Intrinsic value of GAIN Capital Holdings - GCAP

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$5.73

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$5.73

 
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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as GCAP.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GCAP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.50
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  412
  445
  455
  467
  480
  494
  510
  528
  546
  567
  588
  612
  637
  663
  691
  721
  753
  786
  821
  859
  898
  940
  984
  1,030
  1,079
  1,130
  1,184
  1,241
  1,301
  1,364
  1,430
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  382
  391
  401
  412
  425
  438
  453
  469
  486
  505
  521
  542
  565
  589
  614
  641
  670
  700
  732
  765
  801
  838
  878
  919
  963
  1,009
  1,058
  1,109
  1,162
  1,219
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  355
  382
  391
  401
  412
  425
  438
  453
  469
  486
  505
  521
  542
  565
  589
  614
  641
  670
  700
  732
  765
  801
  838
  878
  919
  963
  1,009
  1,058
  1,109
  1,162
  1,219
Operating income, $m
  58
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  84
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  211
EBITDA, $m
  87
  86
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
  252
  265
  277
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  6
  -37
  -36
  -36
  -35
  -35
  -34
  -34
  -33
  -32
  -31
  -31
  -30
  -29
  -28
  -27
  -26
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -3
Earnings before tax, $m
  47
  56
  101
  102
  103
  105
  107
  109
  111
  113
  116
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  142
  146
  150
  154
  159
  164
  169
  175
  181
  187
  193
  200
  207
  215
Tax expense, $m
  10
  15
  27
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
Net income, $m
  35
  41
  73
  74
  75
  77
  78
  79
  81
  83
  85
  89
  91
  93
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  113
  116
  120
  124
  128
  132
  136
  141
  146
  151
  157

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,180
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,430
  339
  346
  355
  365
  376
  389
  402
  416
  432
  448
  466
  485
  505
  526
  549
  573
  599
  626
  654
  684
  716
  749
  784
  822
  861
  902
  945
  991
  1,039
  1,089
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  250
  339
  346
  355
  365
  376
  389
  402
  416
  432
  448
  466
  485
  505
  526
  549
  573
  599
  626
  654
  684
  716
  749
  784
  822
  861
  902
  945
  991
  1,039
  1,089
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.648
  1.313
  1.315
  1.315
  1.315
  1.314
  1.311
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
  1.314
  1.313
  1.314
  1.312
  1.312
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
  1.314
  1.314
  1.313
  1.312
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
  1.313
Average production assets, $m
  113
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
  315
  330
Working capital, $m
  0
  -1,115
  -1,141
  -1,170
  -1,203
  -1,239
  -1,279
  -1,323
  -1,370
  -1,421
  -1,475
  -1,534
  -1,596
  -1,662
  -1,733
  -1,807
  -1,887
  -1,970
  -2,059
  -2,153
  -2,252
  -2,356
  -2,466
  -2,582
  -2,704
  -2,833
  -2,969
  -3,111
  -3,261
  -3,419
  -3,586
Total debt, $m
  125
  -692
  -685
  -677
  -668
  -658
  -647
  -635
  -622
  -609
  -594
  -578
  -561
  -543
  -523
  -503
  -481
  -458
  -434
  -408
  -381
  -353
  -323
  -291
  -258
  -222
  -185
  -146
  -105
  -62
  -17
Total liabilities, $m
  1,136
  305
  312
  320
  329
  339
  350
  362
  375
  388
  403
  419
  436
  454
  474
  494
  516
  539
  563
  589
  616
  644
  674
  706
  739
  775
  812
  851
  892
  935
  980
Total equity, $m
  294
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,430
  339
  347
  356
  366
  377
  389
  402
  417
  431
  448
  466
  484
  504
  527
  549
  573
  599
  626
  654
  684
  716
  749
  784
  821
  861
  902
  946
  991
  1,039
  1,089
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.425
  -20.440
  -19.770
  -19.050
  -18.290
  -17.480
  -16.650
  -15.810
  -14.960
  -14.100
  -13.240
  -12.400
  -11.560
  -10.740
  -9.940
  -9.160
  -8.400
  -7.660
  -6.940
  -6.250
  -5.580
  -4.930
  -4.310
  -3.710
  -3.140
  -2.580
  -2.060
  -1.550
  -1.060
  -0.600
  -0.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  -3.544
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  41
  73
  74
  75
  77
  78
  79
  81
  83
  85
  89
  91
  93
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  113
  116
  120
  124
  128
  132
  136
  141
  146
  151
  157
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  29
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
Funds from operations, $m
  172
  65
  98
  99
  101
  103
  105
  107
  110
  112
  115
  117
  120
  124
  127
  131
  135
  140
  144
  149
  154
  160
  165
  171
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
Change in working capital, $m
  47
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
Cash from operations, $m
  125
  108
  123
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  275
  287
  300
  313
  327
  341
  356
  372
  389
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -31
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
Free cash flow, $m
  94
  86
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -814
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -8
  456
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  -358
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  73
  -728
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  341
  356
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  12
  -821
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,093
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  157
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  271
  282
  295
  308
  322
  336
  351
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  98
  98
  97
  95
  93
  90
  87
  84
  80
  75
  70
  65
  60
  54
  49
  44
  39
  34
  29
  25
  21
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

GAIN Capital Holdings, Inc. provides trading services and solutions to retail and institutional customers worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Retail, Institutional, and Futures. It specializes in over-the-counter (OTC) and exchange-traded markets. The company offers access to a range of financial products, including spot foreign exchange (forex), precious metals trading, and contracts for differences (CFD) on currencies, commodities, indices, individual equities, bonds, and interest rate products; and spread bets and OTC options on forex, as well as supports the trading of exchange-traded futures and options. It offers services to retail customers through FOREX.com and Cityindex.com, as well as through introducing brokers and white label partners. The company also provides agency execution services; and access to markets and self-directed trading in foreign exchange, commodities, equities, options, and futures to institutional customers through an electronic communications network, as well as offers touch services. In addition, it operates GTX platform, an electronic communications network that provides liquidity in spot and forward foreign exchange and precious metals to buy-side and sell-side firms, including banks, brokers, hedge funds, commodity trading advisors, and asset managers. Further, the company provides execution and risk management services for exchange-traded futures and futures options on U.S. and European futures and options exchanges. As of December 31, 2015, it had 173,738 funded retail accounts. GAIN Capital Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Bedminster, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GAIN Capital Holdings (GCAP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.9
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 42.5%
Total Debt to Equity 42.5%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Total Capital 8.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 11.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.7%
EBITDA Margin 19.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Operating Margin 13.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Net Profit Margin 8.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Effective Tax Rate 21.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Payout Ratio 28.6%

GCAP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GCAP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $436 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GAIN Capital Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of GAIN Capital Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GCAP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GCAP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GAIN Capital Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GAIN Capital Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GCAP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GCAP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for GAIN Capital Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GAIN Capital Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GCAP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GCAP are equal to 23.1%.

Life of production assets of 4.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GAIN Capital Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GCAP is equal to -250.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $306 million for GAIN Capital Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.761 million for GAIN Capital Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GAIN Capital Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ FOREX.com Launches New Web Trading Platform   [May-31-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Gain Capital reports 1Q loss   [May-04-17 05:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ GAIN Capital to Report First Quarter 2017 Results   [Apr-19-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ GAIN Capital Announces Monthly Metrics for March 2017   [Apr-10-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
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▶ What Hedge Funds Think about Gain Capital Holdings Inc (GCAP)?   [Dec-11-16 04:53AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ GAIN Capital Responds to FCA's Consultation Paper   [Dec-06-16 11:31AM  PR Newswire]
▶ GTX FX ECN Sets Volume Record   [Dec-01-16 12:39PM  PR Newswire]
▶ GTX Hires Edward Brown to Run Swap Execution Facility   [Nov-21-16 02:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ GTX to Launch Tokyo Matching Engine January 31   [Nov-16-16 08:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ GAIN Capital launches ForeignExchange.com   [09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ City Index tightens major FX spreads   [Oct-26-16 09:20AM  PR Newswire]
▶ GAIN Capital to Report Third Quarter 2016 Results   [Oct-24-16 08:01AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] E*Trade, Scottrade: M&A Speculation   [Oct-07-16 03:33PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ GTX to Launch London and Tokyo Matching Engines   [Sep-28-16 08:11AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of GCAP Financial statements of GCAP Annual reports of GCAP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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