Intrinsic value of Fusion Telecommunications International - FSNN

Previous Close

$1.26

  Intrinsic Value

$0.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

  Value-price divergence*

+1335%

Previous close

$1.26

 
Intrinsic value

$0.14

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+1335%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FSNN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.61
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.62
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
Revenue, $m
  122
  133
  145
  157
  169
  182
  196
  210
  224
  240
  255
  272
  289
  307
  325
  345
  365
  386
  408
  430
  454
  479
  505
  533
  561
  591
  623
  655
  690
  726
  763
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  113
  123
  132
  143
  153
  165
  176
  188
  201
  214
  224
  238
  252
  267
  283
  300
  317
  335
  354
  374
  394
  416
  438
  462
  486
  512
  539
  567
  597
  628
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
Total operating expenses, $m
  130
  141
  151
  161
  173
  184
  196
  208
  221
  235
  249
  259
  274
  289
  305
  322
  340
  358
  377
  397
  418
  439
  462
  486
  511
  536
  563
  592
  621
  652
  685
Operating income, $m
  -8
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
EBITDA, $m
  5
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
Earnings before tax, $m
  -14
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
Net income, $m
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  132
  144
  157
  170
  183
  197
  212
  227
  243
  259
  276
  294
  313
  332
  352
  373
  395
  417
  441
  466
  492
  519
  547
  577
  608
  640
  674
  709
  746
  785
  826
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  125
  144
  157
  170
  183
  197
  212
  227
  243
  259
  276
  294
  313
  332
  352
  373
  395
  417
  441
  466
  492
  519
  547
  577
  608
  640
  674
  709
  746
  785
  826
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.976
  0.924
  0.924
  0.924
  0.923
  0.924
  0.925
  0.925
  0.922
  0.927
  0.924
  0.925
  0.923
  0.925
  0.923
  0.925
  0.924
  0.926
  0.925
  0.923
  0.923
  0.923
  0.923
  0.924
  0.923
  0.923
  0.924
  0.924
  0.925
  0.925
  0.924
Average production assets, $m
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  88
  95
  101
  108
  115
  123
  130
  138
  147
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  344
Working capital, $m
  -6
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
Total debt, $m
  101
  108
  119
  131
  143
  156
  169
  182
  197
  211
  227
  243
  259
  277
  295
  314
  333
  354
  375
  397
  421
  445
  470
  497
  525
  554
  584
  616
  650
  685
  722
Total liabilities, $m
  123
  130
  141
  153
  165
  178
  191
  204
  219
  233
  249
  265
  281
  299
  317
  336
  355
  376
  397
  419
  443
  467
  492
  519
  547
  576
  606
  638
  672
  707
  744
Total equity, $m
  9
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  132
  144
  157
  170
  183
  198
  212
  227
  243
  259
  277
  294
  312
  332
  352
  373
  394
  418
  441
  466
  492
  519
  547
  577
  608
  640
  673
  709
  747
  786
  827
Debt-to-equity ratio
  11.222
  7.470
  7.590
  7.700
  7.800
  7.880
  7.960
  8.030
  8.090
  8.150
  8.200
  8.250
  8.300
  8.340
  8.370
  8.410
  8.440
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
  8.580
  8.600
  8.620
  8.640
  8.660
  8.670
  8.690
  8.710
  8.720
  8.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.040
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  -2
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  75
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  -1
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  56
  59
  64
  68
  72
  77
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -27
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
Free cash flow, $m
  -27
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  26
  7
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  17
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  3
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  27
  24
  22
  22
  21
  21
  20
  20
  19
  18
  17
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -17
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
Discount rate, %
 
  13.90
  14.60
  15.32
  16.09
  16.90
  17.74
  18.63
  19.56
  20.54
  21.56
  22.64
  23.77
  24.96
  26.21
  27.52
  28.90
  30.34
  31.86
  33.45
  35.12
  36.88
  38.72
  40.66
  42.69
  44.83
  47.07
  49.42
  51.90
  54.49
  57.21
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -4
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  57.0
  43.1
  34.0
  27.7
  23.4
  20.4
  18.4
  16.9
  16.0
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6
  15.6

Fusion Telecommunications International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud communications, cloud connectivity, cloud infrastructure, cloud computing, and managed cloud-based solutions to small, medium, and large businesses worldwide. It also offers voice services to communications carriers. The company operates in two segments, Business Services and Carrier Services. The Business Services segment offers cloud voice and unified communications, which enhance communication and collaboration on virtually any device and anywhere; cloud connectivity services that connect customers to the cloud with managed network solutions; and cloud computing and infrastructure as service solutions that are designed to provide enterprise customers with a platform on which additional cloud services can be built, as well as SIP trunking solution, which allows a customer to retain and use its existing telephone system. This segment also provides software as a service based solutions, including security and business continuity, as well as offers private and hybrid cloud, storage, backup and recovery, and secure file sharing services. The Carrier Services segment offers voice traffic termination through voice over IP (VoIP) technology. This segment interconnects to approximately 369 carrier customers and vendors; and sells voice services to other communications service providers, including the U.S.-based carriers sending voice traffic to international destinations, and foreign carriers sending VoIP traffic to the U.S. and internationally. The company markets and sells its services primarily through distribution partners, direct sales personnel, and sales representatives. It has a strategic partnership with Unisys. Fusion Telecommunications International, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fusion Telecommunications International (FSNN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 38%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1077.8%
Total Debt to Equity 1122.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -11%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Return On Total Capital -13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Return On Equity -113%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.7%
EBITDA Margin -0.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Operating Margin -6.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.1%
Net Profit Margin -10.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.3%
Effective Tax Rate 7.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Payout Ratio 0%

FSNN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FSNN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $122 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fusion Telecommunications International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fusion Telecommunications International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FSNN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.9%, whose default value for FSNN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fusion Telecommunications International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fusion Telecommunications International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FSNN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $27 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FSNN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Fusion Telecommunications International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fusion Telecommunications International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FSNN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FSNN are equal to 45.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fusion Telecommunications International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FSNN is equal to -7.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $9 million for Fusion Telecommunications International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.447 million for Fusion Telecommunications International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fusion Telecommunications International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Fusion Reports Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-14-17 04:01PM  Marketwired]
▶ Fusion Added to the Russell Microcap Index   [Jun-26-17 08:45AM  Marketwired]
▶ Fusion Reports First Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [May-10-17 04:01PM  Marketwired]
▶ Fusion Acquires Cloud Services Provider Apptix   [Nov-15-16 09:04AM  Marketwired]
▶ Fusion Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [08:58AM  Marketwired]
▶ State Bridge Authority Selects the Fusion Cloud   [Oct-17-16 08:45AM  Marketwired]
▶ Fusion Partners With Telarus to Provide Cloud Services   [Jun-29-16 08:45AM  Marketwired]
▶ Fusion Reports First Quarter 2016 Results   [May-11-16 09:29AM  Marketwired]
▶ Fusion Wins $250,000 Contact Center Agreement   [Apr-20-16 08:45AM  Marketwired]
▶ Fusion Launches Enterprise Cloud Contact Center Solution   [Apr-18-16 08:45AM  Marketwired]
▶ Fusion Completes Acquisition of TFB   [Apr-04-16 08:45AM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of FSNN Financial statements of FSNN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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