Intrinsic value of GAMCO Investors Cl A - GBL

Previous Close

$28.82

  Intrinsic Value

$11.56

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

Previous close

$28.82

 
Intrinsic value

$11.56

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as GBL.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GBL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.35
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
Revenue, $m
  353
  370
  388
  407
  426
  447
  469
  492
  516
  541
  568
  596
  625
  656
  689
  723
  759
  796
  836
  877
  921
  967
  1,015
  1,066
  1,119
  1,174
  1,233
  1,294
  1,359
  1,427
  1,498
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  228
  238
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  317
  333
  349
  366
  385
  404
  424
  445
  467
  490
  514
  540
  566
  595
  624
  655
  688
  722
  758
  796
  836
  878
  921
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  161
  228
  238
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  317
  333
  349
  366
  385
  404
  424
  445
  467
  490
  514
  540
  566
  595
  624
  655
  688
  722
  758
  796
  836
  878
  921
Operating income, $m
  192
  142
  149
  157
  164
  172
  181
  189
  199
  208
  219
  229
  241
  253
  265
  278
  292
  307
  322
  338
  355
  372
  391
  410
  431
  452
  475
  498
  523
  549
  577
EBITDA, $m
  193
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
  308
  324
  340
  357
  374
  393
  413
  433
  455
  477
  501
  526
  552
  580
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  10
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
Earnings before tax, $m
  182
  133
  148
  155
  163
  170
  179
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
  316
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  422
  443
  465
  488
  512
  537
  564
Tax expense, $m
  65
  36
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  103
  109
  114
  120
  125
  132
  138
  145
  152
Net income, $m
  117
  97
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  293
  308
  323
  339
  356
  374
  392
  412

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  149
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  284
  299
  313
  329
  345
  363
  381
  400
  420
  441
  463
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  284
  299
  313
  329
  345
  363
  381
  400
  420
  441
  463
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.239
  3.246
  3.233
  3.230
  3.227
  3.239
  3.234
  3.237
  3.245
  3.240
  3.246
  3.239
  3.238
  3.232
  3.235
  3.242
  3.244
  3.236
  3.240
  3.236
  3.243
  3.234
  3.243
  3.240
  3.243
  3.234
  3.236
  3.235
  3.236
  3.236
  3.235
Average production assets, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
Working capital, $m
  0
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
Total debt, $m
  239
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  60
  66
  73
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  124
  134
  144
  155
  167
  179
  192
  205
  219
  234
  249
  266
  283
  301
  319
  339
Total liabilities, $m
  316
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  311
  326
  343
  360
  378
  396
  416
Total equity, $m
  -167
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  149
  114
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  152
  159
  167
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  284
  299
  313
  329
  346
  362
  381
  400
  420
  440
  462
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.431
  2.260
  2.570
  2.870
  3.150
  3.420
  3.680
  3.930
  4.170
  4.390
  4.610
  4.810
  5.010
  5.200
  5.380
  5.550
  5.710
  5.870
  6.020
  6.160
  6.290
  6.420
  6.540
  6.660
  6.770
  6.880
  6.980
  7.070
  7.160
  7.250
  7.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.899
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  117
  97
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  293
  308
  323
  339
  356
  374
  392
  412
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  115
  98
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  159
  166
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  310
  326
  342
  359
  377
  395
  415
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  116
  100
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  287
  302
  316
  332
  349
  366
  384
  403
  423
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Free cash flow, $m
  115
  99
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  224
  235
  246
  259
  271
  285
  299
  314
  329
  345
  362
  380
  399
  419
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -75
  -213
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -11
  121
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -86
  -92
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  7
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  284
  298
  313
  328
  345
  362
  380
  398
  418
  439
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -109
  -218
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -171
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  269
  283
  297
  311
  327
  343
  360
  378
  396
  416
  437
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -157
  96
  90
  85
  78
  72
  65
  58
  52
  45
  39
  33
  27
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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GAMCO Investors, Inc. is a holding company. The Company is a provider of investment advisory services to open and closed-end funds, institutional and private wealth management investors principally in the United States. The Company operates through the investment advisory and asset management business segment. It manages assets on a discretionary basis and invests in securities through various investment styles. Its assets under management are organized into three groups: Institutional and Private Wealth Management; Open and Closed-End Funds, and the GAMCO International SICAV (SICAV). The Company provides advisory services to a range of investors, including corporate retirement plans, foundations, endowments and private wealth clients, and also serves as sub-advisor to third-party investment funds, including registered investment companies. As of December 31, 2016, it had provided advisory services to 21 open-end funds, 15 closed-end funds and one exchange traded managed fund.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GAMCO Investors Cl A (GBL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.3
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book -5.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity -143.1%
Total Debt to Equity -143.1%
Interest Coverage 18
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 98.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.5%
Return On Total Capital 212.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 85%
Return On Equity -52.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 2.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.2%
EBITDA Margin 55%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.1%
Operating Margin 54.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 51.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.6%
Net Profit Margin 33.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
Effective Tax Rate 35.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
Payout Ratio 1.7%

GBL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GBL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $353 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GAMCO Investors Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of GAMCO Investors Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GBL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for GBL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GAMCO Investors Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GAMCO Investors Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GBL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GBL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for GAMCO Investors Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GAMCO Investors Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GBL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GBL are equal to 1.1%.

Life of production assets of 4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GAMCO Investors Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GBL is equal to -11.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-167 million for GAMCO Investors Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.301 million for GAMCO Investors Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GAMCO Investors Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ [$$] Court Upholds Dismissal of Investor's Lawsuit Against iHeart   [Oct-12-17 05:30PM  The Wall Street Journal]
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▶ The Gabelli Global Content & Connectivity Fund   [Sep-06-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Gamco's Haverty Says China Is Biggest Risk for Apple   [Sep-05-17 05:12PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ [$$] ValueAct and KKR Look Compatible   [Aug-26-17 12:01AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Gamco Investors posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 03:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Associated Capital Group Forms Gabelli Private Equity Partners   [Aug-03-17 06:56PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Activist Wants New Kind of Board at Hain Celestial   [Jul-14-17 11:18PM  Barrons.com]
▶ The GDL Fund Series B Preferred Shares   [May-23-17 04:03PM  Business Wire]
▶ Mario Gabelli's three entertainment bets   [May-05-17 07:11AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Gamco Investors posts 1Q profit   [May-03-17 05:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Gabelli's infrastructure plays   [Apr-28-17 01:39PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ [$$] Investor Periam Wants More Say in EnerNOC   [Apr-22-17 12:51AM  Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] Blue Harbour Group Has Bought Into WebMD   [Mar-11-17 12:35AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ The Gabelli Dividend Growth Fund Expands Investment Team   [Mar-01-17 01:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Gamco Joins Fight Against Lactalis's Parmalat Bid   [Feb-15-17 06:37AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Gamco Investors posts 4Q profit   [Feb-07-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ GAMCO Comments on Sevcon Proxy Contest   [Jan-30-17 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Banc of California Is Undervalued, Says Legion   [Jan-28-17 12:44AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ GAMCO Tenders Federal-Mogul Shares   [Jan-18-17 12:32PM  Business Wire]
▶ The Morning Risk Report: Activists Need not Attempt Proxy Access   [Dec-16-16 07:22AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Gabelli Funds Launches Gabelli Media Mogul NextShares   [Nov-29-16 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Starboard Value Ponders Perrigo Assets   [Nov-19-16 01:40AM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of GBL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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