Intrinsic value of Greenhill - GHL

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$27.80

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$27.80

 
Intrinsic value

$470.48

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as GHL.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GHL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.24
  34.20
  31.28
  28.65
  26.29
  24.16
  22.24
  20.52
  18.97
  17.57
  16.31
  15.18
  14.16
  13.25
  12.42
  11.68
  11.01
  10.41
  9.87
  9.38
  8.94
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
Revenue, $m
  336
  451
  592
  762
  962
  1,194
  1,460
  1,759
  2,093
  2,461
  2,862
  3,296
  3,763
  4,262
  4,791
  5,351
  5,940
  6,558
  7,206
  7,882
  8,587
  9,321
  10,085
  10,879
  11,705
  12,563
  13,454
  14,381
  15,344
  16,345
  17,388
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  163
  208
  262
  325
  398
  482
  577
  682
  799
  925
  1,042
  1,190
  1,347
  1,514
  1,691
  1,878
  2,073
  2,278
  2,491
  2,714
  2,946
  3,188
  3,439
  3,700
  3,971
  4,253
  4,546
  4,850
  5,167
  5,496
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  170
  174
  178
  183
  187
  192
  197
  202
  207
  212
  217
  222
  228
  234
  240
  246
  252
Total operating expenses, $m
  244
  286
  334
  391
  457
  534
  621
  720
  828
  949
  1,079
  1,199
  1,351
  1,512
  1,684
  1,865
  2,056
  2,256
  2,465
  2,683
  2,911
  3,148
  3,395
  3,651
  3,917
  4,193
  4,481
  4,780
  5,090
  5,413
  5,748
Operating income, $m
  91
  165
  258
  371
  504
  660
  838
  1,040
  1,264
  1,512
  1,783
  2,097
  2,412
  2,749
  3,107
  3,486
  3,884
  4,303
  4,741
  5,199
  5,676
  6,173
  6,691
  7,229
  7,788
  8,369
  8,973
  9,601
  10,254
  10,933
  11,640
EBITDA, $m
  94
  186
  279
  392
  526
  682
  860
  1,062
  1,287
  1,535
  1,806
  2,100
  2,416
  2,753
  3,112
  3,490
  3,890
  4,309
  4,747
  5,206
  5,684
  6,182
  6,700
  7,238
  7,798
  8,380
  8,985
  9,614
  10,268
  10,948
  11,655
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  5
  8
  11
  15
  20
  25
  31
  37
  44
  52
  60
  69
  79
  89
  100
  111
  123
  135
  148
  162
  176
  191
  206
  222
  238
  256
  273
  292
  311
Earnings before tax, $m
  88
  161
  253
  363
  493
  645
  819
  1,015
  1,234
  1,475
  1,739
  2,045
  2,352
  2,680
  3,028
  3,397
  3,785
  4,192
  4,618
  5,063
  5,528
  6,011
  6,514
  7,038
  7,582
  8,147
  8,735
  9,346
  9,981
  10,641
  11,328
Tax expense, $m
  27
  44
  68
  98
  133
  174
  221
  274
  333
  398
  469
  552
  635
  724
  818
  917
  1,022
  1,132
  1,247
  1,367
  1,492
  1,623
  1,759
  1,900
  2,047
  2,200
  2,358
  2,523
  2,695
  2,873
  3,059
Net income, $m
  61
  118
  184
  265
  360
  471
  598
  741
  901
  1,077
  1,269
  1,493
  1,717
  1,957
  2,211
  2,480
  2,763
  3,060
  3,371
  3,696
  4,035
  4,388
  4,756
  5,138
  5,535
  5,947
  6,376
  6,822
  7,286
  7,768
  8,270

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  457
  487
  639
  822
  1,039
  1,290
  1,576
  1,900
  2,260
  2,657
  3,091
  3,560
  4,064
  4,602
  5,174
  5,778
  6,415
  7,083
  7,782
  8,512
  9,273
  10,066
  10,891
  11,749
  12,640
  13,566
  14,529
  15,530
  16,570
  17,652
  18,777
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  363
  487
  639
  822
  1,039
  1,290
  1,576
  1,900
  2,260
  2,657
  3,091
  3,560
  4,064
  4,602
  5,174
  5,778
  6,415
  7,083
  7,782
  8,512
  9,273
  10,066
  10,891
  11,749
  12,640
  13,566
  14,529
  15,530
  16,570
  17,652
  18,777
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.927
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
Average production assets, $m
  9
  12
  16
  21
  26
  32
  39
  47
  57
  66
  77
  89
  102
  115
  129
  144
  160
  177
  195
  213
  232
  252
  272
  294
  316
  339
  363
  388
  414
  441
  469
Working capital, $m
  0
  -126
  -166
  -213
  -269
  -334
  -409
  -493
  -586
  -689
  -801
  -923
  -1,054
  -1,193
  -1,342
  -1,498
  -1,663
  -1,836
  -2,018
  -2,207
  -2,404
  -2,610
  -2,824
  -3,046
  -3,277
  -3,518
  -3,767
  -4,027
  -4,296
  -4,577
  -4,869
Total debt, $m
  81
  138
  207
  291
  390
  504
  635
  783
  948
  1,129
  1,327
  1,542
  1,772
  2,018
  2,280
  2,556
  2,847
  3,152
  3,471
  3,805
  4,153
  4,515
  4,892
  5,284
  5,692
  6,115
  6,555
  7,012
  7,487
  7,982
  8,496
Total liabilities, $m
  166
  223
  292
  376
  475
  589
  720
  868
  1,033
  1,214
  1,412
  1,627
  1,857
  2,103
  2,365
  2,641
  2,932
  3,237
  3,556
  3,890
  4,238
  4,600
  4,977
  5,369
  5,777
  6,200
  6,640
  7,097
  7,572
  8,067
  8,581
Total equity, $m
  291
  264
  347
  447
  564
  700
  856
  1,032
  1,227
  1,443
  1,678
  1,933
  2,207
  2,499
  2,810
  3,138
  3,483
  3,846
  4,225
  4,622
  5,035
  5,466
  5,914
  6,379
  6,864
  7,367
  7,889
  8,433
  8,997
  9,585
  10,196
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  457
  487
  639
  823
  1,039
  1,289
  1,576
  1,900
  2,260
  2,657
  3,090
  3,560
  4,064
  4,602
  5,175
  5,779
  6,415
  7,083
  7,781
  8,512
  9,273
  10,066
  10,891
  11,748
  12,641
  13,567
  14,529
  15,530
  16,569
  17,652
  18,777
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.278
  0.520
  0.600
  0.650
  0.690
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543
  0.543

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  118
  184
  265
  360
  471
  598
  741
  901
  1,077
  1,269
  1,493
  1,717
  1,957
  2,211
  2,480
  2,763
  3,060
  3,371
  3,696
  4,035
  4,388
  4,756
  5,138
  5,535
  5,947
  6,376
  6,822
  7,286
  7,768
  8,270
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  136
  139
  206
  286
  382
  493
  620
  763
  923
  1,100
  1,293
  1,496
  1,721
  1,960
  2,215
  2,484
  2,768
  3,066
  3,378
  3,703
  4,043
  4,397
  4,765
  5,147
  5,545
  5,959
  6,388
  6,835
  7,300
  7,783
  8,285
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  -32
  -39
  -47
  -56
  -65
  -74
  -84
  -93
  -103
  -112
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -259
  -270
  -280
  -292
Cash from operations, $m
  124
  171
  245
  334
  438
  558
  694
  847
  1,017
  1,203
  1,405
  1,618
  1,851
  2,100
  2,363
  2,641
  2,933
  3,239
  3,559
  3,893
  4,240
  4,602
  4,979
  5,370
  5,776
  6,199
  6,638
  7,095
  7,569
  8,063
  8,577
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Free cash flow, $m
  123
  168
  241
  329
  432
  551
  686
  838
  1,006
  1,191
  1,392
  1,603
  1,836
  2,083
  2,345
  2,622
  2,912
  3,217
  3,535
  3,868
  4,214
  4,575
  4,950
  5,339
  5,744
  6,165
  6,603
  7,058
  7,530
  8,022
  8,534
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  57
  70
  84
  99
  115
  131
  148
  165
  181
  198
  214
  230
  246
  261
  276
  291
  305
  319
  334
  348
  362
  377
  392
  407
  423
  440
  457
  475
  494
  514
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -25
  57
  70
  84
  99
  115
  131
  148
  165
  181
  198
  214
  230
  246
  261
  276
  291
  305
  319
  334
  348
  362
  377
  392
  407
  423
  440
  457
  475
  494
  514
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  90
  224
  311
  412
  530
  665
  817
  986
  1,171
  1,372
  1,590
  1,818
  2,066
  2,329
  2,606
  2,898
  3,203
  3,522
  3,855
  4,202
  4,562
  4,937
  5,326
  5,731
  6,152
  6,589
  7,043
  7,515
  8,006
  8,517
  9,049
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -8
  -67
  -83
  -99
  -117
  -136
  -156
  -176
  -196
  -216
  -235
  -255
  -274
  -292
  -310
  -328
  -346
  -363
  -380
  -396
  -413
  -431
  -448
  -466
  -484
  -503
  -523
  -543
  -565
  -587
  -611
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  251
  228
  313
  413
  529
  661
  810
  975
  1,157
  1,355
  1,563
  1,792
  2,037
  2,296
  2,570
  2,858
  3,160
  3,475
  3,805
  4,149
  4,506
  4,879
  5,265
  5,668
  6,086
  6,520
  6,971
  7,441
  7,929
  8,438
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  241
  209
  272
  340
  410
  480
  547
  610
  665
  710
  742
  765
  774
  771
  754
  726
  687
  640
  586
  527
  466
  405
  345
  289
  237
  190
  150
  115
  87
  64
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Greenhill & Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an independent investment bank for corporations, partnerships, institutions, and governments worldwide. The company provides financial advisory services primarily related to mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, financings, and capital raisings. It is involved in the provision of advisory services to clients in relation to domestic and cross-border mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, spin-offs, and other strategic transactions, as well as various stages of these transactions, from initial structuring to final execution. The company also advises clients on strategic matters, such as activist response, defensive tactics, special committee projects, licensing deals, joint ventures, valuation, negotiation tactics, industry dynamics, structuring alternatives, and timing and pricing of transactions, as well as financing alternatives. In addition, it engages in advising debtors, creditors, governments, pension funds, and other stakeholders in companies experiencing financial distress, as well as potential acquirers of distressed companies and assets. Further, the company assists the clients, who seek court-assisted reorganizations by developing and seeking approval for plans of reorganization, as well as in the implementation of such plans. It also assists general partners, fund managers, and sponsors in raising capital for new funds; and provides related advisory services to pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, and other institutional investors, as well as on secondary market transactions. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Greenhill (GHL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.2
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 28.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 27.8%
Total Debt to Equity 27.8%
Interest Coverage 30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Total Capital 16.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Return On Equity 21.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 28%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Operating Margin 27.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Net Profit Margin 18.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Effective Tax Rate 30.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Payout Ratio 101.6%

GHL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GHL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $336 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Greenhill. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Greenhill. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GHL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 34.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GHL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Greenhill, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Greenhill.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GHL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $120 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GHL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for Greenhill.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Greenhill. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GHL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GHL are equal to 2.7%.

Life of production assets of 72.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Greenhill operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GHL is equal to -28%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $291 million for Greenhill - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.625 million for Greenhill is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Greenhill at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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Stock chart of GHL Financial statements of GHL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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