Intrinsic value of Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A - FSAM

Previous Close

$4.00

  Intrinsic Value

$21.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+431%

Previous close

$4.00

 
Intrinsic value

$21.24

 
Up/down potential

+431%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as FSAM.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FSAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -13.54
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  150
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  248
  260
  272
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  84
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
Operating income, $m
  -2
  36
  37
  37
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
EBITDA, $m
  2
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  3
  0
  1
  1
  2
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  19
  21
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
Earnings before tax, $m
  7
  32
  37
  37
  37
  37
  37
  38
  38
  38
  38
  38
  39
  39
  39
  39
  40
  40
  40
  40
  41
  41
  41
  42
  42
  42
  43
  43
  44
  44
  45
Tax expense, $m
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
Net income, $m
  -2
  24
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  32
  33

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  179
  175
  179
  184
  189
  195
  201
  208
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  297
  310
  324
  338
  354
  370
  388
  406
  425
  445
  467
  489
  513
  538
  564
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  172
  175
  179
  184
  189
  195
  201
  208
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  297
  310
  324
  338
  354
  370
  388
  406
  425
  445
  467
  489
  513
  538
  564
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.483
  0.486
  0.486
  0.484
  0.481
  0.482
  0.483
  0.481
  0.484
  0.484
  0.483
  0.481
  0.482
  0.483
  0.485
  0.482
  0.481
  0.484
  0.481
  0.482
  0.483
  0.484
  0.482
  0.483
  0.482
  0.483
  0.482
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.482
Average production assets, $m
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Working capital, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Total debt, $m
  15
  -1
  2
  7
  11
  16
  22
  28
  35
  42
  50
  58
  67
  76
  86
  97
  108
  120
  132
  146
  160
  174
  190
  206
  224
  242
  261
  281
  302
  325
  348
Total liabilities, $m
  174
  158
  161
  166
  170
  175
  181
  187
  194
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  291
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  484
  507
Total equity, $m
  5
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  179
  176
  179
  184
  189
  194
  201
  208
  216
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  297
  310
  323
  339
  354
  370
  388
  406
  426
  446
  467
  489
  512
  538
  563
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.000
  -0.070
  0.130
  0.350
  0.590
  0.840
  1.090
  1.350
  1.620
  1.880
  2.140
  2.410
  2.660
  2.920
  3.160
  3.400
  3.640
  3.870
  4.090
  4.300
  4.510
  4.710
  4.900
  5.080
  5.260
  5.430
  5.590
  5.750
  5.900
  6.040
  6.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.012
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2
  24
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  32
  33
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  25
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  32
  33
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  36
  37
  37
  38
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  25
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  32
  33
  33
  34
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -39
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  -23
  24
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  32
  33
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  35
  -16
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  35
  -16
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  8
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -20
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  30
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  54
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  28
  27
  26
  25
  24
  22
  21
  20
  18
  17
  15
  14
  13
  11
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Fifth Street Asset Management Inc. is an alternative asset manager. The Company provides asset management services to its investment funds (the Fifth Street Funds or the funds), which consist of Fifth Street Finance Corp. (FSC) and Fifth Street Senior Floating Rate Corp. (FSFR), both publicly-traded business development companies (together, the BDCs). Its segment provides asset management services to the Fifth Street Funds. The Company conducts all of its operations through its subsidiaries, Fifth Street Management LLC (FSM), Fifth Street CLO Management LLC (CLO Management) and FSCO GP LLC (FSCO GP). The funds, managed by the Company, provide financing solutions to small and mid-sized companies across their capital structures, mainly in connection with investments by private equity sponsors. It provides credit solutions across the capital structure, including one-stop financing, unitranche debt, senior secured debt, mezzanine debt, equity co-investments and venture debt financing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A (FSAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -98.9
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 39.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -13.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 300%
Total Debt to Equity 300%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Total Capital -8.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Equity -50%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.3%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 18.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Operating Margin -1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27%
Net Profit Margin -2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Effective Tax Rate 128.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.1%
Payout Ratio -1100%

FSAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FSAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $83 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FSAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FSAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FSAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 57.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FSAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 21.6% for Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FSAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FSAM are equal to 9.6%.

Life of production assets of 2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FSAM is equal to -8.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5 million for Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.65 million for Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fifth Street Asset Management Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Deal Close Announcements: Oct. 16-20   [Oct-20-17 05:49PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Fifth Street Finance reports 3Q loss   [Aug-09-17 09:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ What's Going on in BDC Land?   [Aug-07-17 03:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Medley Capital: Don't Fall for Insider Buying   [Aug-02-17 08:15AM  Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Oaktree Buys Out Fifth Street Lending Entities   [12:17PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] NewStar to Buy Fifth Street's Midmarket CLO Business   [Jul-07-17 12:21PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Oaktree Nears Buyout of Fifth Street Asset Management   [12:46PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 3 High-Yield Stocks Under Pressure   [08:20AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Fifth Street Finance misses 2Q profit forecasts   [06:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Reasons Fifth Street's Deal Talk Smells Fishy   [Apr-26-17 05:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Fifth Street Asset Management to Explore Sale   [12:39AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Fifth Street Asset Management to Explore Sale   [Apr-19-17 07:11PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ A Year Later, Same Story for 2 BDCs: PSEC Up, FSC Down   [Feb-10-17 01:54PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Why Fifth Street Finance Corp. Stock Dropped Today   [Feb-09-17 11:56AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ BDCs Did Worse and Tried to Be Responsible in 2016   [Jan-12-17 12:54PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Fifth Street Finance Corp. Stock Is Down 10% Today   [Nov-30-16 03:46PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of FSAM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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