Intrinsic value of Gold Fields ADR - GFI

Previous Close

$3.97

  Intrinsic Value

$0.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

Previous close

$3.97

 
Intrinsic value

$0.81

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.06
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
Revenue, $m
  2,750
  2,973
  3,204
  3,445
  3,695
  3,955
  4,225
  4,506
  4,798
  5,102
  5,418
  5,748
  6,091
  6,449
  6,822
  7,212
  7,619
  8,043
  8,487
  8,951
  9,436
  9,943
  10,474
  11,030
  11,612
  12,221
  12,859
  13,528
  14,229
  14,963
  15,733
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,682
  2,888
  3,103
  3,326
  3,557
  3,798
  4,049
  4,309
  4,580
  4,862
  5,124
  5,430
  5,749
  6,082
  6,429
  6,791
  7,170
  7,566
  7,979
  8,411
  8,864
  9,337
  9,832
  10,351
  10,894
  11,463
  12,059
  12,684
  13,339
  14,025
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,155
  2,682
  2,888
  3,103
  3,326
  3,557
  3,798
  4,049
  4,309
  4,580
  4,862
  5,124
  5,430
  5,749
  6,082
  6,429
  6,791
  7,170
  7,566
  7,979
  8,411
  8,864
  9,337
  9,832
  10,351
  10,894
  11,463
  12,059
  12,684
  13,339
  14,025
Operating income, $m
  595
  291
  316
  342
  369
  398
  427
  457
  489
  522
  556
  624
  661
  700
  741
  783
  827
  873
  921
  972
  1,024
  1,079
  1,137
  1,197
  1,261
  1,327
  1,396
  1,469
  1,545
  1,624
  1,708
EBITDA, $m
  1,274
  1,007
  1,085
  1,167
  1,252
  1,340
  1,431
  1,526
  1,625
  1,728
  1,835
  1,947
  2,063
  2,184
  2,311
  2,443
  2,580
  2,724
  2,875
  3,032
  3,196
  3,368
  3,548
  3,736
  3,933
  4,139
  4,355
  4,582
  4,819
  5,068
  5,329
Interest expense (income), $m
  82
  71
  83
  95
  107
  121
  134
  148
  163
  179
  195
  211
  229
  247
  266
  285
  306
  327
  350
  373
  397
  423
  450
  478
  507
  537
  570
  603
  638
  675
  714
Earnings before tax, $m
  366
  220
  234
  247
  262
  277
  293
  309
  326
  343
  362
  413
  433
  453
  475
  498
  521
  546
  572
  599
  627
  657
  687
  720
  754
  789
  826
  865
  906
  949
  994
Tax expense, $m
  192
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  154
  162
  169
  177
  186
  194
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  256
  268
Net income, $m
  163
  161
  170
  181
  191
  202
  214
  225
  238
  251
  264
  301
  316
  331
  347
  363
  381
  399
  417
  437
  458
  479
  502
  525
  550
  576
  603
  632
  662
  693
  726

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  527
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,335
  6,285
  6,774
  7,283
  7,812
  8,362
  8,933
  9,526
  10,144
  10,787
  11,456
  12,152
  12,878
  13,635
  14,424
  15,247
  16,107
  17,005
  17,943
  18,924
  19,949
  21,022
  22,144
  23,319
  24,549
  25,837
  27,186
  28,600
  30,082
  31,635
  33,262
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,808
  6,285
  6,774
  7,283
  7,812
  8,362
  8,933
  9,526
  10,144
  10,787
  11,456
  12,152
  12,878
  13,635
  14,424
  15,247
  16,107
  17,005
  17,943
  18,924
  19,949
  21,022
  22,144
  23,319
  24,549
  25,837
  27,186
  28,600
  30,082
  31,635
  33,262
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
Average production assets, $m
  4,431
  4,789
  5,162
  5,550
  5,953
  6,372
  6,807
  7,259
  7,730
  8,219
  8,729
  9,260
  9,813
  10,390
  10,991
  11,618
  12,274
  12,958
  13,673
  14,420
  15,201
  16,019
  16,874
  17,769
  18,706
  19,688
  20,716
  21,793
  22,922
  24,106
  25,346
Working capital, $m
  194
  -158
  -170
  -183
  -196
  -210
  -224
  -239
  -254
  -270
  -287
  -305
  -323
  -342
  -362
  -382
  -404
  -426
  -450
  -474
  -500
  -527
  -555
  -585
  -615
  -648
  -682
  -717
  -754
  -793
  -834
Total debt, $m
  1,693
  1,756
  2,015
  2,285
  2,565
  2,857
  3,159
  3,474
  3,801
  4,142
  4,496
  4,866
  5,250
  5,651
  6,070
  6,506
  6,962
  7,438
  7,935
  8,454
  8,998
  9,566
  10,161
  10,784
  11,436
  12,119
  12,834
  13,583
  14,368
  15,191
  16,054
Total liabilities, $m
  3,268
  3,331
  3,590
  3,860
  4,140
  4,432
  4,734
  5,049
  5,376
  5,717
  6,071
  6,441
  6,825
  7,226
  7,645
  8,081
  8,537
  9,013
  9,510
  10,029
  10,573
  11,141
  11,736
  12,359
  13,011
  13,694
  14,409
  15,158
  15,943
  16,766
  17,629
Total equity, $m
  3,067
  2,954
  3,184
  3,423
  3,672
  3,930
  4,198
  4,477
  4,768
  5,070
  5,384
  5,711
  6,053
  6,408
  6,779
  7,166
  7,570
  7,992
  8,433
  8,894
  9,376
  9,880
  10,408
  10,960
  11,538
  12,143
  12,778
  13,442
  14,138
  14,868
  15,633
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,335
  6,285
  6,774
  7,283
  7,812
  8,362
  8,932
  9,526
  10,144
  10,787
  11,455
  12,152
  12,878
  13,634
  14,424
  15,247
  16,107
  17,005
  17,943
  18,923
  19,949
  21,021
  22,144
  23,319
  24,549
  25,837
  27,187
  28,600
  30,081
  31,634
  33,262
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.552
  0.590
  0.630
  0.670
  0.700
  0.730
  0.750
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.437
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  163
  161
  170
  181
  191
  202
  214
  225
  238
  251
  264
  301
  316
  331
  347
  363
  381
  399
  417
  437
  458
  479
  502
  525
  550
  576
  603
  632
  662
  693
  726
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  679
  716
  769
  825
  882
  942
  1,004
  1,069
  1,136
  1,206
  1,279
  1,323
  1,402
  1,484
  1,570
  1,660
  1,753
  1,851
  1,953
  2,060
  2,172
  2,288
  2,411
  2,538
  2,672
  2,813
  2,959
  3,113
  3,275
  3,444
  3,621
Funds from operations, $m
  567
  877
  940
  1,005
  1,073
  1,144
  1,218
  1,294
  1,374
  1,457
  1,543
  1,624
  1,718
  1,815
  1,917
  2,023
  2,134
  2,250
  2,371
  2,497
  2,629
  2,768
  2,912
  3,064
  3,223
  3,389
  3,563
  3,745
  3,936
  4,137
  4,347
Change in working capital, $m
  -351
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Cash from operations, $m
  918
  889
  952
  1,018
  1,087
  1,158
  1,232
  1,309
  1,389
  1,473
  1,560
  1,642
  1,736
  1,834
  1,937
  2,044
  2,155
  2,272
  2,394
  2,522
  2,655
  2,795
  2,941
  3,093
  3,253
  3,421
  3,597
  3,781
  3,973
  4,175
  4,387
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -633
  -684
  -737
  -793
  -850
  -910
  -972
  -1,037
  -1,104
  -1,174
  -1,247
  -1,323
  -1,402
  -1,484
  -1,570
  -1,660
  -1,753
  -1,851
  -1,953
  -2,060
  -2,172
  -2,288
  -2,411
  -2,538
  -2,672
  -2,813
  -2,959
  -3,113
  -3,275
  -3,444
New CAPEX, $m
  -650
  -359
  -373
  -388
  -403
  -419
  -435
  -452
  -471
  -490
  -510
  -531
  -553
  -577
  -601
  -627
  -655
  -684
  -715
  -747
  -781
  -817
  -855
  -895
  -937
  -982
  -1,028
  -1,077
  -1,129
  -1,183
  -1,240
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -868
  -992
  -1,057
  -1,125
  -1,196
  -1,269
  -1,345
  -1,424
  -1,508
  -1,594
  -1,684
  -1,778
  -1,876
  -1,979
  -2,085
  -2,197
  -2,315
  -2,437
  -2,566
  -2,700
  -2,841
  -2,989
  -3,143
  -3,306
  -3,475
  -3,654
  -3,841
  -4,036
  -4,242
  -4,458
  -4,684
Free cash flow, $m
  50
  -103
  -105
  -107
  -109
  -111
  -113
  -116
  -118
  -121
  -124
  -136
  -140
  -144
  -149
  -154
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -297
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -115
  251
  259
  270
  280
  291
  303
  315
  327
  341
  355
  369
  385
  401
  418
  436
  456
  476
  497
  520
  543
  568
  595
  623
  652
  683
  715
  749
  785
  823
  863
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  152
  65
  60
  58
  57
  56
  55
  54
  52
  51
  50
  26
  25
  25
  24
  24
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  37
  316
  319
  328
  337
  347
  358
  369
  379
  392
  405
  395
  410
  426
  442
  460
  479
  499
  521
  544
  567
  593
  621
  650
  680
  712
  746
  782
  820
  860
  902
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  87
  213
  214
  221
  228
  236
  244
  253
  261
  271
  281
  259
  270
  281
  294
  306
  320
  334
  349
  365
  381
  399
  417
  437
  457
  479
  502
  526
  551
  578
  605
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -411
  -226
  -230
  -239
  -249
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -290
  -302
  -314
  -327
  -341
  -356
  -371
  -387
  -404
  -422
  -441
  -461
  -482
  -504
  -528
  -552
  -578
  -605
  -634
  -664
  -696
  -730
  -765
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  339
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  326
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -160
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  313
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -32
  -30
  -28
  -26
  -24
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.9
  96.1
  94.5
  93.1
  91.8
  90.7
  89.6
  88.7
  87.8
  87.0
  86.7
  86.3
  86.0
  85.7
  85.4
  85.2
  84.9
  84.7
  84.5
  84.3
  84.1
  83.9
  83.7
  83.5
  83.3
  83.1
  82.9
  82.7
  82.5
  82.3

Gold Fields Limited (Gold Fields) is a gold mining company. The Company is a producer of gold and a holder of gold reserves. The Company is involved in underground and surface gold and copper mining and related activities, including exploration, development, extraction, processing and smelting. It has approximately eight producing mines located in South Africa, Ghana, Australia and Peru. It operates through four segments: South Africa, Ghana, Australia and Peru. Its South African operation is South Deep. Gold Fields also owns the St. Ives mine, the Agnew mine and the Yilgarn South Assets in Australia, and has an interest in each of the Tarkwa gold mine and the Damang gold mine in Ghana. Gold Fields also owns an economic interest in the Cerro Corona mine. In Peru, Gold Fields also produces copper. In addition, Gold Fields has gold and other precious metal exploration activities and interests in Africa, Eurasia, Australasia and the Americas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gold Fields ADR (GFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 49.1%
Total Debt to Equity 55.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.4%
Return On Total Capital 3.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Return On Equity 5.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.5%
EBITDA Margin 41%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Operating Margin 21.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Net Profit Margin 5.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Effective Tax Rate 52.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1699.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

GFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2750 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gold Fields ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Gold Fields ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gold Fields ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gold Fields ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Gold Fields ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gold Fields ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GFI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GFI are equal to 161.1%.

Life of production assets of 7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gold Fields ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GFI is equal to -5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3067 million for Gold Fields ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 848.866 million for Gold Fields ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gold Fields ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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Financial statements of GFI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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