
  1,260
  1,777
  2,443
  3,279
  4,306
  5,541
  6,998
  8,690
  10,625
  12,806
  15,237
  17,916
  20,841
  24,007
  27,409
  31,042
  34,901
  38,979
  43,274
  47,782
  52,500
  57,428
  62,567
  67,919
  73,487
  79,276
  85,294
Total equity, $m
  162
  133
  206
  308
  447
  631
  867
  1,164
  1,529
  1,967
  2,484
  3,085
  3,772
  4,546
  5,409
  6,360
  7,399
  8,523
  9,731
  11,020
  12,390
  13,838
  15,363
  16,963
  18,638
  20,388
  22,212
  24,112
  26,089
  28,144
  30,281
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  656
  509
  786
  1,176
  1,707
  2,408
  3,310
  4,443
  5,835
  7,508
  9,482
  11,775
  14,397
  17,352
  20,646
  24,276
  28,240
  32,530
  37,140
  42,062
  47,291
  52,817
  58,637
  64,745
  71,138
  77,816
  84,779
  92,031
  99,576
  107,420
  115,575
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.907
  2.440
  2.570
  2.650
  2.700
  2.740
  2.760
  2.770
  2.780
  2.790
  2.800
  2.800
  2.800
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.810
  2.820
  2.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.189
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  3
  5
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  70
  73
  76
  78
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  89
  91
  92
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  13
  20
  30
  43
  61
  83
  112
  147
  189
  239
  297
  363
  437
  520
  612
  712
  820
  936
  1,060
  1,192
  1,331
  1,477
  1,631
  1,792
  1,961
  2,136
  2,319
  2,509
  2,707
  2,912
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  16
  24
  36
  52
  72
  98
  131
  170
  216
  271
  333
  404
  483
  571
  667
  771
  883
  1,003
  1,130
  1,265
  1,407
  1,556
  1,712
  1,875
  2,045
  2,222
  2,407
  2,598
  2,797
  3,004
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -14
  -21
  -29
  -40
  -53
  -68
  -85
  -105
  -126
  -149
  -173
  -198
  -223
  -248
  -274
  -299
  -324
  -348
  -371
  -394
  -417
  -439
  -461
  -482
  -504
  -525
  -547
  -569
  -592
  -615
Cash from operations, $m
  5
  106
  45
  65
  92
  125
  166
  216
  275
  342
  420
  506
  602
  706
  819
  941
  1,070
  1,206
  1,350
  1,501
  1,659
  1,823
  1,995
  2,172
  2,357
  2,549
  2,747
  2,953
  3,167
  3,389
  3,619
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -13
  -20
  -30
  -43
  -61
  -83
  -112
  -147
  -189
  -239
  -297
  -363
  -437
  -520
  -612
  -712
  -820
  -936
  -1,060
  -1,192
  -1,331
  -1,477
  -1,631
  -1,792
  -1,961
  -2,136
  -2,319
  -2,509
  -2,707
New CAPEX, $m
  -137
  -144
  -210
  -295
  -401
  -530
  -682
  -856
  -1,051
  -1,265
  -1,493
  -1,733
  -1,981
  -2,234
  -2,490
  -2,744
  -2,995
  -3,243
  -3,485
  -3,721
  -3,952
  -4,178
  -4,399
  -4,617
  -4,833
  -5,048
  -5,263
  -5,481
  -5,703
  -5,930
  -6,163
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -137
  -152
  -223
  -315
  -431
  -573
  -743
  -939
  -1,163
  -1,412
  -1,682
  -1,972
  -2,278
  -2,597
  -2,927
  -3,264
  -3,607
  -3,955
  -4,305
  -4,657
  -5,012
  -5,370
  -5,730
  -6,094
  -6,464
  -6,840
  -7,224
  -7,617
  -8,022
  -8,439
  -8,870
Free cash flow, $m
  -132
  -47
  -177
  -249
  -339
  -448
  -576
  -724
  -889
  -1,069
  -1,262
  -1,466
  -1,676
  -1,891
  -2,108
  -2,324
  -2,537
  -2,748
  -2,954
  -3,156
  -3,353
  -3,546
  -3,735
  -3,922
  -4,107
  -4,291
  -4,477
  -4,664
  -4,855
  -5,050
  -5,251
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  123
  139
  205
  288
  391
  517
  666
  836
  1,027
  1,235
  1,458
  1,692
  1,934
  2,182
  2,431
  2,679
  2,925
  3,166
  3,402
  3,633
  3,858
  4,079
  4,295
  4,508
  4,718
  4,928
  5,139
  5,352
  5,568
  5,790
  6,018
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  45
  63
  86
  114
  147
  185
  227
  273
  322
  374
  429
  484
  540
  596
  651
  706
  760
  812
  864
  915
  965
  1,014
  1,064
  1,113
  1,162
  1,212
  1,263
  1,315
  1,369
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  163
  139
  250
  351
  477
  631
  813
  1,021
  1,254
  1,508
  1,780
  2,066
  2,363
  2,666
  2,971
  3,275
  3,576
  3,872
  4,162
  4,445
  4,722
  4,994
  5,260
  5,522
  5,782
  6,041
  6,301
  6,564
  6,831
  7,105
  7,387
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  31
  92
  28
  39
  53
  70
  90
  112
  138
  166
  195
  226
  258
  291
  323
  355
  387
  418
  448
  477
  506
  533
  560
  586
  611
  637
  662
  688
  714
  740
  767
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -54
  -49
  -73
  -102
  -139
  -184
  -236
  -297
  -364
  -438
  -517
  -601
  -687
  -775
  -863
  -951
  -1,038
  -1,124
  -1,208
  -1,290
  -1,370
  -1,448
  -1,525
  -1,600
  -1,675
  -1,750
  -1,824
  -1,900
  -1,977
  -2,055
  -2,136
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  67
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  10.10
  10.61
  11.14
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.05
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.31
  25.52
  26.80
  28.14
  29.55
  31.02
  32.57
  34.20
  35.91
  37.71
  39.59
  41.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  88.7
  79.5
  72.0
  65.7
  60.4
  55.9
  52.1
  48.8
  46.0
  43.5
  41.4
  39.5
  37.8
  36.3
  34.9
  33.7
  32.6
  31.7
  30.7
  29.9
  29.2
  28.5
  27.8
  27.2
  26.6
  26.1
  25.6
  25.1
  24.7

Farmland Partners Inc., a real estate company, owns and seeks to acquire farmland located in agricultural markets in North America. Its farms are used to grow primary crops, such as corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, and cotton. The company’s farms are also used to grow specialty crops, including almond, citrus, blueberries, vegetables, and edible beans. As of December 31, 2016, it owned farms with an aggregate of approximately 142,223 acres in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. Farmland Partners Inc. also provides loans to third-party farmers for working capital requirements and operational farming activities, farming infrastructure projects, and for other farming and agricultural real estate related purposes. The company elected and qualified to be taxed as a real estate investment trust for U.S. federal income tax purposes. Farmland Partners Inc. was founded in 2013 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Farmland Partners (FPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.5
Price to Sales 5
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 121.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 167.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 190.7%
Total Debt to Equity 190.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Total Capital 1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Return On Equity 3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 93.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 95.5%
EBITDA Margin 54.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Operating Margin 51.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 12.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 175%

FPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $14 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Farmland Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Farmland Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.1%, whose default value for FPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Farmland Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Farmland Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 42.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Farmland Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Farmland Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FPI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FPI are equal to 1717.9%.

Life of production assets of 240.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Farmland Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FPI is equal to -171.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $108 million for Farmland Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.42 million for Farmland Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Farmland Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for May 9th   [May-09-17 07:20AM  Zacks]
▶ Farmland Partners reports 1Q loss   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for May 5th   [May-05-17 05:56AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for April 17th   [Apr-17-17 11:37AM  Zacks]
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Stock chart of FPI Financial statements of FPI Annual reports of FPI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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