Intrinsic value of GATX - GATX

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$63.94

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GATX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.21
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,418
  1,446
  1,480
  1,518
  1,560
  1,608
  1,660
  1,716
  1,777
  1,843
  1,914
  1,990
  2,070
  2,156
  2,248
  2,345
  2,447
  2,556
  2,671
  2,793
  2,921
  3,056
  3,199
  3,350
  3,508
  3,675
  3,851
  4,036
  4,231
  4,436
  4,651
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,088
  1,112
  1,141
  1,173
  1,208
  1,247
  1,289
  1,335
  1,384
  1,437
  1,485
  1,545
  1,610
  1,678
  1,750
  1,827
  1,908
  1,994
  2,085
  2,181
  2,282
  2,388
  2,501
  2,619
  2,744
  2,875
  3,013
  3,158
  3,311
  3,472
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,051
  1,088
  1,112
  1,141
  1,173
  1,208
  1,247
  1,289
  1,335
  1,384
  1,437
  1,485
  1,545
  1,610
  1,678
  1,750
  1,827
  1,908
  1,994
  2,085
  2,181
  2,282
  2,388
  2,501
  2,619
  2,744
  2,875
  3,013
  3,158
  3,311
  3,472
Operating income, $m
  367
  359
  367
  377
  388
  400
  413
  427
  443
  459
  477
  504
  525
  547
  570
  594
  620
  648
  677
  708
  740
  775
  811
  849
  889
  932
  976
  1,023
  1,073
  1,125
  1,179
EBITDA, $m
  677
  679
  694
  712
  732
  754
  779
  805
  834
  865
  898
  934
  971
  1,012
  1,055
  1,100
  1,148
  1,199
  1,253
  1,310
  1,371
  1,434
  1,501
  1,572
  1,646
  1,725
  1,807
  1,894
  1,985
  2,081
  2,183
Interest expense (income), $m
  145
  149
  153
  158
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
  281
  295
  311
  327
  344
  362
  382
  402
  423
  446
  469
  494
  520
  548
  577
Earnings before tax, $m
  305
  209
  214
  219
  224
  230
  237
  244
  251
  259
  268
  285
  295
  305
  316
  328
  340
  353
  367
  381
  396
  412
  429
  447
  466
  486
  507
  529
  552
  576
  602
Tax expense, $m
  95
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
Net income, $m
  257
  153
  156
  160
  164
  168
  173
  178
  183
  189
  196
  208
  215
  223
  231
  239
  248
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  314
  327
  340
  355
  370
  386
  403
  421
  439

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  308
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,105
  6,920
  7,080
  7,261
  7,466
  7,692
  7,940
  8,211
  8,504
  8,819
  9,157
  9,519
  9,906
  10,317
  10,754
  11,218
  11,710
  12,230
  12,781
  13,362
  13,976
  14,624
  15,307
  16,027
  16,786
  17,585
  18,427
  19,312
  20,244
  21,224
  22,256
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,797
  6,920
  7,080
  7,261
  7,466
  7,692
  7,940
  8,211
  8,504
  8,819
  9,157
  9,519
  9,906
  10,317
  10,754
  11,218
  11,710
  12,230
  12,781
  13,362
  13,976
  14,624
  15,307
  16,027
  16,786
  17,585
  18,427
  19,312
  20,244
  21,224
  22,256
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
Average production assets, $m
  5,781
  5,897
  6,032
  6,187
  6,362
  6,554
  6,766
  6,996
  7,246
  7,515
  7,803
  8,111
  8,441
  8,791
  9,164
  9,559
  9,978
  10,421
  10,890
  11,386
  11,909
  12,461
  13,043
  13,657
  14,303
  14,984
  15,701
  16,456
  17,250
  18,085
  18,964
Working capital, $m
  0
  -310
  -317
  -325
  -334
  -344
  -355
  -367
  -380
  -394
  -410
  -426
  -443
  -461
  -481
  -502
  -524
  -547
  -572
  -598
  -625
  -654
  -685
  -717
  -751
  -787
  -824
  -864
  -905
  -949
  -995
Total debt, $m
  4,272
  4,376
  4,510
  4,664
  4,838
  5,029
  5,240
  5,469
  5,717
  5,984
  6,270
  6,577
  6,904
  7,253
  7,623
  8,016
  8,432
  8,873
  9,339
  9,832
  10,352
  10,900
  11,479
  12,089
  12,732
  13,409
  14,121
  14,871
  15,661
  16,491
  17,365
Total liabilities, $m
  5,758
  5,862
  5,996
  6,150
  6,324
  6,515
  6,726
  6,955
  7,203
  7,470
  7,756
  8,063
  8,390
  8,739
  9,109
  9,502
  9,918
  10,359
  10,825
  11,318
  11,838
  12,386
  12,965
  13,575
  14,218
  14,895
  15,607
  16,357
  17,147
  17,977
  18,851
Total equity, $m
  1,347
  1,059
  1,083
  1,111
  1,142
  1,177
  1,215
  1,256
  1,301
  1,349
  1,401
  1,456
  1,516
  1,579
  1,645
  1,716
  1,792
  1,871
  1,955
  2,044
  2,138
  2,237
  2,342
  2,452
  2,568
  2,691
  2,819
  2,955
  3,097
  3,247
  3,405
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,105
  6,921
  7,079
  7,261
  7,466
  7,692
  7,941
  8,211
  8,504
  8,819
  9,157
  9,519
  9,906
  10,318
  10,754
  11,218
  11,710
  12,230
  12,780
  13,362
  13,976
  14,623
  15,307
  16,027
  16,786
  17,586
  18,426
  19,312
  20,244
  21,224
  22,256
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.171
  4.130
  4.160
  4.200
  4.240
  4.270
  4.310
  4.350
  4.390
  4.430
  4.480
  4.520
  4.560
  4.590
  4.630
  4.670
  4.710
  4.740
  4.780
  4.810
  4.840
  4.870
  4.900
  4.930
  4.960
  4.980
  5.010
  5.030
  5.060
  5.080
  5.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  257
  153
  156
  160
  164
  168
  173
  178
  183
  189
  196
  208
  215
  223
  231
  239
  248
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  314
  327
  340
  355
  370
  386
  403
  421
  439
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  310
  320
  327
  335
  344
  355
  366
  378
  391
  405
  421
  429
  447
  465
  485
  506
  528
  551
  576
  602
  630
  659
  690
  723
  757
  793
  831
  871
  913
  957
  1,003
Funds from operations, $m
  623
  473
  483
  495
  508
  523
  539
  556
  575
  595
  616
  637
  662
  688
  715
  745
  776
  809
  844
  881
  919
  960
  1,004
  1,049
  1,097
  1,148
  1,201
  1,257
  1,316
  1,378
  1,443
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Cash from operations, $m
  626
  530
  490
  503
  517
  533
  550
  568
  588
  609
  631
  653
  679
  706
  735
  766
  798
  832
  868
  907
  947
  989
  1,034
  1,081
  1,131
  1,183
  1,238
  1,296
  1,357
  1,421
  1,489
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -306
  -312
  -319
  -327
  -337
  -347
  -358
  -370
  -383
  -398
  -413
  -429
  -447
  -465
  -485
  -506
  -528
  -551
  -576
  -602
  -630
  -659
  -690
  -723
  -757
  -793
  -831
  -871
  -913
  -957
New CAPEX, $m
  -713
  -116
  -136
  -155
  -174
  -193
  -212
  -230
  -249
  -269
  -288
  -309
  -329
  -351
  -373
  -395
  -419
  -443
  -469
  -495
  -523
  -552
  -582
  -614
  -647
  -681
  -717
  -755
  -794
  -835
  -879
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -395
  -422
  -448
  -474
  -501
  -530
  -559
  -588
  -619
  -652
  -686
  -722
  -758
  -798
  -838
  -880
  -925
  -971
  -1,020
  -1,071
  -1,125
  -1,182
  -1,241
  -1,304
  -1,370
  -1,438
  -1,510
  -1,586
  -1,665
  -1,748
  -1,836
Free cash flow, $m
  231
  108
  43
  29
  16
  3
  -9
  -20
  -32
  -43
  -55
  -68
  -79
  -91
  -103
  -115
  -127
  -139
  -152
  -165
  -179
  -193
  -207
  -222
  -238
  -254
  -271
  -289
  -307
  -327
  -347
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  52
  108
  135
  154
  173
  192
  210
  229
  248
  267
  287
  307
  327
  348
  370
  393
  416
  441
  466
  493
  520
  549
  579
  610
  643
  677
  713
  750
  789
  830
  873
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -120
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -58
  108
  135
  154
  173
  192
  210
  229
  248
  267
  287
  307
  327
  348
  370
  393
  416
  441
  466
  493
  520
  549
  579
  610
  643
  677
  713
  750
  789
  830
  873
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  172
  216
  178
  183
  189
  195
  202
  209
  216
  224
  232
  239
  248
  257
  268
  278
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  356
  371
  388
  405
  423
  441
  461
  482
  504
  527
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -67
  -16
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -143
  -150
  -158
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  304
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  504
  153
  155
  158
  161
  164
  167
  171
  176
  180
  183
  189
  195
  201
  207
  215
  222
  230
  238
  247
  257
  267
  277
  289
  300
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
Discount rate, %
 
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.92
  12.52
  13.15
  13.80
  14.49
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.42
  20.39
  21.41
  22.48
  23.61
  24.79
  26.03
  27.33
  28.70
  30.13
  31.64
  33.22
  34.88
  36.62
  38.45
  40.38
  42.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  457
  125
  112
  101
  89
  78
  68
  58
  49
  41
  33
  27
  21
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

GATX Corporation leases, operates, manages, and remarkets assets in the rail and marine markets in North America and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Rail North America, Rail International, American Steamship Company (ASC), and Portfolio Management. The Rail North America segment primarily leases railcars and locomotive. This segment also offers services, including interior cleaning of railcars, routine maintenance and repairs to car body and safety appliances, regulatory compliance work, wheelset replacements, exterior blast and painting, and car stenciling. The Rail International segment leases railcars, as well as offers repair, regulatory compliance, and modernization work for railcars. The ASC segment operates a fleet of vessels that provide waterborne transportation of dry bulk commodities, such as iron ore, coal, limestone aggregates, and metallurgical limestone for the steel makers, automobile manufacturing, electricity generation, and non-residential construction markets. The Portfolio Management segment is involved in leasing, marine, and asset remarketing operations, as well as manages portfolios of assets for third parties. As of December 31, 2016, it operated a fleet of 148,941 railcars; 660 locomotives; 17 vessels; and 18,500 boxcars. GATX Corporation was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GATX (GATX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.8
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4
Price to Free Cash Flow -29
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 504.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 77
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 316.9%
Total Debt to Equity 317.1%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Equity 19.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.8%
EBITDA Margin 53.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.5%
Operating Margin 25.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Net Profit Margin 18.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Effective Tax Rate 31.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 26.1%

GATX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GATX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1418 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GATX. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of GATX. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GATX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.3%, whose default value for GATX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GATX, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GATX.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GATX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GATX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for GATX.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GATX. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GATX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GATX are equal to 407.7%.

Life of production assets of 18.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GATX operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GATX is equal to -21.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1347 million for GATX - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.242 million for GATX is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GATX at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.


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Stock chart of GATX Financial statements of GATX Annual reports of GATX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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