Intrinsic value of Flotek Industries - FTK

Previous Close

$4.65

  Intrinsic Value

$61.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$4.65

 
Intrinsic value

$61.25

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of FTK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.59
  32.80
  30.02
  27.52
  25.27
  23.24
  21.42
  19.77
  18.30
  16.97
  15.77
  14.69
  13.72
  12.85
  12.07
  11.36
  10.72
  10.15
  9.64
  9.17
  8.76
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.45
  6.31
Revenue, $m
  263
  349
  454
  579
  725
  894
  1,085
  1,300
  1,538
  1,799
  2,083
  2,389
  2,716
  3,065
  3,435
  3,826
  4,236
  4,666
  5,115
  5,585
  6,074
  6,582
  7,112
  7,662
  8,234
  8,828
  9,446
  10,088
  10,755
  11,450
  12,172
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  64
  82
  103
  128
  156
  188
  225
  265
  308
  356
  402
  457
  516
  578
  644
  713
  785
  861
  940
  1,022
  1,108
  1,197
  1,290
  1,386
  1,486
  1,590
  1,698
  1,810
  1,927
  2,049
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  216
  222
  227
  233
  239
  245
  251
  257
  264
  270
  277
  284
  291
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  354
  363
  372
  382
  391
  401
  411
  421
  432
  443
Total operating expenses, $m
  257
  280
  304
  330
  361
  395
  433
  476
  522
  572
  626
  679
  741
  807
  876
  950
  1,026
  1,106
  1,190
  1,277
  1,368
  1,462
  1,560
  1,662
  1,768
  1,877
  1,991
  2,109
  2,231
  2,359
  2,492
Operating income, $m
  5
  68
  150
  249
  365
  499
  652
  825
  1,016
  1,227
  1,456
  1,710
  1,975
  2,259
  2,559
  2,876
  3,210
  3,559
  3,925
  4,307
  4,705
  5,120
  5,551
  6,000
  6,466
  6,951
  7,455
  7,979
  8,524
  9,091
  9,681
EBITDA, $m
  15
  83
  168
  269
  389
  528
  686
  864
  1,061
  1,279
  1,515
  1,771
  2,045
  2,337
  2,647
  2,974
  3,318
  3,679
  4,056
  4,450
  4,861
  5,288
  5,733
  6,196
  6,677
  7,177
  7,697
  8,237
  8,799
  9,383
  9,992
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  97
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  67
  147
  244
  359
  491
  642
  812
  1,000
  1,207
  1,433
  1,683
  1,944
  2,223
  2,518
  2,830
  3,158
  3,503
  3,863
  4,238
  4,630
  5,038
  5,462
  5,903
  6,362
  6,839
  7,335
  7,850
  8,386
  8,943
  9,524
Tax expense, $m
  1
  18
  40
  66
  97
  133
  173
  219
  270
  326
  387
  454
  525
  600
  680
  764
  853
  946
  1,043
  1,144
  1,250
  1,360
  1,475
  1,594
  1,718
  1,847
  1,980
  2,119
  2,264
  2,415
  2,571
Net income, $m
  -49
  49
  108
  178
  262
  358
  469
  592
  730
  881
  1,046
  1,228
  1,419
  1,623
  1,838
  2,066
  2,306
  2,557
  2,820
  3,094
  3,380
  3,678
  3,987
  4,310
  4,644
  4,992
  5,354
  5,730
  6,122
  6,529
  6,952

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  383
  502
  652
  832
  1,042
  1,284
  1,559
  1,868
  2,210
  2,585
  2,992
  3,432
  3,903
  4,404
  4,936
  5,496
  6,086
  6,704
  7,350
  8,024
  8,726
  9,458
  10,218
  11,009
  11,830
  12,684
  13,572
  14,494
  15,453
  16,451
  17,488
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  378
  502
  652
  832
  1,042
  1,284
  1,559
  1,868
  2,210
  2,585
  2,992
  3,432
  3,903
  4,404
  4,936
  5,496
  6,086
  6,704
  7,350
  8,024
  8,726
  9,458
  10,218
  11,009
  11,830
  12,684
  13,572
  14,494
  15,453
  16,451
  17,488
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.696
  0.695
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
Average production assets, $m
  117
  155
  202
  258
  323
  398
  483
  579
  684
  800
  927
  1,063
  1,209
  1,364
  1,529
  1,702
  1,885
  2,076
  2,276
  2,485
  2,703
  2,929
  3,165
  3,410
  3,664
  3,929
  4,203
  4,489
  4,786
  5,095
  5,417
Working capital, $m
  101
  175
  227
  290
  363
  447
  543
  650
  769
  899
  1,041
  1,194
  1,358
  1,533
  1,718
  1,913
  2,118
  2,333
  2,558
  2,792
  3,037
  3,291
  3,556
  3,831
  4,117
  4,414
  4,723
  5,044
  5,378
  5,725
  6,086
Total debt, $m
  48
  73
  109
  153
  203
  262
  328
  402
  485
  575
  673
  779
  893
  1,013
  1,142
  1,277
  1,419
  1,568
  1,723
  1,886
  2,055
  2,231
  2,415
  2,605
  2,803
  3,009
  3,223
  3,445
  3,676
  3,917
  4,167
Total liabilities, $m
  96
  121
  157
  201
  251
  310
  376
  450
  533
  623
  721
  827
  941
  1,061
  1,190
  1,325
  1,467
  1,616
  1,771
  1,934
  2,103
  2,279
  2,463
  2,653
  2,851
  3,057
  3,271
  3,493
  3,724
  3,965
  4,215
Total equity, $m
  287
  381
  495
  631
  791
  975
  1,184
  1,418
  1,677
  1,962
  2,271
  2,605
  2,962
  3,343
  3,746
  4,172
  4,619
  5,088
  5,578
  6,090
  6,623
  7,178
  7,756
  8,356
  8,979
  9,627
  10,301
  11,001
  11,729
  12,486
  13,274
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  383
  502
  652
  832
  1,042
  1,285
  1,560
  1,868
  2,210
  2,585
  2,992
  3,432
  3,903
  4,404
  4,936
  5,497
  6,086
  6,704
  7,349
  8,024
  8,726
  9,457
  10,219
  11,009
  11,830
  12,684
  13,572
  14,494
  15,453
  16,451
  17,489
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.167
  0.190
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.746
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759
  0.759

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -49
  49
  108
  178
  262
  358
  469
  592
  730
  881
  1,046
  1,228
  1,419
  1,623
  1,838
  2,066
  2,306
  2,557
  2,820
  3,094
  3,380
  3,678
  3,987
  4,310
  4,644
  4,992
  5,354
  5,730
  6,122
  6,529
  6,952
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  15
  17
  21
  24
  29
  33
  39
  45
  52
  59
  61
  69
  78
  88
  98
  108
  119
  131
  143
  155
  168
  182
  196
  211
  226
  242
  258
  275
  293
  311
Funds from operations, $m
  -4
  63
  125
  199
  286
  387
  502
  631
  775
  933
  1,105
  1,289
  1,489
  1,701
  1,926
  2,164
  2,414
  2,676
  2,950
  3,237
  3,535
  3,846
  4,169
  4,505
  4,855
  5,218
  5,596
  5,988
  6,397
  6,822
  7,264
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  43
  52
  62
  73
  84
  96
  107
  119
  130
  142
  153
  164
  175
  185
  195
  205
  215
  225
  235
  244
  254
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  347
  361
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  20
  72
  136
  213
  303
  406
  524
  656
  803
  963
  1,136
  1,325
  1,527
  1,741
  1,969
  2,209
  2,461
  2,726
  3,002
  3,291
  3,592
  3,905
  4,230
  4,569
  4,921
  5,287
  5,667
  6,063
  6,474
  6,903
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -61
  -69
  -78
  -88
  -98
  -108
  -119
  -131
  -143
  -155
  -168
  -182
  -196
  -211
  -226
  -242
  -258
  -275
  -293
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -38
  -47
  -56
  -65
  -75
  -85
  -96
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -146
  -155
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -226
  -236
  -245
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -309
  -321
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -45
  -56
  -68
  -80
  -94
  -108
  -124
  -139
  -155
  -172
  -189
  -207
  -224
  -243
  -262
  -281
  -299
  -319
  -340
  -361
  -381
  -404
  -427
  -450
  -475
  -501
  -528
  -555
  -584
  -614
Free cash flow, $m
  -20
  -25
  17
  69
  133
  209
  298
  401
  517
  647
  791
  947
  1,118
  1,302
  1,498
  1,707
  1,928
  2,162
  2,406
  2,663
  2,930
  3,210
  3,501
  3,804
  4,119
  4,446
  4,786
  5,140
  5,508
  5,890
  6,288
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  30
  36
  43
  51
  58
  66
  74
  82
  90
  98
  106
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  29
  45
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  23
  75
  43
  43
  51
  58
  66
  74
  82
  90
  98
  106
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  50
  60
  112
  184
  267
  365
  475
  599
  738
  889
  1,053
  1,231
  1,423
  1,626
  1,842
  2,071
  2,310
  2,562
  2,825
  3,100
  3,386
  3,684
  3,994
  4,317
  4,652
  5,000
  5,362
  5,739
  6,131
  6,538
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  7
  -94
  -114
  -136
  -160
  -184
  -209
  -234
  -259
  -285
  -309
  -334
  -357
  -381
  -403
  -426
  -447
  -469
  -490
  -512
  -533
  -555
  -577
  -600
  -624
  -648
  -674
  -700
  -728
  -757
  -788
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -44
  -54
  -24
  24
  84
  156
  241
  340
  453
  580
  719
  874
  1,042
  1,223
  1,417
  1,623
  1,842
  2,072
  2,313
  2,566
  2,831
  3,107
  3,394
  3,693
  4,004
  4,327
  4,662
  5,011
  5,374
  5,751
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -41
  -49
  -20
  19
  60
  103
  145
  185
  222
  252
  275
  292
  300
  300
  293
  279
  259
  236
  209
  182
  154
  128
  104
  82
  63
  47
  35
  25
  17
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  85.5
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9
  83.9

Flotek Industries, Inc. is a technology-driven company. The Company develops and supplies chemistry and services to the oil and gas industries, and compounds to companies that make cleaning products, cosmetics, food and beverages, and other products that are sold in consumer and industrial markets. The Company operates through two segments: Energy Chemistry Technologies (ECT), and Consumer and Industrial Chemistry Technologies (CICT). The ECT segment designs, develops, manufactures, packages and markets chemistries for use in oil and gas well drilling, cementing, completion and stimulation activities. Its ECT segment's services include Reservoir Characterization, Polymer Conformance and Logistics Management. The CICT segment sources citrus oil domestically and internationally, and processor of citrus oils in the world. The CICT segment designs, develops and manufactures products that are sold to companies in the flavor and fragrance industries and specialty chemical industry.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Flotek Industries (FTK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5.4
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 132.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -22.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.8
LT Debt to Equity 2.4%
Total Debt to Equity 16.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -12.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Total Capital -14.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Return On Equity -16.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37%
EBITDA Margin 5.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Operating Margin 2.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Net Profit Margin -18.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

FTK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FTK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $263 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Flotek Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Flotek Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FTK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 32.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for FTK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Flotek Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Flotek Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FTK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 19%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $211 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FTK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Flotek Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Flotek Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FTK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FTK are equal to 44.5%.

Life of production assets of 17.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Flotek Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FTK is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $287 million for Flotek Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57.332 million for Flotek Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Flotek Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ A Look at Schlumbergers Short Interest on August 18   [Aug-21-17 03:06PM  Market Realist]
▶ Flotek Industries Current Valuation versus Its Peers   [Aug-18-17 10:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Flotek Industries Announces Conference Participation   [Aug-16-17 08:05AM  PR Newswire]
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Financial statements of FTK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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