Intrinsic value of Fortinet - FTNT

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$39.53

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$39.53

 
Intrinsic value

$45.57

 
Up/down potential

+15%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FTNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  26.36
  22.20
  20.48
  18.93
  17.54
  16.28
  15.16
  14.14
  13.23
  12.40
  11.66
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.93
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
Revenue, $m
  1,275
  1,558
  1,877
  2,233
  2,624
  3,051
  3,514
  4,011
  4,541
  5,105
  5,700
  6,327
  6,985
  7,673
  8,392
  9,142
  9,923
  10,735
  11,580
  12,458
  13,370
  14,319
  15,304
  16,328
  17,394
  18,502
  19,656
  20,857
  22,108
  23,413
  24,773
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,400
  1,687
  2,006
  2,357
  2,741
  3,156
  3,602
  4,079
  4,585
  5,119
  5,680
  6,271
  6,889
  7,535
  8,208
  8,909
  9,638
  10,397
  11,185
  12,004
  12,856
  13,740
  14,660
  15,616
  16,612
  17,647
  18,726
  19,849
  21,020
  22,242
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  178
  182
  187
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,233
  1,491
  1,781
  2,102
  2,455
  2,842
  3,259
  3,708
  4,187
  4,696
  5,233
  5,797
  6,391
  7,012
  7,661
  8,337
  9,041
  9,773
  10,536
  11,327
  12,150
  13,005
  13,893
  14,817
  15,777
  16,777
  17,816
  18,899
  20,027
  21,202
  22,429
Operating income, $m
  43
  66
  97
  131
  168
  210
  254
  303
  354
  409
  467
  530
  594
  661
  732
  805
  882
  961
  1,044
  1,131
  1,220
  1,314
  1,410
  1,511
  1,616
  1,725
  1,839
  1,958
  2,081
  2,210
  2,345
EBITDA, $m
  92
  101
  138
  180
  226
  276
  331
  390
  453
  520
  590
  665
  743
  826
  911
  1,001
  1,094
  1,191
  1,292
  1,397
  1,506
  1,620
  1,738
  1,861
  1,988
  2,121
  2,260
  2,404
  2,554
  2,711
  2,875
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -5
  3
  13
  23
  34
  46
  59
  73
  87
  103
  119
  136
  154
  173
  192
  213
  234
  256
  279
  303
  327
  353
  380
  407
  436
  466
  497
  530
  564
Earnings before tax, $m
  43
  66
  102
  127
  156
  187
  220
  257
  295
  336
  380
  427
  475
  525
  578
  632
  689
  749
  810
  875
  942
  1,011
  1,083
  1,158
  1,237
  1,318
  1,403
  1,492
  1,584
  1,680
  1,781
Tax expense, $m
  11
  18
  27
  34
  42
  50
  60
  69
  80
  91
  103
  115
  128
  142
  156
  171
  186
  202
  219
  236
  254
  273
  292
  313
  334
  356
  379
  403
  428
  454
  481
Net income, $m
  32
  49
  74
  93
  114
  136
  161
  187
  216
  245
  277
  312
  347
  383
  422
  462
  503
  547
  592
  639
  687
  738
  791
  846
  903
  962
  1,024
  1,089
  1,156
  1,226
  1,300

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,086
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,140
  1,288
  1,551
  1,845
  2,169
  2,522
  2,904
  3,315
  3,753
  4,219
  4,711
  5,229
  5,772
  6,341
  6,936
  7,555
  8,201
  8,872
  9,570
  10,296
  11,050
  11,833
  12,648
  13,495
  14,375
  15,291
  16,244
  17,237
  18,271
  19,349
  20,474
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,054
  1,288
  1,551
  1,845
  2,169
  2,522
  2,904
  3,315
  3,753
  4,219
  4,711
  5,229
  5,772
  6,341
  6,936
  7,555
  8,201
  8,872
  9,570
  10,296
  11,050
  11,833
  12,648
  13,495
  14,375
  15,291
  16,244
  17,237
  18,271
  19,349
  20,474
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
Average production assets, $m
  136
  167
  201
  239
  281
  327
  376
  429
  486
  546
  610
  677
  747
  821
  898
  978
  1,062
  1,149
  1,239
  1,333
  1,431
  1,532
  1,638
  1,747
  1,861
  1,980
  2,103
  2,232
  2,366
  2,505
  2,651
Working capital, $m
  710
  -460
  -554
  -659
  -774
  -900
  -1,037
  -1,183
  -1,340
  -1,506
  -1,681
  -1,866
  -2,060
  -2,264
  -2,476
  -2,697
  -2,927
  -3,167
  -3,416
  -3,675
  -3,944
  -4,224
  -4,515
  -4,817
  -5,131
  -5,458
  -5,798
  -6,153
  -6,522
  -6,907
  -7,308
Total debt, $m
  0
  -143
  94
  359
  650
  968
  1,312
  1,681
  2,076
  2,495
  2,938
  3,404
  3,893
  4,405
  4,940
  5,498
  6,079
  6,683
  7,311
  7,964
  8,643
  9,348
  10,081
  10,843
  11,635
  12,460
  13,318
  14,211
  15,142
  16,112
  17,124
Total liabilities, $m
  1,302
  1,159
  1,396
  1,661
  1,952
  2,270
  2,614
  2,983
  3,378
  3,797
  4,240
  4,706
  5,195
  5,707
  6,242
  6,800
  7,381
  7,985
  8,613
  9,266
  9,945
  10,650
  11,383
  12,145
  12,937
  13,762
  14,620
  15,513
  16,444
  17,414
  18,426
Total equity, $m
  838
  129
  155
  185
  217
  252
  290
  331
  375
  422
  471
  523
  577
  634
  694
  756
  820
  887
  957
  1,030
  1,105
  1,183
  1,265
  1,349
  1,437
  1,529
  1,624
  1,724
  1,827
  1,935
  2,047
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,140
  1,288
  1,551
  1,846
  2,169
  2,522
  2,904
  3,314
  3,753
  4,219
  4,711
  5,229
  5,772
  6,341
  6,936
  7,556
  8,201
  8,872
  9,570
  10,296
  11,050
  11,833
  12,648
  13,494
  14,374
  15,291
  16,244
  17,237
  18,271
  19,349
  20,473
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -1.110
  0.610
  1.940
  3.000
  3.840
  4.520
  5.070
  5.530
  5.910
  6.240
  6.510
  6.740
  6.950
  7.120
  7.280
  7.410
  7.530
  7.640
  7.740
  7.820
  7.900
  7.970
  8.040
  8.090
  8.150
  8.200
  8.240
  8.290
  8.330
  8.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.235
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  32
  49
  74
  93
  114
  136
  161
  187
  216
  245
  277
  312
  347
  383
  422
  462
  503
  547
  592
  639
  687
  738
  791
  846
  903
  962
  1,024
  1,089
  1,156
  1,226
  1,300
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  49
  35
  42
  49
  58
  67
  77
  87
  99
  111
  123
  135
  149
  164
  180
  196
  212
  230
  248
  267
  286
  306
  328
  349
  372
  396
  421
  446
  473
  501
  530
Funds from operations, $m
  509
  83
  116
  142
  171
  203
  238
  275
  314
  356
  401
  447
  496
  548
  601
  657
  716
  776
  839
  905
  973
  1,044
  1,118
  1,195
  1,275
  1,358
  1,445
  1,535
  1,629
  1,728
  1,830
Change in working capital, $m
  163
  -83
  -94
  -105
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -249
  -259
  -269
  -280
  -291
  -302
  -314
  -327
  -340
  -354
  -369
  -385
  -401
Cash from operations, $m
  346
  194
  210
  247
  287
  329
  374
  421
  471
  522
  576
  632
  690
  751
  813
  878
  946
  1,016
  1,089
  1,164
  1,243
  1,324
  1,409
  1,497
  1,589
  1,685
  1,785
  1,890
  1,999
  2,112
  2,231
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -27
  -33
  -40
  -48
  -56
  -65
  -75
  -86
  -97
  -109
  -122
  -135
  -149
  -164
  -180
  -196
  -212
  -230
  -248
  -267
  -286
  -306
  -328
  -349
  -372
  -396
  -421
  -446
  -473
  -501
New CAPEX, $m
  -67
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -58
  -67
  -78
  -90
  -102
  -114
  -128
  -143
  -157
  -173
  -189
  -205
  -223
  -241
  -260
  -280
  -299
  -320
  -342
  -365
  -387
  -411
  -438
  -463
  -491
  -519
  -550
  -580
  -613
  -647
Free cash flow, $m
  272
  136
  143
  169
  197
  227
  259
  293
  328
  365
  403
  443
  484
  527
  572
  619
  667
  717
  769
  822
  878
  937
  997
  1,060
  1,126
  1,194
  1,266
  1,340
  1,418
  1,500
  1,585
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -143
  237
  264
  291
  318
  344
  370
  395
  419
  443
  466
  489
  512
  535
  558
  581
  604
  628
  653
  679
  705
  733
  762
  792
  824
  858
  893
  931
  970
  1,012
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -106
  -143
  237
  264
  291
  318
  344
  370
  395
  419
  443
  466
  489
  512
  535
  558
  581
  604
  628
  653
  679
  705
  733
  762
  792
  824
  858
  893
  931
  970
  1,012
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  166
  -7
  380
  433
  488
  545
  603
  662
  723
  784
  846
  909
  974
  1,040
  1,107
  1,176
  1,248
  1,321
  1,397
  1,475
  1,557
  1,642
  1,730
  1,822
  1,918
  2,019
  2,124
  2,234
  2,349
  2,470
  2,596
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -83
  -377
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,086
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  702
  354
  404
  456
  510
  565
  621
  679
  737
  797
  857
  919
  983
  1,048
  1,114
  1,183
  1,254
  1,327
  1,403
  1,482
  1,563
  1,649
  1,738
  1,830
  1,927
  2,029
  2,135
  2,246
  2,362
  2,484
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  673
  324
  352
  376
  395
  410
  420
  424
  424
  418
  407
  392
  374
  352
  327
  301
  273
  244
  216
  188
  162
  137
  114
  93
  75
  59
  46
  35
  26
  19
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Fortinet, Inc. provides cyber security solutions for enterprises, service providers, and government organizations worldwide. The company offers FortiGate physical and virtual appliances products that provide various security and networking functions, including firewall, intrusion prevention, anti-malware, virtual private network, application control, Web filtering, anti-spam, and wide area network acceleration; FortiManager product family to provide a central management solution for FortiGate products comprising software updates, configuration, policy settings, and security updates; and the FortiAnalyzer product family, which provides a single point of network log data collection. It also offers FortiAP secure wireless access points; FortiWeb, a Web application firewall; FortiMail email security; FortiDB database security appliances; FortiClient, an endpoint security software; and FortiSwitch secure switch connectivity products. In addition, the company provides FortiSandbox advanced threat protection solutions; and FortiDDos and FortiDB database security appliances. Further, it offers security subscription, technical support, training, and professional services. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fortinet (FTNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 213.8
Price to Sales 5.4
Price to Book 8.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 26.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 81.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 36.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity 4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.7%
EBITDA Margin 7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Effective Tax Rate 25.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

FTNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FTNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1275 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fortinet. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fortinet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FTNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FTNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fortinet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fortinet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FTNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $89 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FTNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Fortinet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fortinet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FTNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FTNT are equal to 10.7%.

Life of production assets of 3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fortinet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FTNT is equal to -29.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $838 million for Fortinet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 177.575 million for Fortinet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fortinet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ My Game Plan Is to Not Trust That Upside   [Apr-17-17 10:56AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Fortinet to Announce First Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Apr-06-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
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▶ Why Fortinet Inc. Gained 12.3% in February   [Mar-10-17 02:22PM  at Motley Fool]
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▶ Should You Be Watching Fortinet Too?   [11:36AM  at Market Realist]
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▶ What Is Driving Fortinets Earnings?   [01:35PM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Why Shares of Fortinet Surged Today   [12:24PM  at Motley Fool]
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Stock chart of FTNT Financial statements of FTNT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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