Intrinsic value of Papa Murphy's Holdings - FRSH

Previous Close

$5.85

  Intrinsic Value

$6.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+18%

Previous close

$5.85

 
Intrinsic value

$6.91

 
Up/down potential

+18%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of FRSH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.83
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
  253
  267
  280
  295
  310
  326
  343
  360
  379
  398
  418
  439
  462
  485
  509
  535
  562
  590
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  163
  172
  180
  189
  188
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  281
  296
  311
  327
  343
  361
  379
  398
  418
  439
  461
  485
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  117
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  163
  172
  180
  189
  188
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  281
  296
  311
  327
  343
  361
  379
  398
  418
  439
  461
  485
Operating income, $m
  10
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
EBITDA, $m
  22
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  132
  138
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
Tax expense, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Net income, $m
  3
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  274
  288
  304
  321
  339
  358
  378
  398
  420
  442
  465
  490
  516
  543
  571
  601
  632
  664
  698
  734
  771
  811
  852
  895
  941
  988
  1,038
  1,091
  1,146
  1,203
  1,264
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  272
  288
  304
  321
  339
  358
  378
  398
  420
  442
  465
  490
  516
  543
  571
  601
  632
  664
  698
  734
  771
  811
  852
  895
  941
  988
  1,038
  1,091
  1,146
  1,203
  1,264
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.467
  0.465
  0.467
  0.467
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.467
  0.467
  0.466
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.466
  0.468
  0.466
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.468
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
Average production assets, $m
  151
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  245
  258
  271
  285
  300
  316
  332
  349
  367
  386
  406
  427
  449
  471
  495
  521
  547
  575
  604
  634
  666
  700
Working capital, $m
  -10
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
Total debt, $m
  109
  117
  127
  138
  149
  161
  173
  186
  199
  213
  228
  243
  259
  276
  294
  312
  332
  352
  373
  396
  419
  444
  469
  497
  525
  555
  586
  619
  653
  689
  727
Total liabilities, $m
  172
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  262
  276
  291
  306
  322
  339
  357
  375
  395
  415
  436
  459
  482
  507
  532
  560
  588
  618
  649
  682
  716
  752
  790
Total equity, $m
  102
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  142
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  193
  204
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
  275
  289
  304
  319
  336
  353
  371
  389
  409
  430
  451
  474
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  274
  288
  304
  322
  339
  358
  378
  398
  419
  442
  466
  490
  515
  543
  571
  600
  632
  664
  698
  734
  771
  811
  851
  896
  941
  989
  1,038
  1,091
  1,146
  1,203
  1,264
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.069
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.370
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.368
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
Funds from operations, $m
  16
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  37
  39
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  17
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  89
  93
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -19
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -65
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -5
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  13
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Papa Murphy's Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company, together with its subsidiaries, is a franchisor and operator of the Take 'N' Bake pizza chain in the United States. The Company franchises the right to operate Take 'N' Bake pizza franchises and operates Take 'N' Bake pizza stores owned by the Company. The Company operates through three segments: Domestic Company Stores, Domestic Franchise and International. Its Domestic Franchise segment consists of its domestic franchised stores, which represent its system-wide stores and derives its revenues from franchise and development fees and the collection of franchise royalties. The Domestic Company Stores segment consists of its Company-owned stores in the United States and derives its revenues from retail sales of pizza and side items to the general public. Its International segment consists of its stores outside of the United States, all of which are franchised and derives its revenues from franchise and development fees.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Papa Murphy's Holdings (FRSH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33.1
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -99.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 80%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 43.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 99%
Total Debt to Equity 106.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Equity 3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.9%
EBITDA Margin 13.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Operating Margin 7.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

FRSH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FRSH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $127 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Papa Murphy's Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Papa Murphy's Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FRSH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for FRSH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Papa Murphy's Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Papa Murphy's Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FRSH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FRSH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Papa Murphy's Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Papa Murphy's Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FRSH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FRSH are equal to 118.5%.

Life of production assets of 21.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Papa Murphy's Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FRSH is equal to -3.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $102 million for Papa Murphy's Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.949 million for Papa Murphy's Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Papa Murphy's Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Papa Murphy's dives into the delivery game   [Dec-06-17 07:54PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ A Look At The Fair Value Of Papa Murphys Holdings Inc (FRSH)   [Nov-10-17 07:05PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Papa Murphy's reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 05:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Papa Murphy's reports 2Q loss   [Aug-09-17 10:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Papa Murphy's hires former Dunkin' executive as new CEO   [Jun-14-17 10:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Papa Murphys Announces Grubhub as National Delivery Partner   [Jun-08-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Papa Murphy's to close 16 company-owned stores   [Jun-06-17 10:40AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [Jun-05-17 11:47AM  Briefing.com]
▶ 5 Restaurant Stocks Beating the Odds Right Now   [May-19-17 02:34PM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for May 15th   [May-15-17 11:13AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for May 12th   [May-12-17 10:06AM  Zacks]
▶ Papa Murphy's reports 1Q loss   [May-10-17 05:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for May 8th   [May-08-17 10:12AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for May 4th   [May-04-17 06:14AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for May 2nd   [May-02-17 11:32AM  Zacks]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [May-01-17 02:01PM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for April 28th   [Apr-28-17 10:42AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for April 6th   [Apr-06-17 11:59AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for April 5th   [Apr-05-17 10:37AM  Zacks]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [Apr-03-17 04:50PM  Zacks]
▶ Papa Murphy's is new name on Sac Republic's Cal Expo stadium   [Mar-09-17 04:10PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of FRSH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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