Intrinsic value of Geospace Technologies - GEOS

Previous Close

$13.72

  Intrinsic Value

$4.85

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

  Value-price divergence*

-5%

Previous close

$13.72

 
Intrinsic value

$4.85

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-5%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GEOS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -27.06
  40.00
  36.50
  33.35
  30.52
  27.96
  25.67
  23.60
  21.74
  20.07
  18.56
  17.20
  15.98
  14.89
  13.90
  13.01
  12.21
  11.49
  10.84
  10.25
  9.73
  9.26
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
Revenue, $m
  62
  87
  118
  158
  206
  264
  332
  410
  499
  599
  710
  832
  966
  1,109
  1,263
  1,428
  1,602
  1,786
  1,980
  2,183
  2,395
  2,616
  2,847
  3,088
  3,338
  3,598
  3,869
  4,150
  4,441
  4,745
  5,060
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  71
  98
  130
  170
  217
  273
  337
  411
  493
  585
  685
  795
  913
  1,040
  1,175
  1,318
  1,470
  1,629
  1,796
  1,971
  2,153
  2,343
  2,541
  2,747
  2,961
  3,184
  3,415
  3,655
  3,905
  4,165
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
Total operating expenses, $m
  118
  142
  170
  204
  246
  295
  353
  419
  495
  579
  673
  776
  888
  1,008
  1,137
  1,275
  1,420
  1,575
  1,737
  1,906
  2,084
  2,269
  2,462
  2,663
  2,872
  3,089
  3,315
  3,549
  3,793
  4,046
  4,310
Operating income, $m
  -56
  -55
  -52
  -46
  -40
  -31
  -21
  -9
  4
  20
  37
  57
  78
  101
  126
  153
  181
  211
  243
  276
  311
  347
  385
  425
  466
  509
  554
  600
  648
  699
  751
EBITDA, $m
  -36
  -43
  -35
  -25
  -11
  5
  24
  47
  73
  102
  135
  171
  210
  253
  299
  349
  401
  456
  514
  575
  639
  706
  776
  848
  924
  1,002
  1,084
  1,169
  1,257
  1,349
  1,445
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
Earnings before tax, $m
  -55
  -55
  -52
  -47
  -40
  -32
  -23
  -11
  2
  17
  34
  53
  73
  96
  120
  145
  173
  202
  232
  264
  298
  333
  369
  407
  447
  489
  532
  576
  623
  671
  722
Tax expense, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  5
  9
  14
  20
  26
  32
  39
  47
  54
  63
  71
  80
  90
  100
  110
  121
  132
  144
  156
  168
  181
  195
Net income, $m
  -46
  -55
  -52
  -47
  -40
  -32
  -23
  -11
  2
  13
  25
  39
  54
  70
  87
  106
  126
  147
  169
  193
  217
  243
  270
  297
  326
  357
  388
  421
  455
  490
  527

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  255
  303
  414
  552
  721
  923
  1,159
  1,433
  1,745
  2,095
  2,483
  2,911
  3,376
  3,878
  4,417
  4,992
  5,601
  6,245
  6,921
  7,631
  8,373
  9,148
  9,956
  10,797
  11,672
  12,581
  13,527
  14,509
  15,530
  16,591
  17,694
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  217
  303
  414
  552
  721
  923
  1,159
  1,433
  1,745
  2,095
  2,483
  2,911
  3,376
  3,878
  4,417
  4,992
  5,601
  6,245
  6,921
  7,631
  8,373
  9,148
  9,956
  10,797
  11,672
  12,581
  13,527
  14,509
  15,530
  16,591
  17,694
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.286
  0.287
  0.285
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
Average production assets, $m
  85
  119
  162
  217
  283
  362
  455
  562
  684
  821
  974
  1,141
  1,324
  1,521
  1,732
  1,957
  2,196
  2,449
  2,714
  2,992
  3,283
  3,587
  3,904
  4,234
  4,577
  4,933
  5,304
  5,689
  6,089
  6,505
  6,938
Working capital, $m
  164
  43
  59
  79
  103
  132
  166
  205
  249
  300
  355
  416
  483
  555
  632
  714
  801
  893
  990
  1,091
  1,197
  1,308
  1,424
  1,544
  1,669
  1,799
  1,934
  2,075
  2,221
  2,372
  2,530
Total debt, $m
  0
  4
  10
  17
  26
  36
  48
  62
  78
  96
  116
  137
  161
  187
  214
  244
  275
  307
  342
  378
  416
  456
  497
  540
  584
  631
  679
  729
  781
  835
  891
Total liabilities, $m
  10
  15
  21
  28
  37
  47
  59
  73
  89
  107
  127
  148
  172
  198
  225
  255
  286
  318
  353
  389
  427
  467
  508
  551
  595
  642
  690
  740
  792
  846
  902
Total equity, $m
  244
  288
  393
  524
  684
  876
  1,100
  1,360
  1,656
  1,988
  2,357
  2,762
  3,204
  3,681
  4,192
  4,737
  5,316
  5,926
  6,568
  7,242
  7,946
  8,682
  9,448
  10,247
  11,077
  11,940
  12,837
  13,769
  14,738
  15,744
  16,791
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  254
  303
  414
  552
  721
  923
  1,159
  1,433
  1,745
  2,095
  2,484
  2,910
  3,376
  3,879
  4,417
  4,992
  5,602
  6,244
  6,921
  7,631
  8,373
  9,149
  9,956
  10,798
  11,672
  12,582
  13,527
  14,509
  15,530
  16,590
  17,693
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -46
  -55
  -52
  -47
  -40
  -32
  -23
  -11
  2
  13
  25
  39
  54
  70
  87
  106
  126
  147
  169
  193
  217
  243
  270
  297
  326
  357
  388
  421
  455
  490
  527
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  12
  16
  22
  28
  36
  45
  56
  68
  82
  97
  114
  132
  152
  173
  196
  220
  245
  271
  299
  328
  359
  390
  423
  458
  493
  530
  569
  609
  651
  694
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  -43
  -35
  -25
  -12
  4
  23
  45
  70
  95
  122
  153
  186
  222
  261
  302
  346
  392
  441
  492
  546
  602
  660
  721
  784
  850
  918
  990
  1,064
  1,141
  1,221
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  12
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
Cash from operations, $m
  -2
  -56
  -51
  -45
  -36
  -25
  -11
  6
  25
  45
  67
  92
  119
  150
  183
  220
  258
  300
  344
  390
  439
  491
  544
  601
  659
  720
  783
  849
  918
  989
  1,063
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -22
  -28
  -36
  -45
  -56
  -68
  -82
  -97
  -114
  -132
  -152
  -173
  -196
  -220
  -245
  -271
  -299
  -328
  -359
  -390
  -423
  -458
  -493
  -530
  -569
  -609
  -651
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -34
  -43
  -54
  -66
  -79
  -93
  -107
  -122
  -137
  -152
  -168
  -182
  -197
  -211
  -225
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -291
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -343
  -357
  -371
  -385
  -400
  -416
  -433
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -43
  -55
  -70
  -88
  -107
  -129
  -152
  -178
  -205
  -234
  -265
  -296
  -329
  -363
  -398
  -435
  -472
  -510
  -549
  -590
  -632
  -676
  -720
  -766
  -815
  -864
  -915
  -969
  -1,025
  -1,084
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -98
  -107
  -115
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -173
  -177
  -179
  -180
  -179
  -176
  -172
  -166
  -159
  -151
  -141
  -131
  -120
  -107
  -94
  -81
  -66
  -51
  -36
  -20
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  4
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  137
  157
  178
  200
  224
  247
  271
  294
  320
  344
  367
  388
  407
  424
  439
  452
  463
  473
  481
  487
  493
  497
  501
  504
  506
  509
  511
  514
  517
  520
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  141
  163
  185
  209
  234
  259
  285
  310
  338
  364
  389
  412
  433
  451
  468
  483
  496
  508
  517
  525
  533
  538
  544
  549
  552
  557
  561
  566
  571
  576
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -12
  43
  56
  70
  85
  102
  119
  138
  157
  176
  196
  215
  235
  253
  272
  290
  307
  324
  341
  358
  374
  391
  407
  424
  441
  458
  476
  495
  515
  535
  556
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  46
  -137
  -157
  -178
  -200
  -224
  -247
  -271
  -296
  -332
  -369
  -405
  -442
  -477
  -511
  -545
  -578
  -611
  -642
  -673
  -704
  -735
  -767
  -798
  -830
  -863
  -897
  -932
  -969
  -1,007
  -1,047
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -56
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -156
  -173
  -190
  -207
  -224
  -240
  -256
  -271
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -359
  -374
  -389
  -405
  -421
  -437
  -454
  -472
  -491
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -54
  -92
  -94
  -95
  -95
  -93
  -90
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -90
  -88
  -85
  -81
  -75
  -69
  -62
  -55
  -49
  -42
  -36
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  51.5
  29.1
  17.8
  11.5
  7.9
  5.6
  4.2
  3.2
  2.5
  2.0
  1.7
  1.4
  1.2
  1.0
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.6
  0.5
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.3
  0.3
  0.3

Geospace Technologies Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs and manufactures seismic instruments and equipment for the oil and gas industry in the United States, Canada, Colombia, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through two segments, Seismic and Non-Seismic. The Seismic segment offers land and marine nodal data acquisition systems; permanent land and seabed reservoir monitoring products and services; geophones and geophone strings; hydrophones; leader wires; connectors; telemetry cables; marine streamer retrieval and steering devices; and various other products. It also provides multi-component sensors; and seismic borehole acquisition systems. The Non-Seismic segment offers electronic pre-press products that employ direct thermal imaging and digital inkjet printing technologies targeted at the commercial graphics, industrial graphics, textile, and flexographic printing industries. This segment provides thermal imaging products for the commercial graphics industry; sensors and tools for vibration monitoring, mine safety application, and earthquake detection; cables for power and communication used in the offshore oil and gas, and offshore construction industries; water meter cables; and other specialty industrial cable and connector products. The company serves seismic contractors, and independent and government-owned oil and gas companies; direct users of equipment; specialized resellers; and specialty manufacturers, research institutions, and industrial product distributors. Geospace Technologies Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Geospace Technologies (GEOS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -91.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -45.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -27.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -45.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -16.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.2%
Return On Total Capital -17.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Return On Equity -17.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -30.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
EBITDA Margin -56.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.5%
Operating Margin -90.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -88.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.6%
Net Profit Margin -74.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Effective Tax Rate 16.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

GEOS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GEOS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $62 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Geospace Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Geospace Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GEOS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 40% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GEOS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Geospace Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Geospace Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GEOS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $69 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GEOS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Geospace Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Geospace Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GEOS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GEOS are equal to 137.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Geospace Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GEOS is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $244 million for Geospace Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.588 million for Geospace Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Geospace Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Geospace Technologies reports 2Q loss   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Geospace Technologies reports 1Q loss   [Feb-08-17 04:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ 2 Stocks Below Net Currrent Asset Value   [Dec-17  02:00PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Is Quantum Corp (QTM) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Nov-25  02:30PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of GEOS Financial statements of GEOS Annual reports of GEOS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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