Intrinsic value of Federal Realty Investment Trust - FRT

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$133.16

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$133.16

 
Intrinsic value

$7.52

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FRT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FRT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.80
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.09
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  802
  848
  895
  945
  997
  1,052
  1,109
  1,168
  1,231
  1,296
  1,364
  1,436
  1,511
  1,589
  1,671
  1,758
  1,848
  1,943
  2,042
  2,147
  2,256
  2,371
  2,491
  2,617
  2,750
  2,889
  3,035
  3,188
  3,349
  3,517
  3,694
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  263
  278
  293
  309
  326
  344
  362
  382
  402
  423
  445
  468
  493
  518
  545
  573
  602
  633
  665
  699
  735
  772
  811
  852
  896
  941
  988
  1,038
  1,090
  1,145
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  244
  250
  256
  263
  269
  276
  283
  290
  297
  305
  312
  320
  328
  336
  345
  353
  362
  371
  380
  390
  400
  410
  420
  430
  441
  452
  464
  475
  487
  499
Total operating expenses, $m
  481
  507
  528
  549
  572
  595
  620
  645
  672
  699
  728
  757
  788
  821
  854
  890
  926
  964
  1,004
  1,045
  1,089
  1,135
  1,182
  1,231
  1,282
  1,337
  1,393
  1,452
  1,513
  1,577
  1,644
Operating income, $m
  321
  341
  368
  396
  425
  456
  489
  523
  559
  597
  637
  678
  722
  768
  817
  868
  922
  979
  1,038
  1,101
  1,167
  1,236
  1,309
  1,386
  1,467
  1,552
  1,642
  1,736
  1,835
  1,940
  2,050
EBITDA, $m
  515
  546
  585
  625
  667
  711
  758
  806
  857
  911
  967
  1,026
  1,088
  1,154
  1,222
  1,294
  1,370
  1,449
  1,533
  1,621
  1,713
  1,811
  1,913
  2,020
  2,133
  2,252
  2,377
  2,509
  2,647
  2,792
  2,945
Interest expense (income), $m
  90
  98
  104
  112
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  192
  204
  215
  228
  241
  254
  269
  283
  299
  315
  333
  351
  370
  389
  410
  432
  455
  479
  504
Earnings before tax, $m
  226
  243
  263
  284
  306
  330
  354
  380
  407
  435
  465
  497
  530
  565
  602
  640
  681
  724
  770
  817
  868
  921
  977
  1,035
  1,097
  1,163
  1,231
  1,304
  1,380
  1,461
  1,545
Tax expense, $m
  0
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  162
  173
  184
  196
  208
  221
  234
  249
  264
  280
  296
  314
  332
  352
  373
  394
  417
Net income, $m
  250
  177
  192
  208
  224
  241
  258
  277
  297
  318
  340
  363
  387
  412
  439
  467
  497
  529
  562
  597
  633
  672
  713
  756
  801
  849
  899
  952
  1,008
  1,066
  1,128

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,423
  5,689
  6,010
  6,344
  6,694
  7,059
  7,441
  7,841
  8,259
  8,697
  9,156
  9,636
  10,139
  10,666
  11,218
  11,797
  12,404
  13,040
  13,707
  14,407
  15,141
  15,911
  16,719
  17,566
  18,455
  19,389
  20,368
  21,395
  22,474
  23,606
  24,794
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,400
  5,689
  6,010
  6,344
  6,694
  7,059
  7,441
  7,841
  8,259
  8,697
  9,156
  9,636
  10,139
  10,666
  11,218
  11,797
  12,404
  13,040
  13,707
  14,407
  15,141
  15,911
  16,719
  17,566
  18,455
  19,389
  20,368
  21,395
  22,474
  23,606
  24,794
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
Average production assets, $m
  4,743
  5,013
  5,296
  5,590
  5,898
  6,221
  6,557
  6,909
  7,278
  7,664
  8,068
  8,491
  8,934
  9,399
  9,885
  10,395
  10,930
  11,491
  12,079
  12,695
  13,342
  14,021
  14,732
  15,479
  16,263
  17,085
  17,948
  18,853
  19,804
  20,801
  21,848
Working capital, $m
  0
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
Total debt, $m
  2,798
  2,982
  3,186
  3,400
  3,623
  3,856
  4,100
  4,355
  4,622
  4,901
  5,193
  5,500
  5,821
  6,157
  6,509
  6,878
  7,266
  7,672
  8,097
  8,544
  9,012
  9,503
  10,019
  10,559
  11,127
  11,722
  12,347
  13,002
  13,690
  14,412
  15,170
Total liabilities, $m
  3,447
  3,630
  3,834
  4,048
  4,271
  4,504
  4,748
  5,003
  5,270
  5,549
  5,841
  6,148
  6,469
  6,805
  7,157
  7,526
  7,914
  8,320
  8,745
  9,192
  9,660
  10,151
  10,667
  11,207
  11,775
  12,370
  12,995
  13,650
  14,338
  15,060
  15,818
Total equity, $m
  1,977
  2,060
  2,175
  2,297
  2,423
  2,555
  2,694
  2,838
  2,990
  3,148
  3,314
  3,488
  3,670
  3,861
  4,061
  4,271
  4,490
  4,721
  4,962
  5,215
  5,481
  5,760
  6,052
  6,359
  6,681
  7,019
  7,373
  7,745
  8,136
  8,545
  8,975
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,424
  5,690
  6,009
  6,345
  6,694
  7,059
  7,442
  7,841
  8,260
  8,697
  9,155
  9,636
  10,139
  10,666
  11,218
  11,797
  12,404
  13,041
  13,707
  14,407
  15,141
  15,911
  16,719
  17,566
  18,456
  19,389
  20,368
  21,395
  22,474
  23,605
  24,793
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.415
  1.450
  1.460
  1.480
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.550
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.620
  1.630
  1.630
  1.640
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.660
  1.670
  1.670
  1.670
  1.680
  1.680
  1.690
  1.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  250
  177
  192
  208
  224
  241
  258
  277
  297
  318
  340
  363
  387
  412
  439
  467
  497
  529
  562
  597
  633
  672
  713
  756
  801
  849
  899
  952
  1,008
  1,066
  1,128
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  194
  205
  217
  229
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  314
  331
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
  448
  471
  495
  520
  547
  575
  604
  634
  667
  700
  736
  773
  812
  852
  895
Funds from operations, $m
  418
  383
  409
  437
  465
  496
  527
  560
  595
  632
  670
  711
  753
  797
  844
  893
  945
  1,000
  1,057
  1,117
  1,180
  1,247
  1,317
  1,390
  1,468
  1,549
  1,635
  1,725
  1,819
  1,919
  2,024
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  419
  637
  411
  438
  467
  497
  529
  562
  597
  634
  672
  713
  755
  800
  847
  896
  948
  1,002
  1,060
  1,120
  1,183
  1,250
  1,320
  1,394
  1,471
  1,553
  1,639
  1,729
  1,824
  1,924
  2,029
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -283
  -298
  -314
  -331
  -348
  -366
  -385
  -405
  -426
  -448
  -471
  -495
  -520
  -547
  -575
  -604
  -634
  -667
  -700
  -736
  -773
  -812
  -852
New CAPEX, $m
  -580
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -337
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -404
  -423
  -443
  -464
  -487
  -510
  -535
  -561
  -588
  -617
  -647
  -678
  -712
  -747
  -784
  -822
  -863
  -906
  -950
  -997
  -1,047
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -590
  -464
  -487
  -512
  -537
  -564
  -592
  -621
  -652
  -684
  -718
  -754
  -791
  -830
  -872
  -915
  -961
  -1,009
  -1,059
  -1,112
  -1,167
  -1,225
  -1,287
  -1,351
  -1,418
  -1,489
  -1,563
  -1,642
  -1,723
  -1,809
  -1,899
Free cash flow, $m
  -171
  172
  -77
  -74
  -70
  -67
  -63
  -59
  -55
  -50
  -46
  -41
  -36
  -31
  -25
  -19
  -13
  -6
  1
  8
  16
  25
  34
  43
  53
  64
  76
  88
  101
  115
  129
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  135
  184
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406
  426
  446
  468
  491
  515
  541
  567
  595
  625
  656
  688
  722
  758
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  329
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  441
  184
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406
  426
  446
  468
  491
  515
  541
  567
  595
  625
  656
  688
  722
  758
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  270
  356
  127
  140
  153
  167
  181
  196
  212
  229
  247
  265
  285
  305
  327
  350
  374
  400
  426
  455
  485
  516
  549
  584
  621
  660
  700
  744
  789
  837
  887
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -313
  -106
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -242
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -354
  -372
  -390
  -410
  -430
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  274
  11
  19
  26
  34
  43
  51
  61
  70
  81
  91
  103
  115
  127
  141
  155
  169
  185
  201
  219
  237
  257
  277
  299
  322
  346
  372
  399
  427
  457
Discount rate, %
 
  9.10
  9.56
  10.03
  10.53
  11.06
  11.61
  12.19
  12.80
  13.44
  14.12
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.16
  18.02
  18.92
  19.86
  20.86
  21.90
  23.00
  24.15
  25.35
  26.62
  27.95
  29.35
  30.82
  32.36
  33.97
  35.67
  37.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  251
  10
  14
  18
  20
  22
  23
  23
  23
  22
  20
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Federal Realty Investment Trust operates as a real estate investment trust, which engages in the ownership, management, development, and redevelopment of retail and mixed-use properties. As of June 30, 2005, it owned or had a majority interest in 103 community and neighborhood shopping centers, and retail mixed-use properties (excluding joint venture properties) comprising approximately 17.4 million square feet located primarily in strategic metropolitan markets in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and California. In addition, it had 30% interest in approximately 0.5 million square feet of retail space through its joint venture with an affiliate of Clarion Lion Properties Fund, and one apartment complex in Maryland. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT. As a REIT, it is not subject to federal income tax on taxable income that it distributes to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.4
Price to Sales 12
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -59.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 32.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 141.5%
Total Debt to Equity 141.5%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Equity 13.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.7%
EBITDA Margin 63.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.1%
Operating Margin 40%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 28.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.1%
Net Profit Margin 31.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 107.2%

FRT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FRT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $802 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Federal Realty Investment Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Federal Realty Investment Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FRT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.1%, whose default value for FRT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Federal Realty Investment Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Federal Realty Investment Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FRT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 31%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $238 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FRT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Federal Realty Investment Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Federal Realty Investment Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FRT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FRT are equal to 591.4%.

Life of production assets of 24.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Federal Realty Investment Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FRT is equal to -2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1977 million for Federal Realty Investment Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 72.285 million for Federal Realty Investment Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Federal Realty Investment Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.6 billion.


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Stock chart of FRT Financial statements of FRT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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