Intrinsic value of Global Partners - GLP

Previous Close

$17.40

  Intrinsic Value

$48.27

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+177%

Previous close

$17.40

 
Intrinsic value

$48.27

 
Up/down potential

+177%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of GLP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -20.12
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  8,240
  9,661
  10,431
  11,232
  12,064
  12,928
  13,826
  14,760
  15,731
  16,741
  17,792
  18,887
  20,027
  21,214
  22,453
  23,745
  25,094
  26,502
  27,973
  29,510
  31,117
  32,798
  34,556
  36,396
  38,323
  40,340
  42,452
  44,665
  46,984
  49,415
  51,962
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,803
  6,263
  6,741
  7,237
  7,753
  8,289
  8,847
  9,426
  10,029
  10,656
  11,273
  11,953
  12,662
  13,401
  14,173
  14,978
  15,818
  16,696
  17,614
  18,573
  19,576
  20,625
  21,724
  22,873
  24,077
  25,338
  26,659
  28,043
  29,494
  31,014
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  3,595
  3,674
  3,755
  3,838
  3,922
  4,009
  4,097
  4,187
  4,279
  4,373
  4,469
  4,568
  4,668
  4,771
  4,876
  4,983
  5,093
  5,205
  5,319
  5,436
  5,556
  5,678
  5,803
  5,931
  6,061
  6,195
  6,331
  6,470
  6,613
  6,758
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,392
  9,398
  9,937
  10,496
  11,075
  11,675
  12,298
  12,944
  13,613
  14,308
  15,029
  15,742
  16,521
  17,330
  18,172
  19,049
  19,961
  20,911
  21,901
  22,933
  24,009
  25,132
  26,303
  27,527
  28,804
  30,138
  31,533
  32,990
  34,513
  36,107
  37,772
Operating income, $m
  -152
  263
  494
  736
  988
  1,252
  1,528
  1,817
  2,118
  2,433
  2,763
  3,144
  3,506
  3,884
  4,281
  4,697
  5,133
  5,591
  6,072
  6,577
  7,108
  7,666
  8,253
  8,870
  9,518
  10,201
  10,919
  11,675
  12,471
  13,308
  14,190
EBITDA, $m
  -40
  455
  699
  953
  1,220
  1,498
  1,788
  2,091
  2,408
  2,739
  3,086
  3,448
  3,828
  4,226
  4,642
  5,079
  5,537
  6,018
  6,522
  7,052
  7,609
  8,194
  8,809
  9,456
  10,135
  10,851
  11,603
  12,394
  13,227
  14,104
  15,026
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  79
  76
  87
  99
  112
  124
  138
  152
  166
  182
  197
  214
  231
  249
  267
  287
  307
  328
  350
  373
  397
  422
  448
  476
  505
  535
  567
  600
  635
  671
Earnings before tax, $m
  -239
  184
  418
  649
  889
  1,141
  1,404
  1,679
  1,966
  2,267
  2,581
  2,947
  3,292
  3,653
  4,032
  4,429
  4,847
  5,284
  5,744
  6,227
  6,735
  7,269
  7,831
  8,421
  9,042
  9,696
  10,384
  11,109
  11,871
  12,674
  13,519
Tax expense, $m
  0
  50
  113
  175
  240
  308
  379
  453
  531
  612
  697
  796
  889
  986
  1,089
  1,196
  1,309
  1,427
  1,551
  1,681
  1,819
  1,963
  2,114
  2,274
  2,441
  2,618
  2,804
  2,999
  3,205
  3,422
  3,650
Net income, $m
  -199
  134
  305
  474
  649
  833
  1,025
  1,225
  1,435
  1,655
  1,884
  2,151
  2,403
  2,667
  2,943
  3,234
  3,538
  3,858
  4,193
  4,546
  4,917
  5,306
  5,716
  6,147
  6,601
  7,078
  7,581
  8,109
  8,666
  9,252
  9,869

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  70
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,564
  2,513
  2,713
  2,921
  3,137
  3,362
  3,596
  3,839
  4,091
  4,354
  4,627
  4,912
  5,208
  5,517
  5,840
  6,176
  6,526
  6,893
  7,275
  7,675
  8,093
  8,530
  8,987
  9,466
  9,967
  10,491
  11,041
  11,616
  12,220
  12,852
  13,514
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,494
  2,513
  2,713
  2,921
  3,137
  3,362
  3,596
  3,839
  4,091
  4,354
  4,627
  4,912
  5,208
  5,517
  5,840
  6,176
  6,526
  6,893
  7,275
  7,675
  8,093
  8,530
  8,987
  9,466
  9,967
  10,491
  11,041
  11,616
  12,220
  12,852
  13,514
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.304
  3.844
  3.845
  3.845
  3.846
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
  3.845
Average production assets, $m
  1,242
  1,555
  1,679
  1,808
  1,942
  2,081
  2,226
  2,376
  2,533
  2,695
  2,865
  3,041
  3,224
  3,416
  3,615
  3,823
  4,040
  4,267
  4,504
  4,751
  5,010
  5,280
  5,564
  5,860
  6,170
  6,495
  6,835
  7,191
  7,564
  7,956
  8,366
Working capital, $m
  276
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  146
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
Total debt, $m
  1,300
  1,180
  1,360
  1,548
  1,742
  1,945
  2,155
  2,374
  2,601
  2,837
  3,083
  3,339
  3,606
  3,884
  4,174
  4,477
  4,792
  5,122
  5,466
  5,826
  6,202
  6,596
  7,007
  7,438
  7,889
  8,361
  8,855
  9,373
  9,916
  10,485
  11,081
Total liabilities, $m
  2,171
  2,261
  2,442
  2,629
  2,824
  3,026
  3,236
  3,455
  3,682
  3,919
  4,165
  4,421
  4,688
  4,966
  5,256
  5,558
  5,874
  6,203
  6,548
  6,907
  7,284
  7,677
  8,089
  8,519
  8,970
  9,442
  9,937
  10,455
  10,998
  11,567
  12,163
Total equity, $m
  393
  251
  271
  292
  314
  336
  360
  384
  409
  435
  463
  491
  521
  552
  584
  618
  653
  689
  728
  767
  809
  853
  899
  947
  997
  1,049
  1,104
  1,162
  1,222
  1,285
  1,351
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,564
  2,512
  2,713
  2,921
  3,138
  3,362
  3,596
  3,839
  4,091
  4,354
  4,628
  4,912
  5,209
  5,518
  5,840
  6,176
  6,527
  6,892
  7,276
  7,674
  8,093
  8,530
  8,988
  9,466
  9,967
  10,491
  11,041
  11,617
  12,220
  12,852
  13,514
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.308
  4.700
  5.010
  5.300
  5.550
  5.780
  5.990
  6.180
  6.360
  6.520
  6.660
  6.800
  6.920
  7.040
  7.150
  7.250
  7.340
  7.430
  7.510
  7.590
  7.660
  7.730
  7.800
  7.860
  7.920
  7.970
  8.020
  8.070
  8.120
  8.160
  8.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.130
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -199
  134
  305
  474
  649
  833
  1,025
  1,225
  1,435
  1,655
  1,884
  2,151
  2,403
  2,667
  2,943
  3,234
  3,538
  3,858
  4,193
  4,546
  4,917
  5,306
  5,716
  6,147
  6,601
  7,078
  7,581
  8,109
  8,666
  9,252
  9,869
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  112
  192
  205
  218
  231
  245
  260
  275
  290
  306
  323
  304
  322
  342
  361
  382
  404
  427
  450
  475
  501
  528
  556
  586
  617
  649
  683
  719
  756
  796
  837
Funds from operations, $m
  -320
  326
  510
  691
  880
  1,078
  1,284
  1,500
  1,725
  1,961
  2,207
  2,455
  2,726
  3,008
  3,305
  3,616
  3,942
  4,284
  4,644
  5,021
  5,418
  5,834
  6,273
  6,733
  7,218
  7,728
  8,264
  8,828
  9,422
  10,047
  10,705
Change in working capital, $m
  -200
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  -120
  323
  507
  688
  877
  1,074
  1,281
  1,496
  1,721
  1,957
  2,203
  2,451
  2,721
  3,004
  3,300
  3,611
  3,937
  4,279
  4,638
  5,015
  5,411
  5,828
  6,266
  6,726
  7,210
  7,720
  8,256
  8,819
  9,413
  10,038
  10,695
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -143
  -156
  -168
  -181
  -194
  -208
  -223
  -238
  -253
  -270
  -286
  -304
  -322
  -342
  -361
  -382
  -404
  -427
  -450
  -475
  -501
  -528
  -556
  -586
  -617
  -649
  -683
  -719
  -756
  -796
New CAPEX, $m
  -71
  -123
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -283
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -340
  -356
  -373
  -391
  -410
Cash from investing activities, $m
  6
  -266
  -280
  -297
  -315
  -333
  -353
  -373
  -394
  -416
  -439
  -462
  -488
  -513
  -541
  -569
  -599
  -631
  -664
  -697
  -734
  -772
  -811
  -852
  -896
  -942
  -989
  -1,039
  -1,092
  -1,147
  -1,206
Free cash flow, $m
  -114
  57
  228
  391
  562
  741
  928
  1,123
  1,327
  1,541
  1,764
  1,988
  2,233
  2,490
  2,759
  3,041
  3,337
  3,648
  3,974
  4,317
  4,677
  5,056
  5,454
  5,873
  6,314
  6,778
  7,266
  7,780
  8,321
  8,890
  9,489
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  187
  -55
  180
  187
  195
  202
  210
  219
  227
  236
  246
  256
  267
  278
  290
  302
  316
  330
  344
  360
  376
  393
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  518
  543
  569
  596
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  113
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  185
  58
  180
  187
  195
  202
  210
  219
  227
  236
  246
  256
  267
  278
  290
  302
  316
  330
  344
  360
  376
  393
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  518
  543
  569
  596
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  116
  408
  579
  757
  943
  1,138
  1,342
  1,555
  1,777
  2,011
  2,245
  2,500
  2,768
  3,049
  3,344
  3,653
  3,978
  4,319
  4,677
  5,054
  5,450
  5,866
  6,304
  6,765
  7,250
  7,760
  8,298
  8,863
  9,459
  10,086
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  255
  -247
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -131
  388
  558
  735
  921
  1,115
  1,318
  1,530
  1,751
  1,983
  2,216
  2,471
  2,737
  3,017
  3,310
  3,618
  3,941
  4,280
  4,637
  5,012
  5,406
  5,820
  6,256
  6,715
  7,198
  7,706
  8,240
  8,803
  9,396
  10,019
Discount rate, %
 
  10.20
  10.71
  11.25
  11.81
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.82
  16.61
  17.45
  18.32
  19.23
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.77
  27.06
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.54
  36.27
  38.08
  39.99
  41.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -119
  316
  405
  471
  513
  535
  537
  523
  495
  456
  409
  359
  307
  257
  210
  167
  129
  98
  72
  51
  35
  24
  15
  10
  6
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1
  26.1

Global Partners LP is a midstream logistics and marketing company. It is engaged in the purchasing, selling, storing and logistics of transporting petroleum and related products, including gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, distillates, residual oil, renewable fuels, crude oil, natural gas and propane. Its segments include Wholesale, Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations and Commercial. In Wholesale segment, the Company engages in the logistics of selling, gathering, storage and transportation of refined petroleum products, renewable fuels, crude oil and propane. In Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations segment, gasoline distribution includes sales of branded and unbranded gasoline to gasoline station operators and sub-jobbers. The Commercial segment includes sales and deliveries to end user customers in the public sector and to commercial and industrial end users of unbranded gasoline, home heating oil, diesel, kerosene, residual oil, bunker fuel and natural gas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Global Partners (GLP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -20.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio -0
LT Debt to Equity 260.8%
Total Debt to Equity 330.8%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital -11.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Equity -38.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Asset Turnover 3.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 6.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
EBITDA Margin -0.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Operating Margin -1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Net Profit Margin -2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Payout Ratio -31.7%

GLP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GLP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8921 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Global Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Global Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GLP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.2%, whose default value for GLP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Global Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Global Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GLP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3518 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GLP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for Global Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Global Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GLP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GLP are equal to 16.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Global Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GLP is equal to 0.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4 million for Global Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34 million for Global Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Global Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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Financial statements of GLP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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