Intrinsic value of L.B. Foster - FSTR

Previous Close

$26.10

  Intrinsic Value

$2.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$26.10

 
Intrinsic value

$2.76

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FSTR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -22.56
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  484
  516
  549
  584
  620
  657
  696
  737
  780
  824
  870
  919
  969
  1,022
  1,077
  1,135
  1,195
  1,259
  1,325
  1,395
  1,467
  1,543
  1,623
  1,707
  1,795
  1,887
  1,983
  2,085
  2,191
  2,302
  2,419
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  161
  171
  182
  193
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  283
  299
  315
  332
  350
  368
  388
  408
  430
  452
  476
  500
  526
  553
  581
  611
  642
  675
  709
  745
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  504
  517
  530
  543
  557
  571
  585
  599
  614
  630
  646
  662
  678
  695
  713
  730
  749
  767
  787
  806
  826
  847
  868
  890
  912
  935
  958
  982
  1,007
  1,032
Total operating expenses, $m
  631
  665
  688
  712
  736
  761
  787
  814
  841
  870
  900
  929
  961
  993
  1,027
  1,063
  1,098
  1,137
  1,175
  1,217
  1,258
  1,302
  1,347
  1,394
  1,443
  1,493
  1,546
  1,600
  1,657
  1,716
  1,777
Operating income, $m
  -147
  -149
  -139
  -128
  -116
  -104
  -91
  -77
  -62
  -46
  -30
  -10
  9
  29
  50
  73
  97
  122
  150
  178
  209
  242
  276
  313
  352
  393
  437
  484
  534
  586
  642
EBITDA, $m
  -123
  -127
  -115
  -103
  -89
  -76
  -61
  -45
  -29
  -11
  7
  27
  48
  70
  93
  118
  145
  173
  203
  234
  268
  303
  341
  381
  424
  469
  517
  567
  621
  678
  739
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
Earnings before tax, $m
  -147
  -154
  -145
  -134
  -123
  -112
  -99
  -86
  -72
  -57
  -41
  -22
  -4
  15
  35
  57
  80
  104
  130
  158
  187
  219
  252
  287
  325
  364
  407
  452
  499
  550
  604
Tax expense, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  4
  9
  15
  22
  28
  35
  43
  51
  59
  68
  78
  88
  98
  110
  122
  135
  148
  163
Net income, $m
  -142
  -154
  -145
  -134
  -123
  -112
  -99
  -86
  -72
  -57
  -41
  -22
  -4
  11
  26
  41
  58
  76
  95
  115
  137
  160
  184
  210
  237
  266
  297
  330
  365
  401
  441

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  393
  387
  412
  438
  465
  493
  522
  553
  585
  618
  653
  689
  727
  767
  808
  851
  897
  944
  994
  1,046
  1,101
  1,158
  1,218
  1,281
  1,346
  1,416
  1,488
  1,564
  1,643
  1,727
  1,815
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  363
  387
  412
  438
  465
  493
  522
  553
  585
  618
  653
  689
  727
  767
  808
  851
  897
  944
  994
  1,046
  1,101
  1,158
  1,218
  1,281
  1,346
  1,416
  1,488
  1,564
  1,643
  1,727
  1,815
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.332
  1.334
  1.333
  1.332
  1.333
  1.334
  1.332
  1.334
  1.333
  1.334
  1.332
  1.332
  1.333
  1.333
  1.334
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.334
  1.333
  1.333
Average production assets, $m
  215
  229
  244
  259
  275
  292
  309
  327
  346
  366
  386
  408
  430
  454
  478
  504
  531
  559
  588
  619
  651
  685
  721
  758
  797
  838
  881
  926
  973
  1,022
  1,074
Working capital, $m
  118
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  206
  218
  229
  241
  254
  268
  282
  296
  312
  328
  345
  363
  381
  401
  421
  443
  465
  489
Total debt, $m
  160
  167
  184
  202
  220
  240
  260
  281
  303
  326
  350
  375
  401
  428
  457
  487
  518
  551
  585
  621
  658
  698
  739
  782
  828
  875
  925
  977
  1,032
  1,090
  1,150
Total liabilities, $m
  260
  267
  284
  302
  320
  340
  360
  381
  403
  426
  450
  475
  501
  528
  557
  587
  618
  651
  685
  721
  758
  798
  839
  882
  928
  975
  1,025
  1,077
  1,132
  1,190
  1,250
Total equity, $m
  133
  120
  128
  136
  145
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  309
  325
  342
  360
  379
  398
  419
  440
  463
  486
  511
  537
  564
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  393
  387
  412
  438
  465
  493
  522
  553
  585
  618
  653
  689
  727
  766
  808
  852
  897
  945
  994
  1,046
  1,100
  1,158
  1,218
  1,280
  1,347
  1,415
  1,488
  1,563
  1,643
  1,727
  1,814
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.203
  1.380
  1.430
  1.480
  1.520
  1.560
  1.600
  1.630
  1.670
  1.700
  1.720
  1.750
  1.770
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.920
  1.940
  1.950
  1.960
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.020
  2.030
  2.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.284
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -142
  -154
  -145
  -134
  -123
  -112
  -99
  -86
  -72
  -57
  -41
  -22
  -4
  11
  26
  41
  58
  76
  95
  115
  137
  160
  184
  210
  237
  266
  297
  330
  365
  401
  441
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
Funds from operations, $m
  12
  -132
  -121
  -109
  -97
  -83
  -69
  -54
  -39
  -22
  -4
  15
  34
  52
  69
  87
  106
  126
  148
  171
  195
  221
  249
  278
  309
  342
  376
  413
  452
  494
  537
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  18
  -138
  -128
  -116
  -104
  -91
  -77
  -63
  -47
  -31
  -14
  5
  24
  41
  58
  75
  94
  114
  135
  157
  181
  206
  233
  261
  291
  323
  357
  393
  431
  471
  514
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -33
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  -172
  -163
  -153
  -143
  -132
  -121
  -109
  -96
  -82
  -67
  -52
  -35
  -21
  -8
  6
  22
  38
  55
  73
  93
  113
  135
  159
  184
  210
  238
  268
  300
  334
  370
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -9
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  162
  152
  142
  132
  120
  108
  95
  82
  67
  52
  34
  16
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -12
  179
  169
  160
  151
  139
  128
  116
  104
  90
  76
  59
  42
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  7
  7
  8
  21
  36
  53
  70
  89
  109
  130
  153
  177
  202
  229
  258
  288
  321
  355
  392
  430
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  150
  -162
  -152
  -142
  -132
  -120
  -108
  -95
  -82
  -67
  -52
  -34
  -16
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -135
  -146
  -135
  -125
  -113
  -101
  -88
  -74
  -59
  -43
  -27
  -9
  -5
  8
  23
  39
  56
  74
  93
  113
  135
  158
  183
  209
  236
  266
  297
  330
  366
  403
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -125
  -125
  -106
  -88
  -72
  -57
  -44
  -32
  -22
  -14
  -7
  -2
  -1
  1
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  58.6
  36.1
  23.3
  15.8
  11.2
  8.3
  6.5
  5.2
  4.4
  3.9
  3.6
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5
  3.5

L.B. Foster Company is a manufacturer, fabricator and distributor of products and services for the rail, construction, energy and utility markets. The Company's segments include Rail Products and Services, Construction Products, and Tubular and Energy Services. Its Rail Products segment provides a range of new and used rail, trackwork and accessories to railroads, mines and industry. The Rail segment designs and produces concrete railroad ties, insulated rail joints, power rail, track fasteners, coverboards and special accessories for mass transit and other rail systems. The Construction Products segment sells and rents steel sheet piling, H-bearing pile and other piling products for foundation and earth retention requirements. The Tubular and Energy Services segment supplies pipe coatings for natural gas pipelines and utilities, blending, injection and metering equipment for the oil and gas market, and produces threaded pipe products for industrial water well and irrigation markets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  L.B. Foster (FSTR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.9
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -22.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -46.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 112.8%
Total Debt to Equity 120.3%
Interest Coverage -28
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -28.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.2%
Return On Total Capital -38.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.8%
Return On Equity -68.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.8%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
EBITDA Margin -24.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Operating Margin -30.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -30.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.7%
Net Profit Margin -29.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.7%
Effective Tax Rate 3.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Payout Ratio -0.7%

FSTR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FSTR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $484 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by L.B. Foster. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of L.B. Foster. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FSTR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for FSTR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of L.B. Foster, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of L.B. Foster.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FSTR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 31.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $492 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FSTR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for L.B. Foster.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for L.B. Foster. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FSTR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FSTR are equal to 44.4%.

Life of production assets of 11.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in L.B. Foster operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FSTR is equal to 20.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $133 million for L.B. Foster - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.343 million for L.B. Foster is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of L.B. Foster at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to L.B. Foster Co. : October 12, 2017   [Oct-12-17 10:30AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to L.B. Foster Co. : August 25, 2017   [Aug-25-17 04:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ L.B. FosterĀ® Announces New CFO   [Aug-24-17 11:03AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ L.B. Foster posts 2Q profit   [Aug-05-17 01:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ L.B. Foster posts 2Q profit   [05:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ L.B. Foster Reports Second Quarter Operating Results   [Aug-03-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to L.B. Foster Co. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to L.B. Foster Co. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 04:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ L.B. Foster reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to L.B. Foster Co. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Insider Invests in L.B. Foster   [Mar-27-17 12:46PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ 9 Stocks Mario Gabelli Continues to Buy   [Mar-23-17 04:54PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ L.B. Foster reports 4Q loss   [Mar-02-17 05:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ How ArQule, Inc. (ARQL) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-20-16 02:02PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is L.B. Foster Co (FSTR) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 05:00AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ L.B. Foster Announces Appointment of Senior Vice President   [Aug-08-16 12:37PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ L.B. Foster Company Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-28-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ L.B. Foster Company Amends Credit Agreement   [10:54AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ L.B. Foster Company Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-26-16 10:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of FSTR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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