Intrinsic value of FTD Cos. - FTD

Previous Close

$13.08

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-54%

Previous close

$13.08

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-54%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FTD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.88
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,122
  1,144
  1,171
  1,201
  1,235
  1,272
  1,313
  1,358
  1,406
  1,458
  1,514
  1,574
  1,638
  1,706
  1,778
  1,855
  1,936
  2,023
  2,114
  2,210
  2,311
  2,418
  2,531
  2,650
  2,776
  2,908
  3,047
  3,194
  3,348
  3,510
  3,680
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,049
  1,072
  1,098
  1,128
  1,160
  1,196
  1,235
  1,278
  1,323
  1,372
  1,379
  1,435
  1,494
  1,557
  1,625
  1,696
  1,771
  1,851
  1,935
  2,024
  2,118
  2,217
  2,321
  2,431
  2,547
  2,669
  2,797
  2,932
  3,074
  3,223
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  182
  187
  192
  196
  201
  206
  212
  217
  222
  228
  234
  239
  245
  252
  258
  264
  271
  278
  285
  292
  299
  306
  314
  322
  330
  338
  347
  355
  364
  373
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,203
  1,231
  1,259
  1,290
  1,324
  1,361
  1,402
  1,447
  1,495
  1,545
  1,600
  1,613
  1,674
  1,739
  1,809
  1,883
  1,960
  2,042
  2,129
  2,220
  2,316
  2,417
  2,523
  2,635
  2,753
  2,877
  3,007
  3,144
  3,287
  3,438
  3,596
Operating income, $m
  -81
  -87
  -88
  -89
  -89
  -90
  -90
  -89
  -88
  -87
  -86
  -38
  -36
  -33
  -31
  -27
  -24
  -20
  -15
  -10
  -4
  2
  8
  15
  23
  31
  40
  50
  61
  72
  84
EBITDA, $m
  4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  2
  5
  8
  12
  16
  20
  26
  31
  37
  44
  52
  60
  68
  78
  88
  99
  111
  123
  137
  151
  166
  183
  200
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
Earnings before tax, $m
  -88
  -95
  -97
  -98
  -100
  -100
  -101
  -101
  -101
  -101
  -100
  -53
  -52
  -51
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -38
  -35
  -31
  -26
  -22
  -16
  -10
  -4
  3
  10
  19
  27
  37
Tax expense, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
Net income, $m
  -83
  -95
  -97
  -98
  -100
  -100
  -101
  -101
  -101
  -101
  -100
  -53
  -52
  -51
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -38
  -35
  -31
  -26
  -22
  -16
  -10
  -4
  2
  8
  14
  20
  27

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  81
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  962
  898
  919
  943
  969
  998
  1,031
  1,066
  1,104
  1,145
  1,189
  1,236
  1,286
  1,339
  1,396
  1,456
  1,520
  1,588
  1,659
  1,734
  1,814
  1,898
  1,987
  2,080
  2,179
  2,283
  2,392
  2,507
  2,628
  2,755
  2,889
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  881
  898
  919
  943
  969
  998
  1,031
  1,066
  1,104
  1,145
  1,189
  1,236
  1,286
  1,339
  1,396
  1,456
  1,520
  1,588
  1,659
  1,734
  1,814
  1,898
  1,987
  2,080
  2,179
  2,283
  2,392
  2,507
  2,628
  2,755
  2,889
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.275
  1.275
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.275
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
Average production assets, $m
  369
  375
  384
  394
  405
  417
  431
  445
  461
  478
  497
  516
  537
  560
  583
  609
  635
  663
  693
  725
  758
  793
  830
  869
  911
  954
  999
  1,048
  1,098
  1,151
  1,207
Working capital, $m
  -39
  -102
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -117
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -328
Total debt, $m
  276
  266
  278
  292
  307
  324
  343
  363
  386
  409
  435
  462
  492
  523
  556
  591
  628
  668
  709
  753
  800
  849
  900
  955
  1,012
  1,073
  1,136
  1,203
  1,274
  1,348
  1,426
Total liabilities, $m
  535
  524
  536
  550
  565
  582
  601
  621
  644
  667
  693
  720
  750
  781
  814
  849
  886
  926
  967
  1,011
  1,058
  1,107
  1,158
  1,213
  1,270
  1,331
  1,394
  1,461
  1,532
  1,606
  1,684
Total equity, $m
  428
  375
  383
  393
  404
  416
  430
  444
  460
  477
  496
  515
  536
  558
  582
  607
  634
  662
  692
  723
  757
  792
  829
  868
  909
  952
  997
  1,045
  1,096
  1,149
  1,205
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  963
  899
  919
  943
  969
  998
  1,031
  1,065
  1,104
  1,144
  1,189
  1,235
  1,286
  1,339
  1,396
  1,456
  1,520
  1,588
  1,659
  1,734
  1,815
  1,899
  1,987
  2,081
  2,179
  2,283
  2,391
  2,506
  2,628
  2,755
  2,889
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.645
  0.710
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.940
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.394
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417
  0.417

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -83
  -95
  -97
  -98
  -100
  -100
  -101
  -101
  -101
  -101
  -100
  -53
  -52
  -51
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -38
  -35
  -31
  -26
  -22
  -16
  -10
  -4
  2
  8
  14
  20
  27
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  85
  82
  83
  84
  85
  86
  88
  89
  91
  92
  94
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
Funds from operations, $m
  72
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -6
  -4
  0
  3
  7
  12
  17
  22
  28
  35
  42
  50
  58
  67
  77
  88
  98
  108
  119
  131
  143
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Cash from operations, $m
  77
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -1
  2
  5
  9
  14
  19
  24
  30
  36
  43
  51
  59
  68
  78
  88
  99
  111
  121
  133
  145
  158
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
Free cash flow, $m
  60
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -65
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -65
  -65
  -64
  -63
  -61
  -59
  -57
  -55
  -52
  -49
  -45
  -41
  -36
  -31
  -27
  -23
  -18
  -14
  -9
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -20
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -15
  103
  106
  108
  111
  113
  114
  116
  117
  118
  119
  73
  73
  73
  72
  72
  71
  70
  68
  66
  64
  61
  59
  55
  51
  47
  43
  40
  37
  33
  29
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -36
  113
  118
  122
  126
  130
  133
  136
  139
  142
  145
  100
  102
  104
  105
  107
  108
  109
  110
  110
  110
  110
  111
  109
  108
  107
  107
  107
  108
  107
  107
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  59
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  98
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  100
  -103
  -106
  -108
  -111
  -113
  -114
  -116
  -117
  -118
  -119
  -73
  -73
  -73
  -72
  -72
  -71
  -70
  -68
  -66
  -64
  -61
  -59
  -55
  -51
  -47
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  17
  -44
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -42
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -34
  -31
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -11
  -5
  0
  7
  14
  21
  29
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Discount rate, %
 
  5.10
  5.36
  5.62
  5.90
  6.20
  6.51
  6.83
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.45
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  16
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -33
  -30
  -27
  -25
  -22
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  74.9
  56.1
  42.0
  31.4
  23.6
  17.8
  13.5
  10.3
  7.9
  6.1
  5.2
  4.4
  3.8
  3.3
  2.9
  2.5
  2.2
  2.0
  1.8
  1.6
  1.5
  1.4
  1.3
  1.2
  1.1
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0
  0.9
  0.9

FTD Companies, Inc. (FTD) is a floral and gifting company. The Company operates through four segments: Consumer, Florist, International and Provide Commerce. Through its Consumer segment, FTD is a direct marketer of floral and gift products for consumers, primarily in the United States and Canada. Through its Florist segment, the Company is a provider of products and services to its floral network members, which include traditional retail florists and other non-florist retail locations, primarily in the United States and Canada. Its International segment consists of Interflora, which operates primarily in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. Through its Provide Commerce segment, FTD is a direct marketer of floral and gift products, including specialty foods, personalized gifts and other gifting products for consumers, primarily in the United States. Its portfolio of brands includes ProFlowers, ProPlants, Flying Flowers, Flowers Direct, Ink Cards, Postagram, and Gifts.com.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  FTD Cos. (FTD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.7
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 5.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 59.8%
Total Debt to Equity 64.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Return On Total Capital -10.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.6%
Return On Equity -17.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37%
EBITDA Margin -0.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Operating Margin -7.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Net Profit Margin -7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 5.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Payout Ratio 0%

FTD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FTD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1122 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by FTD Cos.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of FTD Cos.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FTD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.1%, whose default value for FTD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of FTD Cos., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of FTD Cos..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FTD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $178 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FTD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for FTD Cos..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for FTD Cos.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FTD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FTD are equal to 32.8%.

Life of production assets of 10.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in FTD Cos. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FTD is equal to -8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $428 million for FTD Cos. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.48 million for FTD Cos. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of FTD Cos. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ FTD posts 2Q profit   [Aug-08-17 11:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FTD Cos., Inc. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 03:59PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FTD Cos., Inc. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 02:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to FTD Cos., Inc. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why FTD Companies Inc. Stock Fell 13% in May   [Jun-07-17 09:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ FTD posts 1Q profit   [May-09-17 04:58PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of FTD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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