Intrinsic value of Graham - GHM

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$22.19

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$22.19

 
Intrinsic value

$115.15

 
Up/down potential

+419%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GHM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -33.33
  35.30
  32.27
  29.54
  27.09
  24.88
  22.89
  21.10
  19.49
  18.04
  16.74
  15.56
  14.51
  13.56
  12.70
  11.93
  11.24
  10.61
  10.05
  9.55
  9.09
  8.68
  8.32
  7.98
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
Revenue, $m
  90
  122
  161
  209
  265
  331
  407
  493
  589
  695
  811
  938
  1,074
  1,219
  1,374
  1,538
  1,711
  1,893
  2,083
  2,282
  2,490
  2,706
  2,931
  3,165
  3,408
  3,661
  3,923
  4,196
  4,480
  4,775
  5,082
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  84
  110
  143
  181
  226
  278
  336
  402
  474
  554
  639
  732
  831
  936
  1,048
  1,166
  1,289
  1,419
  1,555
  1,696
  1,843
  1,996
  2,156
  2,322
  2,494
  2,673
  2,859
  3,052
  3,253
  3,462
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
Total operating expenses, $m
  83
  107
  133
  167
  205
  251
  304
  362
  429
  501
  582
  668
  762
  861
  967
  1,080
  1,199
  1,322
  1,453
  1,590
  1,732
  1,880
  2,034
  2,195
  2,362
  2,535
  2,715
  2,902
  3,096
  3,298
  3,508
Operating income, $m
  7
  16
  28
  42
  60
  80
  104
  130
  160
  193
  230
  270
  313
  358
  407
  459
  513
  570
  630
  692
  758
  826
  896
  970
  1,047
  1,126
  1,209
  1,295
  1,384
  1,477
  1,574
EBITDA, $m
  9
  19
  31
  47
  65
  87
  112
  140
  172
  207
  245
  287
  333
  381
  432
  487
  544
  605
  668
  734
  803
  875
  950
  1,028
  1,109
  1,194
  1,281
  1,372
  1,467
  1,565
  1,667
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  16
  27
  41
  58
  78
  100
  126
  155
  187
  222
  261
  302
  345
  392
  442
  494
  548
  606
  666
  729
  794
  862
  932
  1,006
  1,082
  1,162
  1,244
  1,330
  1,419
  1,512
Tax expense, $m
  3
  4
  7
  11
  16
  21
  27
  34
  42
  50
  60
  70
  81
  93
  106
  119
  133
  148
  164
  180
  197
  214
  233
  252
  272
  292
  314
  336
  359
  383
  408
Net income, $m
  6
  11
  20
  30
  42
  57
  73
  92
  113
  136
  162
  190
  220
  252
  286
  322
  360
  400
  442
  486
  532
  580
  629
  681
  734
  790
  848
  908
  971
  1,036
  1,104

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  143
  106
  140
  181
  230
  287
  353
  427
  510
  602
  703
  813
  931
  1,057
  1,191
  1,333
  1,483
  1,640
  1,805
  1,978
  2,157
  2,345
  2,540
  2,742
  2,953
  3,172
  3,400
  3,636
  3,882
  4,138
  4,404
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  78
  106
  140
  181
  230
  287
  353
  427
  510
  602
  703
  813
  931
  1,057
  1,191
  1,333
  1,483
  1,640
  1,805
  1,978
  2,157
  2,345
  2,540
  2,742
  2,953
  3,172
  3,400
  3,636
  3,882
  4,138
  4,404
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.154
  1.151
  1.150
  1.155
  1.152
  1.153
  1.153
  1.155
  1.155
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.153
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
Average production assets, $m
  35
  47
  62
  80
  102
  127
  156
  189
  226
  266
  311
  359
  411
  467
  526
  589
  655
  725
  798
  874
  954
  1,036
  1,122
  1,212
  1,305
  1,402
  1,503
  1,607
  1,716
  1,829
  1,946
Working capital, $m
  75
  14
  18
  23
  29
  37
  45
  55
  65
  77
  90
  104
  119
  135
  153
  171
  190
  210
  231
  253
  276
  300
  325
  351
  378
  406
  435
  466
  497
  530
  564
Total debt, $m
  0
  12
  27
  45
  66
  91
  120
  152
  188
  229
  273
  320
  372
  427
  485
  547
  613
  681
  753
  828
  907
  988
  1,073
  1,162
  1,254
  1,349
  1,448
  1,551
  1,659
  1,770
  1,886
Total liabilities, $m
  34
  46
  61
  79
  100
  125
  154
  186
  222
  263
  307
  354
  406
  461
  519
  581
  647
  715
  787
  862
  941
  1,022
  1,107
  1,196
  1,288
  1,383
  1,482
  1,585
  1,693
  1,804
  1,920
Total equity, $m
  109
  60
  79
  102
  130
  162
  199
  241
  288
  340
  397
  458
  525
  596
  672
  752
  836
  925
  1,018
  1,115
  1,217
  1,322
  1,432
  1,547
  1,666
  1,789
  1,917
  2,051
  2,190
  2,334
  2,484
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  143
  106
  140
  181
  230
  287
  353
  427
  510
  603
  704
  812
  931
  1,057
  1,191
  1,333
  1,483
  1,640
  1,805
  1,977
  2,158
  2,344
  2,539
  2,743
  2,954
  3,172
  3,399
  3,636
  3,883
  4,138
  4,404
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.200
  0.340
  0.440
  0.510
  0.560
  0.600
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  11
  20
  30
  42
  57
  73
  92
  113
  136
  162
  190
  220
  252
  286
  322
  360
  400
  442
  486
  532
  580
  629
  681
  734
  790
  848
  908
  971
  1,036
  1,104
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  13
  16
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
Funds from operations, $m
  29
  14
  23
  35
  48
  63
  81
  102
  125
  150
  178
  207
  240
  275
  312
  351
  392
  435
  481
  528
  578
  629
  683
  739
  797
  857
  920
  986
  1,053
  1,124
  1,197
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  19
  10
  19
  29
  42
  56
  73
  92
  114
  138
  165
  193
  225
  258
  294
  332
  373
  415
  460
  506
  555
  605
  658
  713
  770
  829
  891
  955
  1,022
  1,091
  1,163
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -88
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -81
  -88
  -94
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -206
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  -4
  2
  8
  16
  26
  38
  52
  68
  87
  107
  130
  155
  183
  213
  244
  278
  314
  352
  392
  433
  477
  522
  569
  619
  670
  723
  778
  836
  896
  958
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  0
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -10
  12
  18
  18
  21
  25
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  8
  17
  26
  37
  51
  67
  84
  104
  127
  151
  178
  207
  238
  271
  306
  343
  383
  424
  467
  512
  558
  607
  658
  711
  765
  822
  882
  943
  1,007
  1,074
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  8
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  58
  0
  3
  10
  19
  29
  42
  57
  75
  94
  116
  140
  167
  195
  226
  259
  294
  331
  369
  410
  453
  497
  543
  592
  642
  694
  748
  804
  863
  924
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  2
  8
  14
  21
  29
  36
  43
  49
  55
  60
  63
  66
  66
  66
  64
  61
  57
  52
  47
  41
  36
  30
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8

Graham Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells vacuum and heat transfer equipment for the chemical, defense, petrochemical, petroleum refining, electric power generation, and other industries worldwide. It offers heat transfer equipment, including surface condensers, Heliflows, water heaters, and various types of heat exchangers; and vacuum equipment consisting of steam jet ejector vacuum systems and liquid ring vacuum pumps. The company also services and sells spare parts for its equipment; and supplies components used inside reactor vessels and outside containment vessels of nuclear power facilities. In addition, it engages in fabrication and specialty machining activities. The company sells its products directly, as well as through independent sales representatives. Graham Corporation was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Batavia, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Graham (GHM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.7
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -33.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -80%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 5.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Equity 5.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
EBITDA Margin 12.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Operating Margin 7.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 10%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Net Profit Margin 6.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
Payout Ratio 50%

GHM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GHM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $90 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Graham. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Graham. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GHM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GHM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Graham, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Graham.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GHM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $22 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GHM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Graham.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Graham. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GHM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GHM are equal to 38.3%.

Life of production assets of 20.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Graham operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GHM is equal to 11.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $109 million for Graham - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.596 million for Graham is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Graham at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Graham Holdings Hangs Tough Despite Education Weakness   [Feb-24-17 06:22PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Graham Corporation Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jan-31-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ How Graham Corporation (GHM) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-14-16 10:11PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Should You Avoid Graham Holdings Co (GHC)?   [Dec-02-16 04:53PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Graham Corporation Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Oct-31-16 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Graham Holdings Could Have 35% Upside   [Jul-09-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Hedge Funds Favorite Education Stocks   [Jun-03-16 01:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Graham Corporation Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-24-16 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Graham Holdings Gets a Profit Boost From Kaplan Unit   [May-04-16 10:20PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ CEOs Are Piling Up More Shares of These Three Companies   [Mar-25-16 03:53PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Graham Corporation Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jan-28-16 05:27PM  at noodls]
▶ Gimlet fundraising caps podcasting revival   [Dec-04  06:17PM  at Financial Times]
▶ What Do Hedge Funds Think of Graham Holdings Co (GHC)?   [Dec-01  08:01PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is HC2 Holdings Inc (HCHC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-29  01:29AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ VOXX International Corp (VOXX)Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Nov-26  06:52AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Graham Holdings Earnings Get Crushed by Kaplan   [Nov-06  12:36PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of GHM Financial statements of GHM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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