Intrinsic value of G-III Apparel Group - GIII

Previous Close

$47.26

  Intrinsic Value

$41.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-13%

Previous close

$47.26

 
Intrinsic value

$41.13

 
Up/down potential

-13%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of GIII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.79
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,386
  2,434
  2,490
  2,554
  2,626
  2,705
  2,792
  2,888
  2,990
  3,101
  3,220
  3,348
  3,484
  3,628
  3,782
  3,945
  4,118
  4,301
  4,495
  4,699
  4,915
  5,143
  5,383
  5,636
  5,903
  6,184
  6,480
  6,792
  7,119
  7,464
  7,827
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,240
  2,290
  2,347
  2,411
  2,481
  2,559
  2,644
  2,735
  2,834
  2,940
  2,978
  3,098
  3,227
  3,364
  3,509
  3,663
  3,826
  3,998
  4,180
  4,372
  4,574
  4,788
  5,013
  5,251
  5,501
  5,764
  6,041
  6,332
  6,639
  6,961
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,293
  2,240
  2,290
  2,347
  2,411
  2,481
  2,559
  2,644
  2,735
  2,834
  2,940
  2,978
  3,098
  3,227
  3,364
  3,509
  3,663
  3,826
  3,998
  4,180
  4,372
  4,574
  4,788
  5,013
  5,251
  5,501
  5,764
  6,041
  6,332
  6,639
  6,961
Operating income, $m
  93
  194
  200
  207
  215
  224
  233
  244
  255
  268
  281
  370
  385
  401
  418
  436
  455
  476
  497
  520
  543
  569
  595
  623
  653
  684
  716
  751
  787
  825
  865
EBITDA, $m
  125
  325
  332
  341
  350
  361
  372
  385
  399
  414
  429
  446
  465
  484
  504
  526
  549
  574
  599
  627
  655
  686
  718
  752
  787
  825
  864
  906
  949
  995
  1,044
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  115
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
Earnings before tax, $m
  78
  162
  167
  173
  180
  187
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  319
  331
  344
  357
  372
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  498
  521
  544
  569
  595
  622
  651
  682
  714
Tax expense, $m
  26
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
Net income, $m
  52
  119
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  233
  242
  251
  261
  271
  282
  294
  307
  320
  334
  348
  364
  380
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  498
  521

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,852
  1,888
  1,931
  1,981
  2,037
  2,099
  2,166
  2,240
  2,320
  2,406
  2,498
  2,597
  2,703
  2,815
  2,934
  3,061
  3,195
  3,337
  3,487
  3,646
  3,813
  3,990
  4,176
  4,373
  4,580
  4,798
  5,027
  5,269
  5,523
  5,791
  6,072
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,772
  1,888
  1,931
  1,981
  2,037
  2,099
  2,166
  2,240
  2,320
  2,406
  2,498
  2,597
  2,703
  2,815
  2,934
  3,061
  3,195
  3,337
  3,487
  3,646
  3,813
  3,990
  4,176
  4,373
  4,580
  4,798
  5,027
  5,269
  5,523
  5,791
  6,072
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.347
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
Average production assets, $m
  384
  555
  568
  582
  599
  617
  637
  658
  682
  707
  734
  763
  794
  827
  862
  900
  939
  981
  1,025
  1,071
  1,121
  1,173
  1,227
  1,285
  1,346
  1,410
  1,477
  1,548
  1,623
  1,702
  1,784
Working capital, $m
  568
  270
  276
  283
  291
  300
  310
  321
  332
  344
  357
  372
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  499
  522
  546
  571
  598
  626
  655
  686
  719
  754
  790
  829
  869
Total debt, $m
  462
  479
  498
  520
  545
  573
  604
  637
  672
  711
  753
  797
  844
  895
  948
  1,005
  1,065
  1,129
  1,196
  1,268
  1,343
  1,422
  1,506
  1,594
  1,687
  1,785
  1,888
  1,997
  2,111
  2,231
  2,357
Total liabilities, $m
  831
  848
  867
  890
  915
  942
  973
  1,006
  1,042
  1,080
  1,122
  1,166
  1,213
  1,264
  1,317
  1,374
  1,434
  1,498
  1,566
  1,637
  1,712
  1,791
  1,875
  1,963
  2,056
  2,154
  2,257
  2,366
  2,480
  2,600
  2,726
Total equity, $m
  1,021
  1,040
  1,064
  1,092
  1,122
  1,156
  1,194
  1,234
  1,278
  1,326
  1,377
  1,431
  1,489
  1,551
  1,617
  1,686
  1,760
  1,839
  1,921
  2,009
  2,101
  2,198
  2,301
  2,409
  2,523
  2,644
  2,770
  2,903
  3,043
  3,191
  3,346
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,852
  1,888
  1,931
  1,982
  2,037
  2,098
  2,167
  2,240
  2,320
  2,406
  2,499
  2,597
  2,702
  2,815
  2,934
  3,060
  3,194
  3,337
  3,487
  3,646
  3,813
  3,989
  4,176
  4,372
  4,579
  4,798
  5,027
  5,269
  5,523
  5,791
  6,072
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.452
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.531
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  119
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  233
  242
  251
  261
  271
  282
  294
  307
  320
  334
  348
  364
  380
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  498
  521
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  131
  132
  134
  135
  137
  139
  141
  143
  146
  149
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  249
  254
  260
  266
  273
  281
  289
  298
  308
  318
  309
  321
  334
  347
  361
  376
  392
  409
  427
  446
  466
  487
  509
  532
  556
  582
  609
  638
  668
  699
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Cash from operations, $m
  106
  244
  248
  253
  258
  264
  271
  279
  287
  296
  305
  295
  306
  318
  330
  343
  357
  372
  388
  404
  422
  440
  460
  481
  502
  525
  549
  575
  601
  630
  659
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -526
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
Free cash flow, $m
  -420
  178
  180
  181
  184
  186
  190
  193
  198
  202
  207
  193
  199
  205
  212
  220
  228
  236
  246
  255
  265
  276
  288
  300
  313
  327
  341
  356
  372
  389
  406
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  374
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  368
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -53
  195
  199
  204
  209
  214
  220
  226
  233
  241
  249
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  288
  300
  313
  326
  341
  356
  372
  388
  406
  424
  444
  464
  486
  509
  533
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -133
  -19
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  176
  175
  176
  178
  180
  183
  186
  189
  193
  198
  182
  188
  194
  200
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  292
  304
  317
  331
  346
  361
  378
Discount rate, %
 
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  167
  159
  151
  143
  135
  127
  119
  111
  103
  95
  78
  72
  65
  58
  52
  45
  39
  34
  29
  24
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. designs, manufactures and markets a range of apparel products. The Company operates through two segments: wholesale operations and retail operations. Its apparel products include outerwear, dresses, sportswear, swimwear, women's suits and women's performance wear, as well as women's handbags, footwear, small leather goods, cold weather accessories and luggage. The Company's owned brands include Donna Karan, DKNY, DKNY Jeans, Vilebrequin, G-III Sports by Carl Banks, Eliza J, Black Rivet and Jessica Howard. It has fashion licenses under the Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Karl Lagerfeld, Kenneth Cole, Cole Haan and Dockers brands. Through its team sports business, it has licenses with the National Football League, National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball and National Hockey League. It also operates retail stores under the Donna Karan, Wilsons Leather, Bass, G.H. Bass & Co., Vilebrequin and Calvin Klein Performance names.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  G-III Apparel Group (GIII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 44.2
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.2%
Total Debt to Equity 45.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
EBITDA Margin 5.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

GIII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GIII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2386 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by G-III Apparel Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of G-III Apparel Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GIII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for GIII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of G-III Apparel Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of G-III Apparel Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GIII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GIII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.8% for G-III Apparel Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for G-III Apparel Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GIII stock is equal to 0.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GIII are equal to 22.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in G-III Apparel Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GIII is equal to 11.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1021 million for G-III Apparel Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46 million for G-III Apparel Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of G-III Apparel Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 4 Stocks to Ride the Surge in Retail Sales   [Jun-15-18 10:37AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Anatomy of Success: G-III Apparel (GIII)   [Jun-11-18 01:30PM  Zacks]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [Jun-05-18 04:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ G-III Apparel: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:18AM  Associated Press]
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▶ G-III Apparel reports 4Q loss   [07:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Top Stocks to Fall for on Valentine's Day   [Feb-14-18 09:13AM  Zacks]
Financial statements of GIII
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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