Intrinsic value of Global Partners - GLP

Previous Close

$17.95

  Intrinsic Value

$0.72

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$17.95

 
Intrinsic value

$0.72

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GLP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -20.12
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
Revenue, $m
  8,240
  8,767
  9,316
  9,888
  10,483
  11,103
  11,750
  12,425
  13,130
  13,865
  14,634
  15,437
  16,277
  17,155
  18,074
  19,035
  20,042
  21,096
  22,200
  23,357
  24,569
  25,839
  27,170
  28,566
  30,030
  31,565
  33,175
  34,864
  36,635
  38,494
  40,444
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,634
  8,111
  8,606
  9,123
  9,661
  10,222
  10,807
  11,419
  12,057
  12,723
  13,390
  14,119
  14,880
  15,677
  16,511
  17,385
  18,299
  19,257
  20,260
  21,311
  22,413
  23,568
  24,779
  26,049
  27,380
  28,777
  30,242
  31,778
  33,391
  35,082
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,273
  1,305
  1,337
  1,371
  1,405
  1,440
  1,476
  1,513
  1,551
  1,590
  1,630
  1,670
  1,712
  1,755
  1,799
  1,844
  1,890
  1,937
  1,986
  2,035
  2,086
  2,138
  2,192
  2,246
  2,303
  2,360
  2,419
  2,480
  2,542
  2,605
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,392
  8,907
  9,416
  9,943
  10,494
  11,066
  11,662
  12,283
  12,932
  13,608
  14,313
  15,020
  15,789
  16,592
  17,432
  18,310
  19,229
  20,189
  21,194
  22,246
  23,346
  24,499
  25,706
  26,971
  28,295
  29,683
  31,137
  32,661
  34,258
  35,933
  37,687
Operating income, $m
  -152
  -140
  -99
  -56
  -11
  37
  88
  141
  198
  258
  321
  417
  488
  562
  641
  725
  813
  907
  1,006
  1,111
  1,222
  1,340
  1,464
  1,596
  1,735
  1,882
  2,038
  2,203
  2,377
  2,562
  2,757
EBITDA, $m
  -40
  -18
  29
  78
  130
  184
  242
  302
  366
  434
  505
  580
  659
  743
  832
  926
  1,025
  1,130
  1,241
  1,358
  1,482
  1,613
  1,751
  1,897
  2,052
  2,216
  2,389
  2,571
  2,764
  2,968
  3,184
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  64
  71
  78
  86
  94
  102
  110
  119
  129
  138
  149
  159
  170
  182
  194
  207
  220
  234
  249
  264
  280
  297
  315
  333
  353
  373
  394
  417
  440
  465
Earnings before tax, $m
  -239
  -204
  -170
  -134
  -96
  -56
  -14
  31
  79
  129
  182
  268
  328
  392
  459
  531
  606
  687
  772
  862
  958
  1,059
  1,167
  1,281
  1,402
  1,530
  1,665
  1,809
  1,961
  2,122
  2,292
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  8
  21
  35
  49
  72
  89
  106
  124
  143
  164
  185
  208
  233
  259
  286
  315
  346
  378
  413
  450
  488
  529
  573
  619
Net income, $m
  -199
  -204
  -170
  -134
  -96
  -56
  -14
  23
  57
  94
  133
  196
  240
  286
  335
  387
  443
  501
  563
  629
  699
  773
  852
  935
  1,023
  1,117
  1,216
  1,320
  1,431
  1,549
  1,673

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  70
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,564
  2,654
  2,820
  2,993
  3,173
  3,361
  3,556
  3,761
  3,974
  4,197
  4,429
  4,672
  4,926
  5,192
  5,470
  5,761
  6,066
  6,385
  6,719
  7,069
  7,436
  7,820
  8,223
  8,646
  9,089
  9,554
  10,041
  10,552
  11,088
  11,651
  12,241
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,494
  2,654
  2,820
  2,993
  3,173
  3,361
  3,556
  3,761
  3,974
  4,197
  4,429
  4,672
  4,926
  5,192
  5,470
  5,761
  6,066
  6,385
  6,719
  7,069
  7,436
  7,820
  8,223
  8,646
  9,089
  9,554
  10,041
  10,552
  11,088
  11,651
  12,241
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.304
  3.303
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.303
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
Average production assets, $m
  1,242
  1,324
  1,407
  1,493
  1,583
  1,677
  1,774
  1,876
  1,983
  2,094
  2,210
  2,331
  2,458
  2,590
  2,729
  2,874
  3,026
  3,185
  3,352
  3,527
  3,710
  3,902
  4,103
  4,314
  4,535
  4,766
  5,009
  5,264
  5,532
  5,813
  6,107
Working capital, $m
  276
  509
  540
  573
  608
  644
  682
  721
  762
  804
  849
  895
  944
  995
  1,048
  1,104
  1,162
  1,224
  1,288
  1,355
  1,425
  1,499
  1,576
  1,657
  1,742
  1,831
  1,924
  2,022
  2,125
  2,233
  2,346
Total debt, $m
  1,300
  1,363
  1,503
  1,649
  1,801
  1,959
  2,123
  2,295
  2,475
  2,662
  2,858
  3,063
  3,277
  3,501
  3,735
  3,980
  4,237
  4,505
  4,786
  5,081
  5,390
  5,714
  6,053
  6,409
  6,782
  7,173
  7,583
  8,014
  8,465
  8,939
  9,436
Total liabilities, $m
  2,171
  2,234
  2,374
  2,520
  2,672
  2,830
  2,994
  3,166
  3,346
  3,533
  3,729
  3,934
  4,148
  4,372
  4,606
  4,851
  5,108
  5,376
  5,657
  5,952
  6,261
  6,585
  6,924
  7,280
  7,653
  8,044
  8,454
  8,885
  9,336
  9,810
  10,307
Total equity, $m
  393
  419
  446
  473
  501
  531
  562
  594
  628
  663
  700
  738
  778
  820
  864
  910
  958
  1,009
  1,062
  1,117
  1,175
  1,236
  1,299
  1,366
  1,436
  1,509
  1,586
  1,667
  1,752
  1,841
  1,934
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,564
  2,653
  2,820
  2,993
  3,173
  3,361
  3,556
  3,760
  3,974
  4,196
  4,429
  4,672
  4,926
  5,192
  5,470
  5,761
  6,066
  6,385
  6,719
  7,069
  7,436
  7,821
  8,223
  8,646
  9,089
  9,553
  10,040
  10,552
  11,088
  11,651
  12,241
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.308
  3.250
  3.370
  3.490
  3.590
  3.690
  3.780
  3.860
  3.940
  4.020
  4.080
  4.150
  4.210
  4.270
  4.320
  4.370
  4.420
  4.470
  4.510
  4.550
  4.590
  4.620
  4.660
  4.690
  4.720
  4.750
  4.780
  4.810
  4.830
  4.860
  4.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.130
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -199
  -204
  -170
  -134
  -96
  -56
  -14
  23
  57
  94
  133
  196
  240
  286
  335
  387
  443
  501
  563
  629
  699
  773
  852
  935
  1,023
  1,117
  1,216
  1,320
  1,431
  1,549
  1,673
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  112
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  234
  247
  259
  273
  287
  302
  317
  333
  350
  368
  387
  406
  427
Funds from operations, $m
  -320
  -82
  -42
  0
  44
  90
  140
  183
  226
  270
  317
  359
  412
  467
  526
  588
  654
  724
  798
  876
  959
  1,046
  1,139
  1,237
  1,340
  1,450
  1,566
  1,689
  1,818
  1,955
  2,100
Change in working capital, $m
  -200
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
Cash from operations, $m
  -120
  -113
  -74
  -33
  9
  55
  102
  144
  185
  227
  273
  312
  363
  416
  473
  533
  596
  663
  734
  809
  888
  973
  1,062
  1,156
  1,255
  1,361
  1,473
  1,591
  1,715
  1,848
  1,987
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -146
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -247
  -259
  -273
  -287
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -406
New CAPEX, $m
  -71
  -82
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -281
  -294
Cash from investing activities, $m
  6
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -250
  -262
  -276
  -290
  -305
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -371
  -390
  -409
  -430
  -451
  -474
  -498
  -523
  -549
  -576
  -605
  -636
  -668
  -700
Free cash flow, $m
  -114
  -282
  -250
  -218
  -185
  -150
  -113
  -82
  -53
  -22
  10
  37
  73
  112
  153
  197
  243
  292
  344
  400
  459
  521
  588
  658
  733
  812
  896
  985
  1,080
  1,180
  1,286
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  187
  133
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  324
  339
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
  451
  474
  497
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  230
  196
  162
  125
  86
  45
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  185
  363
  336
  308
  277
  244
  210
  182
  180
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  324
  339
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
  451
  474
  497
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  82
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  100
  127
  165
  206
  241
  287
  336
  387
  442
  499
  561
  626
  695
  768
  845
  927
  1,014
  1,106
  1,203
  1,306
  1,416
  1,531
  1,654
  1,783
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  255
  -230
  -196
  -162
  -125
  -86
  -45
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -149
  -110
  -73
  -33
  8
  52
  68
  93
  130
  169
  203
  247
  294
  343
  396
  451
  510
  573
  639
  710
  784
  863
  947
  1,036
  1,130
  1,229
  1,335
  1,447
  1,565
  1,690
Discount rate, %
 
  11.60
  12.18
  12.79
  13.43
  14.10
  14.80
  15.55
  16.32
  17.14
  18.00
  18.90
  19.84
  20.83
  21.87
  22.97
  24.12
  25.32
  26.59
  27.92
  29.31
  30.78
  32.32
  33.93
  35.63
  37.41
  39.28
  41.25
  43.31
  45.47
  47.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -133
  -87
  -51
  -20
  4
  23
  25
  28
  31
  32
  30
  28
  25
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  72.7
  55.9
  45.3
  38.7
  34.9
  33.1
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7
  32.7

Global Partners LP is a midstream logistics and marketing company. It is engaged in the purchasing, selling, storing and logistics of transporting petroleum and related products, including gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, distillates, residual oil, renewable fuels, crude oil, natural gas and propane. Its segments include Wholesale, Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations and Commercial. In Wholesale segment, the Company engages in the logistics of selling, gathering, storage and transportation of refined petroleum products, renewable fuels, crude oil and propane. In Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations segment, gasoline distribution includes sales of branded and unbranded gasoline to gasoline station operators and sub-jobbers. The Commercial segment includes sales and deliveries to end user customers in the public sector and to commercial and industrial end users of unbranded gasoline, home heating oil, diesel, kerosene, residual oil, bunker fuel and natural gas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Global Partners (GLP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -20.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio -0
LT Debt to Equity 260.8%
Total Debt to Equity 330.8%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital -11.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Equity -38.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Asset Turnover 3.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 6.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
EBITDA Margin -0.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Operating Margin -1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Net Profit Margin -2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Payout Ratio -31.7%

GLP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GLP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8240 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Global Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Global Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GLP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.6%, whose default value for GLP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Global Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Global Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GLP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1242 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GLP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Global Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Global Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GLP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GLP are equal to 15.1%.

Life of production assets of 14.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Global Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GLP is equal to 5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $393 million for Global Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.098 million for Global Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Global Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Global Partners LP (GLP)?   [06:59AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ PUC approves Portland General Electric tank farm sale, disappointing environmentalists   [Jun-27-17 04:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ PUC delays vote on PGE fuel-tank sale opposed by environmentalists   [Jun-14-17 09:20AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for April 5th   [Apr-05-17 09:06AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for March 30th   [Mar-30-17 11:03AM  Zacks]
▶ Global Partners LP Files 2016 Annual Report on Form 10-K   [Mar-10-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Singapore's Rare Buyout Bird   [Jan-15-17 05:00PM  at Bloomberg]
▶ Warehouse Owner GLP Seeks Bidders for Singapore Company   [Jan-05-17 01:16AM  at Bloomberg]
Financial statements of GLP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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