Intrinsic value of Greenbrier - GBX

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$44.45

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$44.45

 
Intrinsic value

$161.61

 
Up/down potential

+264%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GBX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.88
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,680
  2,734
  2,796
  2,868
  2,949
  3,038
  3,137
  3,243
  3,359
  3,484
  3,617
  3,760
  3,913
  4,075
  4,248
  4,431
  4,626
  4,831
  5,048
  5,278
  5,521
  5,777
  6,046
  6,331
  6,631
  6,946
  7,279
  7,628
  7,997
  8,384
  8,791
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,933
  1,977
  2,028
  2,085
  2,148
  2,217
  2,292
  2,374
  2,462
  2,556
  2,652
  2,760
  2,875
  2,997
  3,126
  3,263
  3,408
  3,561
  3,723
  3,894
  4,075
  4,265
  4,466
  4,677
  4,900
  5,134
  5,381
  5,641
  5,914
  6,201
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  396
  406
  416
  426
  437
  448
  459
  470
  482
  494
  506
  519
  532
  545
  559
  573
  587
  602
  617
  633
  648
  665
  681
  698
  716
  734
  752
  771
  790
  810
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,271
  2,329
  2,383
  2,444
  2,511
  2,585
  2,665
  2,751
  2,844
  2,944
  3,050
  3,158
  3,279
  3,407
  3,542
  3,685
  3,836
  3,995
  4,163
  4,340
  4,527
  4,723
  4,930
  5,147
  5,375
  5,616
  5,868
  6,133
  6,412
  6,704
  7,011
Operating income, $m
  409
  405
  414
  425
  438
  454
  472
  492
  515
  540
  567
  601
  634
  669
  706
  746
  790
  836
  885
  938
  994
  1,053
  1,117
  1,184
  1,255
  1,331
  1,411
  1,496
  1,585
  1,680
  1,780
EBITDA, $m
  472
  447
  456
  468
  483
  500
  519
  541
  565
  592
  621
  652
  687
  724
  764
  807
  853
  902
  954
  1,010
  1,069
  1,132
  1,199
  1,270
  1,345
  1,425
  1,510
  1,599
  1,694
  1,794
  1,900
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
Earnings before tax, $m
  395
  395
  403
  413
  426
  440
  457
  476
  497
  521
  547
  579
  610
  643
  678
  716
  757
  801
  848
  898
  951
  1,007
  1,067
  1,131
  1,199
  1,271
  1,347
  1,427
  1,513
  1,603
  1,698
Tax expense, $m
  112
  107
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  129
  134
  141
  148
  156
  165
  173
  183
  193
  204
  216
  229
  242
  257
  272
  288
  305
  324
  343
  364
  385
  408
  433
  458
Net income, $m
  183
  288
  294
  302
  311
  321
  334
  348
  363
  380
  399
  423
  445
  469
  495
  523
  553
  585
  619
  655
  694
  735
  779
  826
  875
  928
  983
  1,042
  1,104
  1,170
  1,240

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  223
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,836
  1,645
  1,683
  1,726
  1,774
  1,828
  1,887
  1,951
  2,021
  2,096
  2,176
  2,262
  2,354
  2,452
  2,556
  2,666
  2,783
  2,907
  3,038
  3,176
  3,322
  3,476
  3,638
  3,809
  3,990
  4,179
  4,379
  4,590
  4,811
  5,044
  5,290
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,613
  1,645
  1,683
  1,726
  1,774
  1,828
  1,887
  1,951
  2,021
  2,096
  2,176
  2,262
  2,354
  2,452
  2,556
  2,666
  2,783
  2,907
  3,038
  3,176
  3,322
  3,476
  3,638
  3,809
  3,990
  4,179
  4,379
  4,590
  4,811
  5,044
  5,290
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.662
  1.662
  1.661
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
  1.662
Average production assets, $m
  182
  186
  190
  195
  201
  207
  213
  221
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  289
  301
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  393
  411
  430
  451
  472
  495
  519
  544
  570
  598
Working capital, $m
  0
  -227
  -232
  -238
  -245
  -252
  -260
  -269
  -279
  -289
  -300
  -312
  -325
  -338
  -353
  -368
  -384
  -401
  -419
  -438
  -458
  -479
  -502
  -525
  -550
  -577
  -604
  -633
  -664
  -696
  -730
Total debt, $m
  302
  320
  343
  369
  398
  430
  465
  503
  545
  589
  637
  688
  743
  801
  863
  929
  999
  1,072
  1,150
  1,233
  1,320
  1,411
  1,508
  1,610
  1,718
  1,831
  1,950
  2,076
  2,208
  2,346
  2,493
Total liabilities, $m
  961
  980
  1,003
  1,029
  1,058
  1,090
  1,125
  1,163
  1,205
  1,249
  1,297
  1,348
  1,403
  1,461
  1,523
  1,589
  1,659
  1,732
  1,810
  1,893
  1,980
  2,071
  2,168
  2,270
  2,378
  2,491
  2,610
  2,736
  2,868
  3,006
  3,153
Total equity, $m
  874
  664
  680
  697
  717
  739
  762
  788
  817
  847
  879
  914
  951
  991
  1,033
  1,077
  1,124
  1,174
  1,227
  1,283
  1,342
  1,404
  1,470
  1,539
  1,612
  1,688
  1,769
  1,854
  1,944
  2,038
  2,137
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,835
  1,644
  1,683
  1,726
  1,775
  1,829
  1,887
  1,951
  2,022
  2,096
  2,176
  2,262
  2,354
  2,452
  2,556
  2,666
  2,783
  2,906
  3,037
  3,176
  3,322
  3,475
  3,638
  3,809
  3,990
  4,179
  4,379
  4,590
  4,812
  5,044
  5,290
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.346
  0.480
  0.500
  0.530
  0.550
  0.580
  0.610
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.750
  0.780
  0.810
  0.840
  0.860
  0.890
  0.910
  0.940
  0.960
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  183
  288
  294
  302
  311
  321
  334
  348
  363
  380
  399
  423
  445
  469
  495
  523
  553
  585
  619
  655
  694
  735
  779
  826
  875
  928
  983
  1,042
  1,104
  1,170
  1,240
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  63
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  48
  50
  52
  53
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
Funds from operations, $m
  315
  330
  336
  345
  355
  367
  381
  396
  413
  432
  453
  474
  498
  524
  553
  583
  616
  650
  688
  727
  769
  814
  861
  912
  965
  1,022
  1,082
  1,146
  1,213
  1,284
  1,359
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Cash from operations, $m
  332
  181
  342
  351
  362
  374
  389
  405
  423
  442
  464
  486
  511
  538
  567
  598
  632
  667
  706
  746
  789
  835
  884
  935
  990
  1,048
  1,110
  1,175
  1,243
  1,316
  1,393
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
New CAPEX, $m
  -139
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -56
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
Free cash flow, $m
  276
  141
  300
  308
  317
  328
  341
  355
  371
  388
  407
  427
  449
  474
  500
  528
  558
  591
  625
  662
  701
  743
  787
  834
  884
  937
  993
  1,052
  1,115
  1,181
  1,251
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -73
  18
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -199
  18
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  73
  159
  323
  334
  346
  360
  376
  393
  412
  433
  455
  478
  504
  532
  562
  594
  628
  664
  703
  744
  788
  834
  884
  936
  991
  1,050
  1,112
  1,177
  1,247
  1,320
  1,397
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -141
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  223
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  369
  307
  316
  327
  339
  352
  367
  384
  402
  423
  443
  467
  492
  520
  549
  581
  614
  650
  688
  729
  772
  818
  867
  918
  973
  1,031
  1,092
  1,157
  1,226
  1,298
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  353
  281
  275
  269
  262
  256
  248
  240
  231
  222
  211
  199
  187
  175
  161
  148
  134
  120
  106
  93
  80
  68
  57
  47
  38
  30
  23
  18
  13
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America and Europe. Its Manufacturing Segment offers double-stack intermodal railcars; tank cars; auto-max railcar, and multi-max auto rack and flat cars for automotive transportation; conventional railcars, such as boxcars, covered hopper cars, center partition cars, bulkhead flat cars, and solid waste service flat cars; and pressurized tank cars, non-pressurized tank cars, coil cars, coal cars, gondolas, sliding wall cars, and automobile transporter cars; and marine vessels, including conventional deck barges, double-hull tank barges, railcar/deck barges, barges for aggregates, and other heavy industrial products and dump barges. The company’s Wheels & Parts segment provides wheel services, including reconditioning of wheels and axles, new axle machining and finishing, and axle downsizing; and reconditions and manufactures railcar cushioning units, couplers, yokes, side frames, bolsters, and various other parts, as well as produces roofs, doors, and associated parts for boxcars. Its Leasing & Services segment offers operating leases and ‘by the mile’ leases for a fleet of approximately 8,900 railcars; and management services comprising railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, fleet management, administration, and railcar remarketing. This segment owns or provides management services to a fleet of approximately 273,000 railcars for railroads, shippers, carriers, institutional investors, and other leasing and transportation companies. The company’s GBW Joint Venture segment offers heavy railcar repair and refurbishment, maintenance, and retrofitting services. This segment operates a network of 30 repair shops in North America. It serves railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers, and transportation companies. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Greenbrier (GBX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 6.8
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 31.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 34.6%
Total Debt to Equity 34.6%
Interest Coverage 34
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Return On Total Capital 16%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Return On Equity 22.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.9%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
EBITDA Margin 17.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Operating Margin 15.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Effective Tax Rate 28.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.4%
Payout Ratio 12.6%

GBX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GBX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2680 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Greenbrier. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Greenbrier. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GBX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GBX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Greenbrier, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Greenbrier.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GBX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $386 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GBX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Greenbrier.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Greenbrier. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GBX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GBX are equal to 6.8%.

Life of production assets of 3.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Greenbrier operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GBX is equal to -8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $874 million for Greenbrier - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.306 million for Greenbrier is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Greenbrier at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.


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Stock chart of GBX Financial statements of GBX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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