Intrinsic value of Griffon - GFF

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$23.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$23.60

 
Intrinsic value

$12.46

 
Up/down potential

-47%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GFF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.93
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,957
  1,996
  2,042
  2,095
  2,153
  2,219
  2,290
  2,368
  2,453
  2,544
  2,641
  2,746
  2,857
  2,976
  3,102
  3,236
  3,378
  3,528
  3,686
  3,854
  4,031
  4,218
  4,415
  4,623
  4,842
  5,072
  5,315
  5,570
  5,839
  6,122
  6,420
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,896
  1,938
  1,987
  2,042
  2,103
  2,170
  2,242
  2,321
  2,406
  2,497
  2,558
  2,662
  2,772
  2,890
  3,014
  3,146
  3,286
  3,434
  3,590
  3,755
  3,929
  4,113
  4,307
  4,510
  4,725
  4,951
  5,189
  5,440
  5,703
  5,980
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,854
  1,896
  1,938
  1,987
  2,042
  2,103
  2,170
  2,242
  2,321
  2,406
  2,497
  2,558
  2,662
  2,772
  2,890
  3,014
  3,146
  3,286
  3,434
  3,590
  3,755
  3,929
  4,113
  4,307
  4,510
  4,725
  4,951
  5,189
  5,440
  5,703
  5,980
Operating income, $m
  104
  101
  104
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
  400
  419
  439
EBITDA, $m
  174
  181
  185
  190
  196
  202
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  249
  260
  270
  282
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
  506
  530
  556
  583
Interest expense (income), $m
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
Earnings before tax, $m
  53
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  154
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
Tax expense, $m
  23
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  32
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
Net income, $m
  30
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  73
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,782
  1,743
  1,783
  1,829
  1,881
  1,938
  2,000
  2,068
  2,142
  2,222
  2,307
  2,398
  2,495
  2,599
  2,709
  2,826
  2,950
  3,081
  3,220
  3,366
  3,521
  3,684
  3,856
  4,038
  4,229
  4,430
  4,642
  4,865
  5,100
  5,347
  5,607
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,709
  1,743
  1,783
  1,829
  1,881
  1,938
  2,000
  2,068
  2,142
  2,222
  2,307
  2,398
  2,495
  2,599
  2,709
  2,826
  2,950
  3,081
  3,220
  3,366
  3,521
  3,684
  3,856
  4,038
  4,229
  4,430
  4,642
  4,865
  5,100
  5,347
  5,607
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
  1.145
Average production assets, $m
  606
  617
  631
  647
  665
  686
  708
  732
  758
  786
  816
  848
  883
  920
  959
  1,000
  1,044
  1,090
  1,139
  1,191
  1,246
  1,303
  1,364
  1,428
  1,496
  1,567
  1,642
  1,721
  1,804
  1,892
  1,984
Working capital, $m
  463
  421
  431
  442
  454
  468
  483
  500
  518
  537
  557
  579
  603
  628
  655
  683
  713
  744
  778
  813
  851
  890
  932
  975
  1,022
  1,070
  1,121
  1,175
  1,232
  1,292
  1,355
Total debt, $m
  937
  942
  973
  1,009
  1,050
  1,095
  1,144
  1,198
  1,256
  1,319
  1,386
  1,458
  1,535
  1,617
  1,704
  1,796
  1,893
  1,997
  2,106
  2,222
  2,344
  2,473
  2,608
  2,752
  2,902
  3,061
  3,228
  3,405
  3,590
  3,785
  3,990
Total liabilities, $m
  1,371
  1,376
  1,407
  1,443
  1,484
  1,529
  1,578
  1,632
  1,690
  1,753
  1,820
  1,892
  1,969
  2,051
  2,138
  2,230
  2,327
  2,431
  2,540
  2,656
  2,778
  2,907
  3,042
  3,186
  3,336
  3,495
  3,662
  3,839
  4,024
  4,219
  4,424
Total equity, $m
  411
  368
  376
  386
  397
  409
  422
  436
  452
  469
  487
  506
  527
  548
  572
  596
  622
  650
  679
  710
  743
  777
  814
  852
  892
  935
  979
  1,027
  1,076
  1,128
  1,183
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,782
  1,744
  1,783
  1,829
  1,881
  1,938
  2,000
  2,068
  2,142
  2,222
  2,307
  2,398
  2,496
  2,599
  2,710
  2,826
  2,949
  3,081
  3,219
  3,366
  3,521
  3,684
  3,856
  4,038
  4,228
  4,430
  4,641
  4,866
  5,100
  5,347
  5,607
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.280
  2.560
  2.590
  2.610
  2.650
  2.680
  2.710
  2.740
  2.780
  2.810
  2.850
  2.880
  2.920
  2.950
  2.980
  3.010
  3.040
  3.070
  3.100
  3.130
  3.160
  3.180
  3.210
  3.230
  3.250
  3.280
  3.300
  3.320
  3.340
  3.350
  3.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.198
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  30
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  70
  81
  82
  83
  84
  86
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
Funds from operations, $m
  84
  121
  124
  126
  129
  133
  136
  140
  144
  149
  154
  149
  155
  160
  167
  173
  180
  188
  195
  204
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  329
Change in working capital, $m
  -20
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
Cash from operations, $m
  104
  125
  114
  115
  117
  119
  121
  124
  127
  130
  133
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  206
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  266
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
New CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -94
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  70
  55
  53
  52
  51
  49
  48
  47
  47
  46
  36
  35
  35
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  35
  35
  35
  36
  36
  37
  37
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  87
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  97
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  109
  113
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  221
  232
  242
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  20
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  140
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  95
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
Discount rate, %
 
  9.80
  10.29
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.51
  13.13
  13.79
  14.48
  15.20
  15.96
  16.76
  17.60
  18.48
  19.40
  20.37
  21.39
  22.46
  23.58
  24.76
  26.00
  27.30
  28.67
  30.10
  31.61
  33.19
  34.85
  36.59
  38.42
  40.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  128
  64
  59
  53
  48
  42
  37
  32
  27
  23
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Griffon Corporation, through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, engages in home and building, telephonics, and plastic products businesses worldwide. Its Home & Building Products segment offers long handle tools, wheelbarrows, snow tools, decorative plastic, planters and lawn accessories, striking and hand tools, pruning, and garden hose and storage products under the AMES, True Temper, Garant, UnionTools, Hound Dog, Westmix, Cyclone, Southern Patio, Northcote Pottery, Nylex, Kelso, Darby, and Dynamic Design; and Razor-Back and Jackson brands, as well as private label branded products to homeowners and professionals. It also manufactures and markets residential and commercial garage doors under the Clopay, America’s Favorite Garage Doors, Holmes Garage Door Company, and IDEAL Door brands to professional dealers and home center retail chains. The company’s Telephonics Corporation segment designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and provides logistical support and sustainment services for aircraft intercommunication systems, radar, air traffic management, identification friend or foe interrogators, and integrated border and perimeter security systems; and custom, mixed-signal, and application-specific integrated circuits. It also offers systems engineering services for air and missile defense programs, and other threat and situational awareness requirements. Its Clopay Plastic Products segment develops and produces specialty plastic films and laminates, such as thin gauge embossed and printed films, elastomeric films, laminates of film and non-woven fabrics, and perforated films and non-wovens for use in hygienic, health-care, and industrial applications to multinational consumer and medical products companies. The company sells its products through technical business development personnel; installing dealers, retailers, and wholesalers; direct sales forces; and sales professionals. Griffon Corporation was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Griffon (GFF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.5
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 82
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 23%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 222.4%
Total Debt to Equity 228%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Total Capital 2.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
EBITDA Margin 8.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Operating Margin 5.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Net Profit Margin 1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 43.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.1%
Payout Ratio 30%

GFF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GFF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1957 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Griffon. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Griffon. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GFF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.8%, whose default value for GFF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Griffon, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Griffon.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GFF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GFF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Griffon.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Griffon. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GFF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GFF are equal to 30.9%.

Life of production assets of 13.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Griffon operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GFF is equal to 21.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $411 million for Griffon - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.465 million for Griffon is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Griffon at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ The AMES Companies® Releases 2017 Spring Gardening Tips   [Apr-12-17 08:53AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Griffon posts 1Q profit   [Jan-31-17 08:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Griffon Corporation (GFF) A Good Stock to Buy?   [07:26AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Griffon posts 2Q profit   [May-04-16 05:41PM  AP]
▶ SEG Sponsors Robotics Team   [03:49PM  at noodls]
▶ Is Brooks Automation, Inc. (USA) (BRKS) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-23  01:30PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of GFF Financial statements of GFF
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