Intrinsic value of Fiesta Restaurant Group - FRGI

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$24.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$24.60

 
Intrinsic value

$24.21

 
Up/down potential

-2%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FRGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.64
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  712
  726
  743
  762
  783
  807
  833
  862
  892
  925
  961
  999
  1,040
  1,083
  1,129
  1,177
  1,229
  1,283
  1,341
  1,402
  1,467
  1,535
  1,606
  1,682
  1,762
  1,845
  1,934
  2,027
  2,124
  2,227
  2,336
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  661
  676
  693
  712
  733
  756
  782
  809
  838
  870
  892
  928
  967
  1,008
  1,051
  1,097
  1,146
  1,197
  1,252
  1,309
  1,370
  1,434
  1,502
  1,573
  1,647
  1,726
  1,809
  1,897
  1,988
  2,085
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  685
  661
  676
  693
  712
  733
  756
  782
  809
  838
  870
  892
  928
  967
  1,008
  1,051
  1,097
  1,146
  1,197
  1,252
  1,309
  1,370
  1,434
  1,502
  1,573
  1,647
  1,726
  1,809
  1,897
  1,988
  2,085
Operating income, $m
  27
  66
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  107
  112
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  165
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
EBITDA, $m
  64
  103
  106
  108
  112
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  229
  239
  251
  263
  275
  289
  302
  317
  333
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
Earnings before tax, $m
  25
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  142
  149
  155
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
Tax expense, $m
  8
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
Net income, $m
  17
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  442
  447
  457
  469
  482
  496
  512
  530
  549
  569
  591
  614
  639
  666
  694
  724
  756
  789
  825
  862
  902
  944
  988
  1,034
  1,083
  1,135
  1,189
  1,246
  1,307
  1,370
  1,436
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  438
  447
  457
  469
  482
  496
  512
  530
  549
  569
  591
  614
  639
  666
  694
  724
  756
  789
  825
  862
  902
  944
  988
  1,034
  1,083
  1,135
  1,189
  1,246
  1,307
  1,370
  1,436
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.626
  1.624
  1.626
  1.625
  1.624
  1.627
  1.627
  1.626
  1.625
  1.626
  1.626
  1.627
  1.628
  1.626
  1.627
  1.626
  1.626
  1.626
  1.625
  1.626
  1.626
  1.626
  1.626
  1.627
  1.627
  1.626
  1.627
  1.627
  1.625
  1.626
  1.627
Average production assets, $m
  260
  265
  271
  278
  286
  295
  304
  315
  326
  338
  351
  365
  379
  395
  412
  430
  449
  468
  490
  512
  535
  560
  586
  614
  643
  674
  706
  740
  775
  813
  852
Working capital, $m
  -20
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
Total debt, $m
  73
  76
  81
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  118
  126
  135
  144
  155
  165
  177
  189
  202
  215
  230
  245
  261
  278
  296
  315
  335
  356
  378
  401
  425
  451
  478
Total liabilities, $m
  177
  181
  186
  190
  196
  202
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  249
  260
  270
  282
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
  506
  530
  556
  583
Total equity, $m
  264
  265
  271
  278
  286
  295
  304
  315
  326
  338
  351
  365
  380
  396
  412
  430
  449
  469
  490
  512
  536
  561
  587
  614
  644
  674
  706
  740
  776
  814
  853
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  441
  446
  457
  468
  482
  497
  512
  530
  549
  569
  591
  614
  640
  666
  694
  724
  756
  789
  825
  862
  902
  944
  988
  1,034
  1,084
  1,135
  1,189
  1,246
  1,306
  1,370
  1,436
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.277
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  17
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Funds from operations, $m
  88
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  95
  98
  102
  105
  109
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  253
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  81
  95
  86
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  111
  116
  120
  125
  131
  136
  142
  149
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  194
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
New CAPEX, $m
  -85
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -81
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  65
  55
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  69
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  67
  53
  53
  54
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  64
  48
  46
  44
  42
  40
  38
  36
  34
  32
  28
  26
  24
  22
  20
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises fast-casual restaurants. It operates its fast-casual restaurants under the Pollo Tropical and Taco Cabana brand names. The company’s Pollo Tropical restaurants offer various Caribbean inspired food, and Taco Cabana restaurants offer a selection of Mexican food. As of January 3, 2016, it had 155 company-owned Pollo Tropical restaurants, 162 company-owned Taco Cabana restaurants, and 35 franchised Pollo Tropical restaurants in the U.S., Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Trinidad & Tobago, and Venezuela, as well as 6 franchised Taco Cabana restaurants in the U.S. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Addison, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.7
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -164.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 27.7%
Total Debt to Equity 27.7%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Total Capital 5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Return On Equity 6.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.9%
EBITDA Margin 9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Operating Margin 3.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 32%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 0%

FRGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FRGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $712 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fiesta Restaurant Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Fiesta Restaurant Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FRGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FRGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fiesta Restaurant Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fiesta Restaurant Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FRGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FRGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Fiesta Restaurant Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fiesta Restaurant Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FRGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FRGI are equal to 36.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fiesta Restaurant Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FRGI is equal to -3.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $264 million for Fiesta Restaurant Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.202 million for Fiesta Restaurant Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fiesta Restaurant Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Pollo Tropical closing 30 more stores; parent company plans brand relaunch   [Apr-24-17 02:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Is FRGI Too Cheap After Declining?   [Mar-21-17 06:51PM  Investopedia]
▶ Is FRGI Too Cheap After Declining?   [06:51PM  at Investopedia]
▶ 5 Stocks Insiders Are Loading Up On   [Mar-08-17 11:57AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Insider Invests in Fiesta Restaurant Group   [Mar-06-17 12:09PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ 7 Stocks Trending With Monster Volume   [Mar-02-17 07:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Why Fiesta Restaurant Group Inc. Stock Plummeted Today   [Feb-28-17 01:32PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Fiesta Restaurant Group names CEO; suspends talks of sale   [Feb-27-17 06:00PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Fiesta Restaurant Group names CEO; suspends talks of sale   [06:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Sunrun Inc (RUN): Hedge Fund Sentiment Unchanged   [Dec-11-16 09:43AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Fiesta Restaurant Group Inc (FRGI) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-07-16 02:13AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Report: Fiesta Restaurant Group looking for a buyer   [Oct-17-16 02:25PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Heres Why These Five Stocks Are in the Spotlight   [Oct-15-16 12:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Former Taco Cabana exec named CEO of Colorado burger chain   [Sep-29-16 12:25PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Turnaround in sight at Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI)   [Aug-31-16 11:37AM  at Investopedia]
Stock chart of FRGI Financial statements of FRGI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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