Intrinsic value of G-III Apparel Group - GIII

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$23.59

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$23.59

 
Intrinsic value

$27.90

 
Up/down potential

+18%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GIII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.79
  14.40
  13.46
  12.61
  11.85
  11.17
  10.55
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.65
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.67
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
Revenue, $m
  2,386
  2,730
  3,097
  3,488
  3,901
  4,337
  4,794
  5,273
  5,774
  6,297
  6,841
  7,407
  7,996
  8,608
  9,244
  9,905
  10,592
  11,306
  12,048
  12,821
  13,625
  14,462
  15,333
  16,242
  17,189
  18,178
  19,209
  20,286
  21,412
  22,588
  23,817
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,516
  2,854
  3,213
  3,594
  3,994
  4,415
  4,856
  5,317
  5,797
  6,298
  6,814
  7,356
  7,919
  8,504
  9,112
  9,744
  10,401
  11,084
  11,794
  12,534
  13,304
  14,106
  14,942
  15,813
  16,723
  17,672
  18,662
  19,698
  20,779
  21,910
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,293
  2,516
  2,854
  3,213
  3,594
  3,994
  4,415
  4,856
  5,317
  5,797
  6,298
  6,814
  7,356
  7,919
  8,504
  9,112
  9,744
  10,401
  11,084
  11,794
  12,534
  13,304
  14,106
  14,942
  15,813
  16,723
  17,672
  18,662
  19,698
  20,779
  21,910
Operating income, $m
  93
  214
  243
  274
  307
  342
  379
  417
  457
  499
  543
  593
  640
  689
  740
  793
  848
  905
  965
  1,026
  1,091
  1,158
  1,227
  1,300
  1,376
  1,455
  1,538
  1,624
  1,714
  1,808
  1,907
EBITDA, $m
  118
  241
  273
  307
  344
  382
  423
  465
  509
  555
  603
  653
  705
  759
  815
  873
  934
  997
  1,062
  1,130
  1,201
  1,275
  1,352
  1,432
  1,515
  1,603
  1,694
  1,789
  1,888
  1,991
  2,100
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  8
  10
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
Earnings before tax, $m
  78
  214
  242
  271
  303
  336
  370
  407
  445
  484
  526
  574
  618
  665
  713
  763
  815
  869
  926
  984
  1,045
  1,109
  1,175
  1,244
  1,316
  1,391
  1,469
  1,551
  1,636
  1,725
  1,819
Tax expense, $m
  26
  58
  65
  73
  82
  91
  100
  110
  120
  131
  142
  155
  167
  179
  192
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  282
  299
  317
  336
  355
  376
  397
  419
  442
  466
  491
Net income, $m
  52
  156
  176
  198
  221
  245
  270
  297
  325
  354
  384
  419
  451
  485
  520
  557
  595
  635
  676
  719
  763
  809
  858
  908
  961
  1,015
  1,072
  1,132
  1,194
  1,260
  1,328

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  133
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,184
  1,202
  1,364
  1,536
  1,719
  1,910
  2,112
  2,323
  2,544
  2,774
  3,014
  3,263
  3,522
  3,792
  4,072
  4,363
  4,666
  4,981
  5,308
  5,648
  6,002
  6,371
  6,755
  7,155
  7,572
  8,008
  8,462
  8,937
  9,432
  9,950
  10,492
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,051
  1,202
  1,364
  1,536
  1,719
  1,910
  2,112
  2,323
  2,544
  2,774
  3,014
  3,263
  3,522
  3,792
  4,072
  4,363
  4,666
  4,981
  5,308
  5,648
  6,002
  6,371
  6,755
  7,155
  7,572
  8,008
  8,462
  8,937
  9,432
  9,950
  10,492
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.270
  2.271
  2.271
  2.271
  2.269
  2.271
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
Average production assets, $m
  175
  199
  226
  255
  285
  317
  350
  385
  422
  460
  499
  541
  584
  628
  675
  723
  773
  825
  880
  936
  995
  1,056
  1,119
  1,186
  1,255
  1,327
  1,402
  1,481
  1,563
  1,649
  1,739
Working capital, $m
  657
  601
  681
  767
  858
  954
  1,055
  1,160
  1,270
  1,385
  1,505
  1,630
  1,759
  1,894
  2,034
  2,179
  2,330
  2,487
  2,651
  2,821
  2,997
  3,182
  3,373
  3,573
  3,782
  3,999
  4,226
  4,463
  4,711
  4,969
  5,240
Total debt, $m
  0
  43
  89
  137
  189
  243
  300
  359
  421
  486
  554
  624
  697
  773
  852
  934
  1,020
  1,109
  1,201
  1,297
  1,397
  1,501
  1,609
  1,722
  1,839
  1,962
  2,090
  2,224
  2,364
  2,510
  2,663
Total liabilities, $m
  296
  339
  385
  433
  485
  539
  596
  655
  717
  782
  850
  920
  993
  1,069
  1,148
  1,230
  1,316
  1,405
  1,497
  1,593
  1,693
  1,797
  1,905
  2,018
  2,135
  2,258
  2,386
  2,520
  2,660
  2,806
  2,959
Total equity, $m
  888
  863
  980
  1,103
  1,234
  1,372
  1,516
  1,668
  1,826
  1,992
  2,164
  2,343
  2,529
  2,723
  2,924
  3,133
  3,350
  3,576
  3,811
  4,055
  4,309
  4,574
  4,850
  5,137
  5,437
  5,750
  6,076
  6,417
  6,772
  7,144
  7,533
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,184
  1,202
  1,365
  1,536
  1,719
  1,911
  2,112
  2,323
  2,543
  2,774
  3,014
  3,263
  3,522
  3,792
  4,072
  4,363
  4,666
  4,981
  5,308
  5,648
  6,002
  6,371
  6,755
  7,155
  7,572
  8,008
  8,462
  8,937
  9,432
  9,950
  10,492
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.050
  0.090
  0.120
  0.150
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  156
  176
  198
  221
  245
  270
  297
  325
  354
  384
  419
  451
  485
  520
  557
  595
  635
  676
  719
  763
  809
  858
  908
  961
  1,015
  1,072
  1,132
  1,194
  1,260
  1,328
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  25
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  132
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
Funds from operations, $m
  -21
  183
  206
  231
  257
  285
  314
  345
  376
  410
  444
  479
  516
  555
  595
  637
  681
  726
  773
  823
  874
  927
  982
  1,040
  1,100
  1,163
  1,228
  1,297
  1,368
  1,443
  1,521
Change in working capital, $m
  -85
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  227
  237
  248
  259
  270
Cash from operations, $m
  64
  114
  125
  145
  166
  189
  214
  239
  266
  295
  324
  354
  387
  420
  455
  492
  530
  569
  610
  653
  697
  743
  790
  840
  892
  945
  1,001
  1,060
  1,121
  1,184
  1,250
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -68
  -43
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -64
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -235
  -247
  -260
  -273
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  71
  77
  92
  108
  126
  145
  165
  187
  210
  234
  257
  284
  311
  339
  369
  399
  431
  464
  499
  534
  571
  609
  649
  691
  734
  779
  825
  874
  925
  977
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  11
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  114
  122
  140
  159
  180
  202
  225
  249
  275
  301
  328
  357
  387
  418
  451
  485
  520
  556
  594
  634
  675
  718
  762
  808
  857
  907
  959
  1,014
  1,071
  1,130
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -127
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -287
  -300
  -313
  -326
  -341
  -356
  -372
  -389
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  133
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  138
  6
  17
  29
  42
  57
  73
  91
  109
  129
  149
  170
  193
  217
  242
  267
  294
  322
  350
  380
  410
  442
  475
  509
  544
  580
  618
  658
  699
  741
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  133
  5
  14
  24
  33
  41
  50
  57
  63
  68
  71
  73
  73
  73
  71
  68
  64
  59
  54
  48
  42
  37
  31
  26
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets men’s and women’s apparel. It operates through two segments: Wholesale Operations and Retail Operations. The company’s products include outerwear, dresses, sportswear, swimwear, women’s suits, and women’s performance wear; and women’s handbags, footwear, small leather goods, cold weather accessories, and luggage. It markets swimwear, resort wear, and related accessories under the Vilebrequin brand; footwear, apparel, and accessories under Bass and G.H. Bass brands; and apparel products under Andrew Marc, Marc New York, Jessica Howard, Eliza J and Black Rivet, Weejuns, and other private retail labels. G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. also licenses its products under the Calvin Klein, ck Calvin Klein, Karl Lagerfeld, Guess, Guess?, Kenneth Cole NY, Reaction Kenneth Cole, Cole Haan, Levi's, Vince Camuto, Tommy Hilfiger, Jessica Simpson, Ivanka Trump, Jones New York, Ellen Tracy, Kensie, Dockers, Wilsons, G-III Sports by Carl Banks, and G-III for Her brands, as well as have licenses with the National Football League, Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, Touch by Alyssa Milano, Hands High, Collegiate Licensing Company, Major League Soccer, and Starter. The company offers its products to department, specialty, and mass merchant retail stores in the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Far East; and distributes products through its retail stores, as well as through G.H. Bass, Wilsons Leather, Vilebrequin, and Andrew Marc Websites. As of January 31, 2016, it operated 199 Wilsons Leather stores, 163 G.H. Bass stores, and 5 Calvin Klein performance stores. G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. was founded in 1956 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  G-III Apparel Group (GIII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.7
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 48.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
EBITDA Margin 4.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

GIII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GIII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2386 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by G-III Apparel Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of G-III Apparel Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GIII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GIII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of G-III Apparel Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of G-III Apparel Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GIII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GIII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for G-III Apparel Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for G-III Apparel Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GIII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GIII are equal to 7.3%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in G-III Apparel Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GIII is equal to 22%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $888 million for G-III Apparel Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.881 million for G-III Apparel Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of G-III Apparel Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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Stock chart of GIII Financial statements of GIII
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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