Intrinsic value of Global Partners - GLP

Previous Close

$17.80

  Intrinsic Value

$0.72

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

  Value-price divergence*

-109%

Previous close

$17.80

 
Intrinsic value

$0.72

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-109%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GLP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -20.12
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  8,240
  8,405
  8,598
  8,819
  9,067
  9,342
  9,644
  9,972
  10,328
  10,711
  11,122
  11,561
  12,031
  12,530
  13,061
  13,625
  14,222
  14,854
  15,522
  16,228
  16,974
  17,761
  18,590
  19,465
  20,387
  21,357
  22,379
  23,455
  24,586
  25,777
  27,030
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,320
  7,488
  7,679
  7,895
  8,133
  8,395
  8,679
  8,988
  9,320
  9,677
  10,029
  10,436
  10,869
  11,330
  11,818
  12,336
  12,884
  13,464
  14,077
  14,724
  15,406
  16,126
  16,884
  17,684
  18,526
  19,412
  20,345
  21,327
  22,360
  23,446
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,273
  1,305
  1,337
  1,371
  1,405
  1,440
  1,476
  1,513
  1,551
  1,590
  1,630
  1,670
  1,712
  1,755
  1,799
  1,844
  1,890
  1,937
  1,986
  2,035
  2,086
  2,138
  2,192
  2,246
  2,303
  2,360
  2,419
  2,480
  2,542
  2,605
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,392
  8,593
  8,793
  9,016
  9,266
  9,538
  9,835
  10,155
  10,501
  10,871
  11,267
  11,659
  12,106
  12,581
  13,085
  13,617
  14,180
  14,774
  15,401
  16,063
  16,759
  17,492
  18,264
  19,076
  19,930
  20,829
  21,772
  22,764
  23,807
  24,902
  26,051
Operating income, $m
  -152
  -188
  -194
  -198
  -198
  -196
  -191
  -184
  -174
  -161
  -145
  -97
  -75
  -51
  -23
  8
  42
  79
  121
  166
  215
  269
  327
  389
  456
  529
  607
  690
  780
  876
  978
EBITDA, $m
  -40
  -70
  -74
  -75
  -73
  -68
  -60
  -49
  -35
  -18
  2
  25
  52
  81
  115
  151
  192
  236
  285
  337
  394
  456
  523
  595
  672
  754
  843
  938
  1,040
  1,148
  1,264
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  152
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  266
  281
  296
Earnings before tax, $m
  -239
  -252
  -261
  -266
  -270
  -271
  -270
  -266
  -260
  -252
  -241
  -199
  -183
  -165
  -144
  -120
  -94
  -64
  -31
  6
  45
  89
  136
  188
  244
  304
  369
  439
  514
  595
  682
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  12
  24
  37
  51
  66
  82
  100
  119
  139
  161
  184
Net income, $m
  -199
  -252
  -261
  -266
  -270
  -271
  -270
  -266
  -260
  -252
  -241
  -199
  -183
  -165
  -144
  -120
  -94
  -64
  -31
  4
  33
  65
  100
  137
  178
  222
  269
  321
  376
  435
  498

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  70
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,564
  2,544
  2,602
  2,669
  2,744
  2,827
  2,919
  3,018
  3,126
  3,242
  3,366
  3,499
  3,641
  3,792
  3,953
  4,124
  4,304
  4,496
  4,698
  4,912
  5,137
  5,376
  5,627
  5,891
  6,170
  6,464
  6,773
  7,099
  7,441
  7,802
  8,181
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,494
  2,544
  2,602
  2,669
  2,744
  2,827
  2,919
  3,018
  3,126
  3,242
  3,366
  3,499
  3,641
  3,792
  3,953
  4,124
  4,304
  4,496
  4,698
  4,912
  5,137
  5,376
  5,627
  5,891
  6,170
  6,464
  6,773
  7,099
  7,441
  7,802
  8,181
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.305
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
  3.304
Average production assets, $m
  1,242
  1,269
  1,298
  1,332
  1,369
  1,411
  1,456
  1,506
  1,559
  1,617
  1,679
  1,746
  1,817
  1,892
  1,972
  2,057
  2,147
  2,243
  2,344
  2,450
  2,563
  2,682
  2,807
  2,939
  3,078
  3,225
  3,379
  3,542
  3,713
  3,892
  4,081
Working capital, $m
  276
  487
  499
  512
  526
  542
  559
  578
  599
  621
  645
  671
  698
  727
  758
  790
  825
  862
  900
  941
  984
  1,030
  1,078
  1,129
  1,182
  1,239
  1,298
  1,360
  1,426
  1,495
  1,568
Total debt, $m
  1,300
  1,271
  1,320
  1,376
  1,440
  1,510
  1,587
  1,670
  1,761
  1,859
  1,963
  2,075
  2,195
  2,322
  2,458
  2,601
  2,753
  2,914
  3,085
  3,265
  3,455
  3,655
  3,867
  4,090
  4,324
  4,572
  4,832
  5,106
  5,395
  5,698
  6,017
Total liabilities, $m
  2,171
  2,142
  2,191
  2,247
  2,311
  2,381
  2,458
  2,541
  2,632
  2,730
  2,834
  2,946
  3,066
  3,193
  3,329
  3,472
  3,624
  3,785
  3,956
  4,136
  4,326
  4,526
  4,738
  4,961
  5,195
  5,443
  5,703
  5,977
  6,266
  6,569
  6,888
Total equity, $m
  393
  402
  411
  422
  434
  447
  461
  477
  494
  512
  532
  553
  575
  599
  625
  652
  680
  710
  742
  776
  812
  849
  889
  931
  975
  1,021
  1,070
  1,122
  1,176
  1,233
  1,293
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,564
  2,544
  2,602
  2,669
  2,745
  2,828
  2,919
  3,018
  3,126
  3,242
  3,366
  3,499
  3,641
  3,792
  3,954
  4,124
  4,304
  4,495
  4,698
  4,912
  5,138
  5,375
  5,627
  5,892
  6,170
  6,464
  6,773
  7,099
  7,442
  7,802
  8,181
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.308
  3.160
  3.210
  3.260
  3.320
  3.380
  3.440
  3.500
  3.570
  3.630
  3.690
  3.750
  3.820
  3.880
  3.930
  3.990
  4.050
  4.100
  4.160
  4.210
  4.260
  4.300
  4.350
  4.390
  4.440
  4.480
  4.520
  4.550
  4.590
  4.620
  4.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.130
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -199
  -252
  -261
  -266
  -270
  -271
  -270
  -266
  -260
  -252
  -241
  -199
  -183
  -165
  -144
  -120
  -94
  -64
  -31
  4
  33
  65
  100
  137
  178
  222
  269
  321
  376
  435
  498
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  112
  118
  120
  123
  125
  128
  131
  135
  139
  143
  147
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  196
  206
  215
  226
  236
  248
  260
  272
  285
Funds from operations, $m
  -320
  -134
  -140
  -144
  -145
  -143
  -138
  -131
  -122
  -110
  -95
  -77
  -56
  -33
  -6
  24
  57
  93
  133
  175
  212
  253
  296
  343
  393
  447
  506
  568
  635
  707
  783
Change in working capital, $m
  -200
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
Cash from operations, $m
  -120
  -144
  -151
  -157
  -159
  -159
  -156
  -150
  -142
  -132
  -118
  -102
  -83
  -62
  -37
  -9
  22
  56
  94
  135
  169
  207
  248
  292
  340
  391
  446
  506
  570
  638
  711
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -196
  -206
  -215
  -226
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -272
New CAPEX, $m
  -71
  -28
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
Cash from investing activities, $m
  6
  -115
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -328
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -398
  -419
  -440
  -461
Free cash flow, $m
  -114
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -290
  -296
  -300
  -302
  -301
  -299
  -294
  -286
  -276
  -264
  -249
  -232
  -212
  -189
  -163
  -136
  -115
  -91
  -65
  -36
  -5
  29
  67
  107
  151
  198
  249
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  187
  41
  49
  56
  63
  70
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  127
  135
  144
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  211
  223
  235
  247
  260
  274
  288
  303
  319
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  261
  270
  277
  282
  284
  284
  282
  277
  270
  261
  220
  206
  189
  169
  147
  122
  94
  63
  30
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  185
  302
  319
  333
  345
  354
  361
  366
  368
  368
  366
  332
  326
  316
  304
  291
  274
  255
  233
  210
  192
  201
  211
  223
  235
  247
  260
  274
  288
  303
  319
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  44
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  109
  146
  187
  230
  277
  327
  381
  439
  502
  569
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  255
  -261
  -270
  -277
  -282
  -284
  -284
  -282
  -277
  -270
  -261
  -220
  -206
  -189
  -169
  -147
  -122
  -94
  -63
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -217
  -220
  -224
  -226
  -226
  -223
  -218
  -211
  -201
  -189
  -174
  -157
  -137
  -114
  -88
  -60
  -28
  7
  40
  42
  72
  107
  145
  186
  230
  278
  330
  385
  445
  509
Discount rate, %
 
  11.60
  12.18
  12.79
  13.43
  14.10
  14.80
  15.55
  16.32
  17.14
  18.00
  18.90
  19.84
  20.83
  21.87
  22.97
  24.12
  25.32
  26.59
  27.92
  29.31
  30.78
  32.32
  33.93
  35.63
  37.41
  39.28
  41.25
  43.31
  45.47
  47.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -194
  -175
  -156
  -137
  -117
  -98
  -79
  -63
  -48
  -36
  -26
  -18
  -12
  -7
  -4
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  69.9
  48.6
  33.8
  23.6
  16.6
  11.7
  8.4
  6.1
  4.5
  3.4
  2.7
  2.1
  1.8
  1.5
  1.3
  1.2
  1.1
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0
  1.0

Global Partners LP is a midstream logistics and marketing company. It is engaged in the purchasing, selling, storing and logistics of transporting petroleum and related products, including gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, distillates, residual oil, renewable fuels, crude oil, natural gas and propane. Its segments include Wholesale, Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations and Commercial. In Wholesale segment, the Company engages in the logistics of selling, gathering, storage and transportation of refined petroleum products, renewable fuels, crude oil and propane. In Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations segment, gasoline distribution includes sales of branded and unbranded gasoline to gasoline station operators and sub-jobbers. The Commercial segment includes sales and deliveries to end user customers in the public sector and to commercial and industrial end users of unbranded gasoline, home heating oil, diesel, kerosene, residual oil, bunker fuel and natural gas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Global Partners (GLP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -20.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio -0
LT Debt to Equity 260.8%
Total Debt to Equity 330.8%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital -11.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Equity -38.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Asset Turnover 3.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 6.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
EBITDA Margin -0.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Operating Margin -1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Net Profit Margin -2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Payout Ratio -31.7%

GLP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GLP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8240 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Global Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Global Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GLP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.6%, whose default value for GLP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Global Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Global Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GLP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1242 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GLP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Global Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Global Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GLP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GLP are equal to 15.1%.

Life of production assets of 14.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Global Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GLP is equal to 5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $393 million for Global Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.995 million for Global Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Global Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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Financial statements of GLP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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