Intrinsic value of GAMCO Investors Cl A - GBL

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$29.90

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as GBL.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GBL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.35
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  353
  360
  368
  378
  388
  400
  413
  427
  442
  459
  476
  495
  515
  537
  560
  584
  609
  636
  665
  695
  727
  761
  796
  834
  873
  915
  959
  1,005
  1,053
  1,104
  1,158
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  221
  227
  232
  239
  246
  254
  263
  272
  282
  293
  305
  317
  330
  344
  359
  375
  391
  409
  428
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  563
  590
  618
  648
  679
  712
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  161
  221
  227
  232
  239
  246
  254
  263
  272
  282
  293
  305
  317
  330
  344
  359
  375
  391
  409
  428
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  563
  590
  618
  648
  679
  712
Operating income, $m
  192
  139
  142
  145
  150
  154
  159
  164
  170
  177
  183
  191
  198
  207
  215
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406
  425
  446
EBITDA, $m
  193
  139
  142
  145
  150
  154
  159
  164
  170
  177
  183
  191
  198
  207
  215
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406
  425
  446
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  8
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  182
  130
  141
  145
  149
  153
  158
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  196
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
  380
  399
  418
  438
Tax expense, $m
  65
  35
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
Net income, $m
  117
  95
  103
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  156
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  149
  111
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  270
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  270
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.239
  3.243
  3.228
  3.231
  3.233
  3.226
  3.227
  3.235
  3.226
  3.232
  3.238
  3.235
  3.239
  3.235
  3.237
  3.244
  3.239
  3.245
  3.244
  3.233
  3.231
  3.238
  3.236
  3.245
  3.233
  3.245
  3.240
  3.242
  3.240
  3.238
  3.244
Average production assets, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
Total debt, $m
  239
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  139
  150
  161
  172
  184
  197
  211
  225
  240
Total liabilities, $m
  316
  100
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  293
  307
  322
Total equity, $m
  -167
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  149
  111
  113
  117
  120
  123
  128
  132
  137
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  214
  224
  234
  246
  258
  270
  282
  296
  310
  326
  341
  358
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.431
  1.620
  1.790
  1.970
  2.160
  2.360
  2.570
  2.780
  3.000
  3.210
  3.430
  3.640
  3.850
  4.050
  4.250
  4.450
  4.640
  4.830
  5.010
  5.180
  5.350
  5.510
  5.670
  5.810
  5.960
  6.100
  6.230
  6.360
  6.480
  6.590
  6.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.899
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  117
  95
  103
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  156
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  115
  95
  103
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  156
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  116
  96
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  296
  311
  326
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  115
  96
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  296
  311
  326
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -75
  -216
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -11
  298
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -86
  82
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  -120
  106
  109
  113
  116
  120
  125
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  158
  164
  172
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -109
  -218
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
  339
Discount rate, %
 
  7.20
  7.56
  7.94
  8.33
  8.75
  9.19
  9.65
  10.13
  10.64
  11.17
  11.73
  12.31
  12.93
  13.58
  14.26
  14.97
  15.72
  16.50
  17.33
  18.19
  19.10
  20.06
  21.06
  22.11
  23.22
  24.38
  25.60
  26.88
  28.22
  29.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  92
  87
  82
  76
  71
  65
  60
  54
  48
  43
  37
  32
  28
  23
  19
  16
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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GAMCO Investors, Inc. is a publicly owned holding investment manager. The firm also provides wealth management, investment advisory, institutional research, brokerage, dealer, underwriting, and distribution services to its clients. It provides its services to individuals including high net worth individuals, corporate pension and profit-sharing plans, foundations, endowments, jointly trust plans, municipalities, and investment companies. The firm, through its subsidiaries, manages separate client-focused equity, fixed income, and balanced portfolios. It also launches equity, fixed income, and balanced mutual funds and manages equity mutual funds for its clients. Through its subsidiaries, the firm invests in the public equity and fixed income markets across the globe. It invests in value stocks of companies. The firm employs fundamental analysis with a focus on bottom-up stock picking approach to create its portfolios. It conducts in-house research to make its investments. The firm was founded in 1976 and is based in Rye, New York with additional offices in Greenwich, Connecticut; Bannockburn, Illinois; and Tokyo, Japan. GAMCO Investors, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of GGCP, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GAMCO Investors Cl A (GBL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.5
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book -5.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity -143.1%
Total Debt to Equity -143.1%
Interest Coverage 18
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 98.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.5%
Return On Total Capital 212.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 85%
Return On Equity -52.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 2.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.2%
EBITDA Margin 55%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.1%
Operating Margin 54.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 51.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.6%
Net Profit Margin 33.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
Effective Tax Rate 35.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
Payout Ratio 1.7%

GBL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GBL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $353 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GAMCO Investors Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of GAMCO Investors Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GBL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.2%, whose default value for GBL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GAMCO Investors Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GAMCO Investors Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GBL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GBL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for GAMCO Investors Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GAMCO Investors Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GBL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GBL are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GAMCO Investors Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GBL is equal to -11.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-167 million for GAMCO Investors Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.335 million for GAMCO Investors Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GAMCO Investors Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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Stock chart of GBL Financial statements of GBL Annual reports of GBL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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