Intrinsic value of GasLog Partners - GLOP

Previous Close

$22.80

  Intrinsic Value

$6.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

  Value-price divergence*

+31%

Previous close

$22.80

 
Intrinsic value

$6.55

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+31%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GLOP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.23
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  229
  234
  239
  245
  252
  260
  268
  277
  287
  298
  309
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  395
  413
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  541
  567
  594
  622
  652
  683
  716
  751
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
Total operating expenses, $m
  113
  118
  120
  123
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  146
  150
  156
  160
  165
  170
  176
  181
  188
  195
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  239
  247
  256
  265
  275
  285
  296
Operating income, $m
  116
  116
  118
  122
  125
  129
  134
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  225
  237
  250
  264
  278
  294
  310
  328
  346
  366
  386
  408
  431
  455
EBITDA, $m
  166
  167
  171
  175
  180
  186
  193
  200
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
  300
  315
  331
  349
  367
  386
  407
  429
  452
  476
  502
  529
  558
  588
  620
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
Earnings before tax, $m
  77
  89
  91
  93
  96
  100
  103
  108
  112
  118
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  188
  198
  210
  222
  235
  248
  263
  278
  294
  311
  329
  348
  369
Tax expense, $m
  0
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
Net income, $m
  77
  65
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  162
  171
  181
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  269

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,489
  1,469
  1,503
  1,541
  1,585
  1,633
  1,686
  1,743
  1,805
  1,872
  1,944
  2,021
  2,103
  2,190
  2,283
  2,381
  2,486
  2,596
  2,713
  2,837
  2,967
  3,104
  3,249
  3,402
  3,563
  3,733
  3,912
  4,100
  4,297
  4,506
  4,724
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,437
  1,469
  1,503
  1,541
  1,585
  1,633
  1,686
  1,743
  1,805
  1,872
  1,944
  2,021
  2,103
  2,190
  2,283
  2,381
  2,486
  2,596
  2,713
  2,837
  2,967
  3,104
  3,249
  3,402
  3,563
  3,733
  3,912
  4,100
  4,297
  4,506
  4,724
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
Average production assets, $m
  1,442
  1,471
  1,505
  1,543
  1,587
  1,635
  1,688
  1,745
  1,807
  1,874
  1,946
  2,023
  2,105
  2,193
  2,286
  2,384
  2,489
  2,599
  2,716
  2,840
  2,970
  3,108
  3,253
  3,406
  3,568
  3,738
  3,916
  4,105
  4,303
  4,511
  4,730
Working capital, $m
  -16
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
Total debt, $m
  814
  787
  806
  827
  851
  878
  908
  940
  974
  1,012
  1,052
  1,095
  1,140
  1,189
  1,241
  1,296
  1,354
  1,416
  1,481
  1,550
  1,622
  1,699
  1,780
  1,865
  1,955
  2,050
  2,150
  2,255
  2,365
  2,481
  2,603
Total liabilities, $m
  847
  820
  839
  860
  884
  911
  941
  973
  1,007
  1,045
  1,085
  1,128
  1,173
  1,222
  1,274
  1,329
  1,387
  1,449
  1,514
  1,583
  1,655
  1,732
  1,813
  1,898
  1,988
  2,083
  2,183
  2,288
  2,398
  2,514
  2,636
Total equity, $m
  642
  649
  664
  681
  700
  722
  745
  770
  798
  827
  859
  893
  929
  968
  1,009
  1,053
  1,099
  1,148
  1,199
  1,254
  1,311
  1,372
  1,436
  1,504
  1,575
  1,650
  1,729
  1,812
  1,899
  1,991
  2,088
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,489
  1,469
  1,503
  1,541
  1,584
  1,633
  1,686
  1,743
  1,805
  1,872
  1,944
  2,021
  2,102
  2,190
  2,283
  2,382
  2,486
  2,597
  2,713
  2,837
  2,966
  3,104
  3,249
  3,402
  3,563
  3,733
  3,912
  4,100
  4,297
  4,505
  4,724
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.268
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.411
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  77
  65
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  162
  171
  181
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  269
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  149
  157
  164
Funds from operations, $m
  123
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  316
  333
  351
  370
  390
  411
  433
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  144
  116
  119
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  302
  318
  335
  353
  373
  393
  414
  437
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -157
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -294
  -309
  -324
  -341
  -357
  -376
Free cash flow, $m
  137
  38
  34
  31
  29
  27
  25
  24
  23
  22
  22
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  57
  61
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -57
  18
  19
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -84
  18
  19
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  55
  53
  53
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  145
  153
  163
  173
  183
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -30
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  48
  38
  36
  34
  33
  31
  31
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  81
  86
Discount rate, %
 
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  44
  32
  28
  24
  20
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

GasLog Partners LP, a master limited partnership, focuses on owning, operating, and acquiring liquefied natural gas carriers under multi-year charters. The company has a fleet of nine LNG carriers with an average carrying capacity of approximately 149,500 cubic meters, each of which had a multi-year time charter. GasLog Partners LP was founded in 2014 and is based in Monaco.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GasLog Partners (GLOP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.4
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -59.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 119.8%
Total Debt to Equity 126.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Equity 12.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 77.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.1%
EBITDA Margin 66.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.7%
Operating Margin 50.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 33.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Net Profit Margin 33.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 85.7%

GLOP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GLOP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $229 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GasLog Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of GasLog Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GLOP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for GLOP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GasLog Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GasLog Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GLOP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $69 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GLOP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for GasLog Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GasLog Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GLOP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GLOP are equal to 629.7%.

Life of production assets of 28.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GasLog Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GLOP is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $642 million for GasLog Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.047 million for GasLog Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GasLog Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
BPL Buckeye Partne 56.23 6.04  str.sell
GLOG GasLog 15.90 2.86  str.sell
ASC Ardmore Shippi 7.20 3.10  str.sell
GMLP Golar LNG Part 20.01 14.42  sell
GLNG Golar LNG 20.61 4.59  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ What Are Analysts Recommendations for GasLog Partners?   [Jul-17-17 07:38AM  Market Realist]
▶ Will GasLog Partners 2017 EBITDA Rise?   [Jul-14-17 03:35PM  Market Realist]
▶ Morgan Stanley Upgrades GasLog Partners   [Jun-30-17 09:07AM  Market Realist]
▶ Recommendations Still Unchanged for Höegh LNG Partners   [Jun-29-17 05:35PM  Market Realist]
▶ Morgan Stanley Upgrades GasLog   [04:06PM  Market Realist]
▶ 3 Energy Stocks You May Be Overlooking   [Jun-26-17 11:05AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why LNG Transport Firms' Stock Prices Sank in May   [Jun-09-17 04:21PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Top Shipping Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Jun-06-17 12:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Is GasLog a Great Stock for Value Investors?   [May-25-17 09:30AM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Top Dividend Stocks in Shipping   [May-18-17 05:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ What Analysts Expect for GasLogs 1Q17 Earnings   [Apr-04-17 09:06AM  Market Realist]
▶ Alerian Index Series March 2017 Index Review   [Mar-10-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Revenue Estimates for Golar LNGs 4Q16   [07:38AM  Market Realist]
▶ GasLog Will Remain a Value Creator   [Feb-22-17 12:00PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ How To Cruise Through a Frozen Gas Market   [11:49AM  at Bloomberg]
▶ GasLog Ltd. and GasLog Partners LP Announce CFO Transition   [Jan-16-17 11:42AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Essendant Inc (ESND)   [04:00AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of GLOP Financial statements of GLOP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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