Intrinsic value of G-III Apparel Group - GIII

Previous Close

$23.94

  Intrinsic Value

$17.42

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

  Value-price divergence*

+171%

Previous close

$23.94

 
Intrinsic value

$17.42

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+171%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GIII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.79
  14.40
  13.46
  12.61
  11.85
  11.17
  10.55
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.65
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.67
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
Revenue, $m
  2,386
  2,730
  3,097
  3,488
  3,901
  4,337
  4,794
  5,273
  5,774
  6,297
  6,841
  7,407
  7,996
  8,608
  9,244
  9,905
  10,592
  11,306
  12,048
  12,821
  13,625
  14,462
  15,333
  16,242
  17,189
  18,178
  19,209
  20,286
  21,412
  22,588
  23,817
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,513
  2,847
  3,203
  3,580
  3,976
  4,393
  4,830
  5,286
  5,761
  6,257
  6,746
  7,282
  7,839
  8,419
  9,021
  9,646
  10,297
  10,973
  11,676
  12,408
  13,171
  13,964
  14,792
  15,655
  16,555
  17,494
  18,475
  19,500
  20,571
  21,691
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,293
  2,513
  2,847
  3,203
  3,580
  3,976
  4,393
  4,830
  5,286
  5,761
  6,257
  6,746
  7,282
  7,839
  8,419
  9,021
  9,646
  10,297
  10,973
  11,676
  12,408
  13,171
  13,964
  14,792
  15,655
  16,555
  17,494
  18,475
  19,500
  20,571
  21,691
Operating income, $m
  93
  217
  250
  284
  321
  360
  401
  444
  489
  535
  584
  661
  714
  768
  825
  884
  946
  1,009
  1,076
  1,145
  1,216
  1,291
  1,369
  1,450
  1,535
  1,623
  1,715
  1,811
  1,912
  2,016
  2,126
EBITDA, $m
  125
  270
  306
  344
  385
  428
  473
  521
  570
  622
  675
  731
  790
  850
  913
  978
  1,046
  1,116
  1,190
  1,266
  1,345
  1,428
  1,514
  1,604
  1,697
  1,795
  1,897
  2,003
  2,114
  2,230
  2,352
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  44
  55
  67
  80
  94
  108
  124
  139
  156
  173
  191
  210
  229
  250
  271
  293
  315
  339
  363
  389
  416
  443
  472
  502
  534
  566
  600
  636
  673
  712
Earnings before tax, $m
  78
  173
  194
  217
  241
  266
  293
  320
  349
  379
  411
  470
  504
  539
  576
  614
  653
  694
  737
  781
  827
  875
  926
  978
  1,032
  1,089
  1,149
  1,211
  1,276
  1,343
  1,414
Tax expense, $m
  26
  47
  52
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  111
  127
  136
  146
  155
  166
  176
  187
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  294
  310
  327
  344
  363
  382
Net income, $m
  52
  126
  142
  158
  176
  194
  214
  234
  255
  277
  300
  343
  368
  393
  420
  448
  477
  507
  538
  570
  604
  639
  676
  714
  754
  795
  839
  884
  931
  981
  1,032

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,852
  2,026
  2,299
  2,589
  2,896
  3,219
  3,559
  3,915
  4,287
  4,674
  5,078
  5,499
  5,936
  6,390
  6,863
  7,353
  7,863
  8,393
  8,945
  9,518
  10,115
  10,736
  11,383
  12,058
  12,761
  13,495
  14,261
  15,060
  15,896
  16,769
  17,681
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,772
  2,026
  2,299
  2,589
  2,896
  3,219
  3,559
  3,915
  4,287
  4,674
  5,078
  5,499
  5,936
  6,390
  6,863
  7,353
  7,863
  8,393
  8,945
  9,518
  10,115
  10,736
  11,383
  12,058
  12,761
  13,495
  14,261
  15,060
  15,896
  16,769
  17,681
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
  1.347
Average production assets, $m
  384
  439
  499
  562
  628
  698
  772
  849
  930
  1,014
  1,101
  1,193
  1,287
  1,386
  1,488
  1,595
  1,705
  1,820
  1,940
  2,064
  2,194
  2,328
  2,469
  2,615
  2,767
  2,927
  3,093
  3,266
  3,447
  3,637
  3,835
Working capital, $m
  568
  560
  635
  715
  800
  889
  983
  1,081
  1,184
  1,291
  1,402
  1,518
  1,639
  1,765
  1,895
  2,030
  2,171
  2,318
  2,470
  2,628
  2,793
  2,965
  3,143
  3,330
  3,524
  3,726
  3,938
  4,159
  4,389
  4,630
  4,882
Total debt, $m
  462
  581
  709
  845
  989
  1,141
  1,300
  1,467
  1,641
  1,823
  2,013
  2,210
  2,415
  2,628
  2,850
  3,080
  3,319
  3,567
  3,826
  4,095
  4,375
  4,666
  4,970
  5,286
  5,616
  5,960
  6,319
  6,694
  7,086
  7,496
  7,924
Total liabilities, $m
  831
  950
  1,078
  1,214
  1,358
  1,510
  1,669
  1,836
  2,010
  2,192
  2,382
  2,579
  2,784
  2,997
  3,219
  3,449
  3,688
  3,936
  4,195
  4,464
  4,744
  5,035
  5,339
  5,655
  5,985
  6,329
  6,688
  7,063
  7,455
  7,865
  8,293
Total equity, $m
  1,021
  1,076
  1,221
  1,375
  1,538
  1,710
  1,890
  2,079
  2,276
  2,482
  2,697
  2,920
  3,152
  3,393
  3,644
  3,905
  4,175
  4,457
  4,750
  5,054
  5,371
  5,701
  6,045
  6,403
  6,776
  7,166
  7,572
  7,997
  8,441
  8,904
  9,389
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,852
  2,026
  2,299
  2,589
  2,896
  3,220
  3,559
  3,915
  4,286
  4,674
  5,079
  5,499
  5,936
  6,390
  6,863
  7,354
  7,863
  8,393
  8,945
  9,518
  10,115
  10,736
  11,384
  12,058
  12,761
  13,495
  14,260
  15,060
  15,896
  16,769
  17,682
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.452
  0.540
  0.580
  0.610
  0.640
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  126
  142
  158
  176
  194
  214
  234
  255
  277
  300
  343
  368
  393
  420
  448
  477
  507
  538
  570
  604
  639
  676
  714
  754
  795
  839
  884
  931
  981
  1,032
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  179
  198
  218
  240
  262
  286
  311
  337
  363
  391
  413
  444
  475
  508
  542
  577
  614
  652
  692
  733
  776
  821
  868
  916
  967
  1,020
  1,076
  1,134
  1,195
  1,258
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  70
  75
  80
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  211
  221
  231
  241
  252
Cash from operations, $m
  106
  109
  123
  138
  155
  173
  192
  212
  234
  256
  280
  297
  323
  350
  377
  406
  436
  467
  500
  533
  568
  604
  642
  681
  722
  765
  809
  855
  903
  953
  1,006
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -203
  -214
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -526
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -131
  -139
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -215
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -264
  -277
  -291
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -355
  -373
  -392
  -412
Free cash flow, $m
  -420
  30
  38
  46
  55
  66
  77
  90
  103
  118
  133
  141
  158
  175
  193
  212
  232
  252
  273
  295
  317
  341
  365
  390
  416
  443
  471
  500
  530
  561
  594
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  374
  119
  128
  136
  144
  152
  159
  167
  174
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  221
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  304
  316
  330
  344
  359
  375
  392
  409
  428
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  9
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  368
  128
  131
  136
  144
  152
  159
  167
  174
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  221
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  304
  316
  330
  344
  359
  375
  392
  409
  428
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -53
  159
  169
  182
  199
  218
  237
  257
  278
  299
  322
  338
  363
  388
  415
  442
  471
  501
  532
  564
  597
  632
  668
  706
  746
  787
  830
  875
  922
  971
  1,022
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -133
  -135
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -271
  -281
  -293
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -358
  -373
  -390
  -407
  -425
  -444
  -464
  -485
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  104
  24
  28
  36
  46
  56
  68
  80
  93
  108
  115
  131
  147
  164
  182
  200
  219
  239
  259
  280
  302
  325
  348
  372
  397
  423
  450
  478
  507
  537
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  98
  21
  23
  28
  33
  37
  41
  43
  45
  46
  43
  43
  41
  39
  37
  33
  30
  26
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.1
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets men’s and women’s apparel. It operates through two segments: Wholesale Operations and Retail Operations. The company’s products include outerwear, dresses, sportswear, swimwear, women’s suits, and women’s performance wear; and women’s handbags, footwear, small leather goods, cold weather accessories, and luggage. It markets swimwear, resort wear, and related accessories under the Vilebrequin brand; footwear, apparel, and accessories under Bass and G.H. Bass brands; and apparel products under Andrew Marc, Marc New York, Jessica Howard, Eliza J and Black Rivet, Weejuns, and other private retail labels. G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. also licenses its products under the Calvin Klein, ck Calvin Klein, Karl Lagerfeld, Guess, Guess?, Kenneth Cole NY, Reaction Kenneth Cole, Cole Haan, Levi's, Vince Camuto, Tommy Hilfiger, Jessica Simpson, Ivanka Trump, Jones New York, Ellen Tracy, Kensie, Dockers, Wilsons, G-III Sports by Carl Banks, and G-III for Her brands, as well as have licenses with the National Football League, Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, Touch by Alyssa Milano, Hands High, Collegiate Licensing Company, Major League Soccer, and Starter. The company offers its products to department, specialty, and mass merchant retail stores in the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Far East; and distributes products through its retail stores, as well as through G.H. Bass, Wilsons Leather, Vilebrequin, and Andrew Marc Websites. As of January 31, 2016, it operated 199 Wilsons Leather stores, 163 G.H. Bass stores, and 5 Calvin Klein performance stores. G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. was founded in 1956 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  G-III Apparel Group (GIII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.4
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.2%
Total Debt to Equity 45.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
EBITDA Margin 5.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

GIII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GIII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2386 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by G-III Apparel Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of G-III Apparel Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GIII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for GIII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of G-III Apparel Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of G-III Apparel Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GIII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GIII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.5% for G-III Apparel Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for G-III Apparel Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GIII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GIII are equal to 16.1%.

Life of production assets of 17 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in G-III Apparel Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GIII is equal to 20.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1021 million for G-III Apparel Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.34 million for G-III Apparel Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of G-III Apparel Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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Stock chart of GIII Financial statements of GIII
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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